Using an army and luck to reach critical mass
This post is going to explain the importance of your product reaching critical mass. When I say “product”, I mean an actual product you’re selling, or simply a website or blog. When I’m talking about critical mass, I’m describing the point at which your product becomes viral, sometimes known as the network effect. This should be a lesson to anyone thinking of creating their own product or service.

Above, you’ll see the typical technology adoption bell curve. What you need to realize is that you’re starting on the left, and you’re trying to get up the hill. Do you think it’s easy? Well, judging by Youtube, twitter, milliondollarhomepage, Digg, or myspace, it must be easy!
The truth is, you should have a path to success. Here are just a couple of paths that have worked for other products:
Hopefully I’m making the situation look difficult. I couldn’t find any concrete numbers, but you can be sure that more than half of online businesses fail within the first couple of years. That includes well-funded businesses. If you expect to start the next Fog Creek Software while working part time in the evenings, you need to have a plan.
The best advice I can give you is to do whatever it takes to get your product into the hands of as many people as possible. It might mean making partnerships with someone of influence, or it might mean creating a viral marketing campaign. It might also mean that you’ll have to give your product away for free, build up your army of followers, and then invent another great product. If you already have a product with a good user base, you’re probably already in good shape. If you are just starting out, don’t think that people will magically find you, unless you’re counting on the “lucky” path I described.




