I know ARG is a dreadful pollster, but this analysis by one of their guys is really interesting and uses turnout data v. election results, so I think it might hold up.

""A Surprise About Obama, Clinton, and Turnout"

Conventional wisdom has it that Barack Obama's primary victories are based on his ability to increase turnout.

A look at what happens when voter turnout increases in the primaries proves that this notion is wrong. In fact, Obama has had his greatest primary (and caucus) victories when turnouts have been low."

Cultural attitudes shape voter attitudes, and the urbane Swarthmore educated Dukakis and Yalie, John Kerry, lost handily in middle America.  Cultural issues have always been a part of the American political landscape, emerging, at times, in starkly partisan alignments.

Since the Civil Rights revolution of the 1960's and the Vietnam War, cultural elites have trended Democratic, with many populist lower income whites often moving into the Republican column.  Southern Presidential nominees, with histories of tapping rural voters, have often kept lower income whites in the Democratic camp, while nominees more steeped in academia have faltered.

Barrack Obama is a quintessential cultural liberal - the candidate of Hyde Park, the University of Chicago and Harvard.  Educated upscale voters from both parties, as well as independents of similar backgrounds, identify with his style and rhetoric.  Blue collar voters aren't so sure.

Exit polls in West Virginia showed that two thirds of Clinton supporters were unwilling to commit to Obama in the fall - and that's just among Democrats!  With an economy perceived to be failing, these voters should be easy prey to ANY Democrat, but they're not.  Herein lies the key for the McCain campaign, and potentially for alert Republican Congressional candidates.

Over the last twelve years, partisan alignments have moved away from wealth and economics to cultural and social issues.  Some of the wealthiest precincts in America, from McLean, Virginia to Beverly Hills; from Potomac, Maryland to Beacon Hill; from Newtrier to Shaker Heights, voted for John Kerry by substantial margins.  But Harlan County (Bloody Harlan), Kentucky, Bluefield, West Virginia and most of Appalachia voted overwhelmingly for Bush.

[. . .]

I point this out because Obama's appeal is to the liberal cultural base of the Democratic Party, not to its liberal economic base.  His connection to high income suburbs, the granola belt and college towns, is strong, but his connection to poorer whites, rural voters and other voters who may be susceptible to the Democrats' message on the economy is not yet demonstrated.  Conservative value voters are a long way from being sold on Obama, even while they feel pinched by global trade, a soft housing market and high gas prices.  But Republicans have to hold these voters to have any chance in 2008.

Reason Magazine - Hit & Run > Question Time With the Republican President Who Will Appoint Democrats and Reject the Unitary Executive

I think it's brilliant for McCain to claim to introduce this.  It should help put to rest the claims he is too old to lead.  A raucous question time should show how alert the guy actually is.

I would really like to see Clinton and Obama match fire with fire.

I can't even tell how angry I am right now.

Obama supporters need to put a sock in it right now.