Having dropped two of three from the Mets this week, the Phils have now seen their NL East lead completely evaporate and now find themselves a game behind New York and just a half-game above the Fish.

Since an excellent start that saw the Phillies at 39-26 in early June, the team has sputtered, going just 15-22. If 90 wins is the magic number to make the playoffs this season – and with St. Louis still two and a half games ahead for the NL Wild Card lead it would seem that many victories will be a necessity – Philly needs to play .600 ball (36-24) from here on out to achieve that goal.

The offense continues to shine, ranking second in the NL in runs and slugging (yet surprisingly just eighth in team BA), but the pitching has been middling at best, currently eighth in OPS against and in WHIP.

Although So Taguchi grounded out Thursday in his pinch-hitting assignment, he’s gotten off the schneid recently, and could emerge with some value should injury strike the deep Philly outfield. Relegated to a very bit role this season, Taguchi failed to record a successful pinch hit until Tuesday, when his two-run double tied the game and helped complete a tremendous comeback win for the Phils. Taguchi has been in manager Charlie Manuel’s doghouse, but with bench coach Jimy Williams handling the team after Manuel had been ejected, Taguchi got his chance and delivered. Remember that last year he led all of baseball with a .406 BA as a pinch hitter, but this season he’s been so bad that, at the age of 39, looked to be ready to pack it in. It’s been a long time since Taguchi was someone worth considering for fantasy purposes, and it’s going to take an injury to provide him with any real PT, but with hits in three of his last four at bats before Thursday, he’s at least working his way out of the doghouse.

He slowed a bit in June, but with six homers and a .318 BA in July, including hits in six of his last seven games, Pat Burrell’s career year has continued. Having already reached 25 homers for the sixth time in his career, things are going so well for Pat the Bat that he’s recently been shifted from fifth to third in the revamped Philly lineup, with Chase Utley moving up to the two-hole and Shane Victorino dropping to sixth. This should mean plenty more RBI chances, but note that over the last three years, Burrell has hit only .240 as the number three hitter. During that period, he’s enjoyed the most success as the No. 6 man in the Phils lineup, batting .316 and slugging .616. By the way, as impressed as we were last year with his improved patience, he’s been even better this season.

Dropping in the batting order hasn’t seemed to have affected Victorino so far, as he’s hit safely in six straight games. The way things are going for him now, it makes more sense to have him batting lower in the order. Victorino is suddenly bashing the ball, with five July homers compared to four total at the end of June, and he isn’t stealing bases (just two this month). But with a BA over .300 this month, I like the RBI possibilities he brings to the table suddenly. Of course, that’s not why you drafted the speedster, is it? But hey, if he isn’t swiping bags, I’m sure you won’t moan about getting some surprise pop from him. By the way, despite his injury and awful start this year, how consistent has Victorino been? Since becoming a more or less full-time player starting in 2006, check out his season OPS totals: 760, 770 and 765.

Joe Blanton, who we’ve been waiting to be moved since the preseason, certainly didn’t do much in his first start as a Phillie to make NL-only owners jump all over him, did he? Tuesday’s outing was pretty ugly, in fact, although with the Phils coming back for a dramatic win, the focus was taken off his beating. Blanton seems to be getting worse as the season has gone on, but I do believe that once he adjusts to the NL, and understands how to treat the bottom of the order, he’ll put up better results. He was definitely helped by pitching in Oakland, but Citizen’s Bank Ballpark has actually been fairly friendly to pitchers this year, and I really believe that Blanton will be able to reduce his home runs allowed by pitching there. I’m expecting him to rack up more wins in the second half, and record an ERA in the low 4s. If that interests you, keep an eye on his waiver wire status in your league.

I really like the idea of Utley going back to the two-hole. In recent years, he’s had more success there than in any other batting spot and with him slumping badly now, this may be just the ticket to get him back to his 2007 performance levels. How bad a year would Utley be having if he hadn’t had that unbelievable April? He’s batting just .262 since May 1. Okay, so he’s 0-for-12 in the three games since moving up in the order – not exactly inspiring confidence in my theory – but don’t worry, RotoRob says this is the right move to get him going. Make it so.

Ryan Howard took an 0-for-3 Thursday, fanning three times to run his total to 135 Ks in 389 at bats (on pace for a career worst 214 Ks), but don’t sweat it. He came in with a six-game hitting streak and has been really grooving in July with a .320 BA, nine homers and 20 RBI. Remember the second half he put up during his MVP season in 2006? I’m not saying he’ll duplicate that .355, 30 HR, 78 RBI showing, but you know what he’s capable of. I expect RyHo to be one of the NL’s top performers from here on out.

July 24th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, RotoRob, Team report . Author: RotoRob . Comments: No Comments

Fat chance that Baltimore defensive stalwart Ray Lewis will soon join offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden on the sidelines as a retired Raven.

While Ogden finally decided last month that a painful bout of turf toe would help spell the end of his NFL career, Lewis said this week that “football is just getting started for me.â€

It’s great news for the Ravens, seeking to rebound after a nightmare 2007 season saw them bottom out at 5-11.

While discussions regarding Lewis’ future with the team – he’ll be a free agent after 2008 – are still ongoing, he reminded us that he’s never held out from camp or had a contract dispute, so regardless of the off-the-field stuff, you can expect the two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year to be on the field, ready to reap havoc like only he can.

While Lewis has only managed to play in 34 of the team’s last 48 games and his tackle numbers have been dwindling in recent years, he really upped his commitment to conditioning this offseason, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him show some vintage form.

Rookies and quarterbacks arrived at training camp for the Ravens Monday, and Wednesday, the vets will follow, and yes, that includes Lewis, about to launch into his 13th season – nine of which have seen him named a Pro Bowler.

So while the 33-year-old Lewis, owner of over 2,000 career tackles, says he’s ready to play for another three or four years at least, the real story of the Raven camp will be the quarterback controversy.

Plenty has changed since we wrote our Raven team capsule on March 15. Now that Steve McNair is retired, will veteran Kyle Boller emerge as the No. 1 man in B-More? Is rookie Joe Flacco, finally signed and definitely the QB of the future for the Ravens, ready for a baptism by fire? Or will sophomore Troy Smith be given a longer look this year?

We’re probably realistically looking at a battle between Boller and the rookie Flacco. As Andy so aptly put, “Boller is Boller; he’s not going to turn into Joe Montana.†So the key question is whether Flacco is ready or not. All eyes must watch him very carefully during training camp and the exhibition schedule.

From a fantasy perspective, because of the solid receiving options, either could prove to be decent backups for your team. Boller definitely is still young enough to improve, but how much? I’m not bullish on those prospects. So that leaves the untested Flacco, and all bets are off in that scenario.

July 21st, 2008
Categories: FOOTBALL, RotoRob, Rumours . Author: RotoRob . Comments: No Comments

While Tim McLeod regales us with his Mid-Season Awards specials, including Wednesday’s National League Report, and the American League report, which will follow either later Thursday or Friday, I thought I’d weigh in with some of my own observations from a fantastic first half of baseball.

I bet you thought you were going to get more out of Vladimir Guerrero, a likely second round pick, than what he’s delivered so far. As a rookie, he posted a line of .302/.350/.483, which until now, represented the worst totals of his career. Currently, Vladdy is at .286/.348/.483, and he entered the break in a nasty slump. He’s still trying to shake off a sup par April (.272/.353/.437) and horrid May (.219/.260/.417). Can he do it? I think so, especially since he started heating up back in May. Guerrero has slugged .570 after the break compared to .541 beforehand over the last three years, so I think he’s a good buy-low candidate.

The Giants are doing better than expected, but you can’t credit Barry Zito. The team is 5-14 when he takes the mound. Opponents are batting .299 against him compared to his previous worst of .263. Just imagine what San Francisco could have done with that $126 million they handed this stiff. Zito has been better in his two July starts, so he might be worth another look in NL-only leagues, but the fact that he’s been a better first-half pitcher in recent years does not bode well for a recovery in 2008.

Talk about not making contact, have you seen that in almost exactly half of Jack Cust’s plate appearances (181 of 364), he’s either walked or struck out? After scuffling badly in June and most of July so far, Cust was heating up before the break, so could be worth taking a flyer on in an AL-only league. Once Frank Thomas returns, Cust will head back out to left field, and I see him as merely a short-term pickup; I expect him to lose PT to Matt Murton in the second half, assuming Murton starts hitting.

Rockie starters have combined for 26 wins and 11 of those belong to Aaron Cook, who authored three shutout frames in Tuesday’s All-Star game. As solid as Cook has been this month, he may still be available in more shallow leagues, but not for long.

Josh Hamilton, who cemented his place in history at the Home Run Derby, leads the AL with 95 RBI. His closest competitor is Carlos Quentin, who has 70. A 25-RBI lead at the break? Are you freaking kidding me? Hamilton is on pace to drive in 162 runs. Uh, that’ll do.

Bengie Molina and Geovany Soto are tied as the major’s leading run producers at catcher with 56 RBI apiece. I bet you all saw that coming. Consider this, however. Soto has struck out 84 times; Molina has whiffed just 23 times. I guess he took replacing Barry Bonds as the Giants’ clean-up hitter pretty seriously.

Speaking of Quentin, he entered the season with 14 homers and 63 RBI in 136 career games. This year, he’s smashed 22 dingers and driven in 70 in just 91 games. Can you say breakout, baby?

Manny Corpas is pitching much better lately, and very much deserves consideration for your NL-only bullpen, but after his sensational breakout season in 2007 that likely had him drafted by the 10th round this year, he’s saved just four games in ten tries. Even with Brian Fuentes on the trading block, I doubt Corpas gets the closing gig back. Taylor Buchholz deserves first crack at it once Fuentes is dealt.

Pop quick: name the only American League hitter who has an OPS of over 1000 at the break. A-Rod? Nope. Hamilton? Wrong again, but getting closer. It’s none other than Josh’s teammate, the fiery Milton Bradley, whose 1049 OPS ranks 65 points ahead of his closest competitor, J.D. Drew. Raise your hand if you saw this pair ranking one-two in OPS in the AL.

Talk about developing power. Let’s take a look at Adrian Gonzalez’s homer and RBI totals since he entered the league in 2004: 1-7, 6-17, 24-82 and 30-100 last year. This season, he’s already mashed 22 homers and driven in 71, fourth best in the NL. That puts him on pace for 38 homers and 121 RBI. I remember when Gonzalez was a prospect in the Marlin system and the scouts kept saying the power will catch up to his average later on. Uh, ya. They nailed that one. You may be wondering how he’s been this productive on such a weak-hitting team. Well, while Gonzalez is hitting .276 overall, he’s ratcheted that up with runners on (.287) and with runners in scoring position (.283).

How about the emergence this year of Mariner reliever Brandon Morrow, currently handling the closing reins with J.J. Putz on the DL? He recovered from his first blown saves this week with a perfect save against the Royals. Talk about dominant – he’s fanned 42 batters in 30 2/3 IP, while giving up just 16 hits. Opponents are batting .147 against Morrow. Other than some mild gopheritis, this kid has stud closer written all over him. No wonder I had some owner in my league sniffing around about Morrow.

Closing in on 40, Jim Edmonds is done, right? Sure looked that way when he toiled for the Padres, when, through 26 games, he had managed just one homer, six RBI, a .178 BA and a .233 slugging percentage. He’s been reborn at Wrigley, and in 44 games as a Cub, Edmonds has nine jacks, 29 RBI, a .269 BA, and .552 slugging percentage. Can you explain to me why he’s still barely owned in fantasy circles? NL-only owners need to grab this dude.

While Ian Kinsler took baby steps in his growth last year, even regressing in some areas, he’s taken giant leaps in 2008. His 134 hits at the break leads all AL players by ten; his 84 runs is 17 ahead of the competition. By the way, Kinsler is on pace for 229 hits and 144 runs.

How bad a start to the season did Roy Oswalt have? Consider that over his last eight appearances, he’s lowered his ERA every time out, dropping it over a run from 5.61 to 4.56, yet he’s still over a run higher than his worst season ever (3.49 in 2004).

July 17th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 1 Comment

There was a familiar face taking the mound Friday for the Peoria Chiefs, the Cubbies’ Class-A Midwest League affiliate. Reliever Scott Eyre, rehabbing a groin injury he suffered last month, was touched up for two hits and an earned run in one inning in his first rehab appearance. Sunday, he got ripped for four hits and two earned runs in an inning and a third of work, so while the Cubs expect him to return after the All-Star break, it doesn’t look like we’ll see a new and improved Eyre. In fact, he’s been getting progressively worse since arriving at Wrigley three years ago, and is a complete non-fantasy factor at this point. Interestingly, however, Eyre became just the fourth Cub to make a rehab appearance at Peoria’s Elfstrom Stadium since 2005. Scott Williamson, Wade Miller and Juan Mateo are the others, and we’ve seen how well their careers have gone since then, so let’s hope that’s not some foreshadowing for the 36-year-old lefty, who has never really been the same since leaving the Giants.

Lefty Scott Mitchinson, selected as a Midwest League All-Star, got some good news this week when an MRI on his injured elbow showed no structural damage. He’s been cleared to start rehab, and that’s great news considering the breakout season he was enjoying for Kane County. Originally signed by the Phillies in 2003 from Australia, the 23-year-old was taken by the A’s in the Minor League Phase of the Rule 5 Draft last year, and after a strong 2007 at three levels, he really has put himself on the map this season. Through 71 innings, Mitchinson has given up just 54 hits, one homer and 11 walks, while fanning 70. Overall, he’s 5-3, 1.90, and if he can regain his health soon, could be in line for a promotion to High-A before season’s end.

Tyson Ross, the A’s second round pick in last month’s draft, is also dealing with injury issues. He was put on the DL July 1 because of his shoulder, but also was given the go-ahead for rehab after a clean MRI. The 21-year-old righty had only made two professional appearances so far, but was impressive, giving up just two hits and one earned run, walking none and striking out five in five innings. Ross was a Pac 10 All-Star at California last year when he went 6-6, 2.49 with 120 strikeouts and just 39 walks in 115 2/3 IP.

The A’s look like they have another solid bat on their hands in Corey Brown, a first round supplemental pick (59th overall) in last year’s draft. The 22-year-old outfielder was leading Kane County in homers (14), RBI (48), was second in steals (12) and was batting .270 with 40 walks in 84 games before getting promoted to High-A Stockton last week. In four games in the Cal League, Brown is not looking overmatched at all, batting .333 with six runs, a homer and four RBI. Keep an eye on this kid, keeper league owners.

Talk about the fast track, have you seen what Ben Revere, the Twins’ first rounder from last season, has done? The 20-year-old outfielder is batting .401 through 59 games with 20 walks and 28 steals. Talk about top-of-the-order skills. This is definitely Minnesota’s centrefielder of the future, and keeper league owners would be wise to jump on him soon. A kid with a batting eye like that doesn’t come around very often.

The Tigers prospect cupboard has been accused of being fairly barren, but they’ve hit a home run this year with 24-year-old righty Alfredo Figaro. He struggled at High-A after a mid-season promotion in 2007, but he’s dominating at Class-A this year, going 11-2, 1.76 with 86 strikeouts against just 29 walks. Opponents are batting a mere .200 against Figaro. Still, because he took a step backward this year, I’ll be more excited when I see him doing this in High-A ball or higher.

Another speedster who has consistently put up high averages is Adrian Ortiz, a 21-year-old outfielder taken in the fifth round last year by the Royals. He’s batting .316 through 91 games with 27 steals, but unlike Revere, Ortiz’s command of the strike zone isn’t advanced, so I worry that he’ll struggle as he moves up. He’s young enough to adjust, so at least bears watching over the long term.

Another young Tiger hurler who’s taken a big step up this year is 21-year-old southpaw Jonathan Kibler. Just a 30th round pick in 2007, Kibler has already proved to be a bit of a diamond in the rough, enjoying a strong pro debut last year, split between the GCL and NYPL. This season he’s been even more impressive, going 8-3, 1.99 through 15 starts. In 99 2/3 IP, Kibler has been virtually unhittable (62 hits allowed), while showing tremendous command (81 Ks to 21 BBs).

Another Midwest League kid I’m keeping my eye on is outfielder Engel Beltre. Originally signed by the BoSox out of the Dominican Republic, Beltre was dealt to Texas in last season’s Eric Gagne deal. This 18-year-old is having no problem in Class-A, an impressive feat. Through 87 games, he’s batting .287 with 19 doubles, eight triples and seven homers. He’s shown some speed, but like many youngsters, needs to learn to take a walk. Still, Beltre is heating up, with four straight multi-hit games, so I think the Rangers could have a future star in the making here.

I also like the development shown this year by 21-year-old righty Jackson Quezada, signed by the Padres from the Dominican in 2003. He’s looking like a potential future closer, having saved 16 games in 40 appearances for Fort Wayne. He’s certainly been dominant enough, fanning 48 in 43 2/3 IP, with just 31 hits and only one homer allowed while compiling a very sweet 2.27 ERA. Quezada looks ready to move up to High-A ball shortly.

July 14th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Minor Matters, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: No Comments

With the major league trading deadline less than three weeks away, the prudent fantasy owner will pay closer attention to rumours and news than normal. After all, moves made in the real world can have a huge impact on your team’s fortunes. With this in mind, let’s look at some moves already made and those that may still be coming.

Although he struggled with his control, owners had to be pretty happy with C.C. Sabathia’s first effort as a Brewer. He’s scheduled to pitch on regular rest the next five times through the rotation before he gets an extra day of rest. It blows me away how quickly the big man put an awful start to the season in the rear view mirror, getting progressively sharper as the season has gone along. And even though Miller Park is slightly less of a pitcher’s park than Progressive Field, leaving Cleveland shouldn’t alter that trend at all, as Sabathia has been a slightly better pitcher away from home over the last three seasons, plus now he has the advantage of avoiding the DH.

The Mets are seeking outfield help, and the name most closely associated with them is Seattle’s Raul Ibanez. Arizona is another team that covets Ibanez, who has slumped lately, perhaps with all this trade talk. At the age of 36, he appears to be in decline that last couple of years, but hitting in the middle of a weak Seattle lineup has definitely limited his RBI chances. If he winds up in Shea, he’ll be a solid NL-only pickup, but I don’t expect him to turn around a season marred by inconsistency. However, if Ibanez lands in ‘Zona, I do expect him to pick things up significantly. The Brewers and Dodgers are also possibilities here.

Jason Bay is sure to draw plenty of interest, and his recent hot streak is making him an even hotter commodity. The Mets, Dodgers, possibly the Yankees, definitely the Rays and perhaps even the Angels could all vie for Bay. He slumped somewhat in June, but has picked up the pace somewhat in July, especially lately as mentioned. Improved contact rates have really helped Bay rebound after a down year in 2007. I’m not sure what to expect from Bay in a different park, but consider that 14 of his 19 dingers have come at home, where he’s hit .305 vs. under .270 on the road. But the kicker is that PNC Park is the absolute worst hitter’s park in the game this season.

Xavier Nady is another Buc outfielder sure to draw plenty of interest, but I doubt both he and Bay are dealt. Nady is enjoying a career year, but has been inconsistent lately. He slumped in June thank to a shoulder injury, but started this month on fire. In the past week, however, he’s scuffling again. Finally given a chance to play every day, Nady has proved to be highly productive. The same teams that are after Bay will likely target Nady as Plan B, but consider that he’s hit .340 away from home and .294 at PNC, a trend which suggests that he will definitely benefit from a move.

Another outfielder who will draw interest is Jose Guillen. About as hot as anyone last month, Guillen is slumping right now, so that’s not exactly making teams salivate over him. I expect similar batting averages from him if he moves from Kauffman, but look for a slight spike in power.

An even more interesting outfielder who’s name has been bandied about is Matt Holliday. I really doubt the Mets would have the pieces to make this happen, even if the Rox decide to tank things and offer their stud around. Even in the post-humidor world, Coors remains among the top hitter’s parks in the Show, so almost any move would likely hurt Holliday’s value.

Seattle will part with Erik Bedard, but he’ll have to prove his shoulder is sound first. The Phillies desperately need rotation help, so are sure to move to the top of the line for the Canadian lefty’s services. Believe it or not, CBP is not playing like much more of a hitter’s park this year than Safeco, but Bedard’s homers allowed will surely rise with a move to the Phils. That would likely be offset by a switch of leagues, however. The stumbling block here may be the Phillies’ reluctance to part with Carlos Carrasco, one of the few pitching prospects they currently have in the upper levels of the minors.

Philly will also look at A.J. Burnett, should the Jays opt to move him (which they better do). Burnett was rolling but is back to the drawing board in his last two starts. Wednesday, he had an emergency root canal, but took the mound that night anyways. It wasn’t the wisest of choices, and he continued to get drilled, this time by the Orioles. Burnett has been vastly better on the road, and with Rogers Centre being fairly neutral to pitchers this year, I think he’ll likely benefit from a move. The kicker here is a clause in Burnett’s contract that allows him to opt out after this season.

If Bedard is damaged goods, teams seeking pitching may opt to lure Jarrod Washburn away from the Mariners instead. He’s looked pretty good lately, making him a nice AL-only pickup, so keep your eyes on him. The Yanks could be interested.

The Cubs have to be pleased with the early dividends from their deal to acquire Rich Harden. He tossed 5 1/3 shutout frames Saturday, fanning ten batters. Harden may not maintain that level of success, given that he enjoyed the advantages of pitching in a great pitcher’s park (1.79 ERA at home), and now moves to a hitter’s paradise. That will be offset somewhat by a spike in Ks from moving to the NL, however.

Tim Redding, who has pitched extremely well his last two times out, will draw interest. While he hasn’t been quite as good as last year, he’s been healthy, and that’s always been a stumbling block. Redding struggled in June, but has righted the ship and looks like a fine NL-only pick up right now. Although Nationals Park has played somewhat neutral this year, I expect Redding to get a boost from a move, as he’s been a better road pitcher this year.

Other players who may be on the move soon include: Tony Clark, Brian Fuentes, Adrian Beltre, Paul Lo Duca, Felipe Lopez, Odalis Perez, Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Homer Bailey, Roy Oswalt, Mark Loretta, Darin Erstad, Damaso Marte, Jack Wilson, Randy Wolf, Greg Maddux, Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff, Kevin Millar, Jay Payton, Chad Bradford, Casey Blake, Paul Byrd, David Dellucci, Jamey Carroll, Mark Grudzielanek, David DeJesus, Ron Mahay, Mark Teixeira, Mike Jacobs, Garrett Atkins, Willy Taveras, Scott Podsednik, Yorvit Torrealba, Matt Herges, Omar Vizquel, Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Huston Street, Joe Blanton, Justin Duchscherer, Eddie Guardado, Frank Catalanotto, Hank Blalock and Milton Bradley.

July 13th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, RotoRob, Rumours . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 2 Comments