Patrick Marleau had a down year, but he’s been pretty good down the stretch and is a proven playoff performer. (Photo by Jon Swenson)

How does one write a playoff primer when spots are still up for grabs and seedings are uncertain? Well, when you have a deadline, you just roll the dice and hope for the best! Still, there are plenty of definite things you can count on if you’re participating in a playoff pool and we’ll focus on those. I’ll also throw in a few nuggets of what-if scenarios but those could all be irrelevant depending on what happens Friday night, Saturday, and when this finally gets posted (probably Saturday). [Editor's note -- oops, make that Sunday due to hangover.]

There are a number of different playoff pool types, and that means that you may get to move players in and out after a round (or in real time) or you may be stuck with your roster from day one. Consider these tips as general and as all-encompassing as possible, and try to apply them with your playoff pool rules in mind.

Tip One: Bet on sure things in net - that means you’re looking at stability, health, and long-term. Try concentrating your picks on the teams you feel have the best shot to go in for the long haul, especially if you feel like they’ll be playing teams that aren’t clean sweeps. That’s right, I said look for teams that can win a tougher series rather than a team looking at a cakewalk - a tougher series means more games means more fantasy points.

Tip Two: Spread out your offense. The playoffs are a time when secondary scoring makes or breaks both Cup contenders and fantasy teams. For example, a lot of people will probably pass over Patrick Marleau because of his pitiful regular season totals, but a quick look shows that he had a respectable past 20 games and he’s one of the leaders in playoff goals over the past three seasons. Similarly, Brad Richards is reliable in the postseason even though he hasn’t been great in Dallas so far; Richards isn’t worth a top pick right now, but he may slide down and be available in later rounds.

Tip Three: Look for proven playoff performers. Hello, Chris Drury. Hello, Jarome Iginla. These are the guys who’ve always stepped up when push comes to shove, and rather than take people with up-and-down playoff records (Joe Thornton, Pavel Datsyuk - two players that have really only had one good playoff season), focus your top picks on guys that have consistently played well when the chips are on the line.

Tip Four: Avoid injury-prone players. Sure, Peter Forsberg is a great playoff performer, but who knows whether or not he’ll play game-to-game. Though, knowing Forsberg, he’ll be in the lineup when it counts, even when he’s not 100 per cent.

Tip Five: Defense wins fantasy leagues. That’s defense as in scoring from blueliners, a rarity in today’s NHL and even scarcer in the playoffs. That’s why a top defenseman should be in your first two picks. Look at Sergei Gonchar, Brian Campbell, Nicklas Lidstrom, Scott Niedermayer, Mark Streit, and guys along those lines.

Tip Six: Take a closer look at goaltending. Bet on a favoured team with a goalie that’s been steady all season long like San Jose’s Evgeni Nabokov versus Detroit’s groin-pull-o-rama Dominik Hasek. Right now, your favourites are San Jose, Detroit, Anaheim, Montreal, and Pittsburgh. Jean-Sebastian Giguere’s battled injuries, Carey Price is untested, and Marc-Andre Fleury can be streaky. Of those goalies, Nabokov is the best bet.

Tip Seven: Use the first round to judge sleepers. Playoffs are a streaky time of year - remember when Alyn McCauley jumped from two-way checker to playoff scoring demon for the Maple Leafs? If someone gets hot, take a gamble - smart risk-taking is the best way to win a playoff pool.

Now, depending on who makes it in the East, we could be in for some wild showdowns. Washington’s one of the hottest teams in the league, and if it plays well against Florida and get a few bounces its way, the Caps could finish as high as seventh. If the Caps make it, they’re playing with enough confidence and swagger to make their players great dark-horse picks, even outside of Alexander Ovechkin.

Also, if Philadelphia makes the playoffs, don’t be fooled by Daniel Briere and his decent point total (check out his awesome -22, though). Briere hasn’t been the same since he lost consistent playing time with Simon Gagne; if you’re taking someone from Philly, a safe sleeper pick is Vaclav Prospal.

As for the Senators, talk about a team in disarray. Not only do they lose one of their best players indefinitely (Daniel Alfredsson), the Sens can’t figure out if they’re awesome or horrible. They could easily drop out in a four-game sweep in the first round or they could make a deep push; that level of uncertainty means that you’ll want to avoid big names like Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley and use your top forward picks elsewhere.

April 6th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: No Comments

Another day, another drama in Leaf Land.

Perhaps the most controversial act of his tenure in Toronto, Mats Sundin gave an indication of what his hockey future was by removing himself from the roster with just a handful of games left and reportedly requesting management make Tomas Kaberle the captain of the Blue and White. While interim GM Cliff Fletcher hasn’t said a word yet, word has already leaked that Sundin passed the metaphorical torch by having a meeting between Fletcher, coach Paul Maurice, and Kaberle before cleaning out his stall.

Right off the bat, all indications are pointing to Kaberle being the next captain of the Maple Leafs. The question must be asked, however, what’s the purpose of this? Why not accept a trade to another team rather than continue to play out the season, only to move on now?

It’s a question that probably won’t be answered immediately as Sundin is reportedly back on a plane to his native Sweden right now.

Looking at past events, one can sense that it’s more about the future than the past. Sundin stayed loyal to Toronto by refusing to waive his no-trade clause — perhaps not so much the franchise, but rather the city, the fans, and his teammates.

For Sundin, the season was essentially over when it became apparent that his team’s late push wouldn’t be enough to make the playoffs. The Leafs were a longshot anyways, but apparently Sundin wanted to give it one last go before calling it a career.

Of course, no one knows exactly what the future will hold for Sundin. Will he retire? Will he pull a Scott Niedermayer? Will he play for a team in Sweden?

On the one hand, Sundin has talked about wanting to finish his career with the Leafs. On the other hand, his skill level and physical conditioning are still in top form, and he could still command a handsome sum for a short-term contract.

Looking at Kaberle, he is in a unique situation, and it seems like Sundin picked this time so that Kaberle could get his feet wet as captain in a high-pressure city like Toronto before embarking on next season’s campaign as the full-fledged captain and identity of the Maple Leafs. After all, Kaberle has gone from the deer-in-the-headlights whipping boy of die-hard Leaf fans to the acknowledged most skilled, most valuable player on the team. While Kaberle has had an A on his jersey for some time, it will be a trying time as he tries to lead a team in transition.

Starting next season, we all knew the Leafs would be different. We all knew that Sundin was an unrestricted free agent and that the team’s core would shift. Is Sundin being noble by trying to give Kaberle a head start on the leadership role or is Sundin taking his proverbial ball (puck) and going home? One thing’s for sure, many a Leaf fan will still feel a fool when the playoffs start in April.

April 1st, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: No Comments

When the Sharks take a bite out of weaker clubs, expect to see Brian Boucher between the pipes.

With just a few weeks left, we’re into the stretch run of the season, and that means it’s purely inter-divisional matchups (minus one Bruins/Devils game). What does this mean from a fantasy perspective? Well, you can make an educated guess as to which goalie will play depending on whether or not the team has already secured their position and whether or not the opponent is out of the playoffs. For example, a San Jose game vs. Dallas would almost certainly be Evgeni Nabokov in net, but if it’s against Los Angeles, look for Brian Boucher to give Nabokov a night off.

On the flip side, for teams out of the playoffs, if players have had nagging injuries, look for them to move forward with rehab or surgery rather than trying to fight through it. Rick DiPietro’s a good example of this, as he’s opting to get surgery now and have a leg up on recovery.

During the Florida Panthers’ recent resurgence, Olli Jokinen’s led the way. One name that might not get much recognition though is Rostislav Olesz. With points in five of the last seven games and a spot on Jokinen’s wing, the 23-year-old former first rounder (2004) is showing signs of why he was drafted so high. Will it be enough to push the Panthers into the playoffs? Here’s thinking probably not, and yet again the Panthers will waste a terrific last stretch of the season.

With Dallas dropping all the way down to fifth place in the West, one has to look at the recent cold streaks of Mike Ribiero and the on-again-off-again season of Brad Richards. Ribiero’s led the Stars since the season opened, but he only has three points in all of March. Richards, who blew away Stars’ fans with a five-point premiere, only has four points in the ensuing seven games. Not surprisingly, this stretch is when Dallas fell from the Pacific lead to the middle of the pack.

The remaining games in Tampa are a tryout for next season, but one player who’s getting the opportunity of a lifetime is Jussi Jokinen. Dallas’ former shootout specialist has found himself on a line with Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis as the Bolts look forward toward next season. After starting off relatively slowly, Jokinen’s adjusted and is currently riding a five-game point streak. His +/- is awful, but so it goes with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Similarly, Jeff Halpern’s gone from a 0.5 point-per-game guy to all sorts of ice time and special teams opportunities in Tampa. It’s moves like this that can help your fantasy team finish strong; a player like Halpern is given the opportunity to play the second-line role rather than being a fourth-line checker. Don’t forget, the former Caps’ captain has had a 20-goal season in his NHL career and might thrive in a second-line role behind Lecavalier. And chances are, Halpern’s still available in your league.

The Peter Forsberg experiment isn’t working out in Colorado. When Forsberg’s been in the lineup, he’s created his share of scoring chances. It’s just that he’s hardly played since returning to Colorado. Whether this is strategically done to make sure he is in prime shape for the playoffs is anyone’s guess, but with Paul Stastny fighting a nasty flu bug and the team needing goals, look for Forsberg to try to play Superman sooner rather than later.

The Week Ahead

March 21st, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 1 Comment

Peter Forsberg isn’t exactly easing back into the NHL.

It’s the week of big returns — Peter Forsberg, Sidney Crosby, the entire San Jose Sharks team. First, let’s start in Denver where Forsberg decided to ease back into things by averaging about 20 minutes a game. While Foppa hasn’t recorded any points in his two games, his speed and vision look to be in game-shape already (however, he sure was sucking wind during the interviews after his debut). The biggest fantasy benefactor to this? It should be Milan Hejduk, whose best years were with Forsberg at centre.

By the way, Forsberg’s timing couldn’t be better with Marek Svatos and Ryan Smyth out. Right now, that means that Paul Stastny is playing with Wojtek Wolski and Andrew Brunette.

As for Crosby, he exploded out of the gate against Tampa with scoring chance after scoring chance, but walked away with just one assist. Since the return of the Pittsburgh captain, the high-flying Penguins have been limited to two goals in each of their two games. With a big game against Alexander Ovechkin and the Washington Caps coming up on Sunday, look for Sid and his buddy Evgeni Malkin to be up in fine form.

Remember when the Sharks were the Stanley Cup contender who couldn’t score? We all know about Jonathan Cheechoo’s resurgence and the acquisition of Brian Campbell, but there’s another layer there for fantasy players to check out. Young Joe Pavelskihas been manning the power play point next to Campbell and has been picking up points as the Sharks started converting on their special teams. Also, Patrick Marleau’s recent return to form means that his linemate Devin Setoguchi has been picking up additional points.

Who is David Booth? For anyone looking for a sleeper pick down the stretch, check out this Florida left winger. Booth’s quietly picked up 20 goals so far in his sophomore season, with the majority of them coming since the new year.

Don’t blame Mike Smith for those Tampa Bay Lightning losses — it’s not like he’s getting a lot of defensive help out there. In fact, Smith hasn’t been getting much offensive support either. However, his acrobatic skills and Marty Turco-like ability to handle the puck mean that the rest of the season is Smith’s tryout to be the starting goalie in Tampa. If you’re looking for a cheap goalie pickup to get some starts, Smith will definitely get his opportunity. It’s up to his teammates to give him some support, though.

This just in: Anaheim’s Corey Perry will be out until the playoffs with a nasty leg laceration. That means that the Ducks, who’ve struggled to score goals lately, will be hoping that young Bobby Ryan can bring more to the table.

While this isn’t really fantasy related, I thought I’d throw it out there — what’s the over/under on the percentage of Leafs’ fans pissed off about their recent winning streak? After all, if you’re not going to make the playoffs, you might as well go for the draft lottery, right? Especially if you’re an aging, slow, expensive team that needs to rebuild. Oh well, Leafs Nation, at least you know that if they got that No. pick, they’d probably trade it away for an over-30 broken down power forward.

The Week Ahead

March 7th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: No Comments

If Brad Richards gets dealt, what will be the fantasy impact?

How will the trade deadline affect your fantasy team? Well, there are two ways to think about it. First off, if your player is, say, Brad Richards and he gets moved, remember these key points: 1. Has the player been slumping or scoring? 2. What quality of linemates is he leaving? 3. What quality of linemates will he be joining? Slumping players who get moved tend to get a little boost right after a trade, and in some cases, achieve instant chemistry with their new team.

The second thing to consider is the indirect effects of a trade. Again, let’s take Richards for an example. If he gets moved to Columbus as is rumoured, Rick Nash’s scoring pace should stay stable or go even higher. That’s not that consequential, as Nash is owned in every fantasy league on the planet. But what about the third guy on the line? Would it be Fredrik Modin, Nikolai Zherdev, or someone else coach Ken Hitchcock experimented with? Whoever it is, there’s a chance that he may be available in your fantasy league. On trade deadline day, think about that domino effect whenever you see a move and make your decisions accordingly.

Sure, there’s all this trade talk going on, but there’s still hockey to be played. Sidney Crosby’s due back pretty soon, and with Evgeni Malkin rocketing up to the top of the scoring race, does that mean Crosby’s return will slow Malkin down? I doubt it; in fact, I think this only gives Pittsburgh more flexibility as Crosby and Malkin had spent some time together on the same line. With Malkin doing everything on his own right now, look for the two to anchor their own lines except during critical times during games. This means that four lucky wingers will get to share time on lines with either Crosby or Malkin, so keep your eye on the situation in Steel City to see who’s skating with who.

Looks like someone finally told Tomas Vanek that he’s getting paid a whole crapload of money. The beleaguered winger has had a pretty good past two weeks with 11 goals. At the same time, the Sabres have been chugging forward in the standings. Will Vanek keep it up? As Vanek goes, so do the Sabres — check out their record when he scores — and since Buffalo seems to have found its groove, look for Vanek to come back down to earth a little bit but still remain fairly hot for the rest of the season. If you’ve been looking to move him, now’s the time as his trade value’s peaking.

Simon Gagne’s shutting it down for the rest of the season, and if you own him in a keeper league, it’s best to make a contingency plan now. Concussions have a scary way of accumulating, and despite Gagne’s talent, there’s no doubt that each concussion suffered will have lingering effects. My suggestion? Hold on to Gagne until next season on IR, then try to move him once he hits a hot streak.

There is still hockey being played in Los Angeles even though the Kings fell off the NHL map a few months ago. One of the guys leading the charge could be a good sleeper pick for anyone down the stretch. Patrick O’Sullivan’s had a good February with 11 points in 10 games. With the Kings playing for next season already, look for O’Sullivan to get more playing time in the last couple of months.

The Week Ahead

February 22nd, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 1 Comment