We’re almost done with the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, but despite the number of 3-1 and 3-2 series, you never want to count anyone out until the series is finally over. However, we can analyze individual play — and see how accurate Ice Chips has been so far.

We wrote: “For example, a lot of people will probably pass over Patrick Marleau because of his pitiful regular season totals, but a quick look shows that he had a respectable past 20 games and he’s one of the leaders in playoff goals over the past three seasons.”

Not a bad one to start with. Not only as Marleau been strong shift-in and shift-out so far against Calgary, he’s also put up considerable numbers every game — and for the first time in his career, he’s looking like he’s worthy of the captain’s C.

Richards hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he’s proved to be much more valuable than his initial few games indicated.

The Rangers didn’t sign Drury to put up 100 points in the regular season; they wanted him to score in the clutch. However, he’s been held off the scoresheet for the majority of the first-round series against New Jersey. The Rangers’ other key signing, Scott Gomez, has fulfilled his promise though.

As for Iginla, he (along with Dion Phaneuf) is really the only reason why the Calgary Flames have put up such a competitive fight against the San Jose Sharks. Every time Iginla touches the puck, something good happens for Calgary. The Calgary media has been quick to point out that his supporting cast hasn’t really done their job, though.

This is true in theory. In execution? Well…Campbell has looked like a deer in headlights at times, Niedermayer’s team preferred sleeping to playing, while Streit and Andrei Markov haven’t done much either. Phaneuf, however, has been a catalyst for Calgary. Surprise defensive standouts include Andrew Ference of Boston and Patrice “Breeze By” Brisebois of Montreal.

As of this writing, Nabokov has been a leader on and off the ice for San Jose with its 3-2 series lead against Calgary. Hasek? He’s played some of the worst hockey of his career (his words, not mine) and lost his starting job to Chris Osgood.

Iginla, Sidney Crosby, Ryane Clowe – which one of these in not like the others? While Clowe is a skilled player, he’s better known as being a big body rather than a scorer. Still, these are the types of players that rise to the occasion during the playoffs. Other notable players who’ve elevated their respective games include Ryan Malone, Mike Knuble, Loui Eriksson, and rookie Brandon Dubinsky.

Whoops.

Cha-ching!

Double cha-ching!

Where do we go from here? It’s difficult to say that Marc-Andre Fleury will put up the same numbers in the second round that he did against Ottawa. The Senators, though extremely talented, lacked focus and passion. Whoever the Penguins play in the conference semis, it’s simply going to be far more difficult than Pittsburgh’s first-round smackdown of Ottawa.

Barring a minor miracle over the next few days, the Philadelphia Flyers will upset the Washington Capitals, and big kudos have to go to the entire team. It’s been a complete effort with diverse scoring and strong defense. Check for grinders that are putting pucks in the net such as the aforementioned Knuble; they may still be available in your league.

And who’s gone pointless so far? Marian Gaborik of Minnesota and Chris Higgins of Montreal. In fact, Montreal’s top performers, including Alexei Kovalev, haven’t done all that well, but its fourth-line grinders have overachieved, making them perfect fantasy sleepers.

And on a final note, what’s powering the New York Rangers? Not Sean Avery, not Gomez, not Henrik Lundqvist…no, the Blueshirts are fueled by the might of Jaromir Jagr’s soul patch.

April 19th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 4 Comments

Chances are you didn’t pick Marc-Andre Fleury in your playoff pool, but he’s been fantastic so far. (Sean Russell)

The beauty of the NHL playoffs is that it’s a process. You rarely watch just one game and know a team is definitely out. Teams adjust. Teams get embarrassed. Teams fold. There are a lot of variables.

Having said that, though, Ottawa looks pretty done, having gone down 4-0 in its Game One loss to the Penguins. I don’t think Pittsburgh goalie Marc-Andre Fleury was a high draft pick in anyone’s playoff league, but he’s put up the first shutout of the playoffs. I don’t think people rushed to grab Pittsburgh’s Gary Roberts either, but he’s already got two goals, which is a little surprising given that he had just 30 goals in 119 previous playoff games. Also, in a bit of a surprise move, defenseman Darryl Sydor, a veteran of over 150 playoff games and two-time Cup-winner (with two different teams, no less), was a healthy scratch for the opener. Obviously, in Pittsburgh the only sure starter has an 87 on his back.

The Rangers-Devils playoff game went a bit more as planned. Scott Gomez, one of New York’s key off-season acquisitions and a former Devil, put up three assists. Henrik Lundquist, the Ranger rock-star goalie, made 26 saves, giving up just one goal. A bit more shocking was the distracted play of Devil goalie Martin Brodeur, who often seemed as if he didn’t realize he was in the crease. While it seems to be the inconsistent post-season Brodeur of the past few playoffs, it’s still a bit surprising for a goalie with 94 playoff wins, a 1.93 goals against and a .920 save percentage.

The Western Conference playoffs had its share of surprises, too. The Dallas Stars, who many have been predicting to implode since the trade deadline, beat the Ducks of Anaheim in Game One of the first round. Dallas goalie Marty Turco, whose reputation is pretty much based upon choking in the playoffs, put up a shutout and Anaheim goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere, owner of a 31-13 playoff record going into last night’s loss, gave a .892 save percentage performance. Given all of the padding both goalies wear, it wouldn’t shock me to find out they switched places for the night. That would be a little funny and certainly explain plenty.

Over in Detroit, even they were the West’s top seed, it was still a little surprising the Red Wings managed to beat the Predators in Game One, given Detroit’s recent propensity for early rounds playoff exits. Detroit’s Johan Franzen continues his sick goal-scoring pace. Having ended the season with 15 goals in about a month, he put up a goal last night against Nashville. At this point, if you want to stop Franzen, you’re going to need to bring in the National Guard.

On Tap

April 11th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Steven Ovadia . Author: Steven Ovadia . Comments: 1 Comment

Patrick Marleau had a down year, but he’s been pretty good down the stretch and is a proven playoff performer. (Photo by Jon Swenson)

How does one write a playoff primer when spots are still up for grabs and seedings are uncertain? Well, when you have a deadline, you just roll the dice and hope for the best! Still, there are plenty of definite things you can count on if you’re participating in a playoff pool and we’ll focus on those. I’ll also throw in a few nuggets of what-if scenarios but those could all be irrelevant depending on what happens Friday night, Saturday, and when this finally gets posted (probably Saturday). [Editor's note -- oops, make that Sunday due to hangover.]

There are a number of different playoff pool types, and that means that you may get to move players in and out after a round (or in real time) or you may be stuck with your roster from day one. Consider these tips as general and as all-encompassing as possible, and try to apply them with your playoff pool rules in mind.

Tip One: Bet on sure things in net - that means you’re looking at stability, health, and long-term. Try concentrating your picks on the teams you feel have the best shot to go in for the long haul, especially if you feel like they’ll be playing teams that aren’t clean sweeps. That’s right, I said look for teams that can win a tougher series rather than a team looking at a cakewalk - a tougher series means more games means more fantasy points.

Tip Two: Spread out your offense. The playoffs are a time when secondary scoring makes or breaks both Cup contenders and fantasy teams. For example, a lot of people will probably pass over Patrick Marleau because of his pitiful regular season totals, but a quick look shows that he had a respectable past 20 games and he’s one of the leaders in playoff goals over the past three seasons. Similarly, Brad Richards is reliable in the postseason even though he hasn’t been great in Dallas so far; Richards isn’t worth a top pick right now, but he may slide down and be available in later rounds.

Tip Three: Look for proven playoff performers. Hello, Chris Drury. Hello, Jarome Iginla. These are the guys who’ve always stepped up when push comes to shove, and rather than take people with up-and-down playoff records (Joe Thornton, Pavel Datsyuk - two players that have really only had one good playoff season), focus your top picks on guys that have consistently played well when the chips are on the line.

Tip Four: Avoid injury-prone players. Sure, Peter Forsberg is a great playoff performer, but who knows whether or not he’ll play game-to-game. Though, knowing Forsberg, he’ll be in the lineup when it counts, even when he’s not 100 per cent.

Tip Five: Defense wins fantasy leagues. That’s defense as in scoring from blueliners, a rarity in today’s NHL and even scarcer in the playoffs. That’s why a top defenseman should be in your first two picks. Look at Sergei Gonchar, Brian Campbell, Nicklas Lidstrom, Scott Niedermayer, Mark Streit, and guys along those lines.

Tip Six: Take a closer look at goaltending. Bet on a favoured team with a goalie that’s been steady all season long like San Jose’s Evgeni Nabokov versus Detroit’s groin-pull-o-rama Dominik Hasek. Right now, your favourites are San Jose, Detroit, Anaheim, Montreal, and Pittsburgh. Jean-Sebastian Giguere’s battled injuries, Carey Price is untested, and Marc-Andre Fleury can be streaky. Of those goalies, Nabokov is the best bet.

Tip Seven: Use the first round to judge sleepers. Playoffs are a streaky time of year - remember when Alyn McCauley jumped from two-way checker to playoff scoring demon for the Maple Leafs? If someone gets hot, take a gamble - smart risk-taking is the best way to win a playoff pool.

Now, depending on who makes it in the East, we could be in for some wild showdowns. Washington’s one of the hottest teams in the league, and if it plays well against Florida and get a few bounces its way, the Caps could finish as high as seventh. If the Caps make it, they’re playing with enough confidence and swagger to make their players great dark-horse picks, even outside of Alexander Ovechkin.

Also, if Philadelphia makes the playoffs, don’t be fooled by Daniel Briere and his decent point total (check out his awesome -22, though). Briere hasn’t been the same since he lost consistent playing time with Simon Gagne; if you’re taking someone from Philly, a safe sleeper pick is Vaclav Prospal.

As for the Senators, talk about a team in disarray. Not only do they lose one of their best players indefinitely (Daniel Alfredsson), the Sens can’t figure out if they’re awesome or horrible. They could easily drop out in a four-game sweep in the first round or they could make a deep push; that level of uncertainty means that you’ll want to avoid big names like Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley and use your top forward picks elsewhere.

April 6th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: No Comments

The future has arrived on the Island in the form of Kyle Okposo.

The beauty of an NHL system that lets more than half of the teams into the playoffs is that it makes it very exciting to watch those teams struggling to not be left out of the party. And, of course, struggle makes for both offense and injuries, the sad yin and yang of fantasy hockey.

Boston Bruin Marc Savard, an increasingly gifted scorer and puck-disher (15 goals and 63 assists), is out with a broken bone in his back, after taking a cross-check against Montreal. The Bruins are saying he’ll miss at least two games, which seems a bit conservative given that it’s a broken bone in his back. It’s not like the guy chipped a tooth. So if Savard is in your lineup, you might want to keep an eye on the situation.

Philadelphia Flyer Mike Richards has been feeling pretty good since returning to the lineup from a hamstring injury. He’s put up five goals in six games and has 71 points on the season. More importantly, the time off seems to have done him some good after a slow February.

The Buffalo Sabres just can’t catch a break. They can’t hold onto half of their players for financial reasons and the players they do have get injured. Tim Connolly is the latest victim, out not only for the rest of the regular season, but also for the playoffs, which luckily for Buffalo doesn’t seem like a big deal, since its outside of the playoff bubble. Connolly, the 1999 first-round draft pick, wasn’t an offensive juggernaut, but he put up decent enough numbers (seven goals and 33 assists in 48 games).

If you’re a little bit of a gambling fantasy player, you might consider taking a chance on Islander propsect Kyle Okposo. Okposo, the Islanders’ first-round draft pick in 2006, left the University of Minnesota early to sign with the Isles, and now that they’ve pretty much given up on any kind of playoff run, he’s seeing some NHL time and not looking too out of place. He’s got a goal and two assists in his first five NHL games. Factor in Islanders’ coach Ted Nolan needing some kind of hook to get a contract extension. Everyone knows there’s no better way to get re-signed (other than winning), than having the organization’s top prospect be a fan. How do you make a rookie like your coaching? Give him a lot of scoring chances and power play time.

Over in the Western Conference, St. Louis Blue Paul Kariya has gone stone cold. His last goal was on Valentine’s Day. That’s February 14, for those of you who shun the Hallmark-manufactured holiday. And now, it’s almost April. Kariya has 57 points on the season, and you have to figure with a goal drought this long, he’s bound to score eventually. But he might not be the best choice for your roster, given pretty much any other option.

Detroit Red Wing Johan Franzen continues his red-hot March. How’s this for a fantasy stat? There were only two games in March in which he didn’t score. And in one of those games, he still picked up an assist. So Franzen continues to be a great option if you’re smart enough to have on your roster.

The Week Ahead

March 28th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Steven Ovadia . Author: Steven Ovadia . Comments: No Comments

When the Sharks take a bite out of weaker clubs, expect to see Brian Boucher between the pipes.

With just a few weeks left, we’re into the stretch run of the season, and that means it’s purely inter-divisional matchups (minus one Bruins/Devils game). What does this mean from a fantasy perspective? Well, you can make an educated guess as to which goalie will play depending on whether or not the team has already secured their position and whether or not the opponent is out of the playoffs. For example, a San Jose game vs. Dallas would almost certainly be Evgeni Nabokov in net, but if it’s against Los Angeles, look for Brian Boucher to give Nabokov a night off.

On the flip side, for teams out of the playoffs, if players have had nagging injuries, look for them to move forward with rehab or surgery rather than trying to fight through it. Rick DiPietro’s a good example of this, as he’s opting to get surgery now and have a leg up on recovery.

During the Florida Panthers’ recent resurgence, Olli Jokinen’s led the way. One name that might not get much recognition though is Rostislav Olesz. With points in five of the last seven games and a spot on Jokinen’s wing, the 23-year-old former first rounder (2004) is showing signs of why he was drafted so high. Will it be enough to push the Panthers into the playoffs? Here’s thinking probably not, and yet again the Panthers will waste a terrific last stretch of the season.

With Dallas dropping all the way down to fifth place in the West, one has to look at the recent cold streaks of Mike Ribiero and the on-again-off-again season of Brad Richards. Ribiero’s led the Stars since the season opened, but he only has three points in all of March. Richards, who blew away Stars’ fans with a five-point premiere, only has four points in the ensuing seven games. Not surprisingly, this stretch is when Dallas fell from the Pacific lead to the middle of the pack.

The remaining games in Tampa are a tryout for next season, but one player who’s getting the opportunity of a lifetime is Jussi Jokinen. Dallas’ former shootout specialist has found himself on a line with Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis as the Bolts look forward toward next season. After starting off relatively slowly, Jokinen’s adjusted and is currently riding a five-game point streak. His +/- is awful, but so it goes with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Similarly, Jeff Halpern’s gone from a 0.5 point-per-game guy to all sorts of ice time and special teams opportunities in Tampa. It’s moves like this that can help your fantasy team finish strong; a player like Halpern is given the opportunity to play the second-line role rather than being a fourth-line checker. Don’t forget, the former Caps’ captain has had a 20-goal season in his NHL career and might thrive in a second-line role behind Lecavalier. And chances are, Halpern’s still available in your league.

The Peter Forsberg experiment isn’t working out in Colorado. When Forsberg’s been in the lineup, he’s created his share of scoring chances. It’s just that he’s hardly played since returning to Colorado. Whether this is strategically done to make sure he is in prime shape for the playoffs is anyone’s guess, but with Paul Stastny fighting a nasty flu bug and the team needing goals, look for Forsberg to try to play Superman sooner rather than later.

The Week Ahead

March 21st, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 1 Comment