What Went Right

Brett Favre didn’t get to throw to Randy Moss but Greg Jennings and Donald Driver did the trick in 2007. The Mississippi gunslinger fired 28 touchdown passes, his highest total since 2004. Along the way, Favre set NFL career records for most touchdown passes and most yards (sorry, Dan Marino). In other years, Favre would have received strong MVP consideration. Driver and Jennings were the biggest beneficiaries of Favre’s blast-from-the-past season. Jennings accounted for 12 touchdowns, while Driver led the team in receptions (82) and receiving yards (1,048). The biggest surprise for the Pack was the emergence of running back Ryan Grant, who accumulated 956 yards rushing and eight touchdowns despite not seeing an abundance of playing time until Week Eight.

What Went Wrong

A funny thing happened on the way to Green Bay playing the Patriots in the Super Bowl - Corey Webster. The Giant cornerback’s overtime interception in the NFC title game began what has been a tragic comedy for Packer fans, management and especially Favre. The legendary Packer quarterback announced his retirement in March, and then changed his mind after management set the wheels in motion for Aaron Rodgers to be the starting quarterback. Instead of being focused on football this offseason, the Packer front office is involved in a game of chicken with a first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback — a game which they cannot possibly win in the eyes of the public.

Off-season Outlook

Despite the three ring circus of the last few months, the Packers are coming off a 13-3 season and narrowly missed playing in the Super Bowl. While the change at quarterback (we think) will be an adjustment, the Packers kept the team intact for the most part. Offensive tackle Joe Toledo and linebacker Brandon Chillar posed as the Pack’s only meaningful free agent acquisitions. Meanwhile, they’ll need to address defensive tackle at some point with Johnny Jolly’s legal situation. Jolly could face up to 20 years in prison for possessing at least 200 grams of codeine.

Draft Review

Okay, follow me for a moment. The Packers spent so much time in nurturing Rodgers and are so completely against the idea of Favre coming back that they drafted Brian Brohm in the second round. Matt Flynn was then selected as a seventh round choice. So, the Packers could open the season with three quarterbacks that have never started a game. In brighter news, the team used another second round pick on receiver Jordy Nelson to add depth to a talented group of pass catchers.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks

Assuming the Packers stick to their alleged party line of keeping Favre in retirement, Rodgers as a fantasy option is an intriguing issue. He has good weapons at receiver and a solid running game to back him. Rodgers looked good when he relieved an injured Favre against Dallas last season (completing 18-of-26 for 201 yards and one TD). However, being the starter is another ballgame. Rodgers watching for a few years may give him an upper hand early as teams don’t have a great reference point for preparing against him. However, consider him a second string fantasy quarterback until he can prove himself. Historically, quarterbacks that follow Hall of Fame quarterbacks often struggle. A 17- to 20-touchdown pass season is not unreasonable, but don’t expect a Joe Montana to Steve Young transition.

On a quick side note, the Packers are better off with Favre as their quarterback for this season, but here’s the truth of the matter for fantasy owners. As days go by and August drafts start soon, the prospect of selecting Favre in a draft under any circumstance is not a good idea until something concrete happens. Remember, the Packers have all the power in this situation, not Favre.

Running Backs

Grant is back, but will have the added pressure of trying to produce with Rodgers under centre. Luckily though, teams still have to worry about Driver and Jennings, so selling out against the run isn’t a real option for defenses unless Rodgers shows Akili Smith-like talent. Former Giant castoff Grant possesses good breakaway speed and the ability to shed tacklers. Handling a season’s load worth of carries is a concern, but he should be ready for the challenge. He is an early- to mid-second round option in fantasy drafts. Brandon Jackson, Vernand Morency and DeShawn Wynn add depth and versatility.

Wide Receivers

Jennings posed as the long distance threat last season (averaged a team-high 17.6 yards per catch) and ranked amongst the league’s best in catches of 40 yards or more. Only Moss and Joey Galloway caught more passes of at least 40 yards than Jennings’ seven big play receptions. The veteran Driver could act as a security blanket for Rodgers out of the gate. However, since Jennings is younger and a long distance threat, he has better value than the 32-year-old Driver. Nelson and James Jones round out a talented group. If Rogers fails it’ll likely be on his own merit, not because he lacked options.

Tight Ends

The team severed ties with Bubba Franks and gave Donald Lee a four-year, $12 million contract extension last November. The new deal solidifies Lee as the starter and, after catching six touchdown passes in ’07, he should be a red zone factor again. He’s not in Gates-Witten-Gonzalez territory, but he’s an up and coming talent. Lee’s backup is slated to be rookie Jermichael Finley out of Texas.

Defense/Special Teams

The Jolly situation could affect Green Bay’s run stopping capabilities going forward and the secondary got exposed a bit in the NFC title game. Despite those issues, the Packers play in a division which lacks consistent offenses. Despite the fact that its return games lack explosiveness, it should rank close to a top 10 fantasy unit.

July 23rd, 2008
Categories: Derek Jones, FOOTBALL . Author: Derek Jones . Comments: 1 Comment

What Went Right

West of Foxborough, Massachusetts, few offenses could hold a candle to the Dallas Cowboys. Tony Romo progressed nicely in his second year as a starter and threw 36 touchdowns, second in the NFL only to Tom Brady. Any hangover concerns from the dropped snap against the Seahawks in the playoffs a season prior were quickly forgotten. Terrell Owens was…Terrell Owens, catching 15 touchdowns. And Marion Barber nearly eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career and scored 12 times while splitting carries with the now departed Julius Jones. It was Jason Witten, not Owens, who led the Cowboys in receptions with 96. When the dust settled, Dallas averaged 28 points per game (second overall) and 365 yards per game (third overall).

What Went Wrong

While Dallas improved defensively, it was still susceptible to big plays and struggled at times allowing 20 points per contest. For the second straight season, the arrival of a blonde singer to Cowboy games coincidentally signaled the slow death of the team’s success. In ’06, Carrie Underwood stopped by towards the season’s end and in ’07 it was Jessica Simpson’s turn. While the season finale against Washington had little value because the Cowboys clinched home field advantage, they averaged only ten points per game in the three contests of the regular season. Compounding matters was a late-season ankle injury suffered by Owens. Then in the playoffs, the offensive line fell apart as the Giants harassed Romo non-stop and eventually overcame Dallas 21-17 in the divisional round.

Off-season Outlook

A team that possessed the NFC’s best record did not need to make wholesale changes on offense. The time is now for Dallas which is why on defense it acquired suspended cornerback Adam “Pacman” Jones from Tennessee, who has still yet to be reinstated by the league, to bolster the secondary. Assuming he’s allowed to play, Jones could also have an impact on the special teams as a returner. Former Dolphin linebacker Zach Thomas will join the team to help shore up the depth at linebacker.

Draft Review

Felix Jones is a big play back out of Jerry Jones’ alma mater, Arkansas. He will not play quite the role that the absent Jones did. Instead, look for him to be the lightning to Barber’s thunder. Tight end Martellus Bennett has talent, but is behind Witten which renders his fantasy value rather ineffective for this season. Fourth round selection Tashard Choice may see carries as well. He handled the load while at Georgia Tech and should be able to provide some power running off the bench.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks

Romo is the rock solid starter for Dallas and should continue his successful ways. Throughout mock drafts and as suggested by fantasy magazines, Romo is the third quarterback typically taken behind Brady and Peyton Manning, which is a fair assessment. Another 30-plus touchdown pass season is well within reach for the Eastern Illinois product. As long as the Dallas offensive line plays like it did during the regular season instead of how it performed in the playoffs against the Giants, Romo will excel again. His level of play dipped in December again for the second straight season, which is a concern for fantasy owners when playoff time rolls around. In fact, over the last four games of the ’06 and ’07 campaigns, Romo has combined for nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. His last four games this season: at Pittsburgh, home against the Giants and Ravens; and at Philadelphia.

Running Backs

Assuming that the Dallas offense continues to stays relatively healthy (which it has since ’06), this might be the hitch in the Cowboys giddy up. Barber returns, but he has two rookies in Jones and Choice behind him. Meanwhile, Barber has yet to prove that he can handle a season as the main go-to guy. His season high in carries is 204. At the very least, he’ll have to shoulder a lot of responsibility early on until the young pups get their bearings. Nonetheless, Barber is a scoring machine and that should continue. This should be the season he finally surpasses the 1,000-yard mark and I expect him to add to another double-digit touchdown campaign.

Wide Receivers

At 34, Owens is creeping up there in age, but shows little signs of slowing down. The biggest concern with him is injury. He has missed at least one game in five of the last six seasons. However, he is as reliable as any receiver in the league when it comes to making big plays. A potential negative for the Cowboys at receiver is a lack of consistency after Owens. Patrick Crayton is the number two guy, but has shown a propensity to drop the ball at crucial times. His fantasy value as a second or third receiver on a fantasy team is solid though because of T.O.’s presence. Terry Glenn’s situation with the team still remains up in the air as he missed 15 games last season with a knee injury; he may be on his last legs.

Tight Ends

Witten is one of the top tight ends in football and is coming off a career year. His totals may not be quite as high from ’07, but he remains the second best option in the passing game behind you know who.

Defense/Special Teams

The Cowboy defense should be amongst the league’s best again in 2008. Even if Jones is not reinstated prior to the regular season’s beginning, Dallas still has guys who make plays like DeMarcus Ware, who had 14 sacks last season. The ‘Boys secondary should be in good shape as long as they hide safety Roy Williams, who is quickly falling out of favour in Big D. Whenever Dallas has given up a big pass play in the past two seasons, somewhere Williams was likely trailing the play. Expect Dallas to be one of the top fantasy defense/special teams squads in 2008.

July 18th, 2008
Categories: Derek Jones, FOOTBALL, Team report . Author: Derek Jones . Comments: 1 Comment

What Went Right

Old Man River, aka Fred Taylor, rushed for 1,202 yards and five scores to help pace an impressive Jacksonville running game. Most noteworthy, Taylor racked up a 5.4 yards per carry average in the process.Maurice Jones-Drew battered and bruised the opposition to tune of over 1,000 yards of total offense and nine touchdowns. The Jags’ biggest surprise on offense was quarterback David Garrard who stepped in for the released Byron Leftwich. Garrard, who ranked first in most outrageous suits worn at a post-game press conference, connected on 18 touchdown passes to just three interceptions. He parlayed his 2007 play into big time pay, receiving a new seven-year, $60 million deal in April.

What Went Wrong

Despite Garrard’s success, the receivers were nothing special. Reggie Williams caught ten touchdowns, but only pulled in 38 total receptions. Meanwhile, Ernest Wilford snagged 45 catches, but bolted for Miami in the offseason. Jacksonville’s inability to push the ball downfield and a defense that broke often against high level competition, led to the team’s post-season demise.

Off-season Outlook

While Pro Bowl defensive tackle Marcus Stroud shuffled off to Buffalo, the Jags addressed the offense in free agency instead. They added former Raider Jerry Porter and traded for Troy Williamson, previously of the Minnesota Vikings, in an attempt to aid a lagging group of receivers. Both players are gambles, but if they can get their heads in the proper place, it could be quite the productive offseason in Florida.

Draft Review

Defense, defense, defense. Four of Jacksonville’s five picks were on the defensive side of the football. Ends Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves were taken in the first and second round, respectively. They’ll play that oh-so-familiar game entitled “Let’s See If We Can Put a Pass Rush on Peyton Manning.†Best of luck, gents — you’ll need it.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks

Garrard is the man without a doubt, but can he help fantasy owners? He did not have a 300-yard passing game and had just one outing with more than two touchdown passes. The 30-year-old runs a steady ship, though. He’s a spot starter and one who should continue to grow in his second full season as starting quarterback. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter favours a passing game that goes deep which hasn’t proven to be Garrard’s game yet. Garrard’s success hinges on his receivers being consistent and stretching secondaries because teams will still cheat to stop Jacksonville’s overpowering rush game.

Running Backs

The one-two punch of Taylor and Jones-Drew is among the league’s strongest. The combo helped Jacksonville average 149 yards per game on the ground which ranked second in the league. At 32, can Taylor repeat his ’07 effort? Barring an injury to Jones-Drew, Taylor isn’t likely to eclipse his 223 carries from a season ago. If he does so by a sizeable margin, trouble could finally be on the horizon for him. Both players are best suited for their roles at this stage of their careers. Jones-Drew’s game is more blasting cannon than pocket knife which may make him more susceptible to injuries. Regardless, Jones-Drew’s value in touchdown only leagues is solid. He has scored 24 times total between rushing and receiving in his first two years.

Wide Receivers

Here is another reason why athleticism is great, but often extremely overvalued at times in the NFL. Matt Jones, the college quarterback turned wideout, has not proven to be a reliable receiving option. Hyped as a soon-to-be breakout player, his career as a Jag is in peril after being charged with cocaine possession. He’s likely to be a non-factor this season. Porter and Williams should work well together especially when the running game is firing and openin up play action. Keep an eye on Williamson who got rave reviews for his performance in off-season workouts. Much like Porter, a change of scenery may do the trick. In all, be conservative with the estimations for the Jaguar receivers. To start though, Porter will likely join Williams as the team’s main receiving options. Armed with the league’s third toughest schedule and a tremendous running game, the passing game may stretch the field a bit more but don’t expect the second coming of Tom Brady to Randy Moss.

Tight Ends

The Jags tried to address this position with the addition of Marcedes Lewis in the 2006 draft. He has largely not lived up to expectations. The good news is his numbers went up in his second year. The continued maturity of Garrard is likely to help, but Lewis is not a ready for prime time player at tight end.

Defense/Special Teams

The Jags must adjust to the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Smith, who became the head man in Atlanta. On the field, they’ll have to overcome the loss of Stroud which may very well have an impact on their run stopping capabilities. Jones-Drew stirs the drink returning kicks while Dennis Northcutt is the ice that waters it down. Jones-Drew can break a kickoff while Northcutt offers little excitement returning punts. However, the Jags defense/special teams should be considered one of the top ten units on draft day.

July 13th, 2008
Categories: Derek Jones, FOOTBALL . Author: Derek Jones . Comments: 2 Comments

What Went Right

It was one if by land, two if by land for Tennessee last season. The passing game managed to be one of the league’s worst; while the Titans ranked fifth in the league by averaging 131 yards per game on the ground. LenDale White led the charge on the ground with 1,110 yards rushing and seven touchdowns. Rob Bironas proved to be one of the most dangerous Titans. Unfortunately, he’s the kicker, which doesn’t speak highly of the Titan offense. Bironas drained 35 of 39 field goals including a record-breaking eight in one game against the Texans.

What Went Wrong

If the Titans have aspirations of going deep into the playoffs they must throw the football effectively. In 15 games, Vince Young threw just nine touchdown passes while sprinkling in 17 interceptions. That’s not acceptable regardless of the receivers. Speaking of the wideouts, no receiver topped 1,000 yards or 60 receptions. After jettisoning Drew Bennett during the previous offseason, no receiver filled his shoes in 2007.

Off-season Outlook

The Titans needed to address an offense that looked anemic at times. While the defense proved to be one of the league’s best units, the offense nearly kept the Titans out of the postseason. However, they made minimal additions on offense. Their most notable acquisition came with the arrival of former Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler. Keep an eye on receiver Justin McCareins, who returns to the Titans and has experience working with offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger.

Draft Recap

Tom Cruise and Anthony Edwards discussed their need for speed in Top Gun. Well, the Titans fulfilled their own need for speed by drafting running back Chris Johnson. He has a chance to make some big plays when in the open field. The Titans went on the defensive for much of the draft, however, receiver Lavelle Hawkins has a chance to contribute to a less than stellar receiving corps. Meanwhile, tight end Craig Stephens is primarily seen as a blocking threat.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks – Young’s second year did not show rapid improvement, but he can’t shoulder all of the blame. For the second consecutive offseason, he saw Tennessee’s front office shun the offense in some regard and not bring in multiple difference makers on offense. A sidebar if I may. Tennessee reminds me a great deal of the late ’80s to early’90s Philadelphia Eagles, led by quarterback Randall Cunningham (ironically, head coach Jeff Fisher served as defensive coordinator for those teams from ’88 to ’90). The Eagles leadership neglected to get Cunningham enough help to win playoff games. Whether it was receiver, offensive line or running backs, the skill positions were mostly ignored throughout the Cunningham regime; only bringing in players that were troubled at the time (Cris Carter) or past their prime (Herschel Walker). Regardless, the Birds always had that bruising defense to lean on — much like the Titans. In the end, the Eagles failed to make it to a Super Bowl due to a lack of offense. It’s a fate that will find Young unless the Titans brass wakes up, but I digress. Young is not a weekly starter because of the passing game’s ineptitude, but he remains a threat because of his legs. The arrival of Heimerdinger should help, but ultimately Young needs better skill players. Kerry Collins returns as his backup and can succeed in small doses if given the chance.

Running Backs – Tennessee’s rush game isn’t about one guy; instead a group of talented rushers attacked the defense last season. White returns and the team is hoping he continues to mature into a solid runner. Johnson should help in his first year, while Chris Henry has a ways to go before he will be looked at as a force. Also, Young is an obvious threat on the move. Tennessee is another team that will rely on more than one guy to carry the mail on Sundays.

Wide Receivers – The power does not lie here. Justin Gage and Roydell Williams are respectable receivers, but only combined for six touchdown catches in ’07. For Young to sink or swim, he has to receive a chance to swim. His career will sink to the ocean’s floor unless he gets some help. McCareins returns and may provide some relief, but stay away from this mediocre bunch.

Tight Ends – Alge Crumpler arrives and should help Young, especially in the red zone. While Crumpler isn’t quite the same player as his peak days in Atlanta, he is still better than what the Titans offered a season ago. Expect Bo Scaife to be a factor again which should also aid Tennessee’s third year quarterback.

Defense/Special Teams – Tennessee is among the best defenses in the NFL. Led by defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, it is are arguably the most physical group in the league. However, that doesn’t necessarily equate to fantasy success. The Titan defense will be formidable again slowing down foes. The key figure on special teams will be free agent pickup, defensive back Chris Carr, who may be a prime threat returning kicks and punts.

June 25th, 2008
Categories: Derek Jones, FOOTBALL, Team report . Author: Derek Jones . Comments: 13 Comments

What Went Right

Oh, it was mostly good for the Browns in 2007. The passing offense, with Derek Anderson, Kellen Winslow, and Braylon Edwards, went absolutely bananas. Anderson was the most surprising top performer since he wasn’t a starter until Week Two. In fact, his taking the reigns from Charlie Frye was about the most frightening prospect for fantasy owners. Okay, Frye maintaining the starting gig would have been scarier. Still, Anderson came out of nowhere to lead Edwards and Winslow to more than 1,100 receiving yards each. Oh, and Jamal Lewis ran for 1,300 yards and nine scores. We have no idea how that happened. Perhaps he was trying to outrun the law again.

What Went Wrong

Really, trying to find a negative aspect to the Browns’ fantasy performers is tough, and anything said will sound nitpicky. Obviously, the defense was, well, crappy. But that’s good for the offense. Anderson got 527 attempts and most of those came with the Browns needing to put up huge point totals. Also, we’re talking about defense? Please. The Browns were a fantasy goldmine in 2007. Hell, even Phil Dawson was a beast. Phil Dawson!

Off-Season Outlook

The Browns’ front office didn’t do too much to the offense, which is a good thing, we guess. The brass did bring in wide out Dónte Stallworth to compliment Edwards on the other side. Stallworth was his usual inconsistent self, and his injury prone label didn’t really change at all. Still, having another weapon that defenses have to at least pay attention to can’t hurt. Other than that, the only other big offensive news was the cutting of LeCharles Bentley. If Bentley played at all with the team, it might have been a more worrisome issue.

Draft Recap

Umm, since the Browns didn’t even have a first-day selection, we can just bypass this section, right? No? You want a random, yet hysterical video? Okay, try this.

State of the Team

Quarterbacks - Anderson was lights-out for fantasy owners last year, except for a couple points. First of all, he struggled over the last part of the season. This isn’t a deal-breaker exactly, but his last three games featured more interceptions than touchdowns. Maybe this because of the fault of cold-weather games, or maybe the league started to figure him out a bit. It’s probably one of those glass-half-empty things. The other red flag was his completion percentage. It wasn’t good. In fact, Tavaris Jackson beat him in this category. Ultimately, it was Anderson’s first season as a starter, and if a highly-touted first year guy (say, Brady Quinn) had that kind of year, we’d be calling him the next Manning.

Running Backs - Lewis was re-signed and he will get the carries as long as he’s healthy. Unfortunately, we refuse to believe whatever happened last season was true. It had to be a mirage. The Lewis we remember was slower than Eddie George and had fewer moves than Ron Dayne. Sorry, Dawg Pound, we don’t see nine scores for Lewis this season.

Wide Receivers - Edwards was possessed last season. Normally, 16 receiving touchdowns would be good enough to lead the league. Unfortunately, a certain wide out in New England was doing a little better. Still, Edwards should be a top three receiver in every scoring system. Stallworth is an okay second backup, as he will have a couple big games during the right matchup.

Tight Ends - Winslow, perhaps against the odds, has been one of the more consistent elite tight ends for the last couple seasons. He seems to be a lock for over 1,000 yards and five or six scores if healthy.

Defense/Special Teams - One of the reasons the Browns didn’t have any real draft picks this season is because they brought in Shaun Rogers, who will be expected to make a big splash on the defensive line. That would be great, as long as he doesn’t do too much to keep Cleveland in low-scoring games. Also, Josh Cribbs — try no returning kicks for scores this season! You are a fantasy thief, and no one likes you!

June 21st, 2008
Categories: Andy Goldstein, Derek Jones, FOOTBALL, Team report . Author: Andy Goldstein . Comments: No Comments