Esch-Terry Poll Leaked - Obama Still Within Margin Of Error In 2nd CD

by: Scott Packer

Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 10:14:40 AM CDT

(Updated with my response. - promoted by Kyle Michaelis)

Partially leaked polls don't stay only partially leaked for long. Swing State Project   got a hold of the poll that we first heard about the other day saying that Jim Esch was trailing Lee Terry by single digits. The poll, commissioned by Anzalone Liszt has the following on the second districts House race-

This polling just shows that Terry is vulnerable - notice that Terry is still running below 50%. Once fall campaigning begins, the race should tighten even further. This just goes to show that as long as the Esch campaign runs well funded, then yes, Lee Terry will go down.

But that's not all. The poll also asked respondents who they were voting for President. This race is even tighter.

We all knew back in Februrary that Senator Obama would have a chance to take the second and maybe even the first congressional districts, but the race is this tight even before the conventions.

Still, the 4% difference between Esch's numbers and Obama's numbers in the district show that yes, there are some Obama-Terry voters out there, but you have to think that group is winnable for Esch given who they are voting for President.

-------------

This is Kyle.  With apologies to Scott, I really have to jump in here just to correct one statement.  The truth is that the above numbers do not lend credibility to the myth of the Obama-Terry voter.  All these numbers show is that there's 1% of the vote that's currently supporting Lee Terry but hasn't yet committed to John McCain.  

My guess is that this 1% might be among the most conservative voters who have long-standing doubts about McCain for occasionally breaking with the party line in his previous incarnation before selling out completely during his campaign for the presidency.  If they don't come home to McCain, though, this 1% could just as well go to Libertarian Bob Barr as any other alternative.

What we do see is that Esch has a little bit of work ahead of him winning over the full Obama vote.  But, there's no reason at this point to think that can't be corrected entirely by name recognition.  Again - I repeat - the Obama-Terry vote remains nothing more than a figment of Lee Terry's imagination.

Why Does Rush Limbaugh Fear Ben Nelson & "The Gang Of Ten"?

by: Kyle Michaelis

Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 02:06:02 AM CDT

Earlier this month, Sen. Ben Nelson was traveling the state as part of a bipartisan coalition of five Democratic and five Republican Senators promoting a new energy proposal that would allow for expanded domestic oil production.  This moderate-by-design legislation strives for a reasonable balance between competing environmental and economic interests that have otherwise hijacked the energy debate and prevented Congressional action.

The stated goal of the so-called "Gang of Ten" is to get a responsible, bipartisan bill passed soon after Congress reconvenes after its August recess - in time for the 2008 election.  It's this latter possibility that has hardcore right-wing partisans up-in-arms and enraged at those Republican Senators who have joined with Nelson and are actually trying to get something done.

Republican Congressional representatives have been showboating on this issue as much as possible, hoping to use the "Drill Here, Drill Now" theme to salvage their fading electoral hopes by appealing to voters' frustration over high oil prices.  In fact, this month all three of Nebraska's Republican Congressmen have spent time in Washington D.C. participating in a mock session of Congress staged by party leaders.

The hallmark of their efforts is the idea that the Democratic-controlled Congress is doing nothing to address the American people's concern.  Essentially, they've been rooting for failure and inflaming passions intended to make progress on these issues impossible.  That's why the work of Nelson and his fellow members of the "Gang of 10" poses such a threat.  Should they succeed, it undercuts the entire message on which Republicans are banking their 2008 appeal.

Honestly, how bankrupt can you get?

For an illustration of just how seriously the right-wing fringe is taking the Gang of Ten's proposal, let's turn to Rush Limbaugh on his August 8th show:

Sorry, Rush.  There's nothing "unnamed" about those Democratic Senators.  They are Kent Conrad, Blanche Lincoln, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, and our own Ben Nelson.  Needless to say, all five of them deserve credit and thanks - along with their Republican counterparts - for working for solutions like they were elected to do rather than playing these obnoxious partisan games promoted by the likes of Limbaugh and embraced by the likes of Lee Terry, Jeff Fortenberry, and Adrian Smith.

Scott Kleeb's Brand Of Change - Policy Book Open Thread

by: Kyle Michaelis

Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 18:23:29 PM CDT

Anyone who's been looking for a few more details on Democratic Senate nominee Scott Kleeb's policy positions should welcome today's release of a 56-page book containing Kleeb's stands on the issues facing Nebraskans.

Download it here.  I don't know when I'll have the opportunity to read the entire document, but I'm glad it's arrived just in time to make the tail end of my summer reading list.  For now, I'm curious about others reactions and would love to see some discussion of what readers find particularly inspiring or maybe just a little bit cringeworthy.

Right now, the contrast Kleeb poses with Mike Johanns should be coming fully into view.  What are the themes Kleeb needs to take from this document and really hammer home to voters?  If Kleeb's going to make the gains he needs, what are the issues that are going to make it happen?

Have at it.

Lee Terry's Message To Voters: "Let's Stick It To The Towelheads!"

by: Kyle Michaelis

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 22:28:32 PM CDT

Did you catch all those images of scary Arab guy in Lee Terry's latest campaign ad?

Well, it looks like this sort of racist nonsense is nothing new from the Terry campaign.  In fact, the United Arab Emirates' English-language publication, The National, already called out Terry for these despicable tactics from the other side of the world two weeks ago:

Without having seen the Terry mailing in question, it's still pretty clear the message his campaign is shooting for (see the headline).

I'm by no means advocating American dependency on the Middle East for our energy needs, but anyone who's been paying attention know that Terry's kept his mouth shut for eight years about our Republican president's close ties to Saudi oil interests.  And, he's conveniently forgotten to mention that oil companies such as Exxon and Shell are currently seeing record profits on the backs of America's working families.

I guess a picture of all those fat white men on those Boards of Directors just wouldn't quite have the same power . . .because it wouldn't promote the fear and resentment Terry is counting on to carry him to re-election.  Not to mention, voters might start asking questions about that $130,000-plus in campaign contributions Terry's received from the oil and gas industry since being elected to Congress.

Jim Esch Trails Lee Terry…By "a single digit".

by: Scott Packer

Mon Aug 18, 2008 at 12:14:12 PM CDT

(One point or nine points difference in the Esch-Terry race?  Either way, Esch is already outperforming his numbers in the 2006 election.  Meanwhile, let's not forget about how well Obama is matching up against McCain.  Sounds like some exciting times ahead in Nebraska's Second Congressional District. - promoted by Kyle Michaelis)

Don Walton towards the end of his latest article at the Lincoln Journal Star today is reporting on a new poll. According to Walton:

Not much else is known about the poll, more details will probably come out soon...

Meanwhile, Terry must have come to the conclusion that his partisan pep-rallies in the empty House chamber are not working. He has ditched the "Red Good-Blue Bad" sub-narrative to the energy debate and has adopted a new one.

Not that this path is actually new in any way. Lee Terry and other Republicans have been exploiting the fears of the nation since September 11th, but - after seven years of failure in the search for Bin Laden, after the failure to successfully rout Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, and after the War in Iraq which was so terribly bungled by the Bush Administration from the beginning - the nation isn't buying Terry's fear card anymore.

If Terry wants to run his new ad, he can. The ad only draws attention to his lack of leadership and production as a member of the Committee on Energy and Commerce during his first decade in the House.

NNN Live Call-In Show - Tonight, 9 pm

by: Kyle Michaelis

Sun Aug 17, 2008 at 19:15:49 PM CDT

What's on your mind, Nebraska?  After our summer hiatus, NNN Live is returning tonight at its new time, 9 pm CST.  I'm hoping that moving the show up an hour earlier should be a little more convenient for those who have to wake-up early on a Monday morning.

Right now, I don't have any set program for this week's show and am open to talking about whatever's going on in Nebraska politics.  Call in and tell me what's on your mind at (347) 838-9311. I'll keep the line open from 9 pm - 9:30 and we'll just see what sort of craziness ensues.

You've been knocking doors volunteering for Obama all weekend?  Call in and tell us what sort of response you've been getting from Nebraska voters.

Something going on under the radar that Nebraskans should know about?  Call in and give us all the heads up.

You want to scold me for my suggestions to the Kleeb campaign a couple of weeks back?  Maybe tell me to shut my mouth rather than defending Chuck Hagel from criticism by the Nebraska Democratic Party's next state chair?  By all means, call in and give me the hell I undoubtedly deserve.

The lines will be open.  Your voice will be heard.    Click on this link to listen live.  You'll be able to listen to the show all week on the "NNN Live" media player on the right-hand sidebar. But, remember, tonight is your only opportunity to actually join the conversation by calling (347) 838-9311..

This is a lot more fun for all of us when I'm not just talking to myself.  Hope to talk to you soon and hear what you have to say.

Do Nebraska Democrats Owe Chuck Hagel An Apology?

by: Kyle Michaelis

Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 20:43:59 PM CDT

Nebraska Republican Senator Chuck Hagel is not going to be Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama's running mate in the 2008 election.  It just isn't going to happen.

Certainly, Hagel has at least proven himself a nominal ally to Obama on many occasions.  For more than a year, Hagel has been one of the leading defenders of Obama's views on foreign policy, doing as much as anyone to bolster the candidate's credentials on that front.  And, there's no doubt Hagel's traveling with Obama to the Middle East last month lent some real credibility to Obama's bipartisan appeal at an important juncture in this election.

Even though he hasn't endorsed Obama and doesn't seem particularly likely to do so, Hagel has done enough to earn some measure of respect and gratitude from Democrats and Obama supporters.  That said, Hagel has never been a friend to a progressive agenda in the past, and no one should assume he's had any great change of heart.  But, we have to realize there comes a point at which we are shooting ourselves in the foot by holding too tightly to the politics of the past and might be missing a real opportunity by taking shots at the man.

That's why I was bothered by some of the quotes in an Associated Press article last week capturing some of our local politicians' reactions to a hypothetical Obama-Hagel ticket:

LJS: White a Democratic Lightning Rod

by: MIR

Sat Aug 16, 2008 at 18:46:50 PM CDT

( - promoted by Kyle Michaelis)

In Sunday's Lincoln Journal-Star, Don Walton profiles one of the leaders of the effort to establish a progressive-centrist presence in the Nebraska Legislature.

Connerly Supporters Shrouded in Mystery

by: Scott Packer

Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 11:45:42 AM CDT

As reported this morning in the Omaha World Herald ,Ward Connerly's anti-affirmative action group will not divulge a list of out of state donors because of a loophole in state law. What is even more alarming is that the group may get away with it's intentional efforts to conceal where it gets its money.

Connerly has created a second group called Super Tuesday for Equal Rights, which is nothing more than a dummy organization which takes money from individual donors from out of state, and then donates it to the Nebraska (or Colorado, or Arizona) Civil Rights Initiative. The STER donations to the NCRI are recorded by the FEC, but not the original donations to STER from individuals.

The Nebraska Accountability and Disclosure Commission issued an Advisory Opinion which said that, given the nature of Connerly's groups, anyone giving a donation to the ACRI would have done so knowing that their contributions would be spread out among the various state initiatives. That constitutes a contribution to the state initiatives, which must be disclosed.

But the executive director of the Commission, Frank Daley, says in the World Herald article that there isn't much he can do about it.

Connerly says he won't disclose donor names because he doesn't want to subject donors to situations like protesters picketing their house, or being called racist. The one time Connerly was forced to divulge his donors, it was revealed that Rupert Murdoch (Yes, of Fox News) gave $300,000 to the California initiative in 2002. I'm sure THIS would be the reason Murdoch would have to worry about people picketing his house. As far as the $400,000 that Joseph Coors (Yes, of Coors Beer) donated, well, he was a racist. He and his family have donated millions of dollars to extreme right wing causes, including contributions to Reagan's Contras efforts, The Heritage Foundation, which has led attacks against gay rights, and the Center for the Study of Popular Culture, which put ads in some college newspapers suggesting African Americans benefited from slavery.

Classy people, right? Even Ward Connerly thinks that Nebraskan's would reject the petition if they knew who was behind it. So he covers their trail, essentially laundering money in order to "protect" his donors. We don't know all of the people who have given money to him, just the few who were ousted by the California courts a few years ago. If Ward Connerly were as committed to honesty and integrity as he claims to be, then he would keep his organizations transparent. But we should all know by now that he isn't. That's why I suppose none of us are surprised anymore.

Taking Aim At John McCain? Heineman Admits Iraq War "All About" Oil

by: Kyle Michaelis

Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 02:06:53 AM CDT

It's a bad sign for John McCain in Nebraska when our state's Republican Governor is clearly undermining the false conception of the Iraq War upon which McCain has based most of his presidential campaign.  Despite McCain's echoing of five-and-a-half years of George W. Bush talking points about the struggle for freedom in Iraq and the Middle East, Gov. Dave Heineman is cutting through all that nonsense and showing his party's true colors by explaining that the only freedom in which they truly believe begins and ends with the insatiable thirst for oil.

The Omaha World-Herald reports:

Although Heineman probably wasn't thinking of the political ramifications of what he was saying, this admission leaves John McCain and all three of Nebraska's dishonest Republican Congressmen without a leg to stand on over the war in Iraq.  

Heineman just inadvertently debunked the party line on which all of these politicians have been relying for so many years.  If the reason more than 4,000 American men and women have died in Iraq is "all about reducing our dependence on foreign oil," then it doesn't have a damn bit to do with the freedom of the Iraqi people.  And,  needless to say, if our Armed Forces "wouldn't be over there" if it weren't for oil, that's a pretty bold admission of just how little this war really has to do with the so-called War on Terror.

Of course, what's most startling about these statements by Heineman that pose such a liability for McCain and his fellow Republican candidates is that each was made defending the ethanol industry from attacks by politicians like John McCain.  Heineman is actually undermining McCain on Iraq while taking direct aim at his position against federal subsidies for ethanol production.

A month after McCain's $750,000 fundraising stop-over, during which the Nebraska Democratic Party and even this website offered a lackluster critical response, Dave Heineman has actually picked up our slack and shown us the way to hold McCain accountable to Nebraska voters.  He's sharpened a double-edged sword for Republicans, then pointed it at McCain.  It's up to us to deliver that killing blow by which the people of Nebraska might realize how terrible a President McCain would truly be for our state.

My Trip To Afghanistan

by: Jim Esch

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 13:45:58 PM CDT

( - promoted by Scott Packer)

Last week, I traveled to Afghanistan to get a firsthand perspective of the situation on the ground. I arranged the trip with help from the University of Nebraska-Omaha's Center for Afghanistan Studies. The center is one of the foremost resources in our country for information and expertise regarding Afghanistan. I spent about a week in the country, and met with Afghans, Americans, and others who are dealing day-to-day with the delicate situation in this volatile region.

As I said last election, our decision to shift our focus from hunting down Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda to regime change in Iraq was an enormous mistake. It is clear from my travels, while the country is much better off than it was under the Taliban, progress seems to be stalling. Bin Laden and other terrorists are free to operate in the uncontrolled border region between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Life for the average Afghan is getting worse, not better. Security concerns are jeopardizing Afghanistan's ability to hold free and open elections in 2009. We must refocus our efforts now, before we lose what gains we have made.

Nebraska Republicans Spreading Anti-Obama Propaganda

by: Kyle Michaelis

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 23:11:06 PM CDT

It had been a lot of years since Republicans had a booth at the Cuming County Fair.  It's a testament to how much coporate PAC money is flowing through Mike Johanns' Senate campaign that last weekend's fair in the thriving northeast Nebraska community of West Point included a booth for the Cuming County Republican Party.

Overflowing with Johanns bags and yard signs, the booth also included a shrine to Ronald Reagan featuring video of his presidential speeches and a wall full of 70s-era Reagan photos.  Nowhere was there any sign of current President George W. Bush, whose own image was so carefully crafted in the same western-style.

Which brings us to the booth's main table.  Here you'd find a survey sponsored by the Nebraska Republican Party that also served as a statewide raffle for tickets to a Cornhusker football game.  You'd also find an assortment of bumper stickers - most of which promoted John McCain for president or mocked liberals at $2 a piece.  Amongst those bumper stickers, though, was one other item that couldn't help but catch a person's eye because it went so much farther beyond the pale:

Click Image To Download Image

Yes, that is Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in a Muslim headdress.  On the left, you'll see ailing Sen. Ted Kennedy's signature as "Chief Socialism Adviser."  On the right, you'll see Al Sharpton's signature as Obama's spiritual advisor, with Obama proclaimed "The Prince of Platitudes" and "Da Man" - as if he'd come straight out of the ghetto.

Of course, we're all familiar with the low road tactics of the Republican Party.  But, the idea that they've found their way into our local county fairs, playing on such blatant racism and xenophobia to make so childish an attack against Barack Obama, is really just depressing.  This kind of attack is degrading to our democracy and an insult to the values at the true heart of our rural communities.

I can't say this was provided directly by the Nebraska Republican Party, but that would be your best bet considering the range of other items that were available.  These included a number of lit pieces supporting 1st District Congressman Jeff Fortenberry, as well as a curious, brand new, four-fold lit piece promoting Jon Bruning as Attorney General. . . although he's not up for re-election until 2010.  For some reason, there was even literature for State Senator Tony Fulton, who represents a Lincoln legislative district more than an hour and a half away.  Good luck explaining that one.

If this were just a matter of a renegade local Republican showing some very poor taste, we wouldn't really have a problem here.  What's so troubling is that the evidence suggests a much uglier effort coming directly from the Nebraska Republican Party, for which they should be embarrassed and ashamed.

This sort of politics has no place in Nebraska.  That's especially the case at a county fair, one of our state's most cherished and family-friendly traditions.  Today, that tradition has been mocked by the Republican Party and all those candidates who fall under its banner and share its table space.  Until they do the decent thing and denounce these tactics, each bears some share of responsibility for fostering an environment of intolerance and a politics of fear.  Shame on them all!

Kleeb Endorsed By Vets Organization, and Releases New Ad

by: Lisa Hannah

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 13:11:17 PM CDT

The Kleeb campaign released another new ad, which I happen to catch today on the KHAS-TV. Looks like the campaign is starting to kick into high gear:

Scott Kleeb also received a great endorsement today from the Veterans and Military Families for Progress.  

Scott Kleeb Hitting The Airwaves During Olympics' Opening Ceremony

by: Kyle Michaelis

Thu Aug 07, 2008 at 20:34:15 PM CDT

When Nebraskans sit down to watch the opening ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing, they'll also be seeing the following advertisement by our Democratic Senate candidate, Scott Kleeb.

Labor Day is considered the traditional start of the real campaign season, but I'm damn glad to see Kleeb kicking things off on his own time table.    And, the fact that he's hitting the airwaves during such a high-profile event (which is certain to have cost a pretty penny) is just the sort of bold move for which we've been waiting.

Ironically, what might be the boldest about this ad is its relatively subdued tone.  I like that.  I like that a lot.  When so many people in this state are yet to get a real sense of the candidate, I like the idea of that first impression being one of Scott as a real human being.

At a time when a vapid media increasingly turns our politicians into mere celebrities, it's a very positive sign that Kleeb would take this opportunity to put aside the flash and just be a person.  A Nebraskan.  A father.  A man with concerns no different than yours or mine.  The only difference is that he's laying so much on the line to do something about it.

Celebrating this ad and the message it sends to the people of Nebraska, it only seems appropriate to declare "Let the games begin."  But, we know that this election isn't about games.  And, the people of Nebraska are about to see that Scott Kleeb knows it as well.

Terry Demands Esch Apologize to Himself

by: Scott Packer

Thu Aug 07, 2008 at 01:02:01 AM CDT

Lee Terry has, and continues to goad the local media into treating him like a golden child when he feeds them quotes based on information that is clearly taken out of context. KETV Channel 9 reports that the Esch-Terry race is heating up due to Mr. Esch's recent comments that some on the pro-life side of the abortion argument are more extremist than others. Terry's parry?

If Mr. Terry had read the City Weekly article in question himself, instead of having subordinates spoon feed him partial quotes, than he would have read the following, from Mr. Esch's own mouth,

So, who does Terry think Esch will apologize to? Himself? You have to give Terry credit though, only he could try to sneak in a swipe at Esch for being pro-choice based on an article where Esch is endorsed by a pro-life group.

But perhaps lost in the he said-she said of the matter is the fact that some pro-lifers are guilty of some pretty extremist stuff. The NAF has compiled statistics on incidents of violence and disruption against abortion clinics. Since 1977, there have been 1,358 cases of vandalism at clinics, 41 bombings of clinics, with 385 other bombing attempts. In 2001, there were 554 anthrax threats. Since 1992, clinics have reported 311 death threats.

Congressman Terry, Do you think that bombing clinics is the act of a normal pro-lifer, or that of an extremist? Do you think death threats are appropriate?