Merkin Valdez vs. J. D. Durbin

by mckeeno on Jan 12, 2006 8:15 PM EST

I think Merkin Valdez and J.D. Durbin make an interesting comparison. Both are guys with great fastballs and solid second pitches (Valdez' change-up, Durbin's curve) that have had trouble mastering a 3rd pitch. Both are former BA top 100 guys who have dropped from that level due to lack of performance at higher levels and injuries. Lastly, they both may be better suited to the back-end of a bullpen rather than the back-end of a rotation.

Do you think either sticks as a starter? If moved to the bullpen, can they become top closers? 8th-inning guys?

Who will have the better career?

Poll

Who will have the better career?

60%

Merkin Valdez

63 votes

40%

J.D. Durbin

42 votes

105 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

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Comments

Durbin is a reliever I think

The fact that his third pitch isn't great coupled with the great depth of the Twins' system leads me to believe that Durbin will be moved to the pen.

by limozeen on Jan 12, 2006 8:20 PM EST 0 recs

Valdez

2006 should be a very telling year for Valdez. The Giants haven't given up on him as a starter. The word is that he has been working on his secondary stuff in instructional league and is showing a lot of improvement. It's also possible that some of his disappointing showing last year was due to concentrating on developing his secondary stuff and he was just showing growing pains. The plan is for him to be a starter in Fresno. The PCL is a tough, tough place to pitch. If he can hold his own, he could be almost ready. Then again, he's going on 24 yo. any stumbles and he may be done. He could end up as a Felix Rodriguez type setup man.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 12, 2006 9:00 PM EST 0 recs

He is 24!

vAldez isn't just going on 24, he IS 24 as of November, 2005.

by DrBGiantsfan on Jan 12, 2006 9:37 PM EST up 0 recs

Opportunity

I also see Valdez possibly getting more of a shot with the Giants than Durbin does with the Twins. The Twins' staff just seems so loaded that it's hard to imagine them giving Durbin much of a shot this year -- at least as a starter. The Giants have two older guys (Schmidt, Morris) with some injury history and three younger guys (Lowry, Cain, Hennessey) who haven't quite broken through yet to becoming consistent rotation anchors, so the chances of Valdez getting some starts this year aren't bad.

by Flynn Blake on Jan 12, 2006 9:23 PM EST 0 recs

honestly

Durbin at this point isnt even a twins Top 15 starting pitching prospect, due to his falling off a bit and our quality.

by hotshotschamp on Jan 13, 2006 2:39 AM EST 0 recs

Twins set-up depth

Has been incredible the last number of years. But with Hawkins, Guardado, Romero and Bowyer gone, that really only leaves Rincon and Crain, with outside possibilities like Guerrier. I think the Twins have had no reason at all to move Durbin from SP up until possibly now.

They may need him in relief this year or next, and with the crush of starters soon to move past him, it all makes sense. Actually, two starters (Liriano, Baker) have already passed him. Bonser is his equal. He'll never survive what's coming.

OTOH, a lot of improvement (mentally) can come from sitting out due to injury. Just watching and getting away from "doing" sometimes is the best teacher there is. If he's healthy this year, he may well have figured out how to change things up, so to speak.

by tmelander on Jan 13, 2006 12:57 PM EST 0 recs

Durbin the closer in Rochester?

I look for Guerrier to get more work later in games and for his long role to go to the winner of the competition between one of the following: Willie Eyre, Boof Bonsor, and Durbin. As Romero flamed out last year (or it finally became apparent to Gardenhoser that he couldn't cut it), Guerrier got more set-up work and Mulholland became the long man. The Twins also plan to replace Romero with a true LOOGY from outside, probably Gabe White.

Going into the spring, Eyre is the front runner for the long role (despite his age) because of his excellent numbers at AAA last year and even better numbers in Venezuela. Bonsor is next, and then Durbin. Of the three, Durbin is the only one with an electric fastball. But that role tends to favor guys with a more complete assortment of pitches who can take the game from the third or fourth inning into the seventh.

If I were the GM, I would send Durbin down and make him the closer in Rochester (similar to what they did with Bowyer last year) in preperation for more of a set-up role later in the year. That would leave Pat Neshek and Beau Kemp in the set-up role in Rochester. Any one of those three could break in next year as an injury replacement for Rincon, Crain, or Guerrier.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 13, 2006 1:31 PM EST 0 recs

Great idea.

The thing is that Terry Ryan could trade a Rincon/Crain if he needed to and really not suffer a huge letdown if he had players like Eyre, Durbin, Neshek, Bonser ready to step-in. I think that the time for JD Durbin the starter has passed but I think that he could be a well above average set-up man. Good thinking with the post above

by Terry Ryan Jr on Jan 13, 2006 3:03 PM EST up 0 recs

Twins Bullpen

The Twins have three veteran lefties competing for bullpen spots in May, White and Reyes. My guess is that two of them may very well be on the opening day roster replacing Mulholland and Romero. That doesn't really leave any spots for prospects. So Durbin would have to be better than two of those guys and I doubt that happens.

I expect Durbin to be part of a very strong Rochester rotation to start next year. Last spring he was being touted as competing for a major league rotation spot. I don't think the Twins will give up on him just yet as a starter. If he struggles at Rochester he will move to the bullpen once there are guys at New Britain ready to move up.

I don't know enough about Valdez to compare the two, but I don't really expect Durbin to have much of a major league career.

by TT on Jan 13, 2006 10:21 PM EST 0 recs

Durbin's best role

Perhaps the Twins haven't given up on him as a starter, but, if so, I believe that is a mistake. He's spent six years in the minors trying to learn an off-speed pitch and he has not yet mastered one well enough to feature it in a game. And he's been injured the last two years. These two reasons alone make him a bullpen guy, IMO.

Combine that with his Crain-like short-arm delivery and his Crain-like stature, and I'm surprised the Twins havn't converted him to a reliever yet. Perhaps they're just trying to build his arm up while having him work on things as a starter in the minors. Lots of guys who start in the minors do so for the sake of relieving in the majors (e.g. J.C. Romero).

He does have two major league pitches, which is one more than Travis Bowyer. So I think he could be an effective reliever. But it's tough to win in the majors as a starter if you can't at least show a change-up or fork ball. Considering that his best chance of having a succesful major league career is in the bullpen, I would start giving him presure opportunities now.

Also, the Twins farm system is about to overwhelm Durbin in the starter role. I project Liriano, Bonsor, Gassner, Blackburn, and Perkins in the rotation at Rochester. If Durbin is there, Perkins goes to New Britain, which wouldn't be the end of the world to start the year. But the Twins will likely need to make room for him at midseason, when guys like Swarzak and Rainville push for promotions from Fort Myers. To start the year, the New Britain rotation should feature Miller, Jones, Harben, Simonitch, and either Yeatman, Speigner, or Mijares. The last three get pushed to bullpen roles if Perkins is there. I'd rather have, the 21-year old Mijares starting than the 24 year old Durbin.

And this is just the start of a flood of talent from the lower levels that will overwhelm Durbin by the end of the year if he doesn't put it together. Like Bowyer before him, his best chance to put it together is in the bullpen.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 14, 2006 9:42 AM EST up 0 recs

Flood versus Wave

"He's spent six years in the minors trying to learn an off-speed pitch "

Durbin pitched 2 innings his first year and 30 his second. Last year was his first full year at AAA. I think good organizations like the Twins are going to have more patience than that.

I am not sure Blackburn, Gassner or Bonser are better prospects than Durbin at this point. None of them are very likely to make it in the major leagues as starters. And you can almost guarantee some of those guys who were at A ball and lower last year will stumble, like Durbin, or get hurt before they even start to challenge at AAA. That flood will be just a wave by the time it hits the beach.

Durbin might get caught in a numbers game at some point. And I think its likely he will end up in the bullpen in the major leagues. But I think the Twins are going to give him at least one more chance to put it together as a starter. Even if they project him for the bullpen, they will want to give him as many innings as they can next year. The best way to do that is in the rotation.

I'd rather have, the 21-year old Mijares starting than the 24 year old Durbin.

I don't think those two things are related. Durbin's timeline is a much shorter. Durbin's development is directed at getting him ready to help the Twins this year, not at some distant point in the distant future. He's competing with guys at AAA who are in the same position and guys on the major league roster.

by TT on Jan 14, 2006 11:09 AM EST up 0 recs

Bonsor

I agree that Gassner and Blackburn are below Durbin in prospect status, but Bonsor is not. He's a former number 1 choice who led the International League in strikeouts last year. And he has three pitches. He's much closer to cracking the majors than Durbin is, at least as a starter. And neither Blackburn nor Gassner project as relievers. Most organizations project control pitchers as fifth starters.

Again, if you want to get Durbin ready to help the Twins this year, make him the closer in Rochester. He's much more likely to have a Bowyer-like year in that role than to beome a better starting prospect than Liriano or Bonsor. Durbin would be the third starter in Rochester, if camp broke today. He's more likely to break down in that role than the Twins are to have a starting opportunity for their eighth starter.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 14, 2006 12:03 PM EST 0 recs

Bonser versus Durbin

Again, if you want to get Durbin ready to help the Twins this year, make him the closer in Rochester.

We'll see what the Twins do, but I think the more Durbin pitches the better. And that means keeping him in the rotation.

Most organizations project control pitchers as fifth starters.

I don't think that is really true. I think most minor league control guys are projected for middle relief or AAAA depth. Its tough to be successful in the major leagues without a consistent 90 mph fastball. I don't know where Blackburn and Gassner top out, but I would bet its around that.

He's a former number 1 choice who led the International League in strikeouts last year.

Its been a long time since Bonser was a number one draft choice, I don't think that matters much at this point. Durbin was a number two choice the same year wasn't he? Both these guys had tools when they were drafted. Bonser had a better year last year than Durbin and Durbin was better the year before. I think Durbin is still a step ahead of Bonser on the prospect list, but both of them have work to do if they are going to have major league careers.

by TT on Jan 14, 2006 2:17 PM EST 0 recs

I don't know why I bother

I think I've told you before that arguing with you is like arguing with a stump; it's pointless. But I can't let this one go.

On his recent chat on MLB.com, Terry Ryan mentioned Baker, Liriano, Bonsor, and Guerrier as candidates for the fifth starter spot. He also mentioned 10 players in the system he rates very highly and did not mention Durbin relative to this question.

I trust Terry Ryan's assessment over yours here.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 14, 2006 4:01 PM EST up 0 recs

Ryan

Ryan isn't infallible. Why on earth does Lohse still have a spot in the rotation?

"IsoD, IsoP, K/BB, BABIP are weak stats" DrB

by natsfan2005 on Jan 14, 2006 5:05 PM EST up 0 recs

Lohse

First of all, the GM is the one pulling the strings. So if the question is, who has the better chance of making an impact with the club in 2006? Ryan's assessment is the most relevant.

But as to Lohse, he's not great, but he's not bad either. Look at all the middling number four starters getting between $20 and $30 million over three years and you will get a good idea of Lohse's value on the market.

And if you were paying attention, you might have noticed that he threw 15 quality starts in his last 20 starts last year, after making some key mechanical adjustments and abandoning his HR pitch, the curve ball. If he sticks with the program, he projects to give the Twins 20 quality starts in 2006. That's pretty good for $5 million.

On the question of Lohse, Ryan explicitly said, "You can't have too many starting pitchers on your roster," which you've probably heard from many a GM over the years. Guys get hurt. Guys unexpectedly struggle. You don't just trade a 26-year-old pitcher who consistently has given you 180 to 200 innings over four years if you can fill your holes through other means.

Now suppose Lohse sticks with the program and gives you 10 out of 15 quality starts in the first half of the year. And suppose Baker continues to pitch as he did in his 8 starts in the majors last year (five quality starts). Also suppose Liriano pitches like he did in AAA last year. And the top three starters on the Twins have no health problems. In other words, best case scenario, you could trade Lohse before the deadline to fill a hole that emerges during the season, say, at third base.

Worst case scenario, Radke or Silva suffer an injury, or Baker struggles. You will need Lohse to give your rotation stability.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 14, 2006 6:08 PM EST up 0 recs

too hittable

Lohse has given up a combined 80 more hits than IP the last two years. His K rate are lousy as well. At 5 mil, with all the pitching they have nearly ready I'd jettison him and let the Liriano era begin. Shoulda spent that $5mil on offense.

"IsoD, IsoP, K/BB, BABIP are weak stats" DrB

by natsfan2005 on Jan 14, 2006 6:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Conventional wisdom

That seems to be the conventional SABR wisdom. Ironically, the adjustments Anderson had Lohse make reduced his strikeouts and increased his hits. He made him into more of a contact pitcher, similar to what he did with Crain. So Anderson's philosophy does not jive with SABR wisdom that favors nibblers who get a lot of strikeouts on long counts.

Anderson's ideal pitcher is Silva, who had the fewest pitches per inning last year, but also had very few strikeouts. That is the style Lohse adopted that allowed him to go deeper into games and get a lot more quality starts. It also helped him stay out of the big inning by coaxing a lot more double plays. Quality starts are the most important stat in my book, for starters anyway. The other SABR peripherals are nice to have, but not at the expense of quality starts. When Lohse tried to be a strikeout pitcher, he threw 100 pitches in 5 innings and got the hook.

He will be helped out a lot by having Castillo at second, as will all the starters, especially Silva. That trade alone turned the team's biggest weakness into a key strength. Ryan got the DH he wanted for less money than he would have spent on anybody else out there. And he got a bargain basemanet third baseman who brings what the team lacked the most last year--fly ball power.

Some would say Ryan should have traded Lohse and used his money on a real third baseman. I don't think it's that simple. Daniels wanted either Baker or Liriano for Blalock, and I would not trade either for him. Mueller was available for Lohse money but he didn't want to come to the Twins, and he's really not a good fit for the line-up with all the OBP guys they already have. Beyond that, there really weren't any other options. He couldn't trade Lohse and work out a deal with Toronto for Koskie in the time he was given--two days--even if he'd wanted to.

We shall see if Batista helps the team score runners from third with less than two outs, which was the difference in at least 20 one-run games last year (Cuddyer groundind into 15 double plays in those situations alone). If Batista does not do for the Twins what he did for, say, Montreal in 2004, Ryan can exploe trading Lohse before the dealine, when he's likely to get more for him than he would have in the offseason.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 14, 2006 6:48 PM EST up 0 recs

Batista

He's a nice candidate to win the Hacking Mass award... but I wouldn't count on him to improve the offense.

"IsoD, IsoP, K/BB, BABIP are weak stats" DrB

by natsfan2005 on Jan 14, 2006 7:12 PM EST up 0 recs

drinking the kool aid

You clearly are buying what Anderson is selling...

But Lohse had a WHIP over 1.40, if you are going to pitch to contact you better be in that 1.10-1.20 WHIP range that Silva and Radke have occasionally notched. High base runner counts plus inability to rear back and get the K when you need it isn't a good combo.

"IsoD, IsoP, K/BB, BABIP are weak stats" DrB

by natsfan2005 on Jan 14, 2006 7:38 PM EST up 0 recs

Anderson's not infalible

But it's tough to argue with the results. If a guy is a true strikeout pitcher like Santana, he doesn' t mess with him. But if a guy's best chance to get outs is through more ground balls, he'll encourage the guy to make that adjustment. Lohse's peripherals (WHIP) improved after he made the adjustment. So it's working.

Not every pitcher can strike out major league hitters whenever they need to. Radke and Silva sure can't. The reason they have such low WHIP numbers is they don't walk batters. That also was Lohse's biggest improvement after the adjustments.

And I wouldn't take everything Ryan says on face value. He will support his player in the press until that guy is not his player anymore (e.g. Jacque Jones). That's just good policy. But if a deal came along that gave him more value for Lohse than he's worth to the Twins, he would take it. That deal hasn't materialized, in part because guys like Weaver and Millwood were out there. Once those guys are signed and the only way teams can upgrade their staffs is through trades, a deal for Lohse that suits Ryan's criteria might materialize sooner than the deadline.

He did say in the interview that, "Unless a guy is not a fit, you don't just trade him to trade him. We did that with JC Romero because it was clear that he was not a fit. But if a guy has talent and he fits your team, you hang onto him." In the next sentence, he said anybody's available for the right price. But he doens't shop talented players who fit his team.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 15, 2006 10:56 AM EST up 0 recs

Ryan on Jones

I wouldn't take everything Ryan says on face value. He will support his player in the press until that guy is not his player anymore (e.g. Jacque Jones). That's just good policy.

Terry Ryan has been talking up Jacque Jones even after he left the Twins. Some Twins fans have a tendency to think he is not being candid when he just doesn't share their opinion.

Lohse has got a lot of people out the last few years. He's put up 170-200 innings each year. Ryan recognizes the value of that.

by TT on Jan 15, 2006 11:54 AM EST up 0 recs

Durbin

On his recent chat on MLB.com, Terry Ryan mentioned Baker, Liriano, Bonsor, and Guerrier as candidates for the fifth starter spot.

I didn't hear that and, having just listened to it, he didn't exactly say it. He mentioned that they didn't bring Mays back because they needed to give guys like those four their chances.

But it did appear he at least thinks Bonser may be in the mix this year, which does surprise me. I don't think Durbin is on the radar screen for any role out of spring training this year. I could be wrong about that too. We'll see how it plays out.

He also mentioned 10 players in the system he rates very highly and did not mention Durbin relative to this question.

I missed that question entirely. The only list of prospects I heard was from the last couple drafts. Was there another list? Who were the ten?

I trust Terry Ryan's assessment over yours here.

He also explicitly said that he saw Gassner's major league opportunity in a Terry Mulholland middle relief role. So I guess on that one I got ir right.

by TT on Jan 14, 2006 5:23 PM EST 0 recs

Top 10 prospects

The specific question wasn't: who are the top 10 propsects? It was more like, which one prospect stands out in the system? Ryan mentioned about five or six guys, (Matt Garza, Paul Kelly, Anthony Swarzak, Jay Rainville, Drew Thomson, Glenn Perkins, maybe one or two more) mostly from the last two drafts. He did not mention Durbin during the entire chat.

I could see Gassner taking Mulholland's role, if he beats out Eyre and May. I don't think the long role needs to be a lefty. If Eyre outpitches those guys in spring training, the job would be his. My money is on Eyre, based on what he did last spring, at AAA and in winter ball. But Gassner has a chance to make the club.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 14, 2006 6:22 PM EST 0 recs

Ryan Interveiw

It was more like, which one prospect stands out in the system?

I suggest you listen to the interview again. The question was very specific to the last couple drafts. Which is why all the names mentioned were recent draftees.

He did not mention Durbin during the entire chat.

I don't know why he would have. He didn't mention Span or Moses either.

But Gassner has a chance to make the club.

He's on the roster, so I guess so.

The most interesting comment was when he said if Pridie was any good he would be on the roster. He pointed out Santana hadn't really done anything for the team his first couple years and they had managed to carry him on the roster.

The second most interesting comment was that Punto, Castro and Bartlett are all competing for the starting shorstop spot.

Lohse has given up a combined 80 more hits than IP the last two years. His K rate are lousy as well.

I don't think anyone cares how a pitcher gets guys out as long as he does. Terry Ryan clearly doesn't.

I think he has said several times that he doesn't want that much youth and inexperience at the back of the rotation. They are already counting on someone to step up and take the fifth spot in the rotation. Why roll the dice on a second spot? The chances you are going to get lucky twice is not all that high, even with the best prospects who appear ready. And history says its pretty likely you will need a sixth starter at some point as well.

I don't think its at all likely Lohse is going anywhere during the season unless he flames out and they decide to unload him to create room for someone. At least, not if they are in the pennant race.

by TT on Jan 14, 2006 6:56 PM EST 0 recs

Aye...

I don't think anyone cares how a pitcher gets guys out as long as he does. Terry Ryan clearly doesn't.>>>>

Well yea, technically Loshe gets those outs but it takes him a bit longer than say...a half decent pitcher.

He's got good control, but his K:BB is pretty damn close to 1. His K/9 is ridicuously low. He gives up a crapload of hits and HRs too...

I'd rather give his spot two one of the two rookies, as I think both will outperform him.

by SenorGato88 on Jan 16, 2006 1:33 AM EST 0 recs

One thing on Anderson....

The "control" thing he seems to have with the Twins staff, at least with guys like Loshe and Santana is more of a "throw it down the middle" kind of thing. Santana doesn't have great control at all, but he's got such filthy stuff he gets away with it. He actually misses ALOT with his fastball and slider, but he's

Its one reason why I think that rotation is pretty homer prone.

But that does not seem to be bothering them at all, its definitely not the pitching or their HR proneness that they need worry about. And without anything in front of me I don't think anyone is drastic with the HR/9.

by SenorGato88 on Jan 16, 2006 1:44 AM EST 0 recs

Santana and Lohse

Santana does have games where he struggles with control, but they're pretty rare--like one out of five. Most of the time, he spots the fastball and the slider. And he has the best change-up control I've seen since Frank Viola. The only guy on the staff who throws it down the middle consistently is Silva. And he can get away with it because he has the heaviest sinker in the majors.

Everyone who cites Lohse's stats neglects the fact that he was terrible in April, May and part of June. After captiulating with Anderson's changes, he was good. Look at his month-to-month data and you'll see what I mean. In the last three months of the season, he was well above league average in several key metrics. I don't think he'll ever be great. But he's an experienced guy who will give you innings. And if he continues to pitch like he did after the adjustments, he's better than Liriano, at least until Liriano learns to spot the fastball.

cmathewson

by cmathewson on Jan 16, 2006 11:00 AM EST 0 recs

Lohse

I'd rather give his spot two one of the two rookies, as I think both will outperform him.

I think that is doubtful. If one of them outperforms Lohse by giving them 180+ innings this year the Twins will be very happy.

He gives up a crapload of hits

Which is why Lohse is a number four starter. If he ever gains control of his stuff consistently, he will be a top of the rotation starter. But his contribution to the team is putting up consistent innings. Having starters who consistently keep the bullpen in their chairs until the 6th inning makes a huge difference.

by TT on Jan 16, 2006 1:13 PM EST 0 recs