I am now working on the Baltimore Orioles for the book. Here is a thread to discuss this system.

Interesting stuff at the top...Wieters and Tillman of course, plus some intriguing mid-level guys, though they could use more depth.

Arizona Diamondbacks Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) Jarrod Parker, RHP, Grade B+: Fine combination of performance, command, and plus stuff.
2) Daniel Schlereth, LHP, Grade B: Excellent stuff, but command and health record are concerns.
3) Gerardo Parra, OF, Grade B-: Does he have enough power to play a corner? Still quite young
4) Cesar Valdez, RHP, Grade B-: I like him, improved K/IP rate in Double-A a nice marker.
5) Wade Miley, LHP, Grade B-: Good stuff from the left stuff, needs more polish as he moves up.
6) Bryan Shaw, RHP, Grade B-: Throws hard, gets grounders, didn’t thrive in first exposure.
7) Trevor Harden, RHP, Grade B-: Dominated Pioneer League, good stuff, terrific ratios.
8) Kevin Eichhorn, RHP, Grade C+: Good bloodlines, polished for his age, lacks a plus fastball.
9) Barry Enright, RHP, Grade C+: Polished college pitcher who throws strikes with average stuff.
10) Collin Cowgill, OF, Grade C+: Huge numbers in college didn’t carry to A-ball, small guy.
11) Evan Frey, OF, Grade C: Very fast, hits for average, lack of power may be a problem in AA.
12) Tony Barnette, RHP, Grade C: Polished pitcher who throws strikes with average stuff.
13) Billy Buckner, RHP, Grade C: Regressed last year, quality of stuff slipped when I saw him.
14) Hector Ambriz, RHP, Grade C: Polished pitcher who throws strikes with average stuff.
15) Brooks Brown, RHP, Grade C: Has lost velocity since college, command also a problem.
16) Bryan Augenstein, RHP, Grade C: Polished pitcher who throws strikes with average stuff.
17) Wes Roemer, RHP, Grade C: Polished pitcher who throws strikes with average stuff.
18) Josh Collmenter, RHP, Grade C: Polished pitcher who throws strikes with average stuff.
19) Leo Rosales, RHP, Grade C: Can be a decent middle reliever in the majors
20) Josh Whitesell, 1B, Grade C: Veteran minor league slugger had great year in Triple-A.

Others: Pedro Ciriaco, Pete Clifford, Jamie D’Antona, Ed Easley, Juan Gutierrez, Mark Hallberg, Taylor Harbin, Reid Mahon, Scott Maine, Pat McAnaney, Reynaldo Navarro, Kyler Newby, Rossmel Perez, Dan Stange, Matt Torra, Jason Urquidez, and Ryne White. All of these guys are Grade Cs, and all of them could slot just about anywhere in the 11-20 range depending on what you want to emphasize. If you want upside, you can replace Some of the strike throwers or Whitesell on the list with guys like Ciriaco, Perez, Navarro, or Stange.

If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF: Trades and major league graduations have torn the entrails out of this system. Aside from Parker and Schlereth, no one here looks like a real impact talent to me. There are a lot of “pitchability” guys drafted from the college ranks, but few pitchers with strong upside. Some of these control guys will turn into useful major league pitchers, but it is hard to tell which ones at this point. The system is also very short on impact hitting talent.

As always, profiles on all these guys and over 1,000 more are in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book! Order Early and Order Often! 

Still slogging away with the Arizona system.

Is it just me, or has this system really gone downhill? I'm giving an awful lot of Grade Cs so far.

Things have returned to close-to-normal around here, so I am now plugging away again at the Diamondbacks. To keep you busy, here are a couple of player comments from the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book, to give new readers a feel for what the comments are like. Sorry about the font problem in this post, the software does not like my attempts to cut-and-paste these comments. Rest assured in the book it is all in the proper font.

Dan Cortes, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Bats: R    Throws: R     HT: 6-5     WT: 205   DOB: March 4, 1987

(stats will go here)
One of the brighter lights in the Royals system, Cortes made a reasonably successful transition to Double-A last year. Compared to 2007, he had slight slippages in all ratios, but scouts were still impressed with him overall. His velocity was down early in the season and he missed two weeks with a strained quad muscle, but by the end of the year he had his 91-95 MPH fastball back in full gear. Cortes continued to refine his curveball and changeup, but still needs to improve his command within the strike zone. Although often reported in the press as a ground ball pitcher, his GO/AO ratios consistently show him as a fly ball type, and he could be vulnerable to home runs at higher levels. I think Cortes will need at least 15 starts at the Triple-A level to put the finishing touches on his game. If he gets pushed at a faster pace, he is more likely to struggle. He gets the same Grade B rating he got from me last year.

Joseph Cruz, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

Bats: R    Throws: R     HT: 6-4     WT: 190   DOB: July 20, 1988

(stats will go here) 
Cruz was drafted by the Rays in the 30^th round in 2007, from East Los Angeles Junior College. He is an under-the-radar guy, but has sleeper potential, being tall and projectable and already effective in pro ball. He flashes an above average fastball at times, hitting 93 MPH, but is still putting his secondary pitches together. He does throw strikes, and his K/BB and K/IP marks have been above average in the Appalachian League. We need to see what Cruz does against better hitters, but the Rays have had good success with similar pitchers, and I think he could take a step forward in 2009. Grade C but interesting.

Despite my best efforts, I am way behind on the Diamondbacks and will be for at least another day. So here is a discussion question to keep you entertained.

True or False Question One: Phil Hughes will never live up to his ultimate potential. Explain your answer.

True or False Question Two: Ian Kennedy WILL rebound in 2009 and end up having a very good career. Explain your answer.

In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved, and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders Fields.

Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders Fields.

- John McCrae

If you want to understand the last 94 years of human history, why things turned out the way they did, you have to understand the First World War.

Tampa Bay Rays Top 20 Prospects for 2009

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.

1) David Price, LHP, Grade A: Best pitching prospect in baseball, has everything you want.
2) Wade Davis, RHP, Grade B+: Should be ready sometime in 2009. Could be a Gil Meche type.

3) Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Grade B+: Excellent combination of command with solid stuff.

4) Tim Beckham, SS, Grade B+: Not great performance, but very young. I’m cutting him slack.

5) Desmond Jennings, OF, Grade B: I like him, power in doubt, hopefully shoulder will be OK.

6) Jeff Niemann, RHP, Grade B-: Nothing left to prove in minors. Should be solid but not great.
7) Nick Barnese, RHP, Grade B-: Following the Davis/Hellickson path. Breakout possible in ’09.

8) Jake Jefferies, C, Grade B-: I’m very impressed with his contact hitting skills. Power??

9) Matt Moore, LHP, Grade B-: Impressive lefty with plus stuff, another breakout candidate.

10) Reid Brignac, SS, Grade C+: Bat slipped while glove improved. Still young, could rebound.

11) John Jaso, C, Grade C+: Gets on base, flashes power, defense acceptable, needs a chance.

12) Jacob McGee, LHP, Grade C+: Would be B+ if not for Tommy John surgery.

13) Eduardo Morlan, RHP, Grade C+: I still like him, though shoulder is a concern.

14) Fernando Perez, OF, Grade C+: Very fast, a bit of pop, good glove, high K-rate a worry.

15) Mitch Talbot, RHP, Grade C+: Average stuff, throws strikes, could be an effective swingman.

16) Heath Rollins, RHP, Grade C+: Could be a lot like Talbot. Throws strikes, good stat record.

17) Reid Fronk, OF, Grade C+: Need to see at higher levels. Like the power, walk rate in Sally.

18) Kyle Lobstein, LHP, Grade C+: Just getting started, fits into Rays pitching program well.

19) Emeel Salem, OF, Grade C+: Very fast, polished hitter, should move up fast if healthy.

20) Albert Suarez, RHP, Grade C+: Heavy sinker, must refine breaking stuff. 2010 breakthrough?

Others include Alex Cobb, Jason Corder, Joseph Cruz, Neal Frontz, Justin Garcia, Glenn Gibson, Matt Gorgen, Austin Hinkle, James Houser, Rhyne Hughs, Keyong Kang, Chris Mason, Ty Morrison, Chris Nowak, Ryan Reid, Ryan Royster, Justin Ruggiano, and Mike Sheridan.

If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.

SYSTEM IN BRIEF:

   The farm system has thinned out a bit but remains impressive overall, and particularly rich in pitching. I like the way the Rays handle high school pitchers, usually starting them off in rookie ball, then moving them to the New York-Penn League their second year, then into full-season ball in their third season. They could use some additional hitting depth, which is the main weakness I see right now.

Next up is the Arizona Diamondbacks

Full reports on all these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. The book ships January 31st, but we love pre-orders!! Order early and order often! 

I am buried in the book right now. I will finish the Rays sometime Sunday and should have the Top 20 for you Sunday evening. After that, the next teams on the schedule are the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Baltimore Orioles, the Washington Nationals, and the Chicago Cubs. I am going to push really hard on the book this week.

Nate McLouth won a Gold Glove today. Most fans know litlte about him, so I thought he would be a good candidate for a prospect retro.

McLouth was drafted in the 25th round in 2000, out of high school in Whitehall, Michigan. Originally a second baseman, he was considered to be a good athlete with a measure of baseball polish, but was undersized at 5-10 and had a firm committment to the University of Michigan. He signed late but he did sign, then made his pro debut in 2001 as an outfielder.

It was a successful debut: .285/.371/.464 with 21 steals in 96 games for Hickory in the Sally League, skipping short-season and rookie ball entirely. Although he didn't receive much attention, his performance for Hickory was excellent: +23 OPS, with strong plate discipline and broad skills. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2002 book, noting that he was "the definition of a sleeper."

Moved up to Lynchburg in the Carolina League in 2002, he slumped, hitting just .244/.324/.392 though with 20 steals in 114 games. He retained good command of the strike zone, but his production dropped off in most categories and he looked overmatched much of the time. Granted, he was just 20 years old. I did not put him in the 2003 book for space reasons, but had him rated as a Grade C prospect, though still very young.

Returned to Lynchburg in 2003, he rebounded with a .300/.386/.411 mark, with 40 steals in 44 attempts and a +14 percent OPS. Again, his strike zone judgment was very strong. I wrote that McLouth was one of several "outfield prospects in the walk/steal category" that the Pirates had, and that he could "end up as the best of the lot." Grade C+.

Some scouts were still skeptical about how he would fare against advanced pitching, but he answered those questions in 2004, with a .322/.384/.462 mark with 31 steals for Double-A Altoona. He was now getting attention for strong outfield defense as well. I gave him a Grade B- in the 2005 book, liking the broad skill base but projecting him as a really good fourth outfielder but possibly not a regular if the power did not maintain.

McLouth's power dropped off in 2005 at Triple-A, though he remained solid with a .297/.364/.401 mark and 34 steals. He hit .257/.305/.450 in a 41-games trial with the Pirates, giving him a strong shot at an outfield job in 2006. I lowered his grade in the '06 book to C+, but again pointed to him as a very good foutth outfielder.

He filled that role in 2006 for Pittsburgh, struggling wiht a .233/.293/.385 mark but showing good speed and defense. However, he was more effective in 2007 at .258/.351/.459 with 22 steals, and in 2008 he became a full-time regular, with a .276/.356/.497 mark, 46 doubles, 26 homers, 65 walks, 23 steals, and the aforementioned Gold Glove.

McLouth has always had good physical tools, strong baseball skills, and a terrific work ethic. What he lacked was size and home run pop. The power spike over the last two seasons has pushed him beyond the fourth outfield role and wasn't really predicted by his minor league track record, though in the minors he did show respectable pop at times. He turned 27 a few days ago and is now entering his peak seasons. It will be interesting to see if he gets better than he already is.

Jason Donald, SS, Philadelphia Phillies: Looks pretty good with the bat, as expected. I focused more on his defense. He clearly has the arm strength for shortstop, but I thought his range was very marginal, especially to his right. I think he is best off at second base. He could likely play third just fine but might not have enough power for that position. Don't see how he fits into a Phillies lineup, so either trade bait or super-utility may be his role.

Greg Halman, OF, Seattle Mariners: First time I have seen him. Tools are obvious...lanky, fast, lean, strong. He crushed a fastball for about a 440 foot homer. He also swung and missed on almost every breaking ball thrown to him. That's going to be a big problem.

Austin Jackson, OF, New York Yankees: Not as toolsy as Halman, but a sound athlete in his own right. To be honest, he didn't look to me like he's going to develop much home run power. I thought his swing was too level for that. It was just one game and I'm no expert on swing mechanics though.

Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins: This guy looked great. Very fast bat, quick, relatively short swing, works the count well. Scouts are arguing over how much home run power he will develop, if he'll be a 15-20 homer guy or a 25-30 homer guy. Given his youth and continued improvement, I am very optimistic.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers: He looked great too. Very mobile for his size, good swing with a slight but not extreme uppercut, excellent plate discipline. Teixeira-like outcome is quite possible.

Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds: He has clearly shortened up his swing since I saw him in college. I think this will help him overall, but I'm uncertain now about what his power development is going to look like. Will improved OBP and BA make up for any slippage in SLG?

Chris Valaika, SS, Cincinnati Reds: Impressive bat, swung at pitches outside the zone but still made hard contact on them and drove the ball. Did not get a good read on his defense, but the hitting looks good to me.