Mile High Delphi

President: Obama 364 McCain 174 Obama is our projected winner.
Senate: Democrats 59 Republicans 41 Democrats pick up eight seats.
House: Democrats 255-265 Republicans 180-170. Democratic pickup of 20-30 seats.

Colorado:
Senate: Udall Democratic Pickup
House: CO-1 D, CO-2 D, CO-3 D, CO-4 Toss up, CO-5 R, CO-6 R, CO-7 D

State Senate: Democrats 19 Republicans 16. Republicans pickup SD 19 (Westminster and Arvada).
State House: 37 Democrats, 26 Republicans and 2 Toss ups.

Districts without elections: 16 divided R-8 D-8

Districts with elections: 19 current makeup R-7 D-12

Projected make up: R-16 D-19

District Breakdown:

Republican Held:

SD-4: Safe Republican District. Mark Sheffel (R) is our projected winner.

SD-8: Competitive District. Al White (R) vs. Ken Brenner (D). White had 10K on hand from the last report. Brenner had 12K cash on hand. White out spent and out raised Brenner so we are leaning towards White. Republican Hold.

SD-10: Safe Republican District. Bill Cadman (R) is our projected winner.

SD-12: Safe Republican District. Keith King (R) is our projected winner.

SD-23: Competitive District. Shawn Mitchell (R) vs. Joe Whitcomb (D). Mitchell had 49K cash on hand from the last report. Whitcomb had 4K cash on hand. Mitchell outspent Whitcomb so we are leaning towards Mitchell. Republican hold.

SD-26: Competitive District. Lauri Clapp (R) vs. Linda Newell (D). Clapp had 25K cash on hand. Newell looks to have been outspent. Republican hold.

SD-27: Safe Republican. Nancy Spence (R) is our projected winner.

We project that the Republican's will lose 0 state senate seats. Any surprise will have to occur in either district 8, 23 or 26. It is a big if however, no State Senate candidate has won without outspending their competitor in competitive districts. In non-competitive districts no amount of spending can overcome the statistical power of partisan make up.

Democrat Held Districts:

SD-14: Competitive District. We project Bob Bacon (D) will easily hold his seat.

SD-16: Highly Competitive District. Dan Gibbs (D) vs. Don Ytterburg (R). Gibbs had 10K cash on hand from the last report. Ytterberg had about 10K on hand also. However, it looks like he was simply outspent. Look for this district to remain in Democratic hands.

SD-17: Safe Democrat. We project Shaffer will easily hold his seat.

SD-18: Safe Democrat. We project Rollie Heath will win. Unopposed.

SD-19: Highly Competitive District. Open Seat. Evie Hadak (D) vs. Libby Szabo (R). Cash on hand: Hadak 20K Szabo 35K cash on hand. Szabo appears to have outspent Hadak, which will earn her this seat. Republican pickup.

SD-21: Safe Democrat. We project Betty Boyd (D) will win re-election.

SD-25: Safe Democrat. Mary Hodge (D), easy win.

SD-28, 29, 31, 33 and 35, all safe Democratic seats.

Overall we see the Democrats defending 11 of their 12 seats, losing only SD-19. It will take some major coat-tails for our prediction to be off.

House Districts 1-9 City and County of Denver. All Safe Democrat.

House Districts 10-13 Boulder, Gilpin and Clear Creek Counties. All Safe Democrat.

House Districts 14-21 El Paso and Fremont Counties. 6 Safe Republican 1 Republican Favored 1 Democrat Favored.

House Districts 22-29 Jefferson County. 1 Safe Republican, 2 Republican Favored, 1 Toss Up, 2 Leans Democrat, 2 Democrat Favored.

House Districts 30-35 Broomfield and Adams Counties. 5 Democrat, 1 Toss Up.

House Districts 36-42 Arapahoe and Elbert Counties. 3 Safe Republican (Including 1 pick up), 2 Safe Democrat, 1 Democrat Favored, 1 Leans Democrat.

House Districts 43-45 Douglas and Teller Counties. All Safe Republican.

House Districts 46 and 47 Pueblo. Safe Democrat.

House Districts 48-52 North Central Colorado. 48, 49, 51 Safe Republican, 52 Leans Democrat, 50, 53 Safe Democrat.

House Districts 54-62 Mountains and West Slope. 54, 57 and 60 Safe Republican. 58 and 59 Lean Republican. 55 Leans Democrat. 56, 61 and 62 Safe Democrat.

House Districts 63-65 East Plains. 63 and 65 Safe Republican. 64 Safe Democrat.

Labels: 2008 Final Projection, Colorado State House Projection

Here is our final US Senate Projection for the 2008 cycle. We are projecting a Democratic gain of 8 seats.

Here are the states that the Democrats should pick up, listed from most likely to least likely.

Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Minnesota.

Final Projection: 2008 US Senate 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans (including both independents as Democrats).

Labels: 2008 Final Projection, US Senate Projection

Overall ten states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Republican +2.

North Carolina: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NC-8 Toss Up.
South Carolina: No Change.
Georgia: GA-8 Toss Up.
Florida: House FL-8 GOP Hold, FL-16 GOP Pick Up, FL-21 GOP Hold, FL-24 Toss Up, FL-25 GOP Hold.
Alabama: House AL-2 GOP Hold, AL-5 Toss Up.
Tennessee: No Change.
Mississippi: House MS-1 Toss Up.
Arkansas: No Change.
Louisiana: House LA-6 Toss Up.
Texas: House TX-22 GOP Pick Up.

Labels: 2008 Final Projection, Regional Projections, US House Projection, US Senate Projection

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Democrat +1.

New Jersey: House NJ-3 Toss Up, NJ-7 Toss Up.
Delaware: No Change.
Maryland: No Change.
Virginia: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House VA-11 Democrat Pick Up.
West Virginia: No Change.
Kentucky: No Change.

Labels: 2008 Final Projection, Regional Projections, US House Projection, US Senate Projection

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change 0.

Maine: No Change.
Vermont: No Change.
New Hampshire: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NH-1 Toss Up.
Massachusetts: No Change.
Rhode Island: No Change.
Connecticut: House CT-4 Toss Up.

Labels: 2008 Final Projection, Regional Projections, US House Projection, US Senate Projection

Overall eight states, net senate change 0, net house change Democrat +4.

Minnesota: Senate Republican Hold, House MN-3 Toss UP, MN-6 Toss Up.
Wisconsin: House WI-8 Toss Up.
Michigan: House MI-7 Toss Up, MI-9 Toss Up.
Illinois: House IL-10 Toss Up, IL-11 Democrat Pick Up.
Indiana: House IN-3 Toss Up.
Ohio: House OH-1 Toss Up, OH-2 Republican Hold, OH-15 Democrat Pick Up, OH-16 Democrat Pick Up.
Pennsylvania: House PA-3 Toss Up, PA-10 Toss Up, PA-11 Republican Pick Up.
New York: House NY-13 Democrat Pick Up, NY-25 Democrat Pick Up, NY-26 Republican Hold, NY-29 Toss Up.

Labels: 2008 Final Projection, Regional Projections, US House Projection, US Senate Projection

Three Blue Dudes has averaged all of the prediction pages out there and they now have Obama winning the Presidency with about 320 electoral votes. Fifty more than the 270 needed.

Our projection as it stands today is that Obama will win with 353 electoral votes versus McCain's 185.

Labels: 3bluedudes.com, Electoral Vote Projection 2008

Overall seven states, net senate change 0, net house change Republican +1.

North Dakota: No Change.
South Dakota: No Change.
Nebraska: No Change.
Kansas: House KS-2 Republican Pickup.
Oklahoma: No Change.
Missouri: House MO-6 Republican Hold, MO-9 Republican Hold.
Iowa: No Change.

Labels: 2008 Final Projection, Regional Projections, US House Projection, US Senate Projection

Overall eight states, net senate change Democrat +2, net house change Democrat +1.

Arizona: House AZ-1 Democratic Pickup, AZ-3 Republican Hold.
Nevada: House NV-3 Toss UP.
Utah: No Change.
Idaho: No Change.
Montana: No Change.
Wyoming: No Change.
Colorado: Senate Democratic Pickup, House CO-4 Toss Up.
New Mexico: Senate Democratic Pickup, House NM-1 Toss Up, NM-2 Toss Up.

Labels: 2008 Final Projection, Regional Projections, US House Projection, US Senate Projection

Overall five states, net senate change Democrat +2, net house change Democrat +3.

Alaska: Senate: Democratic Pickup, House AL: Democratic Pickup
Hawaii: No change.
Washington: House WA-8: Toss up.
Oregon: Senate: Democratic Pickup.
California: House CA-4: Democratic Pickup.

Labels: 2008 Final Projection, Regional Projections, US House Projection, US Senate Projection

Three Blue Dudes has averaged all of the prediction pages out there and they now have Obama winning the Presidency with about 320 electoral votes. Fifty more than the 270 needed.

Our projection as it stands today is that Obama will win with 375 electoral votes versus McCain's 163.

Labels: Battleground States, Electoral Vote Projection 2008

Our current projection for the US House is D-249 R-186. That is a Democratic pickup of 13 seats.

Other sites with House Projections.

Isto Pensitaris D-244 R-191
Vote Projections 2008 D-244 R-191
Electoral-Vote.com D-243 R-192
Election Projection D-245 R-190
Open Left D-248 R-181 Toss Up 6
CQ Politics D-236 R-183 Toss Up-16
Campaign Diaries D-253 R-182 Toss Up-4
PollShark D-236 R-186 Toss Up-13
The Conservative Hawk D-244 R-191

And of course a huge hat tip to 3 Blue Dudes. Their election projection database rocks.

Look for updates to our State House and Senate pages in the next 48 hours.

Labels: Other House Projections, US House Projection

Here is a look at our Top Ten Battleground States:

Colorado: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Florida: Leans Republican.
Michigan: Leans Democrat.
Minnesota: Leans Democrat.
Nevada: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
New Hampshire: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
New Mexico: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Ohio: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
Pennsylvania: Leans Democrat.
Virginia: Toss Up Leaning Republican.

Our projection as it stands now: Obama 273 vs McCain 265. No Change From Last Update.

Battle Ground States Detail, all Intrade quotes are for Democratic futures. Numbers can be thought of as percentages. For example a quote of 65 equals a 65% probability of the Democratic nominee picking up that states electoral votes.

Colorado:




Pollster Colorado Home Page.

Florida:




Pollster Florida Home Page

Michigan:




Pollster Michigan Home Page.

Minnesota:




Pollster Minnesota Home Page.

Nevada:




Pollster Nevada Home Page.

New Hampshire:




Pollster New Hampshire Home Page.

New Mexico:




Pollster New Mexico Home Page.

Ohio:




Pollster Ohio Home Page.

Pennsylvania:




Pollster Pennsylvania Home Page.

Virginia:




Pollster Virginia Home Page.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

Labels: Battleground States, Electoral Vote Projection 2008