Chris F. Masse
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The Best Midas Oracle Posts
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The Robin Hanson-inspired, real-money, conditional prediction markets at InTrade are a world-wide disaster of thermonuclear proportion, concludes the long-time Robin Hanson fanboy who forked over real money to InTrade to have them set up and run. by Chris F. Masse
It’s Only A Game. by Chris F. Masse
Beware the propaganda sent out by the executives of the prediction exchanges by Chris F. Masse
Does it matter that the prediction markets got the total number of electoral votes for Barack Obama (almost) spot on? by Chris F. Masse
The SEC and the CFTC will soon disappear into their own ***. Here’s what could be next. by Chris F. Masse
Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts by Mike Linksvayer
My open challenge to InTrade CEO John Delaney by Chris F. Masse
What do the prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index and the prediction markets on climate change have in common? by Chris F. Masse
The 2008 US presidential election was “pretty close”, and Nate Silver’s state poll aggregation “pretty much nailed” it. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets — The Day After by Chris F. Masse
How to oversell InTrade’s predictive power by Chris F. Masse
Enterprise prediction markets help organizations mitigate risks. by Chris F. Masse
Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast. by Chris F. Masse
Zubin Jelveh explains how the market arbitrage opportunities between InTrade and BetFair evaporated just after Nate Silver’s post. by Chris F. Masse
The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count by Emile Servan-Schreiber
Futarchy Lite 2008 by Mike Linksvayer
Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather? by Chris F. Masse
Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise. by Chris F. Masse
What is the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
Are the polls accurate? — Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election by Chris F. Masse
Can InTrade’s prediction markets really “contribute to solutions in avoiding future [financial] crises”? by Chris F. Masse
The best research paper of the year 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Polls vs. Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Political prediction markets should “move beyond mere horse-race forecasts to demonstrate larger social value”. by Chris F. Masse
InTrade offers an explanation of strange trading. by Jason Ruspini
The gamble of downplaying manipulation by Jason Ruspini
Towards prediction market webpages (a la HubDub) that Google can index, that web visitors can land on directly (even after the event derivative contract expiry), that traders can comment on, and that bloggers can directly link to by Chris F. Masse
There is no manipulation going on in the InTrade political prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
InTrade CEO John Delaney states that prediction markets can prevent the next financial cataclysms. Surely. Prediction markets can also restore women’s virginity, and treat men’s baldness. by Chris F. Masse
Positives for prediction markets by Jason Ruspini
OneSeason.com by Chris F. Masse
Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX by Chris F. Masse
Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Long-Term Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Historical Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Is InTrade being manipulated? Why does InTrade give a discounted probability for Barack Obama as US president? by Chris F. Masse
Simulating joint dynamics of InTrade’s electoral prediction markets by Deep Throat
Nobel laureate Gary Becker and judge Richard Posner both wish that, one day, real-money prediction markets will be legal, without restrictions, in the United States of America. by Chris F. Masse
Do the top brass really tell everything to the trading employees? Do the EPM traders have access to all the primary indicators? by Chris F. Masse
Nigel Eccles (the CEO of HubDub) and Robin Hanson (the inventor of MSR) have some explaining to make about the extreme zigzagging of the Barack Obama event derivative (in blue on this static compound chart). Look at the right end of the chart. by Chris F. Masse
Is Intrade out on a limb? by Emile Servan-Schreiber
WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE. by Chris F. Masse
2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: The 2008 US elections thru the prism of the prediction markets — 2008 US presidential and congressional elections — US President Prediction + US Congress Prediction — Barack Obama vs. John McCain by Chris F. Masse
State Polls versus Electoral College Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College = US Electoral Map by Chris F. Masse
InTrade-TradeSports has a web server misconfiguration problem, and CEO John Delaney has a character problem. by Chris F. Masse
Zocalo in use at MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence by Chris Hibbert
The InTrade .NET charting system is a great improvement for prediction market journalism. by Chris F. Masse
How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate? by Chris F. Masse
Now that Joe Biden is the Democratic vice president nominee, what to think of Justin Wolfers’ August 1st column for the WSJ? by Chris F. Masse
The vetting of the many potential Democratic vice president nominees was not as secretive as I thought. — Bo Cowgill was right, in hindsight. by Chris F. Masse
Barack Obama + Joe Biden — THE PREDICTION MARKETS NAILED IT… triple alas (for my reputation as a world-wide prediction market pundit, and for the debate on the different quality of the various primary indicators out there). by Chris F. Masse
While InTrade CEO John Delaney is deceiving the journalists to sell his wares, Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Markets is telling them the truth: BEWARE THE VP-CANDIDATE PREDICTION MARKETS, THEY JUST AGGREGATE RUMORS. by Chris F. Masse
ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks. by Chris F. Masse
WeatherBill can be thought of a) as expressive insurance b) as a combinatorial prediction market with an automated market maker. by Chris F. Masse
Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market by Koleman Strumpf
FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated. by Chris F. Masse
Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete by Chris F. Masse
Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard. by Jason Ruspini
Horizon 2015: A long-term strategic perspective for the real-money prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
HubDub = Prediction Exchange + News Aggregator + Social Networking System by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
How does InTrade deal with insider trading? by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff. by Chris F. Masse
What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) by Chris F. Masse
Forrester recommend to add enterprise prediction markets in the company toolbox. by Chris F. Masse
“InTrade’s market data shows that the sliding Dow Jones Industrial Average has an exceptionally strong negative correlation (approx. -0.91 over the last 10 weeks) with the rise in the InTrade Market for Barack Obama to be the next US President.” by Chris F. Masse
In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS. by Chris F. Masse
2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College by Chris F. Masse
Chris Masse’s second comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets) by Chris F. Masse
Chris Masse’s first comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets) by Chris F. Masse
What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets) by Chris F. Masse
Are US-based real-money prediction exchanges to become federally regulated (as DCMs)? Or semi-regulated (as ECMs, or as exchanges covered by “no-action” letters)? by Chris F. Masse
What I mean by “advanced” and “retarded” by Chris F. Masse
My response to the CFTC on event contracts by Jason Ruspini
Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the non-regulating regulator by Caruso
Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war). by Chris F. Masse
Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go. by Tom W. Bell
The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets by Jay Graziani
VP conditional probabilities by Eric Zitzewitz
2 MILLION TRADES LATER: Inkling’s play-money prediction markets are accurate —too. by Chris F. Masse
COMMENTS TO THE CFTC: What to expect from Tom W. Bell and Jason Ruspini by Chris F. Masse
PREDICTION MARKETS: Robin Hanson & Justin Wolfers by Chris F. Masse
Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism. by Tom W. Bell
WEB EXCLUSIVE: How the US prediction market scene will look like after the CFTC ruling on “event markets” by Chris F. Masse
WORLD-WIDE WEB EXCLUSIVE: How the CFTC is going to rule on the legality of “event markets” by Chris F. Masse
How the CFTC try to define our prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts by Chris F. Masse
The American Enterprise Institute’s proposals to legalize real-money prediction markets in the United States of America by Chris F. Masse
Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) by Deep Throat
The best research papers on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
What public interests are served by event contracts? by Michael Giberson
Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition by Chris F. Masse
How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally by Chris F. Masse
The best presentations from the world’s best conference on enterprise prediction markets —ever by Chris F. Masse
POLLS VERSUS PREDICTION MARKETS: Justin Wolfers retorts to Bob Erikson. by Chris F. Masse
Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”. by Chris F. Masse
BetFair’s brand-new bet matching logic by Chris F. Masse
Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
The CFTC safe-harbor option for event markets by Jason Ruspini
CFTC regulation and election contracts by Jason Ruspini
WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets” by Chris F. Masse
Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)? by Chris F. Masse
Protecting Private Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
Building Exits into CFTC Regulation by Tom W. Bell
Robust, the prediction markets are the best mechanism for aggregating information. Thus, companies should use them for assessing strategy and hedging risks. by Chris F. Masse
ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
WET BLANKET OR BUBBLE BUSTER? — Charles Plott (a big-shot economist) condemns all the hype surrounding the prediction markets and the wisdom of crowds. by Chris F. Masse
Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15. by Chris F. Masse
Insider Trading and Private Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon. by Chris Hibbert
CFTC Requests Public Input on Possible Regulation of “Event Contracts” —a.k.a. event derivative markets, event futures markets, betting markets, bet markets, prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
2020’s PREDICTION MARKET JOURNALISM = Polls + Experts + Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market). by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets: Powerful enough to be dangerous? by Jason Ruspini
Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset. by Chris F. Masse
The Marketing Of The Reading Of The Public Prediction Markets = What Robin Hanson has deep trouble with, and what the prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) haven’t fully computed yet by Chris F. Masse
The Promise Of Enterprise Prediction Markets — The McKinsey conference should have been rooted in the economic science and McKinsey should have invited economists. by Chris F. Masse
Decision Markets and Futarchy are solutions in desperate search for a problem to solve and for their early adopters… and that may stay that way well after Robin Hanson’s head gets cryogenized. by Chris F. Masse
New Product Innovation: Enterprise Prediction Markets Can Help. by Chris F. Masse
How accurate are prediction markets in US elections? by Chris F. Masse
A picture worth 10,979 words? by Bo Cowgill
Re-read Mike’s testimony slowly, and then you’ll get which consumers’ need(s) prediction market journalism should fulfill. by Chris F. Masse
Info Value = the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value that accuracy can give in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. by Chris F. Masse
A highly accurate prediction market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic. by Chris F. Masse
Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? — Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google by Chris F. Masse
A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !?? by Chris F. Masse
BetFair’s new bet-matching logic + BetFair Malta’s trading on the multiples by Chris F. Masse
BetFair Malta’s combo market maker (trading algorithm + human market makers) operating on the multiples by Chris F. Masse
BetFair withdraws / improves its brand-new matching-bet logic, which was (kind of) endorsed by the Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board. by Chris F. Masse
Proponents say the creativity and anonymous nature of a prediction market attracts respondents that would normally shy away from or ignore a traditional survey. by Chris F. Masse
With the multiples, BetFair takes the role of a bookmaker. by Chris F. Masse
BetFair’s new bet-matching logic by Chris F. Masse
BetFair’s brand-new matching-bet logic is endorsed by the Chairman of the Midas Oracle Advisory Board. by Chris F. Masse
BetFair changes the logic of its bet matching. by Chris F. Masse
Developing a Business Case for Enterprise Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
What are enterprise prediction markets for? by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Market Journalism by Chris F. Masse
When Markets Beat The Polls - Scientific American Magazine by Chris F. Masse
Linear Programming - Combined Value Trading - Parimutuel Call Market - Combinatorial Call Markets by Chris F. Masse
The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming by David Pennock
Intrade, with carry by Jason Ruspini
Tax Futures - Jason Ruspini Edition by Chris F. Masse
Tax Futures, “In Real Life” by Jason Ruspini
BetFair Starting Price = Simplified Trading —just like MSR is, but without an AMM. by Chris F. Masse
Merger Markets on Microsoft-Yahoo by Robin Hanson
BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price by Chris F. Masse
Implied Probability of an Outcome –BetFair Edition by Chris F. Masse
NewsFutures do *NOT* favor event derivative management by traders. by Chris F. Masse
P(election) = P(nomination) * P(election conditional on nomination) by Chris F. Masse
Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy by Chris F. Masse
Assessing Probabilistic Predictions 101 by Chris F. Masse
Robin Hanson’s concept of… Info Value by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy by Chris F. Masse
Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets by Michael Giberson
Defining Probability in Prediction Markets by Panos Ipeirotis
Prediction Markets 101 by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets 101 — Chapter One: Interpreting The Probabilistic Predictions by Chris F. Masse
NewsFutures’ Emile Servan-Schreiber has two lines of defense for the prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
GIGO and prophets, tears and markets by George Tziralis
Five Reasons the Prediction Market Critics Are Wrong. by Steve Roman
Prediction markets = A tool for quantifying the conventional wisdom by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets are not worst, and more often, at least slightly better, than the other forecasting tools. by Chris F. Masse
The prediction markets reflect the polls and the national media. by Chris F. Masse
Micro-geography analysis of trading in Google’s enterprise prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
The future of futurism: crowds or entrepreneurs? by Michael Giberson
In a truly efficient prediction market, the price will come to reflect the influence of all available information. by Chris F. Masse
Amateur Experts (Yahoo! Answers) Vs. Wisdom Of Crowds & Collective Intelligence (Wikipedia) by Chris F. Masse
Amateur Journalists (Bloggers) Vs. Professional Journalists (Media) Vs. Wisdom Of Crowds & Collective Intelligence (Wikipedia) by Chris F. Masse
Text Mining and Prediction Markets by Bo Cowgill
The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming. by Chris F. Masse
InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones. by Chris F. Masse
Why does Tradefair care about Prediction Markets by David Jack
TradeFair Binaries User Guide - What is Trading? by Chris F. Masse
BetFair’s Global Warming Prediction Markets — CFM’s Views by Chris F. Masse
Slate publishes a BetFair explainer for the Americans. by Chris F. Masse
Separating cheap talk from truly held beliefs by Michael Giberson
Could a political campaign use prediction markets? by Adam Siegel
Polls over prediction markets? by Nigel Eccles
Small comforts of prediction markets by Mike Linksvayer
James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom Of Crowds… still stands. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets = Clear Expiry + Disperse Information + Participation Incentives by Chris F. Masse
How to sell art short by Jason Ruspini
If Musharraf goes, should we celebrate? by Eric Zitzewitz
A virtual tour of InTrade, the leading prediction exchange for North America by Chris F. Masse
Enterprise Prediction Markets according to Consensus Point and two of its Fortune-500 clients, General Electric and Best Buy. by Chris F. Masse
Explainer on Binary Betting with a Bookmaker by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets help cut through the clutter inherent in any large organization by revealing what people really think… by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets work by soliciting input across a diverse group of traders inside and/or outside the organization. by Chris F. Masse
Three Structures of Enterprise Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Overview of Henry Manne’s, “Insider Trading: Hayek, Virtual Markets, and the Dog that Did Not Bark” by Michael Giberson
Prediction markets or insider trading could reveal information hidden from upper management by Michael Giberson
LMSR trading vs. CDA trading by Chris F. Masse
Aren’t most firms using binaries for their internal prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
YooNew, fears and hopes by Jason Ruspini
Prediction Market Industry Association by Chris F. Masse
Beware before citing the probabilistic predictions given by the prediction markets by Steve Roman
Demand forecasting systems: Spending a lot on software doesn’t guarantee success. by Michael Giberson
John Delaney of inTrade-TradeSports: The North Korea Missile prediction market was a P.R. disaster. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets don’t solve the crystal-ball problem when it comes to the long-term future. by Chris F. Masse
Combinatorial markets for independent events: Flawed use of approach hampers price discovery by Michael Giberson
The InTrade-TradeSports explainer by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets and the flow of information inside organizations by Michael Giberson
Encouraging participation in long-term information markets by Jason Ruspini
Where is it that the prediction markets can make a macro difference, mister Robin Hanson? by Chris F. Masse
Enthusiasm and Arbitrage Opportunities at Media Predict by Michael Giberson
Pennock & Sami on “Computational aspects of prediction markets” by Chris Hibbert
Here’s how businesses should use prediction markets to see what their futures may hold. by Chris F. Masse
How does Koleman Strumpf define the prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
Here’s how Bet2Give explains what a prediction market is to its prospects. by Chris F. Masse
Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson by Michael Giberson
Risk that can be measured Vs. Uncertainty that cannot be measured by Chris F. Masse
Manipulators Increase Prediction Market Accuracy by Chris F. Masse
Market Scoring Rules, best mechanism design ever?? by Chris F. Masse
The Robin Hanson explainer on decision markets for governments by Chris F. Masse
The Robin Hanson explainer on his Market Scoring Rule by Chris F. Masse
The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Create your own prediction market at Inkling Markets in just 5 steps. by Chris F. Masse
Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets by Chris Hibbert
Prediction markets that try to forecast the QUALITY of upcoming products. by Chris F. Masse
The Meaning of Probability, Class Probability, Case Probability, Betting, and Gambling by Chris F. Masse
Jed Christiansen’s video explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Prediction markets is a meta forecasting tool. by Chris F. Masse
Cooperation between BetFair and the British Horseracing Authority: IT IS WORKING. by Chris F. Masse
Does betting exchange BetFair handle more daily trades than the New York Stock Exchange? by Chris F. Masse
Widespread Corruption in Sports Gambling: Fact or Fiction? by Rick Borghesi
Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports by Rick Borghesi
The NFL’s Home Underdog Bias: Timing and Weather by Rick Borghesi
Robin Hanson’s concept of decision markets applied to Midas Oracle management by Chris F. Masse
Decision markets that give the consequences of something by Chris F. Masse
The NewsFutures expiry judgment statements should not be elliptic. by Chris F. Masse
The Most Active Inkling Market Ever? by Michael Giberson
Were the InTrade prediction markets on the November 2006’s Senate elections accurate? by Chris F. Masse
Point Shaving in the NBA: An Economic Analysis of the NBA’s Point Spread Betting Market by Jonathan Gibbs
Copernican Principle: How To Predict the End of the World by Koleman Strumpf
HISTORY: Prediction Markets Timeline by Chris F. Masse
INTRADE-TRADESPORTS: John Delaney LIED in his Freakonomics interview. by Chris F. Masse
J.K. Rowling’s The Deathly Hallows = Harry Potter MUST Die! + Harry Potter Must NOT Die! by Chris F. Masse
What should be Done about Manipulation of Prediction Markets? by Michael Giberson
Overview of Robin Hanson’s Paper, “Insider Trading and Prediction Markets” by Michael Giberson
Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market? Accuracy Isn’t Everything. by Eric Zitzewitz
Deep-Pocketed Manipulators are a Prediction Market’s Friend. by Michael Giberson
EPS Prediction Markets = Earnings Per Share Prediction Markets — Google by Chris F. Masse
Structure and Behavior of Commodities Markets by Rod Carvalho
The Second Workshop on Prediction Markets by Yiling Chen
Paper on Corporate Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
The idea here is that prices aggregate information, the oldest idea in economics. by Chris F. Masse
Pop Sci PredictionS Exchange by Chris F. Masse
Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It. by Michael Giberson
An Employee Stock Option Prediction Market by Eric Zitzewitz
Robin Hanson to Justin Wolfers on making a bet with a fellow economist regarding a prediction market by Chris F. Masse
What is the biggest uncovered risk category, and how would you hedge it? by Chris F. Masse
Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) by Koleman Strumpf
Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux. by Justin Wolfers
Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? by Koleman Strumpf
Manipulation can affect prices. by Eric Zitzewitz
PODCAST: Robin Hanson on Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets for Businesses = a Strategic Forecasting Tool by Chris F. Masse
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications by Chris F. Masse
With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets for Businesses by Chris F. Masse
Intra-Debate and Post-Debate Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
ROBIN HANSON: Prediction markets are not about the wisdom of crowds… by Chris F. Masse
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications by Chris F. Masse
Policy Event Derivatives by Jason Ruspini
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today. by George Tziralis
The many ways to speculate on the BetFair prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Squawk on Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
Safe Harbor Letter too Timid by Chris Hibbert
Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities by Michael Giberson
Steve Levitt of Freakonomics: I WON’T SIGN YOUR PETITION, BOB. by Chris F. Masse
Economists’ Petition on Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Statement on Prediction Markets by Deep Throat
Are Consensus Point and Inkling Markets’ successes spectacular or unspectacular?? by Chris F. Masse
US Dollar = Event Derivative on the US President’s Popularity??? by Chris F. Masse
Can Prediction Markets Help Eliminate Poverty? by Michael Strong
United Kingdom: The Blair Switch Project by Chris F. Masse
How does the US political scene look like after the two debates? by Chris F. Masse
The Scottish National Party has broken Labour’s eight-year dominance of the Scottish Parliament. by Chris F. Masse
How to make LinkedIn work for you by Chris F. Masse
Hybrid Prediction Markets by George Tziralis
FIRMWARE AND PREDICTION MARKETS: INKLING IS RIGHT. by Bo Cowgill
Who needs prediction markets when you can average probabilistic predictions?? by Chris F. Masse
The Wisdom Of Crowds: James Surowiecki on the predictive accuracy of the horse race betting markets by Chris F. Masse
A top manager at the World Bank said the furor over Paul D. Wolfowitz was the biggest crisis in the bank’s history. by Chris F. Masse
Europe’s foremost betting industry analyst gets a beating from The Wisdom Of Crowds’ James Surowiecki and John De Palma. by Chris F. Masse
Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) is a bad US monopoly on political event derivatives / prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
Predictions can be precise but not accurate (and vice versa). by Chris F. Masse
Prawf Koleman Strumpf: How many divisions?? by Chris F. Masse
The Second “Remark” Of The Day: Focus On The Traders, First. by Chris F. Masse
Incite the free-market thinkers into *practicing* prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
How prediction exchanges can best encourage participation by Bo Cowgill
Tax futures and the libertarian paradox by Jason Ruspini
Longitude - The software used by CME Economic Derivatives by Chris F. Masse
Why don’t more businesses use internal prediction markets? Are prediction markets a fad? by Chris F. Masse
Robin Hanson on Competitive Forecasting by Chris F. Masse
U Turn: Robin Hanson is against competitive forecasting, now. by Chris F. Masse
Putting crowd wisdom to work by Bo Cowgill
Structuring the Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
Keith Jacks Gamble: simExchange is somewhat OK, but will remained confined in play-money land. by Chris F. Masse
The Giuliani manipulator buyer is back by Jason Ruspini
The Economic Derivatives Market by Justin Wolfers
Robin Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Seen Thru David Pennock’s Eyes That Focus On Todd Proebsting by Chris F. Masse
Conditional and Combinatorial Betting by Chris Hibbert
Google’s Bo Cowgill: Organizations experimenting with prediction markets don’t shy away from publicizing it. by Chris F. Masse
Challenging the conventional wisdom that commercial prediction exchanges need sports to make money by Chris F. Masse
Designing Markets for Monthly Sales by Joey Crampton
Prediction Market Accuracy — Jason Ruspini talks back to Barry Ritholtz. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Market Accuracy — Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers talk back to Barry Ritholtz. by Chris F. Masse
Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions — David Pennock Edition by Chris F. Masse
Hypothesis vs. Theory by Chris F. Masse
2005: TradeSports-InTrade’s Heyday by Chris F. Masse
New York Times on prediction markets — REDUX by Chris F. Masse
The methodology of prediction market event study — Multiple Causes Edition — REDUX by Chris F. Masse
The methodology of prediction market event study — Multiple Causes Edition by Chris F. Masse
Top 5 Plays of the Super Bowl? Market says No. by Keith Jacks Gamble
Anonymity is important for employees trading on internal prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
Super Bowl Analysis Highlights by Keith Jacks Gamble
How and When to Listen to the Crowd by Chris F. Masse
Non-obstacles to CFTC-regulated political event derivatives by Jason Ruspini
BetFair Case Study - Betting Exchange - Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
The Homebuilder Sell Sirens Call Again by Jason Ruspini
Aloha, Poker Players Alliance by Jason Ruspini
Email Interview: Ken Kittlitz by Ken Kittlitz
Case: MicroSoft’s internal prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
Trading Bets at BetFair - Betting Exchange Explainer - Backing vs. Laying by Chris F. Masse
BetFair Multiples by Chris F. Masse
Does wisdom require markets? by David Pennock
The LindeX Currency Exchange by Jason Ruspini
WeatherBill contracts are financial instruments, regulated by the CFTC. by Chris F. Masse
Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers by Chris Hibbert
Yootle interest rates and inflation by Jason Ruspini
Insight or Connection - How Kynikos Associates Profited from the Gaming Bill by Steve Roman
Thoughts on Weather Bill by Eric Zitzewitz
BetFair’s explainer on betting exchanges by Chris F. Masse
The Unlawful Internet Gambling and Enforcement Act of 2006 by Chris F. Masse
HP and corporate prediction markets mechanisms by Jason Ruspini
Prediction Markets “Excluded” from CFTC Jurisdiction? by Tom W. Bell
One idea is to run public markets on events that affect one’s stock market value. by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Market Event Studies by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets for the CFO by Eric Zitzewitz
Prediction exchanges should be commercial enterprises and make big profits. by Chris F. Masse
Tales from the Chart Side by Alex Kirtland
Flora of North America (CFTC regulation again) by Jason Ruspini
Credit Event Futures and other fauna by Jason Ruspini
Forget the polls and computers, let markets pick the top 2. by Eric Zitzewitz
Economic Derivatives Auction Trader Motivations by Jason Ruspini
Discounting and prediction market prices by Jason Ruspini
A 1990 Corporate Prediction Market by Chris F. Masse
Professor Robin Hanson’s draft definitions are validated by professor Eric Zitzewitz. by Chris F. Masse
Is HSX the “longest continuously operating prediction market”??? - REDUX by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets Definitions - REDUX by Chris F. Masse
Prediction Markets Definitions by Robin Hanson
Does Liquidity Affect Securities Market Efficiency? - Paul Tetlock’s new abstract by Chris F. Masse
Does Liquidity Affect Securities Market Efficiency? - by Professor Paul Tetlock by Chris F. Masse
Political Factor Analysis by Jason Ruspini
The Pascal’s Wager… as seen by TradeSports trader “Caveat Bettor”. - WARNING: THIS QUOTE WILL MAKE HISTORY. by Chris F. Masse
Robin Hanson would like to see prediction markets forecast the consequences of a candidate getting into office. - REDUX by Chris F. Masse
TradeSports Prediction Map Post Mortem - Professor Lance Fortnow on the record by Chris F. Masse
An Extended Literature Review on Prediction Markets by George Tziralis
Best Trading Interface? Here’s One Possibility. by Robert McLister
Is the hedging economic purpose test ambiguous? by Jason Ruspini
WSJ on the 2004 manipulation of the TradeSports’s Bush contracts. by Chris F. Masse
Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk by Chris F. Masse
Tom W. Bell’s (skill-based) scientific prediction exchange by Jason Ruspini
Gambling and a New Approach to Regulating Information Markets by Paul Tetlock
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