If you want more bad news, then don’t read this post. But if you are tired of reading about bailouts, bankruptcies, and poor earnings, keep reading.

I’m no Pollyanna. I have blogged previously about embracing the most brutal facts of your current reality. I know people are suffering, and I hate that.

Seth Godin is one of my very favorite business authors. His first book, Permission Marketing (1999), helped me understand the importance of crafting messages that are anticipated, personal, and relevant. It shaped the way I think about the Internet as a communications medium.

Since that time, Seth has written many bestselling books on marketing, including The Purple Cow, Word of Mouth Marketing, and, his newest, Tribes. Each time he has challenged the status quo and turned conventional thinking on its head.

The Evangelical Christian Publishers Association (ECPA) just announced that our Word of Promise audio bible won the “Book of the Year†award for 2008. Wayne Hastings, Senior Vice President and Group Publisher for our Bible & Reference Group, accepted the award at the Christian Book Awards, held in Orlando, Florida, at the International Christian Retail Show (ICRS).

The amazing thing is that it is the first time in the 30-year history of the award that it went to a non-book. Think about it. First, it’s an audio Bible, rather than a traditional print book. Second, it’s a Bible rather than a book. This is fascinating. What does it mean for the future of publishing?

The debate about the future of book publishing is largely focused on two questions: First, how will books be sold (bricks and mortar vs. the Internet)? And, second, how will the content be delivered (traditional bound books vs. digital)? Both of these issues are, of course, being driven by the new realities made possible via the Internet.

But I think something even more profound is happening. While the Internet is shaping how we read, it is also shaping how we think.

If we can’t stop the presses, we should at least slow them down. U.S. publishers produced almost 300,000 new titles last year, a number that Sara Nelson of Publishers Weekly referred to as “a ridiculous number.â€

With bookstore sales rising a modest 3.6% in the last five years, we have more and more books competing for what amounts to the same exact shelf space. Clearly, something is wrong.

Last Saturday, April 12, I spoke to Christian Retailers at our inaugural Open House event. It was video-taped, and you can watch it here if you are interested.

Because the file was so large, I had to upload it as five separate videos. The total length is 40 minutes or so. However, if you click on the link above, it will play all five videos as a YouTube “playlist,†with each video playing one after the other.

Today, we announced that we will no longer be participating in the two major trade shows in our industry: Book Expo America (BEA) or the International Christian Retail Show (ICRS). As I said in our press release, we have been discussing this move for some time. In fact, it’s a conversation we have had every year since I have been at Nelson (ten years).

But the current economic downturn is forcing us to re-evaluate every marketing dollar we spend. This is not the reason for our shift in strategy, but it is the catalyst. The reality is that these trade shows provide very little return to us on a hugely significant investment.

At the recommendation of my friend, Randy Elrod, I decided to start “twittering.†I have now been engaging in the practice for about a week.

What is twittering? Twitter’s home page says it best:

The Amazon Kindle has sparked (pun intended) a great deal of debate. It seems that people either love it or hate it. Me? I’m probably somewhere in the middle. Despite its obvious shortcomings, I think it’s a giant step forward, and I want to see it succeed.

But I think the device has a ways to go before it creates the kind of seismic shift that the iPod created in the music world. In order for an eBook to succeed, it must incorporate four essential components. I have listed these in priority order.

It seems that my post on Why Traditional Books Will Eventually Die has sparked a good deal of debate. So far, it has generated more than 40 comments and a number of email messages.

Christian Retailing even has an article coming in its January issue. It is entitled, “Nelson head predicts ‘death of traditional book’.†You can read it online here.

The Amazon Kindle is not the ultimate eBook reader, but it is a giant step in the right direction. After using one heavily over the last 24 hours, I have found much that I like, things I don’t like, and a clearer vision for what the next eBook device should include.

Interestingly, most of the people complaining about the Kindle have not even tried it. It is almost as if the mere existence of the device—and it’s possible impact on traditional books—affects them in some strange, primal way.

The book, as we know it today, will eventually die. It won’t happen all at once. And it won’t happen immediately. But, in my opinion, it is inevitable. Why? One word: efficiency.

The essence of technology is that it makes things more and more efficient. It automates processes—or completely eliminates them. As it does so, it takes costs out of the system. Once it is unleashed, it generally can’t be stopped.

According to a new Newsweek report, entitled The Future of Reading, Amazon will introduce a device this week that could usher in the long-awaited ebook revolution. It is called the Amazon Kindle, named to evoke the crackling ignition of knowledge.

According to Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos (pictured above),

For the past several months, booksellers have been complaining about slow retail traffic. Publishers have complained, too, of course. But not all retail stores are experiencing this problem. Some are thriving.

Last night, I got a taste of this. While on the road, I visited the Apple Store inside the South Coast Mall in Costa Mesa, California. It was about 7:30 p.m. When I entered the mall, it seemed very quiet—almost deserted. Until I got to the Apple Store.

I know, I know. I said I wasn’t going to buy an iPhone. But, in a moment of weakness, I did it. (Those of you who bet I wouldn’t last can now collect your winnings.) Three things put me over the edge.

First, last week Apple made several announcements. The company introduced new iMacs, as well as updates to iLife and iWork. I even watched Steve Job’s entire speech and demo session. As usual, he blew me away. It’s not just the fact that he is a great presenter (which he is), but that his products are so unbelievably cool. I love everything about them.

I spoke at Book Expo America last week in New York. In case you are not in the publishing business, this is our largest U.S. trade show. I spoke on the topic of “Customer Focused Publishing: How Thomas Nelson Moved Away from Imprints and Closer to Customer Wants.â€

(If you are a member of Publisher’s Lunch, you can click here to watch my presentation on video. I have also asked the BEA organizer to upload it on YouTube.com, but I have not received a response. Also, the video does not show my slides. If you want to see those, click here (12.7 MB) to download a PDF of my slides. I created them in Apple Keynote, but the PDF will enable you to view them on any platform. If you want to view the two video clips I showed, you can view them here and here.)

My assignment was to justify why we eliminated our twenty-one separate imprints and are now focusing on the Thomas Nelson brand. In the eyes of some, this action amounted to heresy, since imprints are such a staple of traditional publishing.

Our company has had an Intranet site for several years. We call it, “The House,†as a reference to our corporate logo. It has housed our company phone directory, employee handbook, various policies, etc.

The problem was that our Intranet was static—“read only.†If you wanted to make a change, you had to get someone in the IT department to do it.

If you are in the publishing industry or have been reading my blog, you probably know that effective April 1, we eliminated all twenty-one of our company’s “imprints.â€*

Over the course of this past year, we “rolled up†all of our publishing brands into the singular “Thomas Nelson†brand. (In other industries, this is sometimes referred to as a “brand consolidation.â€) We also reorganized by consumer categories.

Our fiscal year begins on April 1. To celebrate this past year and to kick off the new year, we had all our Nashville-based employees gather around the flagpole this morning. I shared a few thoughts that I thought I would repeat here, in case you weren’t able to attend.

A Look Back

Last year was tough. The economic environment was challenging, as was the retail sector. The publishing industry was at best flat. And, according to the Association of American Publishers (AAP), the religious segment was down 10.2% for the year. However, this appears to be turning around.

John Lochridge, one of my readers, pointed me to an interesting post about a new break-through technology. It’s called the Built-In Orderly Organized Knowledge device, otherwise known as the BOOK.

For the last five years, I have heard constant complaining about Christian retail. Publishers complain. The media complain. Even Christian retailers complain.

It is time for this to stop. Enough is enough. I believe we have talked ourselves into a slump. Therefore, I am declaring a moratorium at Thomas Nelson on negative comments about Christian retail. I don’t want to hear them. These comments aren’t helpful, and they sure aren’t empowering.

I want us to change our thinking. We can see the glass half empty or half full. I want us to see it half full. Things are never going to improve until we learn to give thanks for what we already have and start focusing on the positive.

To get us started, here are ten reasons why I am excited about Christian retail. I am deliberately choosing to focus on the positive.

Vision and strategy are both important. But there is a priority to them. Vision always comes first. Always. If you have a clear vision, you will eventually attract the right strategy. If you don’t have a clear vision, no strategy will save you.

I have seen this over and over again in my professional and personal life. Once I got clear on what I wanted, the how almost took care of itself. Let me give you an example.

In July of 2000, my boss suddenly resigned. I was already the Associate Publisher of the division, the second-in-command. With his departure, I was asked to take his job. I became the publisher of Nelson Books, one of the trade book divisions of Thomas Nelson.

Yesterday, we sent out a press release announcing “Open House,†an event we plan to host in Nashville for our top Christian retail accounts in the Spring of 2008. We will invite two employees from each selected store and pay their expenses to attend the weekend conference in Nashville. The Open House initiative will take the place of our attendance at the CBA Advance convention.

Publishers Weekly ran an article in PW Daily about this entitled, “Nelson Out of CBA Winter Show.†Of course, the emphasis was on the fact that we have decided not to participate in next year’s CBA Advance trade show. Open House is our alternative. I thought the article was accurate and balanced. However, as I suspected, it has created a bit of a stir.

One of my favorite marketing gurus, David Ogilvy, once wrote, “Great marketing only makes a bad product fail faster.†How true.

I have argued for years that, “It’s the product, Stupid.†The secret to success in any business is to deliver a great, compelling product. No amount of marketing savvy, salesmanship, or operational excellence can overcome a weak product. This is especially true when it comes to publishing.

The purpose of marketing is to get a book launched—to prime the pump. But if people don’t want to read it and—more importantly—if they won’t recommend it to their friends, you’re hosed. You can’t spend enough money or be creative enough to overcome a lack of word-of-mouth marketing (WOMM).

Last month, I attended the International Book Fair in Guadalajara, Mexico. I’m not quite sure what I was expecting, but it blew me away and gave me a renewed vision—and hope—for the publishing industry.

Here are a few of the details:

All exhibitors were allowed to sell. All the major retail chains in Mexico, including the primary Christian one and the primary Catholic one had large stores on the floor. Publishers were selling to consumers, too, directly out of their booths.

By the comments I have received to my last post, I think it might be helpful to clarify a few items.

First, despite my attention-grabbing title, I do not actually anticipate the death of traditional book publishing—at least not anytime soon. However, even a 5-10 percent reduction in sales would have a significant negative impact on the publishing industry as we know it today.

Remember, legally downloaded music sales are only 6% of the total music industry, yet the record companies are reeling. But, it’s only going to get worse for those who refuse to embrace the future. Consider the fact that total music sales (physical and downloaded) for the first half of 2005 were $13.2 billion. Legal downloads accounted for $790 million or nearly 6 percent of this total. However, download sales increased by 350% over the prior year. This is the really big news. Do you see where this trend is going?

Yes, traditional books will be available to bibliophiles for the foreseeable future. All I am arguing is that a shift will occur. A big enough slice of the book reading public will opt for digital delivery and that will have a significant, disruptive effect on the entire industry. Trust me, it won’t take much. This is not an industry awash in profits. A 5-10 percent reduction in sales would wreak havoc. It’s already happening with newspapers and magazines. On the other hand, publishing companies that anticipate this shift and prepare accordingly will prosper. But this must happen now, not after the shift occurs. By then, it will be too late.

Second, I don’t think it’s valid to argue that the current technology doesn’t replicate the user-interface of a traditional book. This is obvious—and irrelevant. Technology is changing exponentially. We are not that far away from displays that closely resemble paper and are more readable and easy on the eyes than paper. We can’t try to envision the future by merely extrapolating from the present. We have to think “outside the box.â€

In 2000 or so, Microsoft launched Reader, a simple software application designed to enable users to read books on their computers. Most of us in the book publishing world braced for what we thought would be a major shift in our industry. It didn’t happen.

In recent years, it has become fashionable to defend the traditional book. Many have argued that you would be hard-pressed to improve on the user-interface and ergonomics of a book. Jokingly, I have said, “You just can’t beat the battery life of the traditional book!â€

While most publishers will admit that reference content is better accessed on the computer, almost all believe that the traditional non-fiction book or novel will never be replaced with a digital equivalent. I say, “baloney.†It's coming. The sooner publishing executives get their collective heads out of the sand and face the future, the better prepared they will be to meet it.

I am convinced that we are only one device away from a digital publishing tsunami. Consider what happened when Apple launched the iPod in October of 2001. They provided an end-to-end solution that made downloading music easy, portable, and fun. Now, 30-plus million iPods later, iPods are everywhere.

Apple owns 84% of the legal download market. They have sold more than 600 million songs to-date. In fact, with over 10 million customers, Apple's iTunes music store now sells more music than Tower Records or Borders. Who could have envisioned this five years ago?