Is the House Price Crash website finally right?

Posted:Abigail Andrews - Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008 at 3:33 pm.

Ever heard of the website www.HousePriceCrash.co.uk? Well, its name speaks for itself and in the last few weeks HPC representatives have been all over the TV for obvious reasons. What's more, they have been looking pretty pleased that their website is FINALLY making sense, as it has NOT done since its birth nearly 5 years ago on 26th October 2003.

Why have I written this article? Well, its because I am astounded, dumbfounded, even flabbergasted, that this website and many of its forum members are still trying to make out that they are right and have been all along. My point being, anyone can predict a housing market "crash". Firstly, because, as I have pointed out in other articles, no one ever seems to define what a "crash" is, and secondly, it is utterly likely at some point property prices will go down, it does not take a genius to predict that, especially if the predictions take 5 years to even have a chance of coming true.

So in 2003 www.housepricecrash.co.uk was born and the most popular part of the site was the forum. Filled with property "experts" suggesting, sell, sell, sell, the property boom is over and only fools will buy property now. But, ask yourself what has happened to house prices since then. You probably realise that they have risen by at least a third! What's laughable is, statistics taken from the very site www.housepricecrash.co.uk (AKA, 'HPC'), prove that fact. If you don't believe me take a look here. The statistics show in Q3 of 2003, the average price of a house was £129,761. Take a look again, the correction only began in Q3 of 2007, when average house prices peaked at, £184,131 and began to fall the next quarter. It does not take a genius to calculate how long it has taken for the forum "experts" predictions to even appear to be coming true.

Furthermore, HPC has not been proved correct yet, since this is not the first time we have seen a slow down in the market. Look at what happened in Q2, Q3 and Q4 of 2005 - prices flat-lined and there were reports all over the news that the crash had finally begun. You only have to search the internet with words such as "house price crash" to find article, after article, predicting the crash will start 2003, 2004, and the favourite year for most analysts was 2005. They were all proved wrong as prices once again, bounced back.

There must be some very upset people who acted on the sites "statistics and views" in 2003 and 2004 only to see prices continue to rise for the next 5 years! Now don't get me wrong, I do agree this time prices will go through a significant correction, but I am glad I had confidence in the property market for the last 5 years, or I too might have been very unhappy that the market had not fallen as such people predicted it would.

My pet hate at the moment are all the TV programmes with smug presenters and journalists gloating that the market is headed for a massive fall, just as they predicted back in 2007! The fact is many also predicted it in 2006, 2005, 2004 and 2003 too, but they all fail to mention that little gem! Have you ever questioned why most of these presenters take such joy in reporting a possible massive "crash" in house prices. Well, of the 2 programmes I have watched recently, both presenters had a very big interest in a property crash. Why? Well, they have acted on their predictions and sold up. Yes, that's right, they NEED the market to fall otherwise they are LOOSING money. Talk about a host with a vested interest. These people are hardly going to present an unbiased view point are they! Next time you see one of these programs question if they are truly unbiased, you will usually find they have a vested personal interest in their report coming true.

I must apologise but I am now well and truly in rant mode.... please excuse my tone when I say, for the LOVE OF GOD will someone please define, "house price crash". As I point out in other articles and also mentioned briefly earlier, it is a phrase I have grown to resent. I mean, what is a "house price crash"? Such a vague, undefined statement, used uncontrollably to define a downward trend of any scale in the property market! Perhaps the opening statement of any program or website predicting a "house price crash", should be to define what they are actually talking about. The term at the moment seems to cover any correction to house prices from a 2% fall to 30% fall, now that's a pretty wide definition if you ask me. Quite obviously, those that predict a "house price crash" under those terms are never going to be wrong are they?!?

Anyway lets get back to the point of this article, the House Price Crash website. A website established in 2003 by a small group of individuals who were extremely interested in the house price crash subject ..... but later sold, YES SOLD, to Fubra Limited in April 2006. Some sceptics might say that the site was sold once its predictions had not actually come true, and with prices continuing to rise steeply, it was unlikely that the founders would see their predictions come true for some time. History now proves they were probably right to sell. Fubra Limited now market the site as the, "definitive independent source for house price information and discussion on the web." These words taken from their "about us" page. A slight change in direction, as this seems far from the sites first original purpose, if you read into the meaning of the URL www.HousePricecrash.co.uk!

So in the last few months it is looking like HPC is finally able to say they were right. But, is the site really run by geniuses with an aptitude for property market predictions? Well, I would say absolutely not. It has taken 4-5 years for them to be proved right, that the property market is, it seems finally falling. But historical house price trends have shown that this is a normal cycle, simply because what goes up usually comes down, but in the case of property, it always goes back up again, a fact that anyone would find hard to disprove.

Put it this way, if I had any sense, and maybe could spare the time and effort, right now I would be designing a website called www.HousePriceBoom.co.uk! I mean, even if prices do actually continue to fall in the next couple of years, eventually, they WILL begin to rise once more, and once again we will see further property boom years. Surely that's all www.housepricecrash.co.uk did? If you actually think about it, the credibility of the sites predictions was lost come 2005, in the crash that never was. Strangely enough, a year later, the founders saw their opportunity to get out and make hay while the sun shines by selling their site, as their predictions had not come true!

Finally, I am predicting that house prices will begin to rise again in 5 years time, but if they don't I will continue to predict property prices will rise until they finally do, at which point I will say I told you so. That would make me right, yes? Isn't that what www.housepricecrash.co.uk has done?

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