Scottish Labour officials believe they will narrowly win today's Glasgow East byelection but with a dramatically reduced majority after a fiercely-fought campaign by the Scottish National party.
Labour will put 400 activists into the constituency today to help their supporters get to polling stations. The party is desperate to avoid an embarrassing defeat by the SNP in a previously rock-solid seat, where it is defending a 13,507 majority.
Party sources admit their vote is "soft" and fear the summer holidays and anger over rising food and fuel costs could lead many supporters to stay at home, allowing the SNP to snatch a win. The SNP expects its core supporters will turn out in large numbers, but it needs a 22% swing.
The SNP leader, Alex Salmond, claimed last night that voters wanted to use today's poll to protest against Gordon Brown's government and the rising cost of living. He said the two parties were "neck and neck", adding: "The ground is shaking and shuddering. I think the earthquake is coming and it will arrive on time."
But Labour sources say the mood among its activists was "upbeat", in sharp contrast to the gloom within the campaign team in the days leading up to the trouncing by the Tories in Crewe in May, which saw a 17% swing to the Conservatives.
After two weeks of intense campaigning and 11 visits to Glasgow East, Salmond appeared to be markedly downbeat yesterday. Clear signs of Labour's increased confidence came in a switch of tactics against the SNP's candidate, John Mason, and a hardening of anti-SNP rhetoric.
In its first use of negative campaigning, Labour circulated a leaflet ridiculing the local councillor as a Salmond "message boy" while portraying its candidate, Margaret Curran, as a champion for local constituents.
Labour ministers and party strategists believe Salmond's claim earlier this week that today's poll was a "test of strength" between him and Brown will go down badly in Glasgow East, where voters take a keen interest in local issues.
While Curran has frequent campaigned on her own, Mason's campaign has repeatedly been overshadowed by Salmond and the SNP deputy leader, Nicola Sturgeon.
Curran, a MSP and a former Holyrood minister, attempted to play up that contrast. She also implied she would rebel against the government to defend the needs of her constituents.
"A lot of people in the east end get frustrated that Alex Salmond just wants to talk about himself all the time ... I want to talk about the east end of Glasgow and if I get elected, that is what I will do," she said.
