ASPEN, Colo. — Aviation consultant Michael Boyd projected Monday that U.S. airline capacity on domestic routes could continue declining in 2009, and a falloff in demand could push airlines to cut capacity even more. He is projecting that 2009 capacity will fall 9.5 percent, following an 8 percent reduction in 2008 compared with 2007. The short-term question, Mr. Boyd said at his annual Boyd Group aviation conference, is whether customer demand falls faster than capacity. That would not be the scenario that airlines were hoping for as they park airplanes and lay off employees this fall, he noted. Mr. Boyd, who has witnessed many up-and-down cycles in the airline business in his long career, told the conference that the changes hitting the airline industry are not like the ones seen in the past. "This is not an aviation cycle," Mr. Boyd said. "What this is, is a whole new environment. We have grown up on oil prices being relatively low. They're going to be high. That means how you do business, where you do business is going to be different."
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