House and Senate Roundup, 7/25
by brownsox
Fri Jul 25, 2008 at 06:30:24 PM PDT
CO-Sen: Several polls out over the past few days. Rasmussen showed the race at 47% for Udall, 44% for Republican Bob Schaffer yesterday.
Previously, four polls in a row had showed a 9-10 point lead for Udall.
Now, two new polls are out with contrasting results. From Frederick:
Udall (D) 48
Schaffer (R) 39
And from Quinnipiac:
Udall (D) 44 (48)
Schaffer (R) 44 (38)
Could be statistical noise, or it could be the race closing a little. Conventional wisdom (and most other wisdom) rates the race "Leans Democratic, and that seems accurate. But this race is not money in the bank, and never has been.
ME-Sen: Here is a Maine poll, showing Republican incumbent Susan Collins with a substantial lead over Democrat Tom Allen. From Critical Insights:
Collins (R) 51
Allen (D) 37
Swing State Project notes that when the sample is limited to likely voters, there is only a 10-point margin for Collins, 50% to 40%.
This race has leaned towards Collins from the get-go, and Allen has been slowly closing the margin throughout the campaign. It's certainly not unreasonable to think he can catch her by election day, but this is still Collins' race to lose.
AK-Sen: Ted Stevens doesn't like us. And he doesn't like ActBlue. Here's a recent Stevens fundraising email attacking Democrat Mark Begich:
Instead of tending to his job in Anchorage, Begich was recently in Austin, Texas, at a "Netroots Nation" convention where he spent two days trying to garner support from bloggers with extreme left agendas. Just last quarter, the mayor raised more than $37,000 from just one liberal Lower 48 Internet campaign known as ActBlue (the 1,500 out-of-state donors he gained through this site amounted to a third of the "grassroots" support he received last quarter).
Fortunately the Begich campaign has a stinging response:
You wrote in your fundraising email:
"Just last quarter, the mayor raised more than $37,000 from just one liberal Lower 48 Internet campaign known as ActBlue"
ActBlue.com is a website, not a "Lower 48 Internet campaign". I hate to break it to you, but Alaskans use ActBlue, too. We're proud of our Alaskan donors who used ActBlue to support Mark's campaign.
What sort of website is ActBlue? Well, it is a website that allows Americans to make donations to candidates they support. That's it. It processes credit cards. So when you imply that we raised money "from" ActBlue, it's kind of like attacking us for raising money "from" PayPal or American Express or personal checks.
And it sure would be silly for you to criticize us for taking money "from" American Express (I'll spill the beans -- some of our donors gave with their AmEx cards).
The campaign also notes that Begich received far more donations in Q2 from Alaskans alone than Stevens received in toto. But why bother with facts if you're a Republican?
NH-Sen: UNH's polling showed this race tightening, with Democrat Jeanne Shaheen up only four points on Republican incumbent John Sununu.
Now, Rasmussen has a similar result:
Shaheen (D) 50
Sununu (R) 45
Sununu had been compared to this cycle's Rick Santorum, as he had consistently failed to close what had been solid double-digit polling leads for Shaheen. Now, it seems as though the race may well be tightening, at last. Shaheen still has an edge, but these polling results seem more in line with what one might have expected from this race.
OK-Sen: Orange to Blue candidate Andrew Rice diaried at Daily Kos today. Rice is trying to raise money to keep his latest ad on the air, so feel free to head over to the Orange to Blue page and help him out.
House Races:
MI-09: Democrat Gary Peters' campaign brought in an impressive $570,000 last quarter, and now sits on $1.1 million cash on hand.
It should be a tough fight against Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg, who brought in even more - $713K, and now has $1.8 million. Still, it's good to know that Peters will have the financial resources to take this race.
OH-02: Not a good sign for Republican party unity in this district; even they don't like Jean Schmidt. From her former primary opponent, Tom Brinkman:
Schmidt is now enmeshed in a bitter feud with another Ohio Republican, who's so furious with her that he called her a "lying b----" and a "despicable person" who would "sell her mother" -- and expressly told us we could print that!
The issue? GOP State Rep. Tom Brinkman, who founded an anti-tax government watchdog group, is charging that Schmidt's House staffers frequently work on her campaign for re-election.
"You can quote me anywhere you like. Jean Schmidt is a lying b----," said Brinkman, who lost his primary challenge to her this year by a 58%-40% margin, in an interview with Election Central. "She would sell her mother to promote herself. She is a despicable person. She will go any length possible to win, to get what she wants."
Oh, dear. That kind of rancor cannot be good for Republicans in the district.
IA-04: Republicans are scared all over. From a press release from Democrat Becky Greenwald's campaign, it appears that Karl Rove himself is coming to Iowa to fundraise for Republican incumbent Tom Latham.
"When Tom Latham is in the district, he blames partisan bickering for the problems in Washington. But the next thing we know, he brings Mr. Republican Party himself, Karl Rove, in for a fundraiser," said Greenwald Communications Director Erin Seidler. "Plus, Latham has voted with the Republican Party 92% of the time. It will be hard for Latham to run from his loyalties to the Bush administration and Republican Party."
Latham is hardly on the top lists of vulnerable Republican incumbents, although his district is quite winnable (D+0.4). The fact that Rove is actually going out to fundraise for Latham seems to indicate that Latham is some part of a Republican firewall. One which it would be delicious to break.
On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue page
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