An Inconvenient Truth: Bonderman and the First Inning

In 151 first innings in his career, Mr. Bonderman has given up 200 hits, 47 doubles, 27 home runs and 66 walks with an ERA of 7.09. Hitters facing him in the first have an All Star-caliber .316 batting average. In the second inning, their average drops to .216.

He made Mr. Bonderman pitch a simulated first inning in the bullpen, then sit down, hoping that his first inning on the mound would feel like his second. No luck there, either. Given the young pitcher’s talent and value, Mr. Cluck hesitated to go further.

This is all quite interesting, but of course the best explanation for Bonderman’s first-inning woes is not psychology or pitch selection or umpires; the best explanation is something we like to call “statistical fluctuation” or “random variation.”

As a rookie in 2003, Bonderman was equally bad in the first and second innings — as measured by OPS allowed — and even worse in the third inning.

In 2004, Bonderman’s worst innings were the third and the fourth.

In 2005, Bonderman was absolutely horrible in the first inning, much worse than in any other inning.

In 2006, Bonderman wasn’t particularly good in the first inning, but he wasn’t particularly bad, either. And we would expect pitchers to struggle a bit in the first inning, because of course they’re facing a lineup that’s designed to perform well in the first inning.

In 2007, Bonderman was even worse in the first inning than he’d been in 2005.