Chris Busch

I’m still waiting to hear if we are officially in a recession.  In a strange way, I hope so.  For one thing, it would be a shame for so many to endure the financial malaise of the last year or so without some official label to validate the experience.

But, one of the truths about recessions is that many opportunities are born in the midst of economic darkness. 

I’ve found over the years that it usually pays to be optimistic, especially when things appear really crappy.  In the early 80’s there was much doom and gloom being purveyed by gold bugs like Howard Ruff.  He was right about some things, but the economy boomed and gold tanked. 

Many conservatives were sure that the election of Bill Clinton would spawn an economic Armageddon, but the economy surged forward.

Then there was the rapid rupturing of the dot-com bubble in 2001-02, followed by yet another recovery, even if more tepid than the 90’s.

My point is this – it seems that every time the economic forecasts range from dour to dismal, smart leaders are preparing for the next boom.  Preparation may entail some pruning, but while you are wielding the shears be sure to keep your senses probing for an obscure opportunity.

Tomorrow’s success stories are often conceived in the thick of difficult days.

It's 12:49 AM Eastern Time and I just finished watching Game 5 of the Stanley Cup between the visiting Pittsburgh Penguins and the Detroit Red Wings.  Even though Detroit dominated most phases of the game, the Pens won 4-3 on a power play goal in triple overtime.  HD television makes it easier to watch the game and track the puck movement.  It was a great game.  Back to Mellon Arena for game 6.

Do you remember the story of Peter Pan?

The little fairy Tinkerbell drinks the poison intended for Peter and her light begins to dim and fade as certain death approaches.  But, why is she dying?  It’s not because she drank poison, oh no, it’s because not enough of us believed in fairies.

Peter implores the audience to show their belief in fairies by clapping and as the live audience is worked into a frenzy, Tinkerbell is miraculously revived and averts certain death.  We just needed to believe in fairies hard enough.

I’ve seen a lot of people in business over the years trying to save Tinkerbell.  I’ve done it myself.  Made a dumb decision, or two… OK, or three, and then believed that in spite of my own bad judgment I could somehow revive Tinkerbell if I just believed hard enough.

I consider myself a person of faith, but there are times if you drink the poison you die.  You can’t always believe yourself out of bad decisions.  Sometimes you just have to drink the antidote, which is usually a good dose of humility followed with a generous serving of taking responsibility for your choices.  And as you slowly climb out of the hole you dug for yourself, you begin to see that all the wildly clapping audiences in the world cannot really save Tinkerbell.  Peter Pan lied to us.

But we believed it because it was more comfortable than admitting we were wrong.  Then there was Jiminy Cricket who sang about wishing upon a star and your dreams would come true.  It seems that a lot of his disciples are regulars down at the Creek Nation Casino.

And who could forget Old Yeller.  A noble and faithful dog, he casts himself into mortal danger to shield his young master.  But, the bites lead to rabies and the young boy does the humane thing for his canine friend, he puts him down with a rifle shot to the head.  Man I cried when Old Yeller died.  I just knew he wasn’t really dead.  Maybe if we just clapped wildly and believed in dogs hard enough.  It just wasn’t fair.

Decisions have consequences.  Faith will help us through the process of facing those consequences, but the way of escape is through the consequences, not around them.  Life isn’t going to give you or me a pass.  We’re not that special.

As a teenage lad I was grumbling one day to my dad about how hard life was.  A man of few words, he never looked up from the big wheel bearing he was packing with heavy grease, but just said, “It’s supposed to be hard.â€

Hmmm. Come to think of it, I don’t remember Dad clapping for Tinkerbell.

One of the haunting memories of the 2004 tsunami was the phenomenon that immediately preceded it.  The oceans receded and scores of curious individuals wandered out into the waterless shoreline to inspect this peculiar development.  Had these folks had any experience with a tsunami, they would have been running the opposite direction rather than sauntering about with the crabs and other exposed marine crustaceans. 

The economy is in a down cycle.  Profits, revenues, investment, credit - these all appear to be receding.  This scares a lot of people who still seem to expect that the economy should move in only one direction - up.  But this cycle will be followed by another wave, and in the same way Google was born in the depths of the dot com bust, this is a time of great opportunity.

I was reminded of this again in a recent post by Seth Godin.

It's a good season for entrepreneurs.  Be on top of this next wave, not under it.

Over the past 10-15 years there has been a significant shift in business from the emphasis on management to developing leadership skills.  To be sure, there is a considerable overlap between the two.  Here are some thoughts on what tomorrow’s organizational leaders will face:
•    The emerging generation does not want to be “managed†and they’re not as impressed with the authority that in the past has been attached to a position. More than ever, authority must be earned along with respect.  My parents’ generation obeyed authority without much question, after all those people in authority were the experts.  My birth cohorts questioned authority more, realizing that somehow a lot of jerks made it into power positions.  Now we have a generation arising which has been fertilized with the importance of self esteem and they are less likely to ascribe honor to people whose behavior does not warrant honor.
•    “Fake it 'til you make it,†has given way to “Get real you _____.† You have to be authentic these days to lead well.  People will generally forgive your faults if you expose and acknowledge them, provided that you are not doing so as a part of some manipulative game you are playing.
•    Fear is in decline as the motivator of choice.  These people have not grown up with the oppression of the Great Depression, a World War, or imminent nuclear annihilation.  They’re not free from fear, but you’d be wise to not use fear as a leadership or management tool.
•    The world is now being shaped increasingly by people in their 30’s and 40’s.  Get used to it and join in.  It’s fun.
•    Leading is not about you and your insecure ego.  It’s about you helping others find and achieve their dreams and goals.  Insecurity may be the strongest repellent on the planet these days.
•    Servant leadership will be discussed and promoted more and more.  Some will actually practice its tenets.
•    The greatest obstacle to women moving up the ladder today is other women.  I marvel at the lack of mentoring and the absence of any desire middle aged women generally have toward helping younger females in the work place.

There’s more, but this is a blog, not a textbook.

Happy Leap Day!

Michele Miller has a great article over at Future Now discussing Barack Obama's communication style and why he seems to be hitting such a chord with voters when Hillary was expected to run away with the nomination.  Here's a freshman senator in the thick of the race for President.  No, this is not a political endorsement for Obama, but we can all learn some things from him.

His campaign theme, "Yes We Can!"  Simple. Positive. Inclusive.  He's making his campaign about you rather than about himself.  It has a collective rather than individualistic theme.  He and/or his advisers have an awareness of the emerging culture.

Look at Barack's website.  Then look at McCain's.  And Hillary's.  See the difference?

Read Michele's article.  Then consider your own marketing.  Is it all about you?  The Clinton mystique and communication style worked in the 90's.  But this is a watershed year for cultural change.  What used to work is no longer working.  Have you been noticing this at all? 

Study what's working.

And change.

I've written before about the shift in our culture being caused by the 40-year cycle of generations.  Remember, a generation is a period of time, not a group of birth cohorts.  2003 was the tipping point from an idealistic generation to a civic generation.  In the sixth year of the transition we can expect to see stunning evidence of the massive cultural shift similar in many ways to 1968.

As a result of this shift in the way people view the world, things that used to work don't work any more.  Bill Clinton was perhaps the best campaigner of the previous generational cycle.  Now, those same techniques are not working any more and even Ted Kennedy is jumping to the Obama camp.  Obama is being seen as fresh and new, someone who gets it, and most importantly as someone who is not stuck in the "old ways."  In spite of her huge war chest and her enormous political experience, Hillary is being viewed as old guard, and with Super Tuesday looming she doesn't have much time to rebrand.  What worked for Bill won't work for Hillary.  It's a different day in more ways than most of us imagine.

At this point, I think the Republicans have little chance this year unless they nominate someone who won't be seen as stale dated.  In that regard it seems like Mitt Romney would be the best choice.  But choosing the candidate most likely to win the general election is not what the nomination process is about.

I'm not endorsing anyone, but it seems to me that Obama is in the best position to ride the wave of cultural change into the White House.  A question for you and your organization - "How can you catch this wave and be on top of it rather than under it?"

I love basketball.  I've played.  I've coached.  Most of all I've learned valuable lessons about life.          

1. Teamwork is a beautiful thing.  Skilled people who care about each other and who are dedicated to a common goal can accomplish incredible things.          

2. Peripheral vision is critical.  You have to see the whole floor in front of you with a good perspective on what's behind you.

3. The defense is always giving up something.  Find it and attack it.          

4. Game strategies and preparation are important. Adapting to the unexpected is critical.          

5. Michael Jordan's greatest and least recognized talent was his ability to make everyone else on his team better.

The U.K. is to become the first major advertising economy to see online spending surpass traditional TV ads, according to forecasts by media buying agency Group M.

The report also states that online is set to overtake TV in Sweden within the next 12 months.

The U.K. has a higher percentage of public rather than ad-supported television which makes it different from the USA market.  So it will be some time before the Internet passes television here.  But with the growth of video ads online and mobile, the wave continues to swell.

Short but good article by Wizard Academy founder Roy Williams on The New Branding.

Roy was the first person to help me begin to understand the massive cultural shift we are experiencing today and why it was so predictable, at least in its macro elements.

As we start a new year it's good to remember this quote from a 2006 post -  General Eric Shinseki, former US Army Chief of Staff -

"If you don't like change, you're going to like irrelevance even less."

The London Times reports that Google is augmenting AdWords, its search engine advertising program, with Google Print Ads which will allow Google clients to bid for ad space in participating newpapers with GOOG receiving a slice of the revenue for each deal struck.  Google already has a similar program for radio advertising, and you can expect that eventually the Google-pus will have it’s tentacles into most forms of online and offline advertising (note its recent $3.1 billion merger with Double Click).

We could be close to the day when many businesses will be able to manage their media placement (online and off) through the Google-opoly.  This will be good for businesses (and also for Google) who will be able to buy much of their media through a centralized platform that is bid-based, making the already irrelevant rate card move several steps closer to extinction.

There’s still a big place for offline advertising, and Google is smart to make a play into that space to render additional value to its growing army of clients. 

I'm not too excited about the prospect of in-flight cell phone usage coming to America.  About 1 in 17.3 people think that cell phones have adapted can-and-string technology which requires that they raise their voices to banshee levels in order to be heard not only by the other party, but also to prove to everyone in earshot how important they are.

It's bad enough that the widest people in the gate lounge will always end up in a middle seat, but now their unmitigated sprawl will be supplemented by the opportunity to bellow on their I-don't-have-a-clue-about-all-these-features Blackberry totem from gate to gate.

Please, let's not give the flying public any more opportunities to wax inconsiderate.  Most of us can't wait until the cabin door closes so that the "Turn off all electronic devices..." announcement mutes (reluctantly) the boorish quasi-elite as they bluster in condescending tones to the workers back at the office.

So please nix in-flight cell phone usage.  Let's also outlaw use of cell phones in the airport bathroom stalls.  There's just something about it that's not right.

Yesterday I had breakfast with my brother, his wife, and one of our former business professors who is still a great friend.  The service and the food were pretty good, with me relishing a bowl of oatmeal and dry wheat toast as penance for my holiday splurge.  After the plates were picked up and the check was delivered and paid, there were no further offers for coffee refills even though we sat there and talked for another hour midst a sparse crowd in the restaurant.

I assume once our waitress delivered the check she considered her work at our table to be done.  Then there is this skill they teach in food service school of being able to avoid eye contact with customers.  She was flawless but I'm sure also clueless.

Roy Williams at Wizard Academy talks a lot about the importance of first and last mental images when developing advertising copy.  The same applies to someone's experience with your business.  Yesterday my first image was good.  Place was clean, service was quick.  But that last mental image of a cold and lonely coffee cup yearning for one more fill...

Be sure to stay engaged with your customers until they are ready to leave, whether it's your store, your cell phone, or your website.  Don't squander a good first impression with a fumble on the one-yard line.

A heartwarming story for the season.

How Starbucks Saved My Life - the story of Michael Gates Gill.

David Wolfe usually has an interesting take on his Ageless Marketing Blog. 

In this post he talks about a lasting real estate recession being fueled by declining population growth.

You may want to read Parts I and II of the series as well.

From the Wall Street Journal via BuzzMachine (Jeff Jarvis) -

"Now, for the first time, pure-play Web companies have the biggest share of the local online-ad market. In 2007, Internet companies had a 43.7% share of the $8.5 billion local online-ad market, while newspaper companies had a 33.4% share, according to the media research firm Borrell Associates. Just three years ago, newspapers had 44.1% of the local online-ad market. (Directories such as the Yellow Pages have 10.1%, and local television outlets 9.3%.)"

Jarvis goes on to note - "Newspapers are losing their own core market because they didn’t understand the scale of the internet. They still thought mass when they should have realized that small is the new big. That is, online, newspapers still threw their lot in with the big advertisers who had been the only ones who could afford their mass products. They didn’t see the mass of potential spending in a new population of small, local advertisers who never could afford to advertise in newspapers but who now could afford to buy targeted, efficient, inexpensive ads online."

"The internet is an entirely new economy. It’s not built on big. It’s built on a mass of smalls. And newspapers think big. That’s their real challenge."

Read the entire post here.

Have you noticed that things are really changing out there?

My friend Holly Buchanan has announced her awards for Marketing to Women in 2007.

Read about it here.

As the whole media landscape changes with mass media losing its mass to scores of micro-channels, it's important that marketers not get overly focused on the media placement issues of communication.  Getting the right message, telling the right story, understanding your audience (gender, personality type, etc.), and creatively packaging that right message - these are still the priorities for marketers.  Dealing with the massive shift in media is but another added opportunity for stress and growth.

From Marketing Pilgrim -

"There’s a new study by the Kelsey Group talking about online auto advertising. Budgets are rising from 5% this year to 13% in 2011. Money spent for TV advertising is slowing down. Like newspapers, the auto industry is suffering and looking for ways to revive sales, and channeling more into the Internet and less into traditional advertising. â€

Kelsey Group estimates automakers’ 2008 U.S. ad spending will be flat or down slightly. CEO Neal Polachek said carmakers will shift more dollars online and to out-of-home, with declines in TV, magazines, newspapers and direct mail.

Read the entire article here.

I was fishing with a good friend a few years ago.  We were pummeling the east bank of a small inlet at Skiatook Lake near evening on a beautiful fall day, but catching nada.  We heard some noise and looked across the water to the west to see a rather large school of fish thrashing the surface in a feeding frenzy.  For some reason we smiled and continued our mindless ritual of casting into the still waters on our side of the inlet.  Then after a few more minutes of being disturbed by all of the feeding fifty yards astern, our eyes met and we both had the same revelatory thought - "Let's go over where the fish are feeding."  And sure enough, our luck changed. 

I mean, it's all luck you know.

Forecast: Spending will triple in 2008, to $1.3B

From Media Life Magazine - "Local online advertising will once again be hot in 2008; that hasn’t changed. What is changing, however, is how this advertising is delivered, compared to past years when banners and pop-ups dominated, and who is selling it. "

Some other points from the article:

If you own a local business or lead another local organization you need to be tuned in to the huge impact the Internet is having on the local advertising market.  Perhaps nowhere is the cultural shift creating a bigger impact than in advertising and media.

A good time to get started on a local Internet-based campaign would be now.

But first get a plan.  (See previous post)