[Yeah, so, this was supposed to be out a little earlier in the off-day (the, y'know, day part of it) but things came up and now it can be the... Off-Midnight Report? Anyway.]

I know nobody wants to relive the horror that was this weekend's series at Wrigley. Heck, all of May has been tough right now. We ended April with a win against Houston (taking 2 of 3) but things went awry as soon as May started. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 so far for the month, and are now 3-4 against the NL East and 3-6 against the NL Central.

I promise, we're not reliving the weekend! Because guess what, we are 17-5 against the NL West, and that is by far the best intra-divisional record in all of MLB (the Tampa Bay Rays are 15-11 vs the AL East, and Florida and New York have good records in the NL East). So how happy are we to be facing Colorado at home right about now? Pretty happy. For one, we are 5-1 against Colorado this season with a run differential of +20! And the one loss was by a score of 13-5 on what as a pretty bad day for entire pitching staff. The Rockies are only a slightly higher 4-6 so far for the month of May and they come in having just lost two in a row to San Diego, scoring only 3 runs in those two loses. 

The series looks to be shaping up like follows. Sorry if this is a bit stat-heavy. ;)

Tuesday: Jeff Francis (0-3, 5.27 ERA) vs Randy Johnson (2-1, 5.06 ERA)

Francis is winless in his first seven starts, and only three of those starts have been "quality starts". (We'll let Gracie and Sutton squabble over the value of this...) His one terrible start was his second, lasting only 5 innings against Arizona and giving up 7 earned runs. A repeat of that would be nice, right? All starts have seen him throw 98 pitches or more, so the Diamondbacks need to be patient to get him out of there quickly. Francis has also been the victim of poor offense, with his team scoring less than 3 runs per game in his starts. Randy Johnson, meanwhile, has been the beneficiary of good offense, with more than 5.5 runs of support. Unfortunately, he hasn't lasted very long in his starts and his ERA has been climbing since his first win in San Diego a few weeks ago. We know what the deal with Randy is - when he's on, he's awesome, but the Diamondbacks need to keep up (revive?) the good run support. (Oh if it were only that simple.) This game is such a toss up... but, based on history and the teams, I'd have to say Advantage: Johnson.

Wednesday: Jorge De La Rosa (1-1, 10.24 ERA) vs Micah Owings (4-1, 4.33 ERA)

It's really not fair to judge De La Rosa on his two starts so far this season. The first was horrid, 9 ER in 4 IP, and his second one was pretty good, only 2 ER in 5.2 IP (that outing nearly halved his ERA). He did not face Arizona as a full-time starter last season with Kansas City (maybe he can give a scouting report on the upcoming Tigers?) but in three relief appearances and one start in his career, he has given up 6 runs to the Diamondbacks (1 earned) in just fewer than 10 innings. That looks favorable! I can't find anything else interesting about him (what, you mean that wasn't interesting?), but the MLB.com series projection notes say he looked good last week against St. Louis. Micah Owings won his first four starts of the year, including his first of the year in Colorado (6.2 IP, 1 ER) and looked to be a real solid #4 ace (possibly even #3) early on. Since the ankle injury (and including that game), he has a loss (6 ER) and two no-decisions (5 ER, 3 ER). But we all know he was solid last week against Philly and deserved the win for that quality start. Let's hope he continues the trend onwards and upwards (and downwards for that ERA). Advantage: Owings.

Thursday: Aaron Cook (6-1, 2.26 ERA) vs Brandon Webb (8-0, 2.41 ERA)

Since this is the ace vs ace matchup of the week, let's do a little side-by-side comparison. Believe me, the similarities are a little eerie. Cook is 6-1 (Rockies 7-1 in his starts), Webb is 8-0 (Dbacks 8-0 in his starts). Cook has 55.2 innings pitched, Webb has 56. Cook has allowed 14 earned runs (17 total), Webb has allowed 15 (18 total). Cook has 107 ground ball outs, Webb has 109. Webb has about twice the strikeouts and a better WHIP, but seriously folks, this would almost be too close to call if not for the disparities between the bullpens and the offense. Advantage: Webb. To sum it up: DO NOT miss this game! (Ah crap, I'm gonna miss the game.)

Then this weekend we begin... dun dun dun.... inter-league play. Though it looks like it's just... a weekend of inter-league play, which makes no sense to me, but that's why there are more enlightened people writing much more about baseball. Since I know hardly anything about this year's Tigers (and don't have time to do justice to research :(), I will point you to the Tim Brown column  on the Indians and Tigers. Later this week Jim can lead us in a debate of the merits and pitfalls of inter-league play. 

With that... good night! See you tomorrow for Email the Booth Night!

Arizona completed their spring training with a 9-4 victory over the Monterrey Sultanes last night at Chase. The visitors took the lead in the top of the first, but after Arizona scored three times in the second, they largely rolled from there on. These stats don't count overall, but Upton and Young each had two hits, including a homer; Reynolds added a three-run shot, a monster bomb which cannoned off the facade of the second deck in left.; Hudson two hits and a walk; and Chris Snyder two walks. The roof at Chase was closed during the seventh inning, in observance of "Earth Hour, but on a worrying note, Jackson was sent home after batting practice, with the dreaded 'flu-like symptoms'.

Perhaps the most encouraging thing, was Micah Owings pitching five innings without allowing a walk and throwing 52 strikes in 71 pitches. He did allow nine hits and three earned runs, but it still looks like his best performance of the pre-season. "Now the real stuff is about to begin. I'm going to key in on this and take it as a positive going forward," he said afterwards. i certainly hope so: with the anticipated loss of Davis, Owings would be our #4 starter, rather than the #5, while we wait for DD and Johnson to return. His Cactus League outings have not been what we wanted to see.

It has certainly been a better month for our hitters than our pitchers. Obviously, it's hard to compare stats with the Grapefruit League, which is generally less hitter-friendly, but we led all National League franchises with a .297 batting average this spring, and had an overall line of .297/.372/.476. On the other hand, our team ERA ended up at 6.15, ahead of only the Giants and Astros, and allowed more homers than anyone else. One bright point there, however, is that we also struck-out more opposing hitters than anyone, save the Mets.

Think it turned out to be less predictable a month than we expected. Going in to spring training, about the only questions were whether Tracy and Johnson would be ready for Opening Day. But, while the Opening Day lineup looks to be exactly as anticipated, we end up with four men on the Opening Day roster whom I didn't expect to be there: Robby Hammock, Brandon Medders, Yusmeiro Petit and Alex Romero. Let's take a look at each of them, and see how they got there.

Robby Hammock Though it was known that Miguel Montero had broken his right index finger playing winter ball in Venezuela, as late as the end of February, Melvin was saying "I couldn’t say I would rule out ‘Miggy’ right now." However, the healing was much slower than anticipated, and he will now go in to extended spring training before heading to Tucson on rehab. The current estimate is he "might rejoin the D-backs before May 1." As a result, Hammock, who turns 31 six weeks, will start his fifth season in the majors, though he has yet to reach 200 at-bats in any of them - and probably won't get there in 2008. Melvin said Hammock will play once a week, to give Snyder a day off, but having hit .208/.283/.292 in spring, isn't likely to see much more action.

Brandon Medders Out of options and dispatched to Triple-A in the middle of last season, Medders looked likely to be waived or traded before Opening Day. However, the Vegas hotel-like implosion of Dustin Nippert opened the door, and Medders had a quietly effective Cactus campaign, allowing 13 hits in 12 innings, with four walks and nine strikeouts. Here's hoping he returns to the form shown in 2006, when he had a 3.64 ERA in 71.2 innings - he did okay after returning from Tucson late last season, allowing two runs in seven innings, on seven hits. Let's have no more first-pitch grand-slams, please.

Yusmeiro Petit He gets his chance because of the promotion of Edgar Gonzalez to the rotation, as replacement for Johnson and Davis - the Petit Unit will take over EdGon's role as long relief, and may end up with a spot-start or two, it there's a need for any additional arm in the rotation. He had an excellent spring, with a sub-three ERA in 12.1 innings, and an outstanding K:BB ratio of 17:3. Still on 23, he will be continuing to develop, and produced a very credible ERA+ of 103 last season, making ten starts. To quote one scout, "He doesn't have a power arm but has a plan and the ability to execute." He has to be good. We sponsor his Baseball-Reference.com page. :-)

Alex Romero Battling for the left-handed bench spot were Romero and Trot Nixon - the latter an 11-year veteran, the former without a major-league at-bat to his name. But it's the rookie who won out, after hitting .345 in spring, and even the fact he can't play first-base couldn't stop him. Don't expect power from Romero; in 202 career games at Triple-A, he has just five homers, but good contact skills, with a K:BB ratio of 75:52 over that time. He's still only 24, so as a waiver-wire pickup, claimed by us in January 2007, he's proving quite acceptable. Loved his reaction on hearing the news he was on the roster: "I have to go buy a phone card right now."

Time for the final recap of Heroes and Villains from Spring Training. As always, the sample size here makes this almost as meaningless as the games themselves - that said, isn't it better to have a good pre-season than a bad one? Our hitters were generally very productive, with six of our starting eight batting .300 or better [Stephen Drew got there right at the end!]. For some reason, those named "Chris" appeared to do particularly well...

With that, we end the dress-rehearsals. There's now less than 24 hours to go before the curtain goes up on our first pitch of the 2008 major-league season. I can almost taste it now, though the weather forecast for Cincinnati is questionable, with a 40% chance of rain tomorrow. I really hope they get the game in, not least because I have taken the day off work for the occasion. [Actually, I'd maxed out the hours in my vacation bank, and if I didn't take time out, would have stopped accruing them. Opening Day seemed like as good a time as any to do it!]

I hope you're all enjoying SnakePit v2.0. I want to thank Trei and his team for making it such a smooth changeover, and for answering all our questions and my bug reports - whether they were for actual bugs or not! There are some really kick-ass features here, such as the new Gameday Threads which automatically refresh and alert you of new posts. I'm in awe of the work that's gone into this. It is still a project in progress, but it promises to be quite phenomenal.

Couple of things to point out; the 'rec' button you see can be used to recommend good posts - if enough people do so for, say, a FanPost, it will eventually be boosted to a special section. If you read something you like, feel free to use it, as a virtual round of applause for the creator. If you find a quick link, video, etc. of interest and want to post that here, without writing up a full story, you can now do that using the FanShots area - Azreous has already done a couple of them.

Today's talking point. Over at Bleed Cubbie Blue, Al has published his 2008 predictions, picking us to finish fourth in the division. Do you think he's still bitter about the whuppin' we inflicted on the Cubs in the playoffs? ;-) But the real question is: what do you think the order of finish will be in the 2008 NL West.

I'll see you all tomorrow morning, for the first game of the year. The winter is over; the spring has gone; it's time for the boys of summer to take over once again. How sweet a thought that is. I think I'll watch The Natural this afternoon.

Play ball!

Of all the hammer-blows to strike the team, three days before Opening Day, discovering one of our starting pitchers has cancer is probably among the least expected and most unfortunate. But that's the situation we find ourselves in, after the news that Doug Davis has thyroid cancer. It seems to run in Davis's family - his mother and sister have been gone through thyroid surgery - and from what I've read, that seems to greatly increase Doug's chances. The good news, if any news can truly be described that way, is that this kind is eminently curable, especially when caught in the early stages, as it seems to have been here. I want to extend my best wishes, and I'm sure those of all SnakePit readers, to Doug and his relations; I met his father, Mike, at last Sunday's game, and a nicer guy it's hard to imagine. Our thoughts are with the entire Davis family, and we'll pulling, like never before, for Doug to get the W.

The current schedule sees Davis going in for surgery on April 10; recovery could be as short as a month, since the surgery is not seen as a major procedure, needing only an overnight stay. However, my instinct is that it will take longer than that, perhaps six to eight weeks. The surprise to me is that Davis is still intent on making his first two starts of the season, on April 3 vs the Reds, and then against the Dodgers on the 8th before going to have the operation. I can see exactly why that's the case: Doug doesn't want the team to be down two starters at the beginning of the year, and therefore wants to wait until the Big Unit returns, to take his spot in the rotation, before bowing out temporarily. Admirable sentiments, for sure, but I do have qualms about this.

Certainly, looking at last night, the results weren't wonderful, though Davis refused to blame his situation. "I really didn't think about it all, believe it or not. I thought I was actually executing pitches, but everything just got hit out of the park." Since you ask, Doug: no, I don't believe you. ;-) I know for a fact that my mind would not possibly be 100% focussed on the job at hand, and I have to wonder if it would make more sense if he bowed out now. It's only two starts, and we have options for the rotation who can, it seems, do a credible job of filling in for him. I know it's not what Doug wants - according to Melvin, "As I'm trying to grasp the news, he's trying to talk me into his next start" - and I have enormous respect for that, but sometimes, even the biggest hero needs to do what's best for the team.

Assuming for the moment he stays, this would appear to mean that Edgar Gonzalez will be in the rotation for at least the first couple of months. Taking EdGon out of the bullpen opens up an additional spot there; s'funny, it means we could probably have kept Nippert around for another month or so, but more on that in a moment. Replacing him as long relief will be Yusmeiro Petit, with Brandon Medders completing a sterling comeback to claim the spot which, just a month ago, looked to be gift-wrapped and with a label marked "For Dustin" on it. Jailen Peguero ends up getting optioned down to Tucson, but that gives you a clue for part of the reason for the move - he had options left, and Medders didn't. But it likely won't be the end: said Melvin, "I'd be shocked if Jailen Peguero wasn't a part of this team at some point this year." He only allowed 13 K's in eleven spring innings, with just three runs allowed, for a 2.45 ERA, the lowest of any AZ pitcher with ten or more IP.

As noted elsewhere, Dustin Nippert is now Dustin the wind, having been traded to Texas for High-A pitcher Jose Marte, whom we'll have to call J-Mart, I guess. Have to say, he's old for his level, turning 25 in less than two weeks, and he hardly lit up the mound last season, posting a 5.91 ERA in 40 games for Bakersfield. This definitely seems like a case of us knowing Nippert wouldn't go through waivers if we tried that, so getting the proverbial bag of balls, as better than nothing. Do have some sympathy for him, not least because he also became a father for the second time yesterday, before discovering he'd been traded. Good luck to him, and may he get a chance in Texas.

Last night's game was...what it was. Davis got hammered, but his mere presence on the mound was an achievement in itself; the middle-relief was excellent (4.1 innings of one-hit ball); our C-list pitchers got roughed up by the Rockies' C-list hitters. They used 28 players, we used 27. The official attendance was 24,663, but I sense a good number of the season ticket holders, who found tickets forcibly included in their packages, stayed home. The actual attendance was probably down in the teens. Hudson and Reynolds had a pair of hits each, Young went yard, and Drew had a hit and a walk.

Fun GameDay Thread though; good to get the old commenting muscles warmed up in time for Monday. Thanks to those who took part: snakecharmer, dstorm, Silverblood, Devin, soco, Russ and Azreous. Tonight sees the final game of Spring Training, as we play the Mexican champions. That actually sounds a lot more fun than another game against Colorado, but it's not on TV or anything useful like that. We're having family over for a dinner, since it's Mrs. SnakePit's mother's birthday. The smell of roast pork, rice and beans is already driving me nuts. ;-)

Monday - Opening Day - marks ten years to the day since the first-ever game for the Diamondbacks. The Tribune cover the past decade in a series of articles, going back to the moment when Colangelo nearly bailed, after MLB suddenly upped the expansion fee by $20m. There's also a 76-picture slideshow of the past decade, covering moments both high (the World Series, natch) and low (Jose Jimenez's no-hitter against us). I like the one of Johnson reacting in 2000, after getting hit by a pitch, and also found some good ones for future lolbacking. Brought back some memories.

So I get up this morning, pop over to check the SnakePit fantasy baseball league for the first time in a couple of days, and discover all hell has broken loose, with Zephon dumping all his players on to the waiver wire for a bit of a laugh. A feeding frenzy resulted: which, of course half the teams, missed out on entirely. That slamming sound you hear was any prospect of fair competition closing the door on its way out. So I just had to spend two hours reversing all the recent moves, setting his team back to what it was at Draft Day and locking it down. Memo to all: if you don't want to be in the league, take another hit from the goddamn bong instead, and don't frickin' sign up. Really. It's not difficult. Apologies to those on the waiting list who didn't get in.

Following on somewhat from the video which compared us, for questionable reasons, to Nickelback, The Good Phight has also compared NL teams to bands. We are The Eagles, in part because we were, "Initially assembled from members of other great groups, they later developed their own look and sound, including ditching the hideous clothes of their early days." I particularly liked the Giants entry, comparing them to The Grateful Dead: "Defined for years by the presence of a bloated, drug-addled figurehead who all the fans paid to see, at the expense of developing or addressing the needs of the rest of the group." I'm tempted to do something similar, and compare teams to movies, or something along those lines.

Okay, this will be the last post on the old platform - shock announcements concerning starting pitchers excepted, of course. :-( I spent the rest of the morning, when not repairing our fantasy league, configuring our new lodgings, and the move is expected to take place shortly after midnight tonight. Not sure what time zone that's in, but I'm thinking it's likely Pacific. The address will remain unchanged, but it'll look and feel different. I think you're going to like it. Techgod Trei will be posting a get started guide, but since I intend to have a lie-in tomorrow, you can also find a tutorial on the basics of posting here. See you on SnakePit 2.0!

Today's talking point: should Doug Davis make his first two starts?

It looks like the data center move for this weekend has indeed likely knocked Diamondbacks Bullpen off temporarily. I'd like to welcome all visiting D-backs fans, jonesing for their fix of random chit-chat. We'll be here until that site comes back up. Well, except for a brief period Sunday morning, when we'll be moving to SnakePit v2.0. Er, hopefully...

Link

[That one's for hotclaws. ;-)]

One of these days, I'm going to get home before 10pm, and have a chance to write a post without having sternly to resist the siren-call of the bed. However, that day is not today.

I'll therefore be brief, and just point out that we finally got a good outing from one of our starters. Dan Haren pitched seven innings of three-hit ball, with the only damage coming on a pair of solo leadoff homers in the second and fifth, as Arizona rolled over the White Sox 8-4. Said Haren, "I felt really good. I wanted to make sure I went out there six or seven times to get my innings in and my pitch count up. I felt good, even out there in the seventh." At the plate, Jackson was 2-for-3 with a homer, and Robby Hammock had easily his best day of spring, going 3-for-4. Chris Young reached three times, with a hit and two walks, while Upton had a hit and a walk.

In something of a shock, Alex Romero has made the Diamondbacks' roster, pipping Trot Nixon for the final spot. It simply seems like Bob Melvin decided to go with the hot-hand: in spring, Romero's hit .333 and Nixon only .218 - though the gap was much narrower in OPS, where Romero's edge was only .722/.720, mostly because he only had one extra-base hit. While Romero is left-handed, he has no experience playing first, which means that Chris Burke will be backing up Jackson at first, until Chad Tracy is ready. That also means no 40-man roster move is necessary. The final bullpen spot is still to be decided, but with Edgar Gonzalez replacing Johnson, that would appear to leave room for both Nippert and Medders, at least initially.

Back to Chase Field for the D-backs tomorrow, facing [yawn!] the Rockies one final time, before the start of the season. That one's on FSN, so I certainly hope to get to watch some of it; might even run a Gameday Thread, if anyone is interested? Today's Talking Point Do you believe Jose Canseco's allegations about Alex Rodriguez asking him where to get steroids?

Apparently, according to Ben, I have "gotten a little wordy." Not quite sure what he means by that: this is, after all, a blog - and much as it might be amusing to have posts consisting entirely of stick figure reenactments of spring training games, I fear the novelty of it would wear off swiftly. I will admit that it has been kinda tough over the past month: I'm basically writing about games which no-one has seen, and without any significant conflicts upon which I can hang a few posts. Let's face it, the question of whether Trot Nixon is the 25th man on the roster or not, has hardly kept me awake at nights, and is not the stuff of which deathless prose is made.

However, in deference to his criticisms, I will keep this...less wordy. Diamondbacks win, 11-8. See you tomorrow.

What? You want more than that? Sheesh. Some people... :-)

Is anyone else already fed up of the Rockies? That's five times we've played them already this spring, with a sixth to follow on Saturday - that'll decide the Cactus League series, since it's currently split 2-2, with the first game ending in a tie. Mind you, tomorrow, we'll be playing the White Sox for the seventh time in a month, including a day of split-squad games where we faced them twice, in two separate countries. However, at least we won't be facing them another eighteen times in the regular season.

Let's actually start elsewhere, on the practice fields behind Tucson Electric Park, where Randy Johnson pitched, away from the Rockies, against some White Sox prospects. The results weren't brilliant - nine hits and five runs in 3.1 innings - but Johnson was working on his change-up, which he's looking to use as an alternate off-speed pitch, alongside his slider. The Big Unit said, "Of all the Spring Training starts I've made, I actually physically felt the best today. The results may not have been there, which is OK because I didn't care about the results. I was giving up base hits, but I was throwing three straight changeups. My opportunity to work on things now is critical because I don't have very many starts left." Next start will be in Tucson, April, 3 for the Sidewinders first game - it's thought he'll make two rehab appearances there before rejoining the team.

Replacing Johnson against Colorado was Hector Ambriz, though I think few people would be expecting much. Five hits, two homers, two walks? That would be about it, even if five K's in four innings isn't bad. Dustin Nippert followed. As did three hits, two walks and two more earned runs in his inning. "I think I like it here in Tucson," he said afterwards. "On the whole, I'd rather not be with the major-league team." Ok: I made that up. It's just phenomenally frustrating to see someone like Nippert, who can pitch, struggle like this. But the promise shown in his last outing - where he retired three straight batters to strand the tying run on third - evaporated. It seems that the Petit Unit is "under strong consideration" for Johnson"s spot. This would keep EdGon in the bullpen, and mean Nippert or Medders would get waived: on spring training performances, it's no contest, though obviously other factors come into play.

At the plate, plenty of hits to go around. Alex Romero had three hits, two RBI and, I was particularly pleased to notice, also threw Troyboy out at the plate. Chris Snyder was, perhaps, even better: five plate-appearances, and he reached safely every time, on three hits and two walks. driving in two runs and throwing out a base-stealer as well. Drew, Reynolds and Burke each had a pair of knocks, and even Trot Nixon had a hit and two walks. Say what you like about the performances of our starting pitchers this spring - and "they've got their work in" is about as kind as I can be - the offense has been productive. Five of our starters are hitting .316 or better: Upton (.316), Young (.333), Hudson (.346), Jackson (.349)...and who had Chris Snyder (.390 and 5 HR) in the 'Best Hitting Diamondback' pool? Ojeda and Burke are also above .300.

Finally, the Hardball Times posted my Five Questions: Arizona Diamondbacks. Be amusing to look back on that at the end of the season and see how accurate - or not - I've been. Hopefully, I'll have done a little better than the 2006 version - not, I should stress, written by me. There, the fifth question was "Does this team stand a chance at winning the West any time soon?" The answer was, "Not with the current state of the pitching staff." Of course, we all know what happened the following year, don't we? Must give points to the writer for predicting, "By 2008, the team should be positioned to field a lineup of high-upside talent at a relatively low cost, thereby allowing significant resources to be directed to upgrading the starting rotation behind Webb." However, they're all lost, and then some, by adding, "and then, probably Nippert." Oh, how the mighty are fallen...

2008 has started, and much as 2007 ended, with the Red Sox winning - albeit only just, taking ten innings to defeat the Oakland A's. It's good to have "proper" baseball back again, though I am using the quotes advisedly, since the first game of the season took place in Japan. I'm all in favor of broadening the international appeal of the game, but I am not sure that this is the way to do it. I certainly know that I had little or no interest in getting up in the middle of the night to watch the event. Opening Day? It's vastly over-rated: the Diamondbacks will get to see it in three different stadiums this year, playing the home opener in Cincinnati and Colorado, as well as in Arizona.

Back in America - y'know, where Opening Day is supposed to take place - it's now six one-run games in a row for Arizona, after they went down to the Angels in Tucson, by a score of 9-8. This one was started by Brandon Webb, and it was another less than impressive outing by our ace, in his final outing before Opening Day. He allowed ten hits in only 4.1 innings, also walking his first batter of the year. The result was seven runs - two were unearned, thanks to a throwing error by Mark Reynolds, but that still leaves Webb with a Cactus League ERA of 8.50, having allowed 34 hits in 18 innings. That puts him...well, basically in line with the rest of our starters: only Davis (4.15) has an ERA to brag about. With one or zero starts left, we also have Haren (5.14), Johnson (6.75) and Owings (9.77). Here's to much better things, as of Monday.

Webb was brutal on himself afterwards, saying, "Honestly, I'm not really where I want to be - definitely not in midseason form yet by any means. Pitch-count-wise and stuff, I think we're good. Arm-strength-wise and condition-wise, I didn't feel too tired... We'll just have to work on a few things in the 'pen and get after it in Cincinnati." Of the rest of the pitchers, Chad Qualls was the best, pitching a perfect sixth. Bongiovanni - no, me neither - allowed a walk in the ninth, Pena a walk and a hit in the eight, and Conor Robertson picked up the loss. He had to rescue Webb in the fifth, but allowed two runs of his own in the sixth, to give the Angels their third lead of the game.

Arizona had a handy advantage of their own at one point, scoring four time in the third and adding two more in the fourth, to make it a 7-4 game at that point. Each team had 14 hits and four walks: for the Diamondbacks, Drew, Hudson and Reynolds all had three hits, with Special K the pick of the litter, smacking a home-run and two doubles, driving in two runs. Conor Jackson reached base three times, with two hits and a walk, and had three RBI, while Upton had a pair of walks. No luck for Hammock, however, whose latest ohfer dropped his spring average to .140. That was despite being told by Melvin before the game, that he was officially on the Opening Day roster. Though given Miguel Montero, our only other catcher, has yet to face a pitch this year, if that came as any surprise to Hammock, I'd be rather concerned.

Steve Gilbert floats an interesting point. If Trot Nixon fills the final spot in the roster, he's going to have to be added to the 40-man roster - which is already full. If Medders or Nippert were waived, that would solve that one, but with EdGon likely to start in the rotation, we might end up with both men in the bullpen. Gilbert mentions Emiliano Fruto, whom we traded for only last August, sending Triple-A first-baseman Chris Carter to the Nationals [Carter's now on the Red Sox 40-man roster]. Certainly, looking at the current 40-man, there doesn't seem to be much slack. But do we really want to lose Fruto, when Nixon might not be with the club for even a month?

While too late for our draft, Razzball asked me to take a look at the D-backs for fantasy purposes. Mind you, given the blasted wasteland of a pitching staff which I ended up with on Saturday [It looks a bit better, now that I've added some hurlers whose count of functioning limbs does not end at three], I hardly feel like any kind of expert, but I do think that there will be some valuable players to be found on the Arizona roster this season. Of course, valuable in a fantasy sense does not necessarily equate to valuable in a broader sense; fantasy baseball values BA rather than OBP, for example. It might be interesting to do a league that dumps wins for pitchers and RBI for hitters, and goes towards a more sabermetric approach.

Rob Neyer came up with the Best 50 players over the next five years. They include Brandon Webb at #17, Dan Haren at #31 and Justin Upton at #43, though the last-named "would rank a lot higher if we were looking 10 years down the road instead of five." I don't know about you, but I think the unlisted Chris Young might be a bit better than, say, Melky Cabrera, whom Neyer has at #46. Finally, somewhat off the wall, Fanhouse have a series that compares MLB teams to bands. They've now got up the Diamondbacks' entry: we are Nickelback. I am not quite sure what to make of this - except "For f'ks sake, please start the goddamn baseball season!" - but that may be because I've never been all that keen on Nickelback. Neither is the creator of the video. Today's comment starter If the Diamondbacks were a tree, what kind of tree would they be?

I've confirmed the date and section, though the tickets are on the first-base side [the 3rd-base area only had ten left]. A link can be found below, for people to buy tickets, and I've also added one to the sidebar for when this story slides down the page. Clicking the button will take you to PayPal and you can either pay with PayPal or any major credit-card. The default quantity is one ticket; if you want more, when you reach PayPal, put in the number you want and press the 'Update' button and it will calculate the total.

Tickets will be available until about the All-Star break, but we do have a limited number and it will be first-come, first served. I won't be handing out tickets until nearer the day, so if you want to buy, say, two now, then find you need more later, I should be able to arrange for you all to sit together. Get family, get friends, and let's rock Chase!

With one week to go until Opening Day, it's time to open the last box and come up with a number for Diamondback wins in 2008. To explain my general approach here, I start from a baseline of last year's victory total. Then, I take a modular approach, looking at each aspect of the game and seeing whether it can be expected to get better or worse. This is based on personnel that have come and gone, as well as prospected changes in their performance as a result of agine and other factors. I can't claim that this approach is particularly methodical or systematic, but as famed baseball analyst Bob Dylan once said, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. I am, however, still trying to work out what he meant by "Walk on your tip toes, Don't try "No Doz", Better stay away from those that carry around a fire hose."

Baseline: 90 wins The Diamondbacks had the best record in the National League, and were remarkable consistent throughout the year: they never lost more than 13 or less than 11 games in any month. They were particularly effective at home, going 50-31 while played just about .500 on the road (40-41). As had been documented to the point of tedium, their one-run record was good (32-20), but perhaps even more important was was their phenomenal 24-9 record against the NL East, the highest winning percentage of any team in the majors against another division.

The team were also particularly good against bad opponents, going 45-25, the best in the league. [The strength of the NL West, incidentally, is shown by the gap in the number of games played against weak teams. The poor Giants faced sub-.500 opponents only 44 times - the Brewers played them on 98 occasions] Perhaps of some concern, we only played .500 baseball against the rest of the division, with 8-10 records against the Dodgers or Rockies, and 10-8 facing the Padres or Giants. The team were also best in the league facing southpaws, with 28 wins and only 17 defeats.

Starting Pitching There's no doubt that replacing Livan Hernandez by Dan Haren is a significant upgrade here. Webb looks likely to be a Cy Young contender yet again and has improved his ERA three years in row. The big questionmark is what we get from Johnson; however, last year, he, the Petit Unit and EdGon combined for 32 starts and the same triple-headed monster will likely prove to be our #3 starter again, though the almost-equal division among them may change. In 2007, they delivered a 9-12 record, so I'm hoping for something slightly better.

I want to think that Doug Davis will be a solid presence in the #4 spot, giving us something around .500. However, his peripheral stats were so horrific in the previous campaign, that if he can't cut back on the walks, the losses will pile up quicker than the wins. Was initially feeling good about Micah Owings chances of improving on his 8-8 performance, but that optimism has been shaken by his somewhat unreliable appearances this spring [yes, I know it doesn't count, but when your ERA is in double-digits, that's enough of an aberration to raise warning flags]. Overall, though, I think the plusses outnumber the minuses, especially if we can keep Johnson healthy. Expected change: +3 wins

Bullpen It'd be nice to see the relief corps remaining as rock-solid as they were - the team was 65-8 when leading after six innings in 2007. However, all four Relievers of the Apocalypse basically performed at the highest level we could have hoped for; it seems unlikely they'll all be as good, though I don't know which one will take the biggest step backwards. The replacement of Valverde with Qualls looks like it will be pretty much a wash; Lyon should be okay as closer, and if he isn't, Peña is an adequate alternative. Cruz and Qualls slot in nicely behind those two, and whoever's left will basically be mopping up innings, so will have negigible impact on the win total.

The key question here is probably whether we can reproduce the same record in one-run games, due to good work by the bullpen and bench. The general consensus is that these are a product of "luck", but in three years under Bob Melvin, we have an 82-64 record in them. [He didn't have the same success in Seattle, but it may be a combination of managerial tactics and roster composition - the 2004 Mariners, 20-30 in one-run games, only had one reliever with an ERA below 3.50. Arizona had five] I think we'll do well in close games again this year, just not quite to the same height experienced last season. Expected change: -2 wins

Offense The question is not whether we'll get better here, but more how much we will get better. There were encouraging signs in 2007, where our OPS increased 38 points after we fired hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, and the last month of the season saw our highest figures for BA, OBP and SLG. In September, we had a .272/.354/.457 line, the .811 OPS good enough for fifth-best in the league. It'd be nice, if perhaps wishful thinking, to see us reproduce that all this year, and there are too many variables to be able to count on this. Three starters - Young, Reynolds and Upton - have a season or less of major-league experience, and while I expect all to do well, predicting how much they'll improve is almost impossible.

That side, we are a team mostly on the upside of the aging curve, and we should improve, simply as a result of experience. Jackson and Snyder, in particular, broke out in the second-half and if we can get Tracy healthy and productive again, that'll be a very useful boost. I am somewhat concerned about the bench. This was an area of strength last season and, while I have few qualms about Jackson as an everyday player, we will miss Clark - properly used (basically, at home against RHP), he was a ferocious weapon to have when you needed him. I'm as yet unconvinced Trot Nixon will prove a suitable replacement in any area, offensive or defensive. Expected change: +2 wins

Defense As for offense, much for defense; age and experience are on Arizona's side, almost all around the park. In Byrnes, Upton and Young, we may have the fastest outfield in baseball [something that may also help the offense on the basepaths], and I want to point out that Jackson has been playing first for barely two full seasons' worth of games [257 in the majors, 73 in the minors] so is still "learning" the position to some extent. Hudson seemed to take a step back last year, despite another Gold Glove; he'll likely be reliable, and I don't have major problems at any position. Expected change: +1 win

Intangibles Okay, basically, this is where I take into account the whole Pythagorean thing where Baseball-Reference.com tells me - with a sneer, it seems - that Arizona were +11 due to "luck" in 2007. Some of that has already been addressed under the bullpen section. But I am prepared to concede that it would be unwise, shall we say, to rely on Arizona beating Pythagoras by levels seen once per generation or less. The youth of our team works for and against us here; half our team has never known a losing month, and one wonders how they will cope with adversity if they face it. A good start will go a long way to solidifying the self-belief necessary to repeat as champions; especially since, after the Reds series, we play 22 straight games against our divisional rivals. The NL West title won't be decided in April, but a strong statement early on would certainly be nice. Expected change: -2 wins

Overall: 92 wins
That sounds about right to me; we should improve both on starting pitching and offense, and that will hopefully counter a backslide in the bullpen and any regression to the mean for Pythagoras.

Another day, another one-run game: at least that's something which has carried over from last season. Ten of the last fourteen spring training games we've played have been decided by one run, including the last five in a row - let's hope our regular-season form there will be a little better, as our Cactus League record in them is a mediocre 6-7 since we started. Today, however, we did come out on the winning side, pipping the Giants 6-5. blowing two leads before hanging grimly to another. "Grimly" being the operative word; we sent Nippert to the mound for the ninth with a two-run lead, and there was one run in, plus the tying man on third, before he got an out. However, two strikeouts and a groundout salvaged things nicely.

Micah Owings' control issues continued, with four walks in five innings, giving him 13 in 15.2 for the spring. He did avoid the hits, getting in to the fifth with only one allowed there, though relied severely on the arm of Robby Hammock, who gunned down two Giants' base-stealers in the first inning. But he did waver from that fifth inning, being pulled surrendering back-to-back homers in the sixth. "I'm not concerned, and I don't think anybody should be concerned," Owings said. "The minute you start to get concerned, you start to press. I'm just going to take it each outing, each game, each pitch, and focus on that. I'm not going to start thinking too much." No, that's what we're here for... ;-S Between those two, Medders and Slaten pitched 2.2 shutout innings - good to see the latter back in action.

At the plate, Conor Jackson was the man, driving in three runs, two of them with his second spring homer, though he also hit into a double-play. Augie Ojeda had two hits and two RBI, while Jeff Salazar and Eric Byrnes each had two hits. Chris Burke continued to be the man of a thousand faces, this time playing third-base. He had a hit, an RBI and stole his fourth base, tying him for the team lead with Justin Upton, though Burke has the edge in that his record is perfect, while JUpton's been caught twice. Hammock got another start behind the mask - he now has more at-bats than Chris Snyder, though since he's now hitting .154 after today's ohfer, perhaps he just needs more of them.

Randy Johnson was scheduled to start Wednesday against the Rockies, but will pitch in a minor-league game instead. That's partly to stop Colorado from getting to see him, but also would allow the Diamondbacks to backdate his DL stint at the beginning of the year, since only games to which admission are charged are included. Since his last start was March 21st, that would mean he could return at any date after April 6. He probably won't pitch at all on the opening road-trip; the previously-mooted idea of having him pitch the home opener on April 7th could make sense. That would slot him in between Webb and Haren, and keep him separated from the other lefty, Doug Davis.

Oh, and look! diamondbacks.com has a counter to Opening Day on their home page! Wonder where on earth they got THAT idea from? :-)