With half of the teams now out of the post-season and only the Championship Series to play until the World Series, my thoughts are to keep one thread open per series. Depending on the activity level, we will adjust how future gameday threads are opened and handled. We hope that, with increased interest in the Championship Series' results, that these threads will continue to draw knowledgeable and well-meaning baseball fans from all over. (Note, however, that these open threads are not to be misconstrued as a place where visiting fans can gloat about their teams' successes; please take excessive celebratory remarks home.)

Game 1: 10/10, 5:35pm AZT, TBS
Series Tied 0-0

Daisuke Matsuzaka
RHP, 18-3, 2.90

0-0, 5.40 ERA

James Shields
RHP, 14-8, 3.56

1-0, 4.26 ERA

Again, I'm still sick, so I have nothing profound to say about this series. :(

With half of the teams now out of the post-season and only the Championship Series to play until the World Series, my thoughts are to keep one thread open per series. Depending on the activity level, we will adjust how future gameday threads are opened and handled. We hope that, with increased interest in the Championship Series' results, that these threads will continue to draw knowledgeable and well-meaning baseball fans from all over. (Note, however, that these open threads are not to be misconstrued as a place where visiting fans can gloat about their teams' successes; please take excessive celebratory remarks home.)

Game 2: 10/10, 1:35pm AZT, FOX
Phillies Lead 1-0

Chad Billingsley
RHP, 16-10, 3.14

1-0, 1.35 ERA

Brett Myers
RHP, 10-13, 4.55

1-0, 2.57 ERA

The Phillies won 3-2 yesterday on two very timely home runs to erase a 2-0 deficit and go up to stay 3-2.

I am not feeling well today so this is all you get. :( if someone else wants to write a preview, I'm happy to paste it in here later today.

Got a letter from the Diamondbacks today. Fortunately, it wasn't a cease-and-desist, but an invitation to come to the Fall League. Basically, they're giving us as many tickets as we had for the group outing in August, to go to a Fall League game for free. Since that would be more than 50, thought it might be nice to get together at one of these.

Poll opinions were basically evenly split on this. However, when I brought up the issue to Mrs. SnakePit, and mentioned the two dates, she gave me what could be described as the Look of Death. I'd forgotten that October 25th is actually the SnakePitette's 21st birthday, so that one is clearly a no-go. November 15th it is. We intend to tailgate for a couple of hours before the game, so you're welcome to join us at the park for that. More details nearer the time

Much though it may seem difficult to believe, by a lot of measures, the Arizona bullpen was not as horrifically ineffective as it seemed. Their ERA of 4.09 was equal sixth-best in the league, without any park adjustment, and batters' OPS against them was also better than the National League average. They weren't particularly "unlucky" either, with a BABIP exactly on the mean at .298. Yet, somehow, they posted a record of 17-28 over the season: As a comparison, Houston's bullpen had exactly the same ERA as us this year, but they went 26-23 - if the Diamondbacks had done that, we'd have won the league.

Even breaking it down to individual innings doesn't shed any particular light on things. Our worst inning, by quite some distance, was the first, where the opposition scored 92 times. Next was the third, at 86 - neither of these can be blame on the bullpen. The last three innings were down at 79, 77 and 74 runs respectively, and each of them was also almost spot-on the average OPS for the team (.716), with figures of .716, .715 and.718. Yet the team lost fifteen games they were winning after six innings - almost twice as many as the eight dropped last season, when the bullpen ERA was only fractionally better, at 3.95.

Again, that slump in results would be the difference between first and second, right there. It begins to look as if the bullpen was simply remarkably unclutch. They didn't allow a particularly large number of runs, but the ones they did had a nasty habit of proving crucial in deciding the outcome. The 'Late and Close' stat - 7th inning on with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck - does give some hint of that. The team figure for OPS was .729, and it'd be higher if you remove our starters in that situation: Haren (.710), Davis (.675), Johnson (.650) and Webb (a stunning .538), who combined for about 20% of those at-bats. Some of our bullpen did thrive there, led by Qualls (.641) and Cruz (.655). Others didn't.

Here's are the stats for our seven top relievers, by innings pitched, and some comments on each.

         G  W-L  S   IP  ERA  H  R ER HR BB SO
Qualls  77  4-8  9 73.2 2.81 61 29 23  4 18 71
Pena    72  3-2  3 72.2 4.33 80 38 35  5 17 52
Lyon    61  3-5 26 59.1 4.70 75 34 31  7 13 44
Cruz    57  4-0  0 51.2 2.61 34 17 15  5 31 71
Slaten  45  0-3  0 32.1 4.73 33 20 17  4 14 20
Rosales 27  1-1  0 30   4.20 32 15 14  2 15 18
Rauch   26  0-6  1 23.1 6.56 27 18 17  6  9 22

Chad Qualls. Started the season very well, with a scoreless streak of 16.2 innings, and finished it almost as strong, with another one of 14.2 frames. In the middle, however, he had his struggles, most notable a spell where he suddenly couldn't stop inherited runners from scoring. From June 2-July 4, his own ERA was only 4.38, but he allowed eight of ten base-runners who were there when he arrived, to cross home-plate. He also was the victim of the defense: on May 7, he had an 0-3 record, despite an ERA under one, because six of the eight runs he'd allowed to that point were unearned. Probably was our best reliever, keeping opponents to a .601 OPS. Shame it took Melvin until mid-September to make him the closer.

Tony Pena. He was the Mark Reynolds of the bullpen; he would have a streak where he was incredible, then suddenly, would struggle in a way that made you wonder if he'd ever be good again. 40% of those earned runs came in just four outings. He was particularly good with two outs and runners in scoring position, holding opponents to a .184 average, and generally pitched much in close games. When tied or in one-run games, batters hit .203 in 153 at-bats; if the margin was two or more, the figure was .274, and when four or more, he seemed to give up entirely, with the OBA was all the way up to .333.

Brandon Lyon. Poor Brandon. Partly the victim of a .342 BABIP. Was it over-use? Pitching after working the night before, his ERA was 6.92, compared to 4.08 after a rest. We'll never know for sure, but his season imploded on July 19. ERA before that date: 2.37. From that date on: 8.86, and certainly, asking a reliever with known arm issues to throw 27and 28 pitches on consecutive days, seems a questionable decision by Melvin. A small nugget of hope: after being removed from the closer's role, he finished the season with six scoreless innings. I'm just glad it is not my decision whether to offer this free-agent arbitration or not this year, because I have no idea whether he would be worth the risk.

Juan Cruz. We got pretty much what you would expect from Cruz: lots of walks and a phenomenal strikeout rate, 12.37 per nine IP, trailing only Grant Balfour (12.65) among major-league pitchers with 25+ innings. He missed three weeks in July and, despite the best ERA of any of our relievers, seemed to fall out of favor with Melvin - there was a two-week spell in August where he threw just a single inning.  That came immediately after the game on the 9th, in which his throw to second led to Hudson's broken wrist. Cruz was particularly tough on left-handed batters, who hit a mere .159, with 35 strikeouts in only 82 at-bats. Like Lyon, he's now a free-agent: estimates suggest, unlike Lyon, he'll be a Type A, so would bring a very nice haul if he signed elsewhere.

Doug Slaten. Did a credible job at what he was supposed to do, retire left-handed batters, keeping them to a .232/.317/.375 line - though as noted above, Juan Cruz was even more effective. Leaving Slaten in there to face any right-handed batters was highly-questionable, as their OPS against him was a healthy .866. He had an odd home/road split: while the OPS was very similar (.801/.778), his ERA was far better away from Chase (6.48/2.87). Slaten saw very little action after the All-Star break, partly due to injury, but was also sent down to Tucson in late  August. That all combined to limit him to six innings of work in the second-half of the season.

Leo Rosales. Following his recovery from a broken hand caused by an argument with a wall, Rosales made his debut on June 15 and quietly had himself a decent little season. Though at age 27, he no longer really qualifies to be called a "prospect". Control was probably the main issue, allowing fifteen walks in only thirty innings, but over his first eighteen games and 21.1 innings, his ERA was a respectable 2.53. A couple of bad outing inflated his numbers in the last couple of months, but he is likely among the leading contenders for a full-time bullpen spot from Opening Day in 2009.

Jon Rauch. He picked up six losses for Arizona, in only 23.1 innings of work: as far as I can see, that's an all-time record [the nearest I could find were Jaime Navarro, who went 0-5 in 18.2 IP for the 2000 Brewers, and Ed Farmer, 0-6 in 26.2 IP for the 1983 Phillies]. The main reason is his ineffectiveness when the game was tied. Batters hit .320 (16-for-50), with an OPS of 1.027 - basically, with the scores level, Rauch made opposing hitters look like Manny Ramirez. That losses then ensued, is not really surprising. Small sample size? Probably. But I do not want to see him in any of those "close and late" situations, until he has proven the ability to retire batters when the game is not on the line.

The National League Championship Series was set yesterday. Jeff Suppan's post-season experience was of no help, as the Phillies homered the Brewers right out of the series on their way to a 6-2 win. They get ready to host the Dodgers starting on Thursday. Today brings the possibilities of deciding the ALCS teams - or of going to Game 5s in both.

2:05pm AZT, TBS

Series: 2-1, Rays

Andy Sonnanstine
RHP, 13-9, 4.38

Gavin Floyd
RHP, 17-8, 3.84

Andy Sonnanstine - who? Not a big name pitcher, but one the Rays need to rely on today. He didn't end the season on a positive note (losing his last 3) but he has handled the White Sox nicely this season, going 1-0 with a sub-3 ERA in 4 starts. But the White Sox finally hit with runners in scoring position yesterday to stave off elimination for at least one more day. They have been energized by their home crowd and send out the young Gavin Floyd to make his post-season debut (as will Sonnanstine) and keep the Rays from getting their big hits in scoring position. (Yahoo lists 17 LOB yesterday.) The Rays need to not let their loss disparage them, and the Sox need to keep their offense going. Should be an interesting matchup.

5:35pm AZT, TBS

Series: 2-1, Sox

John Lackey
RHP, 12-5, 3.75

Series: 0-1, 2.70

Jon Lester
LHP, 16-6, 3.21

Series: 1-0, 0.00

This is a rematch of Game 1 of this series. Can I just copy what I wrote then? ;) Probably not, as I don't think it played out as expected. This was a great low-scoring pitchers' duel. Jon Lester allowed 6 hits but only 1 unearned run, and John Lackey gave up 4 hits but 3 walks and 2 earned runs. Last night's 12-inning affair (won by the Angels) combined with the starters' short starts may have taxed the bullpen. This is particularly important for K-Rod, who threw over 33 pitches in one inning, and Papelbon, who threw 31 pitches in two innings. If Boston can keep Mike Napoli from hitting moon shots tonight,  Boston has a good shot of winning this one.

The Arizona Diamondbacks rotation was one of the team's biggest strengths in 2008. They led the majors in quality starts with 95 [next in the NL were the Phillies, with 88] and they held opponents to an overall line of .256/.315/.393 - the .708 OPS was third-best in the league, even before any park adjustment. Arizona and Milwaukee were the only NL teams to average over six innings per game from their starters; we also struck out 7.81/9 IP, behind just the Lincecum-powered Giants (7.82). Here's a look at the men on the mound for the Diamondbacks this year.

Brandon Webb: 22-7, 3.30 ERA, 1.196 WHIP
226.2 IP, 206 H, 65 BB, 183 K, 13 HR, .242/.302/.334

Despite the increase in ERA, hitters struggled with Webb almost exactly to the same extent as they did last year. Opposing batters' 2007 line was .237/.296/.334, and a fractional increase in BABIP likely explains most of the minimal difference. The reason for the increased win total is probably a significant up-tick in the run support Webb received, going from 4.08 to 4.64 runs per 27 outs. Teams stacked their lineups with lefties again, but Webb improved his performance against them, by 52 points of OPS. On the other hand - literally - righties had seven homers in 416 at-bats, compared to only four in 427 over 2007.

The main difference is likely the lack of a 42-inning scoreless streak, but outside of that, Webb's performance on the mound was everything we have come to expect from our staff ace. The other aspects of his game were also significantly improved; his fielding percentage was .973, a career-high, as was his Range Factor. His at-bats got better too: he came in as a .106 hitter, but batted .149 with four doubles and eleven runs driven in, the latter figure second-best in the National League. Now, if we can just get that contract extension sorted out this winter, we'll all be happy.

Dan Haren: 16-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.130 WHIP
216 IP, 204 H, 40 BB, 206 K, 19 HR, .247/.286/.381

Despite qualms in some quarters outside of Arizona, I think I can safely say that the trade for Haren has proven entirely satisfactory for the Diamondbacks. With an ERA and WHIP basically indistinguishable from Brandon Webb's, his presence gave Arizona a 1-2 punch that was likely second to none in the league. He likely deserved more victories, but the lack of wins was not Haren's fault, to a large extent. In his nine no-decisions, he had an ERA of just 2.79, the first seven all coming in quality starts.

There was concern about his ability to produce over a full season, and it is true that, after his ERA reached a low of 2.56 following the outing of July 25, he did regress. From that point on, his ERA ballooned to 4.78, though he still posted a record of 6-3 in those twelve starts. However, that also included his best game of the season, a complete-game shutout of the Giants on September 16, with 12 strikeouts. Haren's K:BB ratio was a particular strength: his final mark of 5.15 was the best in the National League since 2004. Haren also handled the bat very well, especially for a pitcher coming from the AL, and finished was a .211 average, and only struck out 15 times in 76 at-bats.

Randy Johnson: 11-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.239 WHIP
184 IP, 184 H, 44 BB, 179 K, 24 HR, .260/.306/.422

The Big Unit's quest for 300 wins ended up falling five short, but did prove that his back, which ended the 2007 season abruptly, was not an issue. He missed the first couple of starts, but was solid after that, skipping only one outing the rest of the way. His second-half ERA was 2.41 and his final appearance, allowing no earned runs against the Rockies in a two-hit performance, resulted in a Game Score of 89 - not surpassed by Johnson since his perfect game in Atlanta, in May 2004. Like Haren, he probably deserved a better W-L record: in five of the no-decisions, Randy allowed one earned run or less, and there was a streak of seven games where the offense scored a total of just 13 runs.

While he may have lost a few miles per hour on his pitches, that didn't stop him from being effective. In particular, during the months of July and August, he struck out 72 batters in 70.1 innings, walking only ten over those eleven starts. He didn't allow a single home-run by a left-handed hitter all year. He was initially paired with Montero: results seem to indicate it wasn't the best of parterships, as batters hit fifty points less off Johnson when it was Snyder or Hammock behind the plate. Though nothing has been announced so far, it seems almost certain that the Big Unit will be back in Arizona for 2009, and health permitting, should complete his mission to win 300 games.

Doug Davis: 6-8, 4.32 ERA, 1.534 WHIP
146 IP, 160 H, 64 BB, 112 K, 13 HR, .282/.356/.419

It was simply wonderful to see Doug Davis pitching at all this year. I don't think any of us will forget the grungy feeling we endured when we heard confirmation of the reports that he had thyroid cancer. That he made his first couple of starts - covering for his team until Johnson came back - certainly ranks among the most selfless acts of any sportsman that I can remember. His return in Atlanta at the end of May was another moment to be filed away, and every game after that, regardless of the outcome, was a victory for Doug; and by proxy, you could argue it was also a victory for all those who have had their lives touched by cancer.

As for his performances, much the same as last year. He did cut back on the walks a bit (3.95/9 IP, compared to 4.44 last season), but the hits were exactly as frequent (9.86/9 IP in both years), and as usual, Davis bore down with runners in scoring position, carving 90 points off opponents' OPS there, compared to with the bases empty. It seemed he might be flagging in early August, after back-to-back wretched outings, and I wondered if the therapy was taking its toll. Davis, however, surged back, with a team-leading 3.18 ERA in the last month, though poor run support (nineteen runs in those five starts) left him winless.

Micah and the rest - figures as starters only
Micah Owings: 6-9, 5.72 ERA, 1.371 WHIP, .259/.336/.424
Yusmeiro Petit: 3-4, 4.35 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, .213/.274/.427
Max Scherzer: 0-4, 3.41 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, .262/.338/.362
Edgar Gonzalez: 1-2, 6.00 ERA, 1.741 WHIP, .324/.398/.500

They also served in the rotation, giving us a total of 39 starts - either through design, or to cover for injuries and ineffectiveness. Owings started the season in the #5 spot, and was initially fabulous. He won his first four outings, with an ERA of 2.42, but the hitters gradually caught up with him, and his lack of a reliable third pitch doomed his efforts to go deep into games. In seven starts from May 30 until his removal from the rotation, he had an ERA of 7.71, with batters hitting .300 off Owings. He was traded to the Reds as part of the Dunn deal, and we wish him well.

Behind him, were three pitchers who could be described as The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. The good - and likely #5 starter next year, was Max Scherzer, who exploded on the scene with 4.1 perfect innings in relief, and demonstrated his lethal fastball, striking out 66 in 56 innings of work. The bad: Yusmeiro Petit, who pitched well enough, except for a horrendous home-run rate, allowing 12 long-balls in only 56.1 innings. The ugly: Edgar Gonzalez, who made batters hit like Matt Holliday and slug like Brad Hawpe. His season ended in June due to elbow issues, but he is trying to avoid Tommy John surgery, and is now throwing off a mound. I'm not optimistic.