Search / 317 posts tagged forecasting

Most of the country looks pretty good this Forht of July as America celebrates two hundred thirty-two years of independence. In the Pacafic Northwest things will begin to cooler in parts, but still hot in others and this could spark some showers and thunderstorms.

From the NHC 11 a.m. EDT Public Advisory: TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008 …SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS… And here is the

“Countries that regularly outperform others on innovation not only spend more on science and technology (as a proportion of GDP) but they also institute policies that drive innovation demand and supply.

Each month we report the results from our payroll employment model.  This is not really a forecast.  We take a number of different economic indicators from the middle of the preceding month and ask what change in payroll employment is consistent with the other data.  The variables are not causally related, but are all different measures of the economy.

We recently encountered a worthwhile essay by Jeremy A. Blumenthal, titled “Law and the Emotions: The Problems of Affective Forecasting†(80 Indiana Law Journal (2004)), on SSRN. Here’s the abstract. * * * Legal scholarship on behavioralism and the implications of cognitive biases for the law is flourishing.

Pundits are prized for making bold predictions, but they’re usually not held accountable for their forecasting accuracy. A news-prediction Web site is trying to change that with a pundit-tracking game, pitting the likes of MSNBC commentator Chris Matthews against technology blog TechCrunch and entertainment blogger Perez Hilton.

Yes, I have been lazybusy doing research, which takes priority over blogging (after all the German taxpayer is giving me money to do research, not to blog, and I don't want to disappoint her too much). But I'm still here, and I fully intend to blog from the Lattice 2008 conference in Williamsburg.

Over at GigaOM, Wagner James Au argues that the mammoth launch success of Grand Theft Auto IV is "the beginning of the end" for the next-gen. If a launch that universally successful can't budge hardware sales - and GTA IV really didn't - then "drastic changes" may be to come, says Au: Expect to see

“While the U.S. and other OCED nations often started with similar technological capabilities, the U.S. emerged as a technological leader due in large part to multiple government actions that influenced the innovation system (…) Simply put, investing in R&D alone was not a strategy employed,

“Many ingredients go into creating a flourishing innovative ecosystem. Bright scientists and engineers are essential. A genuine need for technological solutions helps foster new ideas. Money to fund those projects. And perhaps the most underappreciated but essential ingredient is a marketplace.