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Jared Burton, who hasn't pitched since July 11, has been placed on the disabled list retroactive to that date. Todd Coffey was recalled to replace him. Not sure why Coffey and not Josh Roenicke, unless it was a 40-man roster issue.
posted by Shawn at 8:06 PM

 
Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus looks at tradeable commodities as the trading deadline approaches on July 31. On his list is Adam Dunn, and he says the Diamondbacks make sense as a suitor, although he does not speculate on the return. The article is here, and it is free.
posted by Shawn at 10:00 AM

 
The Reds stopped the Mets ten-game winning streak with a 5-2 win. Bronson Arroyo pitched well, and the Mets provided lots of help.

Jay Bruce homered in the bottom of the third, then the Mets came back with two in the top of the fourth. But the Reds got four in the fifth on three singles, three walks (one intentional) and a hit by pitch. That was pretty much it, but that was all that was necessary.

Arroyo went eight innings and gave up four hits and one walk, striking out four. He was charged with the two runs, but that was all the damage. Francisco Cordero, the goat last night, got the last three outs.

Bruce was the only Red with two hits, but Adam Dunn had three walks. Ken Griffey walked twice. The Reds had six hits, but nine walks.

Tomorrow's pitchers will be Josh Fogg and Oliver Perez.

In health news, Ryan Freel will undergo surgery that could end his season. He needs a surgical repair of a tendon in his right knee.
posted by Shawn at 10:10 PM

 
It was back-and-forth, but the Reds failed to capitalize on their routing of Johan Santana as the Mets gained their tenth straight win. Cincinnati's 10 wins in the previous 15 games paled by comparison.

The Mets scored two in the fourth (and the fifth and sixth) while the Reds tallied five times in the bottom of the 4th. Cincinnati added three runs in the bottom of the 7th for an 8-6 lead. Francisco Cordero couldn't hold the lead, blowing up to get just one out while allowing six hits and a walk. Bill Bray got the last two outs, too late. Cordero was the real goat of this game. Starter Johnny Cueto gave up six runs in 5 1/3 innings, on six hits and three walks. He struck out six. Jeremy Affeldt got the last two outs in the 6th, and Mike Lincoln and David Weathers each threw shutout innings in between.

Adam Dunn and Edwin Encarnacion had homers in the fourth. Encarnacion had three hits. Jeff Keppinger had two hits, including a triple. Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Javier Valentin and Ken Griffey had doubles.

Reds and Mets again tonight, with Bronson Arroyo and John Maine.
posted by Shawn at 8:23 AM

 
Jerry Hairston and his balky hamstring went on the disabled list. Can you believe that someone, Mark Sheldon of reds.com I think, listed Hairston as the first-half MVP? I mean, he's played well, but only in half-time. Anyway, Jolbert Cabrera was activated to take his place on the roster. Also, Bobby Livingston was activated and sent to AA.

The second half opens with a lineup of Bruce/Keppinger/Griffey/Phillips/Dunn/Encarnacion/Votto/Ross/Cueto. Root the Reds home!
posted by Shawn at 5:13 PM

 
The Reds and Mets face off beginning tonight. The New York team has set a rotation of Johan Santana, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Pedro Martinez. The Reds have announced their first two starters as Johnny Cueto (to face Santana tonight) and Bronson Arroyo (to face Maine Friday night) but are going with "TBD" for the last two games. This is mostly due to uncertainty about when to pitch All-Star Edinson Volquez. Volquez went an inning in Tuesday night's game, and the question is whether to bring him back for Saturday or Sunday. The other starter will be either Homer Bailey or Josh Fogg, with the one that doesn't start during the weekend drawing the Monday assignment.

Aaron Harang will hopefully get back in the mix next week. He is eligible to come off the DL on the 23rd, next Wednesday.
posted by Shawn at 11:52 AM

 
Cincinnati will host a series of games starting tomorrow (Thursday), beginning with a four-game series against the New York Mets. The Mets have awakened since the firing of Willie Randolph and appointing of Jerry Manuel manager. Thursday, Friday and Saturday are night games, followed by a Sunday afternoon affair. Then beginning Monday, San Diego comes to town for three. After a Thursday off, Colorado comes to town for a three-game weekend series. Good tickets still available! It's one of the longest homestands of the season.
posted by Shawn at 4:36 PM

 
You probably missed this in the Columbus Dispatch. I did, until Rob Neyer pointed to it from his blog. (Insider only) But in the Sunday paper, Scott Priestle put an article titled "Going Deeper" about the new stats, and particularly about teams hiring statistical analysts.

The money part for us Reds fans is this stuff about Adam Dunn:
"One veteran scout for a National League club said he studies statistics more than ever and more and more of his colleagues do the same. For instance, before coming to Cincinnati two weeks ago to follow the Reds, the scout looked up each pitcher's walk rate, strikeout rate, ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and opponents' batting average and each hitter's contact rate and walk rate.

"If you scout someone and totally dismiss the numbers, you're missing something," he said. "If you don't look at (Adam) Dunn's stats, you might think, 'This guy sucks. Get him out of here.' But he's a hitter. He gets a bad rap around here, but he's the only guy on that team who can change the game."

In many ways, the Reds' Dunn embodies the statistical evolution.

He does not fit the old ideal of contact hitting and defense, and his batting average (225 through Friday) is poor. But he is on pace to reach 40 home runs and 100 walks for a fifth straight season, and the statistical research of the past two decades has shown that the ability to get on base and to hit for power are the most important elements of a successful offense.

At the start of the week, Dunn led the Reds in home runs, slugging percentage and Equivalent Average (EqA) and was second in Win Shares and Value Over Replacement Player (VORP).

Meanwhile, the statistical research that led to the creation of EqA, Win Shares and VORP also uncovered a red flag above Dunn: Players whose value derived largely from walks and extra-base hits tended to decline faster than players with a wider range of abilities.

An athlete such as Cincinnati's Ken Griffey Jr. can add muscle, pull the ball more often and learn to draw more walks as he ages; Dunn cannot learn to swing the bat faster.

Even an organization as traditionally scout-centric as the Reds can find value in such information. Team officials might not be able to cite Dunn's EqA, and they might not know that baseball-reference.com lists Darryl Strawberry, Harmon Killebrew, Rocky Colavito and Tom Brunansky among his comparable hitters, but some in the front office have an eye on the stat sheet."

Interesting thoughts. The whole article is good, and you should check it out.
posted by Shawn at 12:12 PM

 
So, what should the Reds do?

Focus on next year. The team is three games over its Pythagorean record, meaning there has been some good luck recently. That could reverse at any time. The Reds are also seven games off the Wild Card lead, with four teams in the way. They have a 1.4% chance of making the postseason. It's time to build, although owner Bob Castellini may stand in the way of that. He needs to get out of the way. GM Walt Jocketty is not afraid to swing a deal, and has made some good ones, as well as some bad.

First off, sell high. You have to move guys who are doing well, but are veterans not likely to repeat their seasons. I'm looking at you, Jerry Hairston. A contender might see a use for him, and give up a player who could be of use to the Reds in the future.

You also want to deal off the oldest guys on the roster, the ones most likely to fall off the truck and crater. That would be the plus-35 brigade of Paul Bako, Ken Griffey, and David Weathers. Griffey likely has no trade value, but Weathers should, and Bako might to a team desperate for catching. The Reds should move Hairston (assuming he resumes health) and Weathers, and Bako if possible.

Dave Ross is the Reds' best catcher right now, but if he can bring a decent prospect from a catching-poor team I would trade him. Ross is 32, and catchers tend to run out of gas quickly. Yes, I think the Reds should trade Bako and Ross both if possible, and go with Ryan Hanigan as the starter and Javier Valentin as the backup. Hanigan is 27 and it's now or never for him, and Valentin might as well have some utility on the roster. As a third catcher and very occasional pinch-hitter, he has none.

At the same time, Corey Patterson has no value and should simply be sent back to AAA. The Reds sent him out before and should do so again. The poor guy has some talent, but can't hit .200 or even get on base 25% of the time. He plays a pretty good center field, but that's not a rare talent. I wouldn't release him, on the off chance he might help. Well, you are already paying the money, might as well take a shot. Chris Dickerson can do everything Patterson is doing, and more. At 26, he deserves the chance.

And again, Mike Lincoln should be traded. Lincoln isn't doing anything Josh Roenicke couldn't do if given the chance, and it's time to give the kid a shot. Maybe a contender will take a flier on Lincoln as a middle man. Couldn't hurt. There are also rumors that Jeremy Affeldt could be moved. I assume this is because he is a decent pitcher, left-handed, and only signed for this year. Might as well get something for him. Danny Herrera can take this spot.

Bronson Arroyo has been rumored in some deals, but he'll have to start pitching well before someone would pick him up. He's had a rough half-season. A 5.97 ERA is just not all that attractive. Three good starts, however, would put him into tradeable territory by the end of the month.

In the long term, the Reds need to do these things: sign Adam Dunn long-term, move Edwin Encarnacion off third base or to another team, and acquire a shortstop and center fielder. The 2009 edition of the Reds should have Votto and Phillips on the right side of the infield, and Jay Bruce in right field, as well as (hopefully) Dunn in left. Failing re-signing Dunn, the answer might be to put Encarnacion out there. However, I have no idea if (a) Encarnacion can play the outfield or (b) he will hit enough to be a reasonable option for LF. Right now, he's a slightly above-average offensive player, which doesn't play that well in left, but moving off third base might help his offense. Of course, being an outfielder might hurt his offense, so it could be a zero-gain move. However, Edwin's defense has not significantly improved, and is still hurting the team. Third base? Keppinger, for now. Or perhaps, for 2009.

Who is available for C, SS, and CF? Well, that's the tricky part. There are no really good free agents coming open for next season at those positions. The Reds don't have a lot going on in the minors, either. Will Chris Valaika be ready for 2009? I don't know. Maybe. Neither Dickerson nor Drew Stubbs looks ready to be a regular major league center fielder. Rob Mackowiak? Please. Although Mackowiak could help as a bench player.

There are no easy answers to these questions, one reason GM Walt Jocketty has to hit the trade market, and the sooner the better. What would it take to get CF Jeremy Reed from the Mariners? Probably not much. Reed hasn't hit well in the majors, but plays good defense and may just need a fresh start. I'd also like to get C Jeff Clement from the Mariners, but again I don't know what they would want.
posted by Shawn at 8:16 PM

 
The Reds enter the All-Star break in fourth place in the NL Central, sporting a 46-50 record, 11.5 games behind the Chicago Cubs. They are 6.5 games behind Milwaukee, which holds third place, and 1 game ahead of Pittsburgh, in fifth. Their record is the 9th-best in the 16-team NL.

The Reds are 12th in the league in scoring runs, and 12th in allowing them. Since they play home games in a hitters' park, this actually means the pitching/defense is a little ahead of the offense, or at least is doing better. On the other hand, the team is scoring a few more runs on the road, and allowing several more.

Attendance has been mediocre. The Reds are drawing more fans than only two other NL teams, Florida and Pittsburgh. However, 25,033 per game isn't too bad for a team that hasn't had a winning record in this decade.

The offense has been streaky, and unable to find a groove. Adam Dunn has been the best hitter, and he is batting just .228. He's got a lot of walks and homers, though, and leads the team in RBI. Jerry Hairston has been the next-best offensive player, batting .351, but has had injury problems. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, and Edwin Encarnacion have contributed. However, Ken Griffey has struggled and is batting just .235. Corey Patterson has been an offensive black hole. Paul Bako got off to a good start, but his bat has cratered: after a .310 average in April, he hit .186 in May, .151 in June, and .150 so far in July. Jeff Keppinger cooled off after a hot start. Jay Bruce broke in with a bang, then hit a slump. On the good side, Dave Ross has picked it up.

On the pitching side, Edinson Volquez has been terrific, Francisco Cordero and Jared Burton have steadied the bullpen, but others have been inconsistent. Aaron Harang started the year pitching in tough luck, then went sour. Bronson Arroyo has had trouble stringing good starts together. Johnny Cueto has shown signs of excellence, but has been as inconsistent as your average 22-year old. No one else has stepped up to claim a rotation spot. The bullpen has gotten good work at times out of Bill Bray, David Weathers, Mike Lincoln, and Jeremy Affeldt, and at other times not so much. Meanwhile, Gary Majewski is looking more and more like the second coming of Todd Coffey.

So: batting order holes, shaky defense (more on that later), a decent bullpen and one really good starting pitcher. What to do? More to come.
posted by Shawn at 4:06 PM

 
The Reds dropped their final game before the three-day All-Star holiday, getting a 2-0 lead but failing to score any more runs as the Brewers came back for a victory. C.C. Sabathia went the distance for the win.

Homer Bailey was solid in his return to Cincinnati. The youngster went 5 2/3 innings, giving up five hits and getting four strikeouts while walking nobody. He was charged with two runs. Bill Bray came in but gave up a hit and a walk without getting any outs, and Mike Lincoln relieved him, getting four outs. David Weathers threw a shutout 8th, but came out for the 9th and gave up a single to Bill Hall, made an error on a bunt by Mike Cameron, then intentionally walked Jason Kendall to bring up the pitchers' spot as closer Francisco Cordero came in with the bases loaded and nobody out. Craig Counsell pinch-hit a sacrifice fly, ending the game.

Both the Reds' runs scored on sacrifice flies, one by Dave Ross to score Edwin Encarnacion, and one by Adam Dunn plating Jay Bruce. The Reds used a lineup with just two lefty hitters in it, Dunn and Corey Patterson. Ken Griffey was on the bench, as was Paul Bako. Jerry Hairston started in right field and Andy Phillips at first base. To get another righty in there, switch-hitter Javier Valentin would have had to start. However, Bruce entered the game after Hairston suffered a hamstring strain, Votto entered on a switch, Bako entered late when Cordero was inserted, and Griffey pinch-hit, even though Sabathia went the whole game. He got his second NL victory.

No more games until Thursday, so we will spend some time this week evaluating the team so far.
posted by Shawn at 4:57 PM

 
If the Reds were in the NL West, they would be in second place, 1.5 games behind Arizona. Then, we'd all be excited about the pennant race.
posted by Shawn at 9:10 AM

 
The Reds won their third game in a row Saturday night in Milwaukee. Adam Dunn homered twice and Edinson Volquez pitched seven strong innings to lead the way to victory.

Volquez allowed six hits, two walks, and two runs (one earned) while striking out ten. David Weathers and Jeremy Affeldt each pitched a shutout inning for the 8-2 victory. Jerry Hairston had four of the Reds' ten hits, including two doubles. He also got a retroactive triple on a ball he hit Friday night that had been charged as an error. Dunn's three-run first inning homer started the scoring as well as providing the margin of victory, and a 9th inning homer followed by one from Edwin Encarnacion provided the icing on the cake. Jay Bruce also provided a two--run single in the 9th to bring in Hairston and Corey Patterson, while Ken Griffey singled in Hairston in the 8th.

The 46-49 Reds will play one more game before All-Star time, as this afternoon Homer Bailey will start against new Brewer, but no stranger to the Reds from his time with the Indians, C.C. Sabathia.
posted by Shawn at 9:02 AM

 
Cincinnati beat Milwaukee 6-5 thanks partly to some Brewer miscues, and gained their second straight victory. Josh Fogg pitched well through five though the Brewers broke through with a four-run sixth inning.

Fogg went 5 1/3 innings and gave up just one hit, a home run. He walked two and allowed three runs. Fogg was removed in the sixth after hitting a batter, walking one, and striking one out, Bill Bray came in and got a strikeout and gave up a double, then Gary Majewski allowed a double and a single but singler Mike Cameron was thrown out at second to save further damage. The bullpen got things under control after that, with Mike Lincoln, David Weathers, and Francisco Cordero pitching shutout innings.

Edwin Encarnacion had three of the Reds' seven hits, including two doubles. Jay Bruce also doubled. The Reds got three walks but benefitted from three errors. Dave Ross had a single and walked twice. Cincinnati scored on a groundout twice, on a sacrifice fly, on a single, and on an error. It was a day for "littleball."

Edinson Volquez and Seth McClung pitch tonight.
posted by Shawn at 8:59 AM

 
The Reds have headed to Milwaukee to play their final series before the All-Star break. This brewery town is excited about being in a pennant race, and making a big trade for a big-time pitcher, C.C. Sabathia.

Cincinnati enters this series 44-49, and still in fourth place by percentage points over the Pirates, with the Astros in the cellar. Tonight, Josh Fogg gets the start against rookie Manny Parra, who has done well this season and posted an 8-2 record, a big reason for Milwaukee's success. Tomorrow night, Edinson Volquez will oppose Seth McClung, and Sunday afternoon in the finale Homer Bailey will get the call against Sabathia. Bailey is being recalled to take the roster spot of Aaron Harang, who is going on the disabled list.
posted by Shawn at 8:16 AM

 
Aaron Harang's MRI revealed no problems, but he will not pick up a baseball for a week. GM Walt Jocketty said Harang will go onto the 15-day disabled list. With the All-Star break, with luck he may miss just two starts.
posted by Shawn at 8:17 PM

 
The Reds' bats woke up to the tune of a 12-7 victory over the Cubs. Just another day game in Wrigley Field.

The Cubs scored first, in the first inning, but Edwin Encarnacion homered in the second to tie the game. The Cubs got two more in the bottom of the inning. But the Reds scored three in the third (RBI double by Ken Griffey to bring in Jerry Hairston, followed by a homer from Brandon Phillips) and four more in the fourth (three-run homer by Griffey, sacrifice fly by Encarnacion) to take a 7-3 lead. The Cubs got two back in the fourth to make it 7-5, but the Reds kept at it and hit six homers in the game. Dave Ross had two roundtrippers, and Adam Dunn and Joey Votto each had one.

Every Reds starter had at least one hit. Votto, Ross, and Jeff Keppinger had three each, while Griffey, Phillips, and Encarnacion had two apiece. It was an 18-hit onslaught against five Cubs pitchers.

Bronson Arroyo went five innings and gave up five runs, but got the win. Bill Bray gave up two unearned runs in one inning, then Mike Lincoln, Jared Burton, and Francisco Cordero each threw a shutout frame.

The Reds now will move on to Milwaukee.
posted by Shawn at 5:41 PM

 
Adam Dunn hit a second-inning homer, but that was the only hit Cincinnati got in eight innings against Carlos Zambrano. The Cubs won 5-1.

The Reds' other hit was a single in the 9th by Jay Bruce. There were also two walks to load the bases, giving Brandon Phillips a chance to tie the game, but Kerry Wood came in to get him to foul out.

Johnny Cueto gave up one run in the second, and one in the fifth, but the sixth was bad. Three Cubs runs crossed the plate. Cueto was charged with all of them, allowing five runs, four of them earned, in 6 1/3 innings. David Weathers pitched the last 1 1/3.

The final game of the series is this afternoon, with Bronson Arroyo and Ted Lilly pitching.
posted by Shawn at 8:20 AM

 
Aaron Harang was sent back to Cincinnati to be examined when he awoke early this morning with pain and stiffness. Apparently this was beyond the normal pain and stiffness after a start. Harang will also have an MRI. Speculation has been rife that something is physically wrong with Harang during his long slump.

The Reds now have to win their last five games before the All-Star break to reach .500 by that time.
posted by Shawn at 6:50 PM

 
The Reds lost to the Cubs 7-3 on Tuesday night, and it wasn't even that close. Aaron Harang continued his poor pitching since that four-inning relief appearance.

Harang walked seven in 4 1/3 innings, and kept getting nickel-and-dimed, because he kept putting baserunners on base. He also gave up five hits, and struck out six. He allowed two home runs. Jeremy Affeldt gave up one unearned run in 1 2/3 innings, and Gary Majewski finished the mop-up with two shutout innings.

Jerry Hairston was hitless but was robbed three times on plays with varying degrees of difficulty. The Reds put up five hits and six walks, as it was a poor control day. Jeff Keppinger had two of the hits, and Javier Valentin had the only extra-base hit, a pinch-hit double.

Johnny Cueto and Carlos Zambrano pitch tonight.
posted by Shawn at 8:15 AM

 
The Reds have a 43-47 record. A 5-1 record on this road trip would put them at .500 for the All-Star break. Not likely, but weird things happen sometimes. Tonight, Aaron Harang and the oddly effective Ryan Dempster will start. Tomorrow night, it's Johnny Cueto and Carlos Zambrano. Thursday is an afternoon game, with Bronson Arroyo and Ted Lilly scheduled to pitch. It's a tough road, but they will travel it.
posted by Shawn at 4:45 PM

 
John Fay lists the Reds most likely to be traded as David Weathers, Jeremy Affeldt, and Dave Ross. That's a decent list, to which I would like to add Mike Lincoln, Ryan Freel, and Jerry Hairston. Even Paul Bako, although I doubt he has value. None of those guys will bring much in trade, but maybe a low-level prospect or two. Fay raises and interesting point, which is that owner Robert Castellini will veto a trade if he thinks it hurts the team's chances of winning now, this season. That's a little silly, and none of these guys would be especially hard to replace, but it shows the misguided mindset of the team.

A second-division team should be about improving for the future. You don't improve for the future by playing guys in their thirties trying to win a couple more games now, you do it by moving those guys to pick up a prospect or two, and giving your own minor leaguers a chance to show what they can do. Can Chris Dickerson be a major league bench player? Surely he can't be worse than Corey Patterson. Is Josh Roenicke ready to play a middle relief role? We won't find out if he doesn't get a shot. Can Danny Herrera pitch in the majors? Let's see. Now.

Get rid of the old spare parts, and try out some different ones that are younger and have more upside. Ken Griffey will be gone after this season, and Adam Dunn may be as well. The Reds need to pick up a shortstop, a center fielder, and a catcher. The young pitching looks promising, and Joey Votto and Jay Bruce have slotted right into the lineup. If the Reds make the same mistake as last year, when they held on to Scott Hatteberg, Mike Stanton, and Weathers too long, it will hurt the team in the long run. If this team is to have a chance to win in 2009 or 2010, it must make moves now.
posted by Shawn at 9:00 PM

 
The Reds lead their second-division companions, Pittsburgh and Houston, by 1.5 games in the NL Central and hold down fourth place after their successful homestand. Word from scouts is that the Reds look "more professional" this year under Dusty Baker, but the results have not been significantly improved. Perhaps some benefit will accrue in the second half.

If Baker can connect with Adam Dunn, then the team will take off.
posted by Shawn at 9:55 AM

 
The Reds have Monday off for a travel day, then hit the road for two intradivisional series before the All-Star Break. Tuesday begins three games with the Cubs, and the weekend will bring a three-game set with Milwaukee. A tough week, but some ground can be made up here with a solid trip. Cincinnati secured fourth place with today's win, and can strengthen their position with a .500 or better trip.
posted by Shawn at 9:04 PM

 
Cincinnati beat the Nationals 6-5 today to complete a four-game sweep. Edinson Volquez got the win, his 11th of the season.

Volquez got credit for a quality start in spite of an ugly third inning, when all three Washington runs scored. He gave up five hits and three walks, striking out three. Bill Bray and Jared Burton each threw a shutout inning of relief, then Francisco Cordero came on for the 9th with a 6-3 lead. He got the save, but gave up three hits and two (unearned) runs in walking a tightrope. At least Reds pitchers kept the ball in the park.

Adam Dunn hit a three-run homer in the fourth that brought home Ken Griffey and Brandon Phillips and tied the score. Yep, another meaningless Dunn homer, uh huh. Sure it was. The Reds tallied two more in the fifth on an RBI double by Dave Ross and an RBI groundout by Jerry Hairston, plating Joey Votto and Ross respectively, and one more in the 8th on a single by Hairston bringing in Votto. Good they got that last run, because it turned out they needed it. The six runs were equal to the number the Reds had scored the previous two games, both wins as it happened.

Hairston and Phillips had two hits each, including a double for Phillips. The other extra-base hits were Ross' double and Dunn's homer, his 22nd of the season.

Congratulations to Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati's lone all-star representative. Ken Griffey Jr. had been running second in outfield balloting, but fell off the final pace.
posted by Shawn at 8:28 PM

 
The Reds beat the Nationals 3-2, although it took them into the bottom of the 9th to do it. Perseverance was the key, that and a good start by Josh Fogg.

Fogg went six innings and gave up one run to the admittedly weak Nats lineup, allowing six hits and a walk with one strikeout. David Weathers threw a shutout 7th and Mike Lincoln a scoreless 8th, but Francisco Cordero gave up a run in the 9th, blowing the save. He vultured the win, though.

The Reds got 13 hits but only one was for extra bases, Edwin Encarnacion's double. Jerry Hairston had three hits, while Ken Griffey, Brandon Phillips, and Encarnacion had two each. Paul Bako had an RBI single, while Phillips drove in two runs with a sacrifice fly and the single that provided the winner.

The Reds win combined with a Pirates loss moves the Cincinnatians into fourth place, just ahead of the Buccos and Astros. The team is now five games under .500.

Edinson Volquez and Collin Balester are scheduled to start tomorrow afternoon's game, as the Reds go for a sweep.
posted by Shawn at 10:42 PM

 
The Reds win yesterday combined with Houston's loss last night propels the Reds out of last place. The Pirates' loss leaves the Reds just a half-game out of fourth. This could still happen this weekend! Let's hope Josh Fogg continues his success from his rehab assignment in his start tonight.
posted by Shawn at 9:19 AM

 
Norris Hopper is going on the disabled list and will have surgery, of the Tommy John type. The pain is bothering him to the point where he can't swing the bat, just bunt or pinch-run. His roster spot will go to Josh Fogg, who will also start tomorrow, bumping Aaron Harang who is having some soreness. Fogg will face Tim Redding in tomorrow night's game.

There is a rumor making the rounds that the Phillies are offering Shane Victorino for Bronson Arroyo. I doubt that to be the case, but I'd do it in a minute. Victorino is a true center fielder. It would make for a crowded outfield for now. There are also rumors that the Marlins, seeking a catcher, are looking at Dave Ross. He's the Reds' best catcher, but if one of the Marlins' many prospects could be had for him I'd make the swap.
posted by Shawn at 5:55 PM

 
On a special July 4 holiday game, the Reds beat the Nationals 3-0. Bronson Arroyo came up with a good start, the bullpen did the job, and Arroyo combined with Ken Griffey to provide the offense.

Jay Bruce doubled with one out in the bottom of the first, and Ken Griffey Jr. followed with his 604th career homer for a 2-0 lead. That was all the Reds really needed, but with two out in the 4th Paul Bako walked and Arroyo hit a line drive to left field that Elijah Dukes ran over and drew a bead on...and missed completely. It could have been a triple, but instead Dukes was charged with an error. Bako scored, and that was the offense.

It wasn't much, but it was enough. The Reds had a total of seven hits, two by Adam Dunn, and five walks, two by Griffey, whom the Nats didn't seem to want to pitch to after his homer.

Arroyo threw six shutout innings, giving up five hits and three walks with three strikeouts. David Weathers, Jared Burton, and Francisco Cordero each threw a shutout inning of relief.
posted by Shawn at 5:49 PM

 
Reader "tHE dEG" tried to post this as a comment, but it got too long and was truncated. So, I am running the post in its entirety here. I'll comment in a later post or two.

"

posted by Shawn at 1:58 AM

 
Cincinnati beat Washington 5-3 in the opener of their four-game series. Johnny Cueto went eight innings, and Brandon Phillips was the hitting hero with a two-run single that broke a tie score and brought in the winning runs.

Cueto had a quality start, giving up three runs in seven innings on seven hits and a walk, with eight strikeouts. He wasn't perfect, but he was pretty good. Jared Burton got into immediate trouble in the 8th, giving up a ground-rule double and a walk, but then got a double play and a flyout to smooth things over. Francisco Cordero got the save with a 1-2-3 9th.

Phillips had three hits and three RBI. Jerry Hairston had two hits, Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion one each to account for the Reds' seven. They also drew four walks. All seven hits were singles, so timely hitting was present tonight to get five runs out of that.

Bronson Arroyo and Jason Bergmann tomorrow afternoon.
posted by Shawn at 9:42 PM

 
How many times do you see this? Jeff Keppinger intentionally walked to pitch to Ken Griffey Jr.

And what's more, it worked.

Seventh inning. Corey Patterson pinch-hits, reaches on a two-base error. Jerry Hairston singles, moves to second on the throw to the plate to discourage Patterson from scoring. Runners at second and third, one out, Keppinger followed by Griffey. Nats manager Manny Acta elects to pass Keppinger, and bring in a lefty to pitch to Junior.

Huh? Pitch to the 600 home run guy?

Points: both were 0-for-3 to that point. Keppinger was hitting .308, Griffey .238. And, it sets up the double play. I can see it.

It also worked. Griffey flied out, too shallow to bring in Patterson. That leaves them loaded with two out and a righty is brought in to face Phillips.

Then Phillips singles home two runs and the Reds take the lead 5-3. So, it didn't work out in the long run. But in the short run, it did.
posted by Shawn at 9:15 PM

 
"Derf" magazine appears to be trying to become "The Onion" for Cincinnati. They have a new article up on Marty Brennaman here.
posted by Shawn at 7:59 PM

 
The Reds re-claimed Andy Phillips off the waiver wire today. Phillips had earlier been designated for assignment by the Reds and claimed off waivers by the Mets. That process was reversed today. At the same time, Daryl Thompson was demoted after his rough start last night. Thompson would have next been scheduled to start Monday, which is an off day, so the Reds will have until next Saturday to determine a pitcher for that slot. Bets on Josh Fogg are likely to pay off.
posted by Shawn at 6:48 PM

 
The Reds will host a four-game series with the Nationals this holiday weekend. Wouldn't it make more sense to play in D.C. this weekend? Maybe not. Anyway, Thursday and Saturday are night games, while Friday and Sunday are day games.

Tonight (Thursday) Johnny Cueto and John Lannan will face off. Lannan has a good ERA, but a lousy record. The Nats have a pretty weak offense, so I would guess a lack of support is to blame. Friday afternoon Bronson Arroyo and Jason Bergmann will pitch. Saturday night, Aaron Harang and Tim Redding will take the mound, then Sunday it will be Edinson Volquez and Collin Balester (whose name sounds like a British talk-show host) in the afternoon tilt. Balester will be making his second major league start. Hey, the holiday is a great time to head to a game! For all the frustration, the Reds are 39-47 this season, and there's lots of games left to play. Cincinnati is on pace to better last year's record, and if they can bring up their game (and they should, they have not been playing to potential) the Reds can still get to .500.
posted by Shawn at 12:13 PM

 
Alex Gonzalez will have surgery on his non-healing knee. He is still signed for next year. The Reds hinted they have insurance on his contract. Good thing, because that three-year deal was a monumental waste of money.
posted by Shawn at 9:39 AM

 
Jay Bruce tried to win the game all by himself, but it was not to be. Even two home runs by the impressive rookie couldn't rescue this game from the Pirates. Daryl Thompson got hammered.

Bruce homered to lead off the bottom of the first, and also hit a three-run homer in the second. Adam Dunn led off the second with a homer. Those, however, were the only five runs the Reds scored, getting just seven hits. Once John Van Benschoten came out of the game, the Reds' bats were mostly silent.

Meantime, the Pirates were cuffing around Thompson, who gave up seven runs in 4 1/3 innings and should go back to Louisville so Josh Fogg can be activated and try to induce a trade offer. Jeremy Affeldt, Gary Majewski, and Bill Bray were a mixed bag in relief.

After dropping two of three to the Pirates, the Reds will now prepare for four games against the Nationals. Perhaps things will go better over the holiday weekend.
posted by Shawn at 10:13 PM

 
Following up the previous post, David Weathers is reportedly being scouted by other teams, and Ryan Freel has a full hamstring tear, not a partial one, so this could take some time.
posted by Shawn at 9:27 AM

 
Some game reports are tougher to write than others. Last night's was a struggle. Not only was the game disappointing, but I had talked myself into thinking this homestand was the turning point of the season, and the key to .500. Right now, it's not looking good.

About this time last year, I was advocating that the Reds deal off some of their veterans, excess baggage on a losing team, and bring up some kids in their place. Among those I said should go were Scott Hatteberg, David Weathers, Mike Stanton, and Ryan Freel. I stand by that now, and while people try to resurrect Wayne Krivsky's reputation based on the (two games of partial) success of Daryl Thompson to justify The Trade, I think Krivsky's failure to make a deal last year for even a marginal prospect or two was his greatest failure.

Well, it's that time again. We have reached July, the Reds are in last place, and the trading deadline (at least, the non-waiver trading deadline) looms at the end of the month. Once again, the Reds have some veterans who are dead weight on a last-place team's roster, but who might contribute to a contender, and bring in a minor prospect at best and salary relief at worst. These are guys who have no place on the roster of a team that must look to next year. Otherwise, you get stuck paying guys like the Reds are currently paying Hatteberg and Stanton not to play for anyone.

David Weathers remains on the roster, and in spite of the fact that his value has dropped like a rock the Reds should still deal him. Weathers, 38, is by all accounts a good guy and takes the ball whenever the manager calls on him. That will have value to someone, who will look at his veteranness and experience in close games and decide that this guy can help out in a pennant stretch. That 4.13 ERA will look good to someone.

Mike Lincoln is 33, had no business making the roster to begin with, and should be dealt while he has some measurable value. He's really just a space filler, but someone might take him on as a mop-up man. His 4.31 ERA certainly isn't horrible. Danny Herrera and Josh Roenicke can fill these two spots.

Bronson Arroyo, 31, is a good candidate to be traded if he can string together a few good starts. Teams that have shown interest, like the Phillies, are more likely to bite if Arroyo can pitch effectively for a stretch. The Phillies are the team that took Kyle Lohse last year, so they may go back to the well.

Although they won't, the team should also trade closer Francisco Cordero. Cordero is frustratingly sloppy in his pitching, allowing baserunners left and right and escaping by the skin of his teeth. This will only get worse as the 33-year old ages. The Reds would be better off now with Jared Burton pitching the 9th and Bill Bray the 8th, or vice-versa for that matter. Breaking Roenicke in for the late innings is something that could also start now. Again, after just making that big investment, the Reds will not trade Cordero, even though they should.

Trade Josh Fogg and Gary Majewski? Sure, but they'll have to have some success first. That could take awhile.

The Reds (read: Krivsky) blew a chance last year to deal Hatteberg when he would have had value to a contender. A veteran hitter for spot duty at first base and DH would have helped somebody. There are fewer guys in that role this season, but there are some.

Ryan Freel should again be on the block. He's on the disabled list, so he would likely have to come back and show he can run first, but the 32-year old Freel has reportedly drawn interest. Freel, at his age and with his legs his game, is going to go downhill quickly and should be traded ASAP. The Reds have ridden this horse for all they can get out of it, and it is time to cut bait.

Jerry Hairston also should go. Sure, I know that he is the team's "sparkplug" and nobody else can do what he can do. He is also 32, and has a career average of .257. The phrase "sell high" applies here. When the Reds made the Joe Morgan trade after the 1971 season, which was a debacle after the pennant of 1970, they traded Lee May, the one guy who had actually improved in 1971. The fans howled, but Bob Howsam was following that adage: sell high. He was also getting rid of the team's worst defensive player. Two birds with one stone, as they say. May provided power to Houston, and Morgan provided pennants to Cincinnati. Hairston will never help a winning team in the Queen City, but a contender might give up something to see if he can be their sparkplug down the stretch. Trade him now, during his career year.

Javier Valentin, Corey Patterson, and Paul Bako should all be dealt as well, but would have little or no value. Bako might bring something to someone looking for a veteran backup down the stretch. Patterson would have to play well for a stretch, which means the team might have to make the sacrifice of playing him to see if he can get hot as he was the first week of the season. I'm not optimistic, but it could happen.

So, my short note to Walt Jocketty: make deals for David Weathers, Mike Lincoln, Ryan Freel, and Jerry Hairston. Explore trades for Bronson Arroyo and Paul Bako. And above all, don't trust baseball players over 30.
posted by Shawn at 8:54 AM

 
It was a back-and-forth game, and at the end the Reds didn't have enough forth. The Pirates won in 11 innings, 6-5.

The game began with Zach Duke and Edinson Volquez trading zeroes. The Pirates got one run in the 4th, then two in the 6th as a shaky Volquez needed a bullpen rescue. The Reds got a run back in the bottom of the 6th, then tied it in the 8th on a two-run homer by Brandon Phillips. That would eventually send the game into extra innings. Both teams got one run in the 10th, but the Pirates got two in the 11th and the Reds could only answer with one.

Volquez threw 96 pitches in going 5 1/3 innings, and is starting to struggle. He gave up three runs on seven hits and three walks with three strikeouts. Mike Lincoln got five outs, Bill Bray and Francisco Cordero three each. But, Jared Burton gave up one run in the 10th, and David Weathers two in his 2/3 of the 11th. Jeremy Affeldt got the last out.

Phillips had three hits, while Jerry Hairston, Ken Griffey, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce had two each. Votto, Griffey, Dave Ross and Adam Dunn had doubles. It just wasn't quite enough.

Daryl Thompson and John Van Benschoten go tomorrow.
posted by Shawn at 11:21 PM

 
The Reds' come-from-behind win last night (yay, Junior!) propels them ahead of the Pirates and into fifth place by percentage point, although by games the teams are tied. The Reds have won one more and lost one more game than the Pirates. They have the winning percentage edge .464 to .463. At least until tonight. The Astros beat the Dodgers, so no help there. If the Reds sweep the Pirates and the Dodgers win the next two with the Astros, that puts the Reds in fourth.
posted by Shawn at 8:57 AM

 
Ken Griffey crashed a two-run homer in the bottom of the 9th to power the Reds to a victory over the Pirates in the opener of their series. It was Griffey's first at-bat of the game after entering on defense in the top of the inning. Jerry Hairston had earlier homered, and Jay Bruce drove in a run with a groundout.

Aaron Harang got a quality start and a no-decision. Harang went seven innings and gave up three runs on seven hits and one walk with eight strikeouts. Jared Burton and Francisco Cordero each threw a shutout inning of relief. Cordero got the win.

Hairston and Brandon Phillips each had two hits. Hairston's other hit was a double.

Zach Duke and Edinson Volquez tomorrow.
posted by Shawn at 9:50 PM

 
Note to those who thought Cincinnati was crazy not to trade a young pitcher (in particular, Johnny Cueto) to get Joe Blanton: Blanton is 3-11 with a 4.97 ERA for an A's team that is 44-37.

Want to bet on what he'd be doing in Cincinnati? My guess is, not as good as Cueto.
posted by Shawn at 9:23 PM

 
Marty Brennaman: "Adam Dunn is not a run producer."

Cincinnati Reds leader in RBI, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007: Adam Dunn.

Or perhaps Marty has a different definition?
posted by Shawn at 9:09 PM

 
The Reds begin a three-game series with the Pirates tonight that represents a good chance to climb out of the cellar: two wins will put the Reds atop the Pirates in the standings, and a little help from the Dodgers in beating the Astros would give an extra boost. Hey, next week the Reds could be a fourth-place team.

There's work to be done first. Tonight's game features starters Aaron Harang and Paul Maholm, two guys with nearly identical ERAs. Maholm's is 0.10 lower. Maholm also has a 5-5 record to Harang's 3-10, but that is mostly an accident of run support.

Tuesday will feature Edinson Volquez and Zach Duke, as Volquez tries to recover from his first bad start of the season. We'll see how the kid bounces back.

Wednesday will match Daryl Thompson, the new kid who is making The Trade look good, against a Pirate starter to be determined. John Van Benschoten is currently leading the betting, but apparently the decision has not been finalized.

This would be a good time for the Reds to go on a streak, especially since a bunch of lefties should keep Corey Patterson out of the lineup. A return of Ryan Freel would also help.
posted by Shawn at 3:06 PM

 
The Reds signed Rob Mackowiak, best known in Cincinnati as a long-time Pirate, and sent him to Louisville to help out the depth there. Mackowiak, you may remember, is a lefty hitter who plays a variety of positions, none of them terribly well but mostly passably. He has a bit of power but hits for mediocre averages and rarely walks, so his major league utility is minimal. Good for the Bats, though.
posted by Shawn at 10:10 PM

 
The Reds beat the Indians today 9-5 in a game that was closer than it had a right to be. Bronson Arroyo recovered to post a solid start and got his fifth win.

The game was scoreless until the fifth (because Adam Dunn was thrown out at the plate in the second) when the Reds tallied five runs. After Norris Hopper of the incredibly deepening slump grounded out, Dave Ross singled, Jerry Hairston doubled, a wild pitch brought Ross home, Jeff Keppinger doubled to score Hairston, Ken Griffey flied out, Brandon Phillips singled home Keppinger, and Edwin Encarnacion capped things with a two-run homer. It was a big rally.

Arroyo pitched five shutout innings but allowed two runs in the sixth. In the 7th, Adam Dunn hit a three-run homer to rebuild the lead. The Reds got another later when Encarnacion singled home Phillips.

The bullpen struggled a bit to the point of letting the Indians think they had a chance. Arroyo gave up two runs in six innings, then Mike Lincoln loaded the bases in the 7th and was pulled with two out. Gary Majewski got the last out when Phillips made a terrific play, but gave up two hits and a run in the 8th. Jeremy Affeldt pitched the ninth and gave up two more runs. But it worked out.

The Reds now return home to play three with Pittsburgh and four with Washington. A good run at home against those mediocre teams could boost the Cincinnati record quite a bit.
posted by Shawn at 4:14 PM

 
With one out in the first, Adam Dunn homered to get the Reds on the board with the lead, and that was the signal that things would go Cincinnati's way tonight. Johnny Cueto turned in a strong start to make it happen.

Cueto went 6 1/3 shutout innings, giving up five hits and three walks with two strikeouts. He was lifted with a runner on in the 7th for Bill Bray, who gave up a hit and was pulled for David Weathers. Weathers got two outs to end the inning. Jared Burton pitched a shutout 8th, Francisco Cordero a shutout 9th.

Joey Votto and Jay Bruce had two hits each, Votto, Paul Bako, and Jeff Keppinger had doubles. The Reds tallied three in the fourth and one more in the 6th. Dunn also walked twice.

Ken Griffey's 0-for-4 dropped his average to .235. Corey Patterson's dropped his to .189.

Tomorrow afternoon, Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Laffrey go at it.
posted by Shawn at 9:43 PM

 
It's the exact halfway point of the season: the Reds have played 81 of their 162 games. The team's record is 36-45. That's five games ahead of last year, but the team has had a string of reaching the halfway point of even-numbered years with a winning record, so it's a bit of a disappointment. At this pace, the team would finish 72-90.

Also at this pace, Adam Dunn would have 36 HR, Brandon Phillips 90 RBI, and Phillips 28 steals. Phillips would also score 88 runs. Those would be team highs. It really says that the team is not scoring runs. Phillips is on pace for 26 HR, Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion 24. Dunn would have 88 RBI, Votto 76.

Edinson Volquez would win 20 games at this pace, and record 220 strikeouts. Aaron Harang would lose 20. Francisco Cordero would have 30 saves. Doubling records gives up Volquez at 20-6, Harang 6-20, Bronson Arroyo 8-14, and Johnny Cueto 10-16.

Of course, rarely do players do exactly in the second half what they did in the first. It just gives some perspective. To reach .500, the team must go 45-36 in the second half. That's a big turnaround, but it is possible.
posted by Shawn at 11:53 AM

 
The Reds fell to the Indians by a 6-0 score, as C.C. Sabathia continued his hot pitching. Cincinnati could summon little offense (as usual) against Sabathia or the bullpen.

The Reds had just five hits, all singles, and two walks. Jeff Keppinger had two of the singles. Daryl Thompson started and was doing well through four innings, then gave up a homer to Grady Sizemore in the 5th. In the 6th, the wheels fell off. Thompson had trouble getting an out in the sixth, and in fact didn't get one, then Bill Bray got a strikeout but also allowed a walk, then Gary Majewski gave up two hits while getting two outs. It was well over by then. David Weathers and Jeremy Affeldt each threw a shutout inning to finish, but the way Sabathia was pitching it was for nought.

Johnny Cueto and Paul Byrd, both pitchers with ERAs in the fives, got tonight.
posted by Shawn at 11:48 AM

 
Toronto beat Cincinnati 7-1 to take two of three in this weekday series. The Reds got just four hits, doubles by Adam Dunn and Corey Patterson and singles by Dunn and Jerry Hairston.

Edinson Volquez had his worst outing of the season, swelling his ERA all the way to 2.08. He allowed seven runs (five earned) in 4 1/3 innings. Mike Lincoln pitched 2 2/3 shutout innings, and Jeremy Affeldt one.

The Reds will head to Cleveland to conclude the road trip. Friday night, Daryl Thompson will make his second career start, facing C.C. Sabathia.
posted by Shawn at 9:39 PM

 
Jerry Hairston was reactivated, and is in the lineup at shortstop and batting leadoff. John Fay is probably beside himself. Paul Janish was sent out. It leaves the Reds without a true major-league level defensive shortstop, but Janish was clearly overmatched.

Also, Andy Phillips was claimed on waiver by the Mets, so he is gone. Not a great loss, although he was handy.

Keppinger is playing third, batting sixth. Dunn-Phillips-Griffey are 2-3-4 again.
posted by Shawn at 4:47 PM

 
Enquirer scribe John Fay keeps pining for the return of Jerry Hairston Jr. to the lineup, pointing out how the team was 14-11 with him leading off, and he hit .325 or whatever it was.

Take a breath, John.

Hairston is a well-below average shortstop on defense, and his current .336 average is unsustainable. He is a .257 career hitter, even with this year's included, and his previous career high is .303 in 86 games in 2004. In the years after that, he hit .261, .206, and .189, which is why he was available as a free agent.

Chances are Hairston ends up much closer to that .257 by the end of the season, which means hitting .220-.230 the rest of the way. It's kind of like expecting Paul Bako to keep hitting all season like he did in April. Jerry Hairston doesn't turn into Rickey Henderson overnight. It may end up a career year, but the only year of his career so far that Hairston posted a 100 or better OPS+ was the aforementioned 2004.

John gets a little overexcited about mediocre players sometimes. It's a common writer thing.
posted by Shawn at 11:17 AM

 
The Reds rebounded from a terrible Tuesday to beat the Blue Jays 6-5 on Wednesday, although it wasn't as easy as it looked like it might be. The Reds put five runs on the board in the first three innings, but the Jays put up four in the bottom of the third and tied it later, and the game went into the 10th.

Ken Griffey Jr. homered in the first, driving home Brandon Phillips, to get the scoring started. The three-run rally in the second featured RBI singles by Adam Dunn and Phillips. Then, though, Aaron Harang gave up two two-run homers to the Jays, and it was 5-4. It remained so into the 6th, when Harang was charged with another run but had help in giving it up. Things looked serious in the seventh, when David Weathers gave up three singles to start the inning, but then got a pitcher-to-home-to-first double play to quiet the threat. Things remained quiet until the 10th, when Jay Bruce's sacrifice fly plated Norris Hopper.

Ten different Reds had one hit each. Griffey's homer and doubles by Bruce and Joey Votto counted for extra bases. Harang was charged with five runs in 5 2/3 innings, Bill Bray walked the only batter he faced, and Weathers courted danger but wasn't charged with a run in 1 1/3 innings. Jared Burton threw two shutout innings and Francisco Cordero one.

Edinson Volquez and Jesse Litsch tomorrow night.
posted by Shawn at 10:50 PM

 
OK, this is just crazy. We thought Dusty Baker was nutty to put Javier Valentin at 3B for an inning a couple of nights ago. Tonight, Valentin started at third. No, really!

Dunn is hitting second again, with Phillips third and Griffey cleanup. Something seems to be working, because the Reds are up 5-0 in the third inning.
posted by Shawn at 7:56 PM

 
Well, that was ugly. Bronson Arroyo was treated like a batting practice pitcher by the Blue Jays, and the game was effectively over after the first inning. The Jays scored six in the first and followed with five in the second, then coasted to a 14-1 victory.

Arroyo got just three outs and gave up eleven hits, including three homers, plus one walk. Guy was slapped around like a red-headed stepchild, as the saying goes. After a poor April, Arroyo had looked better in May, but June has been disastrous once again. He is pitching like a sore-armed pitcher.

Gary Majewski tossed three mop-up innings, and Jeremy Affeldt followed with two. David Weathers and Bill Bray followed with an inning each. Only Bray did not allow a run, not that it mattered by then.

Edwi