Sunday, October 12, 2008
China's Market-based Agriculture?
Interesting in at least two senses: 1) the move towards reforming one of the oldest central pieces of the Chinese communist state-planned economy; and 2) an apparent drive towards industrialized agriculture, which, in the case of the US has been ravaging to small rural communities and ultimately also food prices.
The new policy, which is being discussed this weekend by Communist Party leaders and could be announced within days, would be the biggest economic reform in many years and would mark another significant departure from the system of collective ownership and state control that China built after the 1949 revolution.
Fannie, Freddie, and Fear of the "Arab"
The McCain campaign, as we all know now (including members of the migration of Independents to the Obama vote), has been a nasty piece of work. It is a fear-mongering, divisive, and rather stupid campaign bereft of a consistent and coherent set of ideas. Its last card was also always its first: that John McCain is a man of upstanding character and that that's a good enough reason to vote for him. That's all over now. He has shown himself to be a petty, small, and not terribly bright man (and I even propose this - for those of you dismayed by the lack of intelligence of George Bush, consider that McCain might not even achieve Bush's level).
But they've been trying to build a larger narrative, which the reality-based community appears not to grasp. Since the financial and economic meltdown is so complex that many of those working on the issue aren't sure of its dynamic and potential effects, and since it's thus difficult to turn it into political points because no one in Washington is exactly sure where to play out the politics, the Republicans seem to have directed efforts towards manufacturing their own reality out of the mess, as they're wont to do.
The McCain people and surrogates have been trying to turn a particular narrative - in brief, that Fannie and Freddie are the cause of the global economic meltdown and that Barack Obama's campaign is in bed with the former leaders of Fannie/Freddie. If you talk with Republican true-believers, you hear this over and over. Fannie and Freddie are the root of the meltdown.
This helps paint part of a larger picture about Obama that apparently plays well with many Republicans. It involves:
Fear of world government (that government intervention in the global financial crisis is the first step). Fear or disdain of minorities (Fannie and Freddie were targets before the current crisis because they offer low-interest loans to minorities and the eocnomically disadvantaged - as Neil Cavuto of Fox said, "Loaning to minorities and risky folks is a disaster"). Fear of "the Arab" candidate (or "Muslim") in search of a new global order. (And toss in fear that "liberals" - tolerant of minorities and "Muslims" - are going to take away Christmas from everybody).
Commentators say that's what triggered the stock market meltdown and the freeze on credit. They've specifically targeted the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which the federal government seized on Sept. 6, contending that lending to poor and minority Americans caused Fannie's and Freddie's financial problems.
Federal housing data reveal that the charges aren't true, and that the private sector, not the government or government-backed companies, was behind the soaring subprime lending at the core of the crisis.
Subprime lending offered high-cost loans to the weakest borrowers during the housing boom that lasted from 2001 to 2007. Subprime lending was at its height vrom 2004 to 2006.
Federal Reserve Board data show that:
_ More than 84 percent of the subprime mortgages in 2006 were issued by private lending institutions.
_ Private firms made nearly 83 percent of the subprime loans to low- and moderate-income borrowers that year.
_ Only one of the top 25 subprime lenders in 2006 was directly subject to the housing law that's being lambasted by conservative critics.
The "turmoil in financial markets clearly was triggered by a dramatic weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages, beginning in late 2004 and extending into 2007," the President's Working Group on Financial Markets reported Friday.
Consciously Conceptualizing Death
Death is so strange to us because consciousness cannot experience death, which involves the lack of itself. So says Jesse Bering in Scientific American.
So why is it so hard to conceptualize inexistence anyway? Part of my own account, which I call the “simulation constraint hypothesis,†is that in attempting to imagine what it’s like to be dead we appeal to our own background of conscious experiences—because that’s how we approach most thought experiments. Death isn’t “like†anything we’ve ever experienced, however. Because we have never consciously been without consciousness, even our best simulations of true nothingness just aren’t good enough.
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Le Clézio
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Empathy
My sentiments also too, indeed (and McWinky it is, for now and evermore). Wolcott:
Tough Being a Racist These Days
An Obama supporter, who canvassed for the candidate in the working-class, white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, sends over an account that, in various forms, I've heard a lot in recent weeks.
"What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."
Monday, October 06, 2008
Inventing Liberals
Perhaps because liberals generally hold fairly reasonable positions (with which the majority agrees when not cowed by fear-mongering and distortion from the right), and probably because Republicans can never find enough enemies to satiate the appetite of their political maw, nor allies for that matter, they have invented the "anti-gay liberal." This takes "creating our own reality" into new and unexplored territory. The Republicans' "own reality" is now populated not only by satanic gay communist Muslims who hate America, but also liberals who look and sound just like rightwing conservatives. I suppose this was finally needed in that alternate reality so that a specious position could come with the endorsement of someone ostensibly endowed with common sense. Salon:
Conservatives applauded Blankenhorn vigorously. A press release sent out Sept. 22 from Christian News Wire emphasized, "What is noteworthy is the source: the author of the Op-Ed piece is a Liberal Democrat, which underscores the broad support for Proposition 8 in order to protect marriage for society, our institutions, and for children in California." Gushed one blogger: "Frankly it's astonishing that a liberal could hold the kind of morality, honesty and insight displayed in this article and still call himself a liberal, but okay....
During the 15 years preceding 2006, IAV received nearly $4.5 million in funding from a coterie of ultra-conservative Republican foundations, including the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, the Scaife Family Foundation, and the Randolph Foundation. These foundations supply funds for a network of right-wing Republican think tanks that promote a variety of causes such as the elimination of gay marriage, abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research; prayer in public schools; creationism and deregulatory free-market economics...
The appearance of Blankenhorn's op-ed in the peak of campaign season (it also ran in the San Jose Mercury News on Monday) plays into a larger Republican strategy. In recent election cycles, Republicans have used anti-gay marriage ballot measures nationwide as a wedge issue and to rally their conservative base voters to the polls. Eleven states put anti-gay marriage propositions on the ballot during the 2004 presidential election; this year, in addition to California, there are propositions up for a vote in Florida and Arizona. While gay marriage may be less of a wedge issue this campaign season, John McCain arguably needs all the help he can get -- including Blankenhorn's -- to rally a conservative Republican base known to dislike him.
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Minnesota
Remember not so long ago when the tight presidential campaign polls in Minnesota were cause for concern for Democrats? Star Tribune Minnesota Poll:
It's a terrifyingly knock-on-wood thing to say, but this race is over. After, of course, one month of vile desperation by McCain/Palin and Republican operatives.
About Climate Resistance
I know almost nothing about the self-styled climate-change curmudgeons Ben Pile and Stuart Blackman or what they've published online or off, yet I was pleased reading the 16 tenets they put forth on their About page and finding it so easy to resist going along with any one of them. That's the kind of curmudgeonliness we all like to go up against.
1. There is good scientific evidence that human activities are influencing the climate. But evidence is not fact, and neither evidence nor fact speak for themselves.
Yea, so what?
2. The evidence for anthropogenic climate change is neither as strong nor as demanding of action as is widely claimed.
Says you. Then there's what the IPCC says.
3. Our ability to mitigate, let alone reverse any such change through reductions in CO2 emissions is even less certain, and may itself be harmful.
So if Kevlar in vests has some toxicity, soldiers and police should fight gun battles without them?
4. The scientific consensus on climate change as widely reported inaccurately reflects the true state of scientific knowledge.
Pshaw. See my replies to 1 and 2, then go read widely elsewhere.
5. How society should proceed in the face of a changing climate is the business of politics not science.
In a manner of speaking, but where are you headed with this?
6. Political arguments about climate change are routinely mistaken for scientific ones. Environmentalism uses science as a fig leaf to hide an embarrassment of blind faith and bad politics.
Environmentalism? Political arguments? Whose do you mean? You can't mean Al Gore or the people I've been listening to.
7. Science is increasingly expected to provide moral certainty in morally uncertain times.
Well there's one to bounce off your thesis advisor.
8. The IPCC is principally a political organisation.
You could say the same about the AMA, but that doesn't make it wrong about what's unhealthy.
9. The current emphasis on mitigation strategies is impeding society’s ability to adapt to a changing climate, whatever its cause.
Unregulated profiteering will take care of it? Leave it to Exxon and Enron? Step away or move upwind of the emissions source and then we'll talk.
10. The public remain unconvinced that mitigation is in their best interests. Few people have really bought into Environmentalism, but few people object vehemently to it. Most people are slightly irritated by it.
And if speed limits slightly irritate most people? Have few really bought into them, because so many occasionaly speed? If a tree falls in the forest and nobody is there to hear it.... I'm bored and slightly irritated myself now.
11. And yet climate change policies go unchallenged by opposition parties.
Political unanimity in the face of a broad concurrence by scientists! If only this were true of Congress.
12. Environmentalism is a political ideology, yet it has never been tested democratically.
As a few people say about taxation.
13. Widespread disengagement from politics means that politicians have had to seek new ways to connect with the public. Exaggerated environmental concern is merely serving to provide direction for directionless politics.
Exaggerating concern in the advocacy of my interests is O.K. with me.
14. Environmentalism is not the reincarnation of socialism, communism or Marxism. It is being embraced by the old Right and Left alike. Similarly, climate change scepticism is not the exclusive domain of the conservative Right.
You say that like it's a bad thing.
15. Environmentalism will be worse for the poor than climate change.
Spanning left to right but being untested democratically, this "Environmentalism" must not be any policy or platform in particular you're talking about, in which case I suppose you might as well say what you like. It's only preposterous out of context.
16. Environmentalism is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Mental models tell me that's hot air, even if I can't tell what it means exactly.
Labels: climate change, experts, policy
Mp3 of the Day
Today's is from the blog, OpiumBen, another great, idiosyncratic music blog. I have in mind the song, "Menyelam Pakai Pipa Udara" by Obeng Ungu and Jalan Buntu from the 1982 album 1951: Sumatran Ladies Wearing Hats as Outlawed by the Government. This is politically-driven Indonesian pop run through a bit of more traditional gamelan sounds and electronic tweedling and sampling, reissued on the Hot Air label. Head over and pay homage to OpiumBen.
p.s. The image above is not related to the tune - just one OpiumBen has up on the post - but it's too cool not to re-post here.
Defining the Realities of Victory
Peter Galbraith in the NY Review of Books:
Friday, October 03, 2008
Photos of North Korea
Stunning photographs of North Korea by Eric Lafforgue. Here's the flickr page. See also his website.
Carmen Miranda in the Quad
This blog must post this:
Emily Balcetis, of Ohio University, and David Dunning, of Cornell University, published a study, in the journal Psychological Science, called Cognitive Dissonance and the Perception of Natural Environments. Balcetis and Dunning describe an experiment in which the test subjects "were taken outside to a highly trafficked, grassy quad at the centre of campus ... The experimenter handed subjects a Carmen Miranda costume, including a grass skirt, coconut bra, hat adorned in plastic fruit, and flower lei. Subjects were told to put on the costume, walk the width of the quad alone, and return, before answering questions about their emotions and their experience."
The researchers were cunningly manipulative, but not to everyone. They made some people feel obliged to stroll in this outlandish getup. But they let others know they could decline.
The Carmen Miranda-ised test subjects "walked across the quad from one statue to another and back (365 ft, or 111.2m, each way) and completed a survey asking them to estimate the one-way distance ."
Balcetis and Dunning predicted the test subjects who felt they had no choice about being Carmen Miranda would make the longest estimates of how far they had walked. That's exactly what happened.
Debate 2!
Right now, Pat Buchanan is on MSNBC talking about Palin's "authenticity." Granted that I might not perceive it that way and can't speak for those who do, but this was a pretty blatant form of cutesy sassiness that you get used to hearing often in a place like Texas (and, apparently, Alaska). She's obviously all style, little substance. Style plays well in politics, though, and I'm sure there are plenty of people who liked that style, apart from the true believers.
But... Biden picked it up and thrashed Palin in the second half of the debate. Remember, we're talking about appearances. Biden's clearly smarter and more knowledgable. You could run the debate a hundred times and he would win every time on substance. (Buchanan's now screaming something). But he managed to be harshly critical of McCain and cast a sympathetic figure at the same time. He doesn't talk about his family's history nearly as often as Palin does, but when he does it is, frankly, a more compelling, sympathetic, and honorable story than Palin's.
Whatever.... This didn't change much. The big news of the night is that Sarah Palin is not an absolute nincompoop. Pretty sad.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Conflict Signatures
Bryan Finoki has more on the satellite signatures from Iraq suggesting that the surge largely piggybacked on ethnic cleansing, mentioned earlier here.
White House Redux

Via BLDGBLOG, the White House Redux design competition winners have been announced.
Bad News on Carbon Emissions
This is from Friday's Washington Post:
In 2007, carbon released from burning fossil fuels and producing cement increased 2.9 percent over that released in 2006, to a total of 8.47 gigatons, or billions of metric tons, according to the Australia-based Global Carbon Project, an international consortium of scientists that tracks emissions. This output is at the very high end of scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and could translate into a global temperature rise of more than 11 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, according to the panel's estimates.
"In a sense, it's a reality check," said Corinne Le Quéré, a professor at the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia and a researcher with the British Antarctic Survey. "This is an extremely large number. The emissions are increasing at a rate that's faster than what the IPCC has used."
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Wallace on the I
I know I'm really slow to talk about David Foster Wallace since his suicide a couple of weeks ago. But I didn't know his work well, and the loss was much better expressed by those who did know him. But I have been meaning to at least post this excerpted commencement speech he gave at Kenyon in 2005. It's brilliant and rich in wisdom. I wish I had known the man. Please read it.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Debate!
Now is the time on the internets where we talk about the debates. Who won? I really don't know. The focus groups and quick post-debate polls all seem to have given it to Obama. Today's conventional wisdom seems to say that Obama won by "holding his own" by looking presidential and McCain rather creepily refused to make eye contact with Obama (when McCain wasn't downright testy - see the "horseshit" video here). I especially like the monkey analysis.
But the holding his own business assumes something I'm loath to assume, which is that McCain is some foreign policy wizard. Look, McCain's foreign policy views are pretty banal center-right views and he has no particular insight over any of perhaps several thousand DC residents. When connecting them up with empirical realities, he's actually wrong much of the time. "Holding his own" against McCain during the foreign policy debate is really not that tough for Obama.
If presidential debates matter more for appearances than anything else - and there's good reason to think that's all they do - it seemed to me a wash. With McCain behind in polls and being sunk further by the Palin choice (as her poll numbers take a nose dive), McCain clearly had to pull off a clear win. That he didn't pretty much means that Obama won on appearances. We have to keep in mind, though, that after the past five decades of presidential debates (or maybe going back to Lincoln-Douglas in 1858), it's still unclear what they're truly good for.
However, I saw maybe 20% of the debate. I mean, I watched it. I was there in front of the tv during the whole thing. But I was with a group of people here in DC all talking loudly, yelling at the candidates, getting up to grab a full beer or plate of food, carrying on little side arguments over certain debate points,.... When as a group we did quietly focus in, I thought that - frankly - the debate was a bore.
Friday, September 26, 2008
As per that debate
John Cole on the debate tonight (which the McCain camp is already announcing they've won!):
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
What If Obama Loses?
The cynics at A Tiny Revolution notwithstanding, Russ Smith goes one further by discussing how we'll all point fingers at each other and suffer personal pain and Democratic Party soul-searching if Obama loses.
Really, I think that's the least of our worries if Obama loses. (See: John McCain and Sarah Palin).
McCainomics
When history so clearly refutes your economic doctrine, the intelligent response is to reassess your thinking. A case in point is the Democrats. Even though their policies were pretty successful during the 1990s, particularly compared to the recent Bush record, in the last few years leading Democratic thinkers realized that they could do better still. Precisely because the economy is heading in the direction of inequality--and because, absent other forces, the poor and middle-class will struggle--Democrats today are putting more emphasis on aggressive efforts to protect average Americans, even if that means meddling with the economy in ways they thought unwise a decade ago.
But Republicans have reacted differently. Instead of taking the last few years as a cue that maybe it's time to offer something besides more Bush-style tax cuts, they decided that what the country really needs is ... more Bush-style tax cuts! And McCain's agenda indicates that he agrees wholeheartedly. After extending Bush's tax reductions, which are set to expire in 2011, McCain would trim taxes on corporate income and estates. He's also proposed creating a new, parallel tax system into which any American could opt. While he's been a bit fuzzy on the details, it, too, would cut taxes disproportionately for wealthy Americans.
If all these proposals took effect, according to the independent and highly respected Tax Policy Center, 80 percent of the McCain tax cuts would go into the pockets of the richest quintile of Americans. They would see their after-tax incomes go up by an average of 6 percent. By contrast, somebody in the middle quintile would see his or her income rise by 1.4 percent while somebody in the poorest quintile would realize a yield of just 0.6 percent. To put these statistics in human terms, a multimillionaire--say, a wealthy landowner in Sedona, Arizona--would get enough money to buy a luxury car. (The top 1 percent of taxpayers would reap an average bonus of more than $100,000 per year under McCain's plan.) But a tool-and-die maker working for a Detroit auto supplier would get about $600, maybe enough to cover half a month's mortgage. Somebody in the lowest income quintile--say, a single waitress in rural Virginia--would, with her $65 windfall, get an extra trip or two to the grocery store.
But that's just half the story. Those tax cuts would cost money--a lot of money. McCain has, at times, invoked the thoroughly discredited supply-side argument that his tax cuts can help pay for themselves by generating more growth..."Photo Spray"
Or maybe "photo spew"?
I'm unfamiliar with the term "photo spray," as is Liz Cox Barrett, writing at CJR. On the meeting between Sarah Palin and Hamid Karzai:
...At this point, the pool was hustled out the room and down to the hotel lobby.
Pool was in the room for a grand total of 29 seconds.
Palin spokesperson Tracey Schmitt gave a statement to reporters in the lobby as to why print pool and wires were not allowed in:
“The decision was made for this to be a photo spray with still cameras and video cameras only.â€
I’m not familiar with the term “photo spray,†but I do think it’s more apt that “photo op†in that it doesn’t imply that something is being given (the campaign provides the press an opportunity to photograph the candidate… in a specific, controlled manner) so much as something is being forcefully dispensed, like pesticide on a pest.
Monday, September 22, 2008
"Faster than you can say Hugo Chavez"
I don't think there has been such a power shift, even in time of war. This is truly unprecedented. I don't think any other administration would have the chutzpah to do this--even Nixon. Roosevelt would find it amusing but he wouldn't have dreamed of going this far. Bush/Paulson obviously want Congress way, way out of the loop for some reason.
Yale Law deputy dean Jon Macey on the sought-for $700 billion, no-strings, blank check for the Executive to spend in any way and on any corporation it chooses, with a guarantee of immunity from future investigative review and/or prosecution by Congress or in the Courts. On NPR's great new pod series, Planet Money
Labels: Bush Administration, Communism, Congress
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Happy Saturday
Bad week, cranky mood, exhausted,... here's what I've been saving:
The mess in Bolivia:A petit Chavez may not be a good thing for Bolivia. But neither is a reclaiming of the land and resources on the part of the already well-off. As with many or most conflicts in Latin America, racism and classism are the root problems.
By the way, that surge in Iraq that some people are resting their entire careers on turns out largely to have been ethnic cleansing.
A little exasperated lesson about this week in finance, from John Cole:
In other words, folks spent years making billions upon billions of dollars on risky transactions, more money on the stock of companies that was artificially high based on those transactions, more money bundling all those transactions into more transactions, and made a killing, and when it turns out the whole thing is a big pile of shit, you and I get the god damned bill.
I do not ever want to hear another damned word about the free market. I don’t want to hear another thing about letting the market regulate itself. I don’t want to hear about the free flow of capital. I don’t want to hear about government getting out of our lives.
US politics:Explaining how she felt when John McCain offered her the Vice-Presidential spot, my Vice-Presidential candidate, Governor Sarah Palin, said something very profound: “I answered him ‘Yes’ because I have the confidence in that readiness and knowing that you can’t blink, you have to be wired in a way of being so committed to the mission, the mission that we’re on, reform of this country and victory in the war, you can’t blink. So I didn’t blink then even when asked to run as his running mate.â€
Isn’t that so true? I know that many times, in my life, while living it, someone would come up and, because of I had good readiness, in terms of how I was wired, when they asked that—whatever they asked—I would just not blink, because, knowing that, if I did blink, or even wink, that is weakness, therefore you can’t, you just don’t. You could, but no—you aren’t.
That is just how I am.
Do you know the difference between me and a Hockey Mom who has forgot her lipstick?
A dog collar.
Do you know the difference between me and a dog collar smeared with lipstick?
Not a damn thing.
We are essentially wired identical.
So, when Barack Obama says he will put some lipstick on my pig, I am, like, Are you calling me a pig? If so, thanks! Pigs are the most non-Élite of all barnyard animals. And also, if you put lipstick on my pig, do you know what the difference will be between that pig and a pit bull? I’ll tell you: a pit bull can easily kill a pig. And, as the pig dies, guess what the Hockey Mom is doing? Going to her car, putting on more lipstick, so that, upon returning, finding that pig dead, she once again looks identical to that pit bull, which, staying on mission, the two of them step over the dead pig, looking exactly like twins, except the pit bull is scratching his lower ass with one frantic leg, whereas the Hockey Mom is carrying an extra hockey stick in case Todd breaks his again. But both are going, like, Ha ha, where’s that dumb pig now? Dead, that’s who, and also: not a smidge of lipstick.
A lose-lose for the pig.
There’s a lesson in that, I think.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The Vision Candidate
Monday, September 15, 2008
Who Is John McCain? Part 4
At 3 Quarks:
We must know: What is McCain's position on hylozoism? If he is against it, then what, pray tell, does he propose to get nature moving again? We have heard reports of his proposals for giving the economy a "boost," but in God's name what use will this be if, in the end, our world is nothing more than a great mass of corpuscles rudely knocking each other about?







