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JOEL C. ROSENBERG

www.joelrosenberg.com

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

WAR IN NOVEMBER?


UPDATED: War clouds continue to build in the epicenter. Last month in Rome, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed that the United States and Israel would soon be "annihilated," language he had not used so explicitly since October 2005 when he promised to wipe Israel "off the map" and urged Muslims to "envision a world without the United States." This week, his regime authorized a new series of Iranian war games. He ordered the digging of 320,000 graves to bury the enemies of Islam. He is calling for the unification of the Islamic world politically and economically, including the creation of a single currency.

What's more, Iranian TV is running a new anti-Semitic documentary film series entitled, "The Secret of Armageddon." Setting the stage for a coming apocalyptic war that will usher in the Islamic Messiah known as the Mahdi or the "Twelfth Imam," the series focuses on a series of Bible prophecies that inform Jewish and Christian End Times theology. While the presentation is grossly distorted, some facts do emerge. Iranian scholar Dr. Ismail Shafe'i Sarustani , for example, tells viewers that the word "Armageddon" is "originally a Hebrew word" and "is a real geographical region, situated south of Haifa," noting that "the place was shelled by Hizbullah during the 33-day [July 2006] war." Iranian historian Mohammad-Taqi Taqipour notes that "these [Evangelical Christians], along with the Jews, believe that the War of the End of Days will take place in the desert of Megiddo, in Palestine. They believe that Jesus will return, and that then there will be a millennium of happiness."

The series, however, accuses Jews who were recently victims of genocide -- during the Holocaust Ahmadinejad denies ever happened -- of actually planning to commit genocide. "There is a genocidal Zionist Jewish plan for the genocide of humanity at the hand of the Zionist Jew-boys," claims one Iranian researcher interviewed for the program. "The Zionist Jew-boys talk about a 'Greater Israel' -- from the Euphrates to the Nile -- but their actual goal is world domination." At one point, Iranian researcher Shams Al-Din Rahmani argues that "the goal of the Zionists is the total destruction of Islam."

During the June 7th episode, the narrator embraces anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and proceeds to try to justify Iran's own war plans. "Today, there are many indications that the 'hidden hands' of world Zionism were involved in the 9/11 terrorist attack. According to a large group of Western intellectuals, the Zionists are the real rulers of the United States. According to irrefutable documents published by independent American media outlets, the Zionists used intelligence agents and spies, with the full cooperation of agencies with the country, to carry out this terrorist operation in full view of the world, in order to prepare the ground for taking over Afghanistan and Iraq, and to realize the dream of a greater Israel."

Top Israeli intelligence officials, meanwhile, increasingly believe that time is running out. They believe that Iran could have nuclear weapons within a year and one former Mossad chief is urging his country's leadership to launch a massive series of air strikes against Iranian nuclear and other military facilities before it is too late. Israel's Air Force just conducted a test run of such a bombing mission. John Bolton, the former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N., says he believes Israel may strike Iran sometime in late fall or early winter, after the U.S. elections in November but before the inauguration of the next American President on January 20. A senior Pentagon officials told the Washington Post several days ago he is worried about the same scenario -- a November surprise -- prompting both President Bush and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs to make strong public statements warning the Israelis not to take such actions. Until just a few weeks ago, it was widely believed in Israel that new parliamentary elections would be held in November. But at the last moment, Defense Minister Ehud Barak withdrew his threat of voting to bring down the Olmert government for a few more months. This led some to speculate that Barak may be calculating that Israelis couldn't be fully immersed in an electoral campaign and a bombing campaign simultaneously.

The U.S. does not want Israel to strike. After all, the repercussions of such a war with Iran would be global in nature. Israel would face tens of thousands of incoming missiles not just from Iran but likely from Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza and possibly the West Bank. Some of these missiles could be have chemical and/or biological warheads, even if the nuclear warheads in Iran are not yet ready. Ballistic missiles would also be likely fired from Iran at the oil fields in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, at oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Straight of Hormuz, and at U.S. bases and forces in Iraq. Tens of thousands of suicide bomber cells could be activated in the region -- especially in Iraq and Israel -- and perhaps even in Western Europe and the U.S. and Canada. Iranian efforts to topple Jordan's King Abdullah II and/or Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in favor of radical Islamic regimes friendly to Tehran could also be set in motion. Oil prices could shoot from $140 a barrel to $300 a barrel or more. U.S. gas prices could spike to $7-$10 or more, with horrific domestic and global economic repercussions.

No wonder Washington doesn't want a war with Iran. No wants such a war. I certainly do not, nor do the Israelis. Yet, the U.S. does not have a convincing plan to stop the Iranian nuclear weapons program in time. Nor does the U.N., or the E.U. Diplomacy isn't working. Economic sanctions have been imposed on Iran since 1979 to little strategic effect. Unfortunately, the words of Sen. John McCain keep echoing in my head this week. In April 2006, the senior Senator from Arizona appeared on NBC's Meet the Press. He warned, "there's only one thing worse than using the option of military action, and that is the Iranians acquiring nuclear weapons." For if Iran gets the Bomb, he said, "I think we could have Armageddon."

Developing....

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KEY HEADLINES TO TRACK:
* Israel has a year to destroy Iran's nuclear programme: ex-spy chief
* Former Mossad chief: Israel must attack Iran: 'Or we will find ourselves in very dangerous situation'
* John Bolton: Israel could strike Iran after U.S. presidential election
* Don't bomb Iran, Bush warns Israel
* Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen: US army would find 'third front' hard if Israel attacks Iran
* Mullen: Many risks if Israel strikes Iran
* Iran's Revolutionary Guards hold war games -- code-named: "The Great Prophet Maneuvers"
* Iran digging graves for 320,000 enemies in preparation for coming war
* Ahmadinejad calls for a single currency for the Islamic world
* AHMADINEJAD VOWS U.S & ISRAEL WILL SOON BE "ANNIHILATED": Israeli leader says war may be "unavoidable"
* Washington Post: PENTAGON OFFICIAL WARNS ISRAEL COULD ATTACK IRAN BY YEAR'S END: Chairman of Joint Chiefs was in Israel over weekend
* ISRAELI AIR FORCE PRACTICING TO ATTACK IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES
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* "60 Ways To Bless Israel At 60"
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posted by Joel C. Rosenberg @ 7:22 AM

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

HISTORIC HANDSHAKE: Iraqi President actually greets Israel's Defense Minister


Please forgive me for not updating this blog as often as usual. The main reason is that I'm immersed this summer in writing a new non-fiction book, Inside The Revolution, about the battle between Radicals and Reformers in the Middle East for the soul of the Islamic world. One of the Reformers that has most intrigued me is a man by the name of Jalal Talabani. As the first truly democratically elected President of Iraq in human history and one who has consistently put his life on the line to fight the jihadists in his country, Talabani is a man who should be on the cover of Time and Newsweek. He should be the subject of lengthly profiles by network TV news magazines. One should be able to buy a New York Times best-selling biography of him. In short, Jalal Talabani should be a household name in the U.S. for the convictions he holds, the risks he takes, and the success he is achieving, bit by bit, day by day, week by week. And yet he receives almost no serious press coverage in the U.S. or Europe. Over the past few months, I have interviewed those who know this 74-year old Kurdish patriot well. I've read hundreds of pages of speeches by him and articles about him, trying understand how this former violent rebel leader somehow transformed into a Jeffersonian Democrat in pursuit of a peaceful, prosperous, tolerant and pluralistic Iraqi society, friendly towards the U.S., friendly towards Jews and Christians, and deeply opposed to radical Islam. It's a story that intrigues me and, I confess, still baffles me. But I'm hunting down every lead I can, and praying for an opportunity to actually interview Talabani on my next trip to Iraq. That said, perhaps you can understand how interesting I found this story of President Talabani smiling and shaking hands with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, now Israel's Defense Minister. What's more, the meeting was arranged by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. It was a small but historic moment that took place yesterday at a conference just outside of Athens, Greece. Talabani's office downplayed its significance tot he Iraqi press so as not to stir up more trouble inside their troubled country. But the truth is, it was significant. The last President of Iraq -- Saddam Hussein -- vowed to incinerate half of Israel with chemical weapons....and went on to launch 39 ballistic missiles at the Jewish State during the first Gulf War. Clearly, Talabani is cut from wholly different cloth. And thank God. Worth watching, to say the least.

posted by Joel C. Rosenberg @ 8:05 AM

PENTAGON OFFICIAL WARNS ISRAEL COULD ATTACK IRAN BY YEAR'S END: Chairman of Joint Chiefs was in Israel over weekend


Excerpts from an ABC News story by Jonathan Karl: "Senior Pentagon officials are concerned that Israel could carry out an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of the year, an action that would have enormous security and economic repercussions for the United States and the rest of the world. A senior defense official told ABC News there is an 'increasing likelihood' that Israel will carry out such an attack, a move that likely would prompt Iranian retaliation against, not just Israel, but against the United States as well. The official identified two 'red lines' that could trigger an Israeli offensive. The first is tied to when Iran's Natanz nuclear facility produces enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. According to the latest U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, that is likely to happen sometime in 2009, and could happen by the end of this year. 'The red line is not when they get to that point, but before they get to that point,' the official said. 'We are in the window of vulnerability.' The second red line is connected to when Iran acquires the SA-20 air defense system it is buying from Russia. The Israelis may want to strike before that system -- which would make an attack much more difficult -- is put in place. Some Pentagon officials also worry that Israel may be determined to attack before a new U.S. president, who may be less supportive, is sworn in next January. Pentagon officials believe the massive Israeli air force exercise in early June, first reported by the New York Times, was done to prepare for a possible attack....'The Israeli air force has already conducted the basic exercise necessary to tell their senior leadership, We have the fundamentals down. Might they need some more training and rehearsals? Yes. But have they done the fundamentals? I think that is what we saw,' the official told ABC News....The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, was in Israel over the weekend for a series of meetings with senior Israeli military officials, including, Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, the chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces. According to a military spokesman, Iran's nuclear program was 'a major topic' of discussion."
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HEADLINES TO TRACK:

posted by Joel C. Rosenberg @ 7:44 AM

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

SARKOZY IN ISRAEL: Vows to stand with the Jewish State in "the battle" to stop Iran


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Israel experienced a moment of terror yesterday when an M-16 gunshot rang out just 200 meters from where French President Nicolas Sarkozy, on his first presidential visit to the Jewish State, was about to board a plane to return to Paris. Israeli security forces moved quickly -- rushing Sarkozy onto the plane and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Shimon Peres into their bullet-proof vehicles [to see video, please click here].

"Shin Bet security service officials [Israeli equivalent of the U.S. FBI and Homeland Security] immediately ran toward where they had heard the shot, and found the border policeman, who was positioned on top of a building, lying on the ground below," reported Haaretz. "A Magen David Adom [Israeli version of the Red Cross] team could not resuscitate him and he was declared dead. Officials soon ruled out the option that he accidentally shot himself before the fall, or that his gun misfired upon impact with the ground, and concluded that he apparently committed suicide using his M-16 rifle, causing him to fall off the building. An autopsy of the body confirmed their conclusion. Border Police officials said the man, a member of the Druze community, had served as a border policeman for eight years since he was discharged from mandatory service in the Israel Defense Forces. His family asked media not to publish his name. The man had arrived at Ben-Gurion Airport together with other border policeman to guard the perimeter of the event. "

It was all a bizarre and sad ending to an otherwise fascinating three-day visit. Sarkozy, whose maternal grandfather was a Greek Jews, continues to surprise and impress me as one of the best friends the U.S. and Israel has ever had in France. During his speech to the Knesset, he declared his government resolve not to allow Iran acquire or develop nuclear weapons and to stand with Israel "in the battle" to stop Iranian mullahs from getting the Bomb. "A nuclear Iran is intolerable," Sarkozy insisted. "Anyone trying to destroy Israel will find France blocking the way....Israel must know it is not alone in the battle against Iran's nuclear ambitions." This was particularly signficant -- and welcome -- in light of recent comments by Israeli officials that war with is increasingly likely with Iran, and in light of recent air force exercises by Israel to prepare for such an eventuality.

Unfortunately, Sarkozy also said he believed Jerusalem needed to be divided to allow the Palestinians to have their capital there. That drew a firm response from Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu who insisted Jerusalem should never be divided again. "Jerusalem is the historic capital of the Jewish people. Jerusalem will not be divided, and only Israeli control in the city will guarantee freedom of worship for all religions," said Netanyahu.

posted by Joel C. Rosenberg @ 6:51 AM

Friday, June 20, 2008

ISRAELI AIR FORCE PRACTICING TO ATTACK IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES



"Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities," reports the New York Times and International Herald Tribune this morning. "Several American officials said the Israeli exercise appeared to be an effort to develop the military's capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran's nuclear program.

"More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the maneuvers, which were carried out over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece during the first week of June, American officials said. The exercise also included Israeli helicopters that could be used to rescue downed pilots. The helicopters and refueling tankers flew more than 900 miles, which is about the same distance between Israel and Iran's uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, American officials said. Israeli officials declined to discuss the details of the exercise.....

"But the scope of the Israeli exercise virtually guaranteed that it would be noticed by American and other foreign intelligence agencies. A senior Pentagon official who has been briefed on the exercise, and who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the political delicacy of the matter, said the exercise appeared to serve multiple purposes. One Israeli goal, the Pentagon official said, was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and all other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclear installations and its long-range conventional missiles. A second, the official said, was to send a clear message to the United States and other countries that Israel was prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium continued to falter....

"Shaul Mofaz, a former Israeli defense minister who is now a deputy prime minister, warned in a recent interview with the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot that Israel might have no choice but to attack. 'If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack,' Mofaz said in the interview published on June 6, the day after the unpublicized exercise ended. 'Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable.'"

posted by Joel C. Rosenberg @ 12:11 PM

Thursday, June 19, 2008

GAZA TRUCE: PORTENT OF WAR, NOT PEACE


At 6am local time, a truce between Israel and Hamas terrorists in Gaza, brokered by the Mubarak government in Cairo, went into effect. I hope it brings some measure of calm to the 500,000 Israelis who live on the southern border with Gaza. They deserve it, and much more. But I have to be honest: I'm not optimistic. To the contrary, I believe the enfeebled government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has just given Hamas and the mullahs in Iran a significant victory, and set the stage for a larger regional war.

"We are at the end of our tolerance with regard to terror in Gaza," Olmert said yesterday. Oh really? Hamas and Iran are not exactly shivering in their boots. They've been hearing Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak sing the same song for well over a year. The Undynamic Duo have been threatening to launch a full-blown invasion of Gaza to root out the Hamas terrorists that have launched more than 5,000 rockets, missiles and mortars at innocent Israeli civilians. (yesterday alone, some 30 Qassam rockets were fired from Gaza into Israel). But it's just talk. Olmert and Barak have not kept their word. They have not followed through. They keep pulling their punches. They have not crushed the extremists celles in the Gaza Strip. Instead, they have shown hesitation, weakness, moral indecision. And in so doing, they have allowed Gaza to become Hamastan, a new radical Islamic jihadist enclave, a base camp for never-ending terrorism against the Jewish State, largely funded and armed by Iran. Now, this cease-fire will allow Hamas forces to regroup, reorganize, rearm and rest up for the next lethal assault against the Israeli people.

The Radicals smell blood in the water. They are convinced that the Israeli leadership and populace are losing heart. They are convinced that the end is near for the Zionist State, and thus the End of Days is near as well. Thus, they are building alliances. They are stockpiling weapons. They are feverishly trying to build, buy or steal weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons. They are preparing themselves for an apocalyptic war that will launch at Israel from all sides -- from Hezbollah in Lebanon, from the thuggish Assad regime in Syria, from the Hamas-controlled Gaza and, of course, from Iran itself. If they can assassinate the leaders of Jordan and Egypt in the not-too-distant future, they would be even happier. For then Israel would be completely surrounded. Then they would be well poised to "wipe Israel from the map." Then they could turn their full attention to annihilating the United States, and usher in the conditions into which the Islamic Messiah or Mahdi could arrive and establish and Islamic global empire.

Now is not a time to demonstrate weakness. The stakes are too high.

Excerpts from the Ynet News interview with opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, criticizing the cease-fire: "I can understand the disappointment Gilad Shalit's family must feel. I wouldn't have agreed to this make-believe ceasefire, but since the government obviously did, one has to wonder why it didn't prerequisite his release. It's inconceivable," said Netanyahu. "I would like to know, what did we achieve here exactly? Hamas will not stop rearming – (Hamas politburo chief) Khaled Mashaal said they wouldn't and the defense establishment already said the truce will be fragile. We didn't get Gilad back. We got nothing. The government is allowing Hamas to go about rearming before the next round of terror attacks....The [Olmert] government agreed because it has a policy of weakness. It promotes passiveness and the lack of action characteristic of many of the governments in Israeli history. This is evident of a lack of leadership. Israel has exercised more forces for lesser things. I don't think this is a matter of different political views – this is a matter of impotence... the prime minister and the defense minister are blaming each other for putting politics first. This is an incompetent government faced with a clear security threat and doing absolutely nothing about it....We want the children of Sderot to sleep peacefully for many years to come. We have no choice but to act. We have to stop being passive and work towards toppling Hamas' rule (in Gaza). Israel cannot afford to have an Iranian enclave, which has no intention of recognizing our right to exist. This zealous enclave will not change its nature. The next conflict is underway."

Excerpts from Wall Street Journal oped today by Middle East historian Michael B. Oren, also critical of the deal: "Proponents of an Israeli-Palestinian accord are praising the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that went into effect this morning. Yet even if the agreement suspends violence temporarily -- though dozens of Hamas rockets struck Israel yesterday -- it represents a historic accomplishment for the jihadist forces most opposed to peace, and defeat for the Palestinians who might still have been Israel's partners....The Olmert government will have to go vast lengths to portray this arrangement as anything other than a strategic and moral defeat. Hamas initiated a vicious war against Israel, destroyed and disrupted myriad Israeli lives, and has been rewarded with economic salvation and international prestige. Tellingly, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who once declared Hamas illegal, will soon travel to Gaza for reconciliation talks. Mr. Abbas's move signifies the degree to which Hamas, with Israel's help, now dominates Palestinian politics. It testifies, moreover, to another Iranian triumph. As the primary sponsor of Hamas, Iran is the cease-fire's ultimate beneficiary. Having already surrounded Israel on three of its borders -- Gaza, Lebanon, Syria -- Iran is poised to penetrate the West Bank. By activating these fronts, Tehran can divert attention from its nuclear program and block any diplomatic effort. The advocates of peace between Israelis and Palestinians should recognize that fact when applauding quiet at any price. The cost of this truce may well be war."
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* "60 Ways To Bless Israel At 60"
* Featured on Dobson show: Dead Heat: A Novel (34% off at Amazon)

posted by Joel C. Rosenberg @ 8:01 AM

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

U.S. TO LAUNCH NEW "SURGE," THIS TIME IN AFGHANISTAN





With the clock running on his presidency -- and the possibility of a new American president dramatically reducing U.S. military forces in the Middle East come next year -- President Bush is taking no chances. He seems determined to do everything he possibly can to crush al-Qaeda and the Taliban, protect the American people from future terrorist attacks, ensure the security and stability in Afghanistan, and safeguard the embattled government of President Hamid Karzai, the first democratically elected Afghan leader in history. So with the "surge" dramatically boosting security in Iraq, he has directed U.S. military officials to launch a new "surge," this time in Afghanistan.

Over the last few weeks, I've been hearing a lot of chatter from friends and acquaintances in military units and diplomatic positions around the country and around the world who are being readied to head into Afghanistan soon. While the Pentagon is being tight-lipped about specifics, one recent report suggested as many as 7,000 American troops could be headed to the Afghan theater in the next few months. That would represent a dramatic 21% increase from current troop levels, and a stunning 65% increase from spring 2007.


"I think that no matter who is elected president, they will want to be successful in Afghanistan," Defense Secretary Robert Gates said recently.

The timing of a new allied offensive in Afghanistan is critical. In recent months, President Karzai has insisted privately to U.S. and NATO officials that more troops were needed to deal with a resurgence of terrorist activity in the country. Then on Friday, Taliban forces pulled off a daring prison break, allowing scores of incredibly dangerous militants -- including numerous would-be suicide bombers -- to escape into the mountains. "Under cover of darkness, nearly all of an estimated 1,150 prisoners, including some 400 Taliban inmates, fled from the jail, two officials in the southern city of Kandahar told Reuters on condition of anonymity." The horrifying incident just underscored the need for stepped up allied operations in the country.
In London on Monday, President Bush thanked British Prime Minister Gordon Brown for agreeing to send more British troops to augment the NATO forces deployed in Afghanistan. "Britain's new deployment of about 230 engineers, logistical staff and military trainers to Afghanistan will boost the number of British forces in the country to more than 8,000, most based in Helmand province in the south," reports the Associated Press. NATO is said to be planning to send upwards of 2,000 total troops soon.

Evidence of the renewed White House focus on securing and rebuilding Afghanistan could be seen in last week's trip by First Lady Laura Bush. "When the Taliban were driven from power in 2001, they left Afghans to build a society from nothing. But working in partnership with the United States and other nations, the Afghan people have made amazing progress," noted the First Lady in a June 12th op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. "Since the fall of the Taliban, Afghanistan's infant-mortality rate has been reduced by almost 25%. Its per capita GDP has increased by 70%. In 2001, only 8% of Afghans had access to basic health care. Today, that number is 85%. In 2001, fewer than a million Afghan children were in school – all of them boys. Today, more than six million Afghan children are in school – about a third of them are girls. On my trip, I saw how these developments are offering Afghans new hope. Yet many hurdles still lie ahead – and my trip was a reminder of those, too. The new schools and roads I visited stood in the shadow of Bamiyan's sandstone cliffs – where two hollow caves are all that remains of Afghanistan's ancient Buddhas, blown up by the Taliban in 2001. Those scars in the cliffsides are a reminder of the danger lurking in the Afghan hills. It's a danger we read about on the front pages, as the Taliban and al Qaeda step up their campaign of suicide bombings and violence. And it is a danger that threatens to erase the progress that Afghans have made. This morning, President Hamid Karzai will present his government's five-year plan for securing that progress. The Afghan National Development Strategy defines how the government will work to improve education and health care, and to address the nation's overwhelming poverty and lack of basic infrastructure. The plan also addresses energy and agriculture needs. Right now, only 12% of Afghans have access to electricity. And an agricultural crisis threatens starvation. Mr. Karzai has urged farmers to grow wheat instead of poppy, so that they and their neighbors will not go hungry. The national strategy is a solid plan to address Afghanistan's many challenges, and it is clear that Afghanistan will also need solid support from its international partners. At today's conference, the United States will pledge $10.2 billion toward the nation's development efforts. This comes on top of the $5.9 billion we committed in 2006 at the donor conference in London. And it means that our commitment of humanitarian, development, and security assistance since 2001 now totals more than $26 billion."
On a curious related note: Senator Barack Obama -- who has been hammered for the past three weeks by Sen. John McCain for being more willing to sit down and negotiate with foreign despots like Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and North Korea's Kim Jong Il than U.S. military commanders like General Petraeus -- announced Monday that he will visit Iraq and Afghanistan before the November elections. Sen. Obama has not been to Iraq in more than two years and has not seen any of the results of the "surge" there for himself.
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posted by Joel C. Rosenberg @ 5:18 AM

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

WAR, PEACE & POLITICS: Transcript from my interview on CNN Headline News


The following is the conversation I had last night on CNN Headline News with the guest host of the "Glenn Beck Show" as we discussed the growing threat of war with Iran and the U.S. presidential campaign. Note: Just to be clear, I was speaking last night as a private citizen, not as the head of The Joshua Fund, which is a non-profit humanitarian relief organization and does not get involved in partisan politics.
---------------------------------------------------------
June 9, 2008

Topic: Possible war with Iran and the U.S. presidential campaign

PAGLIARULO: Hello, America. I'm Joe Pagliarulo -- Joe Pags -- sitting in for Glenn Beck while he`s touring the country for his summer stage show....With world leaders looking to the oil czars of OPEC for help from, or at least an explanation to, the historically high prices kicking us in the back pocket and in the gas tank, today they may just have their answer. Iran. OPEC`s second largest supplier has blamed the double-digit jump in the price of a barrel of oil on, yes, the weakening dollar. But also on a comment made by a senior Israeli official just this past Friday. Quote, "If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it," end quote.So, rising Middle East tensions affect the price of oil? Who knew? Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert did distance himself from those comments yesterday, but he did not explicitly -- explicitly reject them. So distance, yes, rejection, no. What`s the difference? I don`t know. Last week`s Iran`s president said that Israel would, quote, "soon disappear" -- that`s nothing new -- and has repeatedly called for that country`s extinction. His most recent rhetorical aggression is another reminder that the Middle East will undoubtedly be a central focus of not only this campaign but also the next administration`s first 100 days. So who`s the guy best equipped for this dogfight? Joining me now is Joel Rosenberg, author of "Dead Heat," the founder of The Joshua Fund. The average American, I would bet you, if we walked out on the street -- maybe not here in Manhattan, but I think middle America -- would not say Iran first if you asked them why the price of oil is so high.

JOEL ROSENBERG, AUTHOR, "DEAD HEAT": Iran, and their feverish attempt to steal, buy or make nuclear weapons, is the No. 1 threat in the Middle East. And now Israel`s deputy prime minister is now saying it looks as though war with Iran may be unavoidable. That`s the comment that seems to have driven up the price of oil. And understandably so. I think a confrontation very well may be coming. Whether it`s this year or next, it means the stakes are very high for who we select as the next commander in chief.

PAGLIARULO: OK. So we`ve got two people now. The presumptive nominees are McCain and Obama, both senators. Both have Washington addresses. They both claim they`re going to bring change, which is not true. How they deal with -- individually, how do they deal with Iran? I know that Barack Obama has said he`ll sit down with Ahmadinejad. I know that McCain says he`s not going to play that game and at one point saying, "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran." What do you make of these two guys? Are they going to help or hurt?

ROSENBERG: Well, it`s a very serious question. And the question, I think, needs to be framed this way. If war is really coming with Iran, if it`s unavoidable -- and I hope that it`s not unavoidable. But if it is, who`s the most qualified and experienced person to be the next commander in chief? Now Senator Obama, he`s got a big problem. First of all, he`s got no military experience. He`s got very little Washington experience. He doesn`t know the world leaders, doesn`t know our military leaders. So that`s a challenge. But more importantly even that than that, his first foreign policy move, Senator Obama`s, upon entering the Oval Office next January if he`s elected, he said he will surrender in Iraq. He will pull U.S. forces out of the Middle East as rapidly as possible. This is not exactly going to send a message to make Iran fear us, much less stop building or buying or stealing nuclear weapons. That`s the big danger on his part.

PAGLIARULO: And conversely, what does John McCain do? Again, he`s more of a hard liner, more like President Bush when it comes to the Middle East, certainly. What does he do to keep the pressure on Iran? Guess what? We`ve had sanctions there for almost 30 years. It`s not working.

ROSENBERG: Yes. The sanctions aren`t working. Unfortunately, diplomacy is not working. There`s two tracks that have to be done simultaneously. First, don`t surrender in Iraq. And that`s what, of course, is Senator McCain`s position.

PAGLIARULO: Right.

ROSENBERG: Is that keep the pressure on in Iraq. But the next question is how are we actually going to stop Iran from getting these weapons? We`re getting to the point where it looks as though, if sanctions and diplomacy aren`t working, we may, in fact, have to resort to a massive air attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and air defenses.

PAGLIARULO: Well, I don`t want to be the predictor of something so horrible happening.

ROSENBERG: Nor do I.

PAGLIARULO: Let me ask you this. If, in fact, something like that would have to happen, wouldn`t the Israelis do it first, and then what would we do in support of that? Would we verbally support them? Would we get in the planes and go in and do the same thing? How would that go down, in about 30 seconds?

ROSENBERG: Look, I don`t think that the Israelis -- I wouldn`t tell you this, but I don`t think the Israelis have the capacity to neutralize Iran`s nuclear threat.

PAGLIARULO: OK.

ROSENBERG: They don`t have enough in the air force or long-range missiles. The United States does. We have forces in Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkey, and the Persian Gulf. We could do it if we have to. The question is who will make that call? And how much time do we have to make that decision?

PAGLIARULO: So if we had to, we could. If Obama became the president, it probably wouldn`t happen, because he`d start pulling people out.

ROSENBERG: Well, exactly right. It`s not clear that McCain would take that action.

PAGLIARULO: Right, right, right.

ROSENBERG: But it`s clear that McCain -- that Obama would not.

PAGLIARULO: All right, Joel, thank you very much. We appreciate the expertise.

posted by Joel C. Rosenberg @ 10:22 AM

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