October 10, 2008

"The Alaska Disasta"

When Sarah Palin turns out tomorrow to drop the puck at the Philly Flyers home opener, she'll be greeted by these limited edition trading cards, courtesy of Keystone Progress.

Palin's nickname? "The Alaska Disasta."

She's dubbed a "Rookie Right Winger."

Click through to learn more about Palin's Power Plays: outsourcing American jobs, promoting corporate welfare and requesting millions in dollars of earmarks.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Posted at 06:54 PM | Comments (2) Share:

What The Puck?

Hockey season is finally upon us, and the John McCain-Sarah Palin camp is taking full advantage. Hockey mom Palin has accepted an invitation to "drop the puck at the ceremonial opening face-off" at the Philadelphia Flyers home opener Saturday night against the New York Rangers.

Palin will be joined at center ice by the winner of the "Ultimate Hockey Mom" contest, which the Flyers started shortly after the GOP convention ended last month. (The lucky winner was chosen after submitting a poster showing her "hockey mom pride.")

Ike Richman, a spokesman for the Flyers, said Palin "inspired" the contest -- every contestant who entered received a free lipstick. The "celebration" is not a political event or endorsement, Richman said. But not everyone agrees.

New York Post's Brooks writes that Flyers CEO Ed Snider is using his team and the league "as stage props to advance his own political agenda." Two weeks ago, Snider hosted a debate watch party for Palin, and in June he reportedly donated $50,000 to the GOP.

Sports writers in Philly are also trying to blow the whistle on Palin's appearance. Philadelphia Daily News' Bunch writes: "I do think that anyone who's as offended by this as I am should stand up Saturday night and turn their back on Sarah Palin, and especially turn their back on Ed Snider."

The Palin camp insists this isn't a stunt, just an appearance by a hockey fan. "She's not going out there to deliver a political message," said Ben Porritt, a Palin spokesperson.

The league agrees with Team Palin. NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly issued this statement: "We do not view the Flyers' invitation to Governor Palin to be politically motivated. Governor Palin is a supporter of the sport, which she has proclaimed publicly. As a public figure who has a very public connection with hockey, her recent associations with the Flyers and other NHL franchises is not surprising and, in our view, not inappropriate. Participation of national politicians in team ceremonies in professional sports is far from unprecedented in our sport and occurs routinely in other sports, as well."

Still, Flyers fans aren't exactly known for being the most welcoming bunch. WHYY's Alan Tu blogs: "I suspect Flyers fans, will believe its there [sic] civic duty, to let her know thanks, but no thanks."

FlyerFly, another fan blogger, writes: "At least in this case, they would be giving the big boo-hiss for something that matters instead of Santa Claus at the Vet or Destiny's Child at the NBA Finals. ... I say, let the boos rain down."

If Philly fans do heckle Palin, it might make for an awkward scene. According to her campaign, she plans to stay for at least part of the game.

(SEAN J. MILLER)

Posted at 05:25 PM | Comments (0) Share:

Discovering McCain's Inner Oink

by National Journal's Brian Friel

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has said repeatedly on the campaign trail that he never requested, or received, an earmark in annual appropriations bills during his 22 years in the Senate. My friends, it's just not so.

In April 1989, McCain sent a letter to then-Sen. James McClure, R-Idaho, asking the ranking Re-publican on the Senate Interior Appropriations Subcommittee for a set-aside to help restore a 200-year-old Catholic mission near Tucson, Ariz. "I would like to ask your help in the vital effort to restore San Xavier del Bac, by earmarking $500,000 for that purpose in the FY 1990 appropriations bill," McCain wrote in the signed letter, which is in McClure's archived papers at the University of Idaho.

Brian Rogers, a spokesman for the McCain campaign, said that the mission is a National Historic Landmark and that Congress authorizes preservation funds for landmarks. McCain opposes unauthorized appropriations earmarks, Rogers said. "It does not meet the definition of an earmark," he added. As for the language of the letter, Rogers said it was written by staffers back in 1989. "The verbiage is not something that Senator McCain would have chosen," he said.

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Battle For The Electoral College: Shofar, So Good

Since the Tues. update, the Hotline has published 17 new WH matchups in 13 different states. Barack Obama now leads John McCain in the Electoral College projection 349 EVs to 180 EVs; on 10/7, he led 313 EVs to 201 EVs. Obama also leads 261 to 146 among solid EVs, up from his 234-134 solid EV margin earlier this week.

Like the previous update, McCain's drought of statistically significant leads in swing state surveys continues. In the 12 battleground state polls released since the previous edition of Battle, six have shown Obama with a solid advantage, while none have shown the same for McCain. Among the other six swing state surveys, Obama leads in five and McCain leads just one.

In fact, not one of the 15 Hotline WH '08 Battleground States currently rests as solid McCain, and only two (IN and MO) are lean McCain. Meanwhile Obama has solids leads in FL, IA, NH, PA, VA and WI, while MI, MN, NC, NM, NV and OH all lean towards him. CO and its 9 EVs remain toss-up in today's chart.

Since 10/7, three GOP polls helped build Obama's EV total. A new Strategic Vision (R) poll moved FL to solid Obama, while new surveys by American Research Group (R) and Civitas Institute (R)/Tel Opinion Research (R) moved WV and NC to lean Obama. The only other movement between candidates was MO, which shifted from lean Obama to lean McCain with the release of an ARG (R) poll.

As always, the Electoral College chart reflects all state polling data published in the Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state.

(MATTHEW GOTTLIEB)

(CARRIE DINDINO)

Continue reading "Battle For The Electoral College: Shofar, So Good"

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Weekend Lineup

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY:

Meet the Press hosts NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D), ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH), Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot and Discovery Channel's Ted Koppel.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), CO Gov. Bill Ritter (D), ex-VA Gov./Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder and Rep. Adam Putnam (R-FL).

This Week hosts TBD.

Fox News Sunday hosts McCain mgr. Rick Davis, Obama strategist David Axelrod, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D).

Late Edition hosts Steve Forbes, Washington Times' Tara Wall, Dem strategist Paul Begala, GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez, Dem strategist James Carville, CNN's Gloria Borger, CNN's Candy Crowley and CNN's Ed Henry.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Continue reading "Weekend Lineup"

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Pit Stop

Cindy McCain will Grand Marshal the NASCAR Bank of America 500 tomorrow in Concord, NC, her husband's campaign announced this afternoon.

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McCain In WI: A Kitchen Sink Strategy

John McCain hit Barack Obama today during a speech in La Crosse, WI, for:

-- taking campaign money from executives of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,

-- offering a "misleading" health care plan that will impose fines against employers who don't offer coverage,

-- intending to increase taxes,

-- increasing government spending by more than $860B, and

-- for requesting more than $1B in earmarks.

McCain: "Which candidate’s experience – in government and in life – makes him a more reliable leader for our country and commander in chief for our troops? In short, who is ready to lead? In a time of trouble and danger for our country, who will put our country first?"

And on the housing crisis: "Under my orders, as president, the Secretary of the Treasury will carry out a Homeownership Resurgence Plan. The United States government will support the refinancing of distressed mortgages for homeowners and replace them with manageable mortgages. The funds aren’t new, but the priorities will be when we put the financial strength of our government back on the side of working families. With so much on the line, the moment requires that government act – and as president I intend to act, quickly and decisively."

Full prepared remarks available after the jump.

Continue reading "McCain In WI: A Kitchen Sink Strategy"

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National Journal's Political Insiders: GOPers Say Obama Likely To Win WH

The National Journal Political Insiders Poll released today indicates that eight of 10 Republicans believe there's a high likelihood that Democrats will win the White House next month. Meanwhile, 67% of GOPers said Barack Obama did more to help himself in the second presidential debate.

Here's a sampling of Republican react to the candidates' debate performances, per Insiders Poll writers by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell:

Barack Obama

"Every time Obama is on the same stage with McCain he looks a little more presidential, a little more prepared for the job. McCain's attack strategy made him look so small at a time when the issues are so big."

"He made no mistakes, shed off McCain's punches, and ran down the clock--bringing him closer to Election Day."

"Neither did well, but a tie is a result that significantly helps Obama. McCain cannot get any traction on why he should be president because he has not effectively countered that he would not be a Bush third term."

"Obama appeared steady and presidential. McCain is too angry and full of contempt."

"He continued to dance and bob and weave artfully. No specifics that cannot later be abandoned."

"McCain needed a game-changing performance, and didn't get it."

John McCain

"Neither had a particularly strong night, but at least McCain had a proposal on the mortgage crisis that he can talk about."

"He kept Obama on the defensive--emphasized Obama's youth and inexperience."

"Drew a clear picture of how dangerous an Obama administration would be on the economy."

Posted at 11:24 AM | Comments (3) Share:

McCain Aides' Foreign Work Raises Eyebrows

The GOP nominee's campaign includes lobbyists and consultants who worked for foreign clients, including one who did work for the pro-Russian faction in Ukraine's 2006 elections.

by National Journal's Peter H. Stone

To most political junkies, the name Christian Ferry doesn't mean much, even though he is John McCain's deputy campaign manager.

But Ferry -- whose boss is Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager and a longtime GOP lobbyist -- has an intriguing background in foreign consulting that happens to involve Davis.

Before joining the McCain campaign in early 2007, Ferry worked for Davis Manafort, the lobbying and consulting firm founded by Davis and Paul Manafort. Starting as a driver for Davis, Ferry worked his way up and was assigned key responsibilities for some of the firm's foreign clients. They included a political party in Montenegro and a political leader in Ukraine, both backed by wealthy businessmen and oligarchs who sought to sway the outcome of elections in 2006 in those two nations.

According to two sources familiar with the McCain campaign, Ferry spoke on several occasions of traveling in 2005 and 2006 to the two countries to provide advice on Western-style election techniques such as polling and advertising. Ferry's office at McCain campaign headquarters was adorned with newspaper clippings and other memorabilia from both overseas electoral efforts, according to the sources.

In Montenegro, Davis Manafort helped push a referendum on independence from Serbia that narrowly passed by popular vote in May 2006. In Ukraine, Ferry was part of a Davis Manafort team that advised Victor Yanukovich, the country's then-prime minister, whose pro-Russian party made gains in the 2006 parliamentary elections. (In 2004, Yanukovich lost to the U.S.-backed candidate, Victor Yushchenko, in a hotly contested presidential race.)

Sources say that Davis Manafort received multimillion-dollar fees from each country. "Ferry was on the ground in both countries and talked about it a great deal," said one source with knowledge of the McCain campaign and of the firm's electoral work in Ukraine. The source added that Ferry acted as "Rick's implementer."

These overseas efforts underscore not only how closely Ferry's career has been linked to Davis but also the extent to which the upper ranks of the McCain campaign include lobbyists and consultants who worked for foreign clients.

Continue reading "McCain Aides' Foreign Work Raises Eyebrows"

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HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates

Updates from our Hotline Political Network Affiliates

Continue reading "HPN: Updates From Our State Affiliates"

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Obama In OH: Americans Looking For A Uniter, Not A Divider

Barack Obama gives an economic address this morning in Chillicothe, OH, that challenges voters not to fall for divisive politics peddled by the GOP in the waning days of the campaign. Full prepared remarks are available after the jump. Here's an excerpt:

"Even as we face the most serious economic crisis of our time; even as you are worried about keeping your jobs or paying your bills or staying in your homes, my opponent’s campaign announced last week that they plan to 'turn the page' on the discussion about our economy so they can spend the final weeks of this election attacking me instead. Senator McCain’s campaign actually said, and I quote, 'if we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose.' So in the last couple of days, we’ve seen a barrage of nasty insinuations and attacks, and I’m sure we’ll see much more over the next 25 days. We know what’s coming. We know what they’re going to do.

"But here’s the thing, Ohio. They can try to “turn the page†on the economy and deny the record of the last eight years. They can run misleading ads and pursue the politics of anything goes. But it’s not going to work. Not this time.

"I think that folks are looking for something different. It’s easy to rile up a crowd by stoking anger and division. But that’s not what we need right now in the United States. The times are too serious. The challenges are too great. The American people aren’t looking for someone who can divide this country – they’re looking for someone who will lead it."

Continue reading "Obama In OH: Americans Looking For A Uniter, Not A Divider"

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Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: The Early Line

Obama/Biden: 48%

McCain/Palin: 41%

Undec 7%

--In battleground states (CO, MI, NH, NM, FL, OH, PA, VA, WI and NV), Obama holds a more significant 52-38% lead.

--Obama's lead among women has widened to 14 pts. Yesterday it was a 9 pt. advantage. Obama also holds a 2 pt. lead among men.

- 67% of voters rate the economy as the most important issue facing the country. Obama holds a 6 pt. lead among voters on the issue of who'd best handle the economy.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/7-9 by FD, surveyed 838 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I.

(AMY WALTER)

Posted at 10:38 AM | Comments (20) Share:

"Ambition"

New John McCain ad attempts to link Barack Obama's association with Bill Ayers to the housing crisis. Apparently, the related theme is Obama's "bad judgment." Running nationally.

Script available after the jump.

Continue reading ""Ambition""

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Hotline After Dark -- Courage Under Fire

A majority of last night's TV focused on the economic crisis. Candidates also continued to make the rounds.

ABC's Gibson sat down with John McCain in Milwaukee, where the two talked about Barack Obama's association with Bill Ayers.

Gibson: "You don't think [Obama]'s been thoroughly vetted, having gone through all the primaries and all the campaigning, running for president as long as you have? Two years?"

McCain: "No, actually I don't. In fact, Senator [Hillary] Clinton in their debates said that the American people didn't know enough about him, including his relationship with Mr. Ayers. That's what she said. And I agree with that. ... I don't care about two washed-up old terrorists that are unrepentant about trying to destroy America. But I do care, and Americans should care, about his relationship with him and whether he's being truthful and candid about it."

Gibson: "You didn't raise ... this argument, or line of argument, at the debate the other night. And I asked Senator Obama about that yesterday. He said yeah, I'm surprised that John didn't say that to my face."

McCain: "Again, two things I've never been accused of lacking. And one is passion, and the other is courage. I mean, I can accept a lot of the other criticisms. It didn't come up in the flow of the conversation. But it did come up, and I pointed out that he asked for $3 million for an overhead projector at a planetarium in his hometown of Chicago. And coincidentally the guy who was the chairman of that organization pledged to raise $200,000 for his campaign. His record is replete of requests for pork barrel, unnecessary, wasteful spending. And I'll let the American people make a judgment there."

More after the jump.

(KATHERINE LEHR)

Continue reading "Hotline After Dark -- Courage Under Fire"

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October 09, 2008

And Now A Word From Our Sponsor

NBC/NJ's Athena Jones has confirmed that Barack Obama's campaign has purchased 30 minutes of airtime in primetime on "the networks" for the evening of 10/29. Officials won't specify which networks, however.

How positively Perot-esque.

Posted at 05:11 PM | Comments (1) Share:

Rattled

The Dow dropped below 9,000 this afternoon for the first time since 2003.

And the harder the economy falls, the less likely it seems John McCain and the Republicans will have success with a homestretch smear campaign against the Democratic nominee.

Bill Ayers? Who cares? Cavorting with domestic terrorists? A charge that's unlikely to stick to the Harvard Law-educated Barack Obama. Allowing surrogates to use Obama's middle name, Hussein, to cast doubt on his Christian faith, to imply he's a Muslim, to suggest he's un-American. Garbage.

Who's buying the Democrats' "Keating Five" nonsense, for that matter, when voters are watching their retirement savings evaporate, when they're worried about keeping their homes or paying for health care and college bills.

Both White House candidates would be wise to keep it as clean as possible in coming weeks, to emphasize their economic solutions and compassion for citizens struggling to make ends meet, watching their dreams of a comfortable retirement evaporate in a matter of days.

The problem for McCain in all this is that his economic plans -- to extend the Bush tax cuts, to slash the corporate tax rate -- line up with the president's proposals. The translation -- at least if the Democrats are doing their jobs -- is that he's looking out for the wealthy, not the little guy. That he's more worried about big business than mom and pop shops. And in truly tough and scary economic times, that's an easier sell for the Dems.

The ailing market could help usher Obama into office, but curing it will be a daunting challenge for the next president and an urgent test of his efficacy.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Posted at 04:48 PM | Comments (14) Share:

CNN Poll: 47% Concered McCain Won't Finish First Term

A new CNN survey shows voters are worried about the ability of John McCain, 72, and a skin cancer survivor, to finish his first term. Barack Obama is 47, and the fourth-youngest major party nominee. CNN reports:

In the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. Poll, conducted in late September, 29 percent of those polled said they are "very concerned" about McCain's ability to complete a first term; another 18 percent are "somewhat concerned." That compares with just 8 percent who said they are "very concerned" about Obama's ability to finish his first term in good health and 11 percent who said they are "somewhat concerned."

Posted at 02:54 PM | Comments (7) Share:

"Buster"

New biographical Barack Obama ad -- "Buster" -- running nationally stresses his biographical roots. Mentions his mother and grandparents. Notes that his grandfather served in the Army and that his grandmother worked on a bomber assembly line. Patriotic images: ticker-tape parade, American flag, astronaut landing, a young Obama with a baseball bat.

Script: "His life was shaped by the values he learned as a boy, hard work, honesty, self-reliance, respect for other people, kindness, faith, that’s the country I believe in."

Posted at 02:45 PM | Comments (1) Share:

Biden On McCain: "Not A Steady Hand"

ST. JOSEPH, MO - Joe Biden said today that Republican efforts to highlight Barack Obama's past associations should be discounted, especially since John McCain was unwilling to make related accusations to the Democrat's face.

"All of the things they said about Barack Obama in the TV, on the TV, at their rallies, and now on YouTube ... John McCain could not bring himself to look Barack Obama in the eye and say the same things to him," Biden said this morning. "In my neighborhood, when you've got something to say to a guy, you look him in the eye and you say it."

Biden, who arrived on stage in St. Joseph to chants of "Joe! Joe! Joe," urged the crowd not to be distracted by McCain's claims, saying that every "false charge, every baseless accusation is an attempt to get you to stop paying attention to what's going on in this country and what's going on in your lives." And on the issues that matter, he said, McCain is offbase, particularly on his newest mortgage plan.

"The McCain campaign continues ... to lurch from one place to another trying to convince you all that they're capable of dealing with the incredibly difficult problem," he said. "Now he's gone to the point of actually wanting to reward banks and lenders for their greedy behavior. Ladies and gentlemen, this is not a steady hand."

Biden said that Democrats' plans focus on the middle class, arguing that when the middle class fails, "America fails." That's not to say, he cautioned, that he has any problem with the wealthy.

"God love them, they're patriotic folks," he said. "I hope my grandchildren end up being rich people so I get a window with a view when they put me in a home. But look, all kidding aside, wealthy people do well, when? When the middle class does well."

(NBC/NJ's MIKE MEMOLI)

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Obama Blasts McCain On Mortgage Issue, Calls GOPer "Erratic"

DAYTON, OH – As part of a coordinated multimedia assault, Barack Obama today blasted John McCain for his proposal to have the government buy up bad mortgages, saying it would reward reckless lenders and leave taxpayers to foot the bill.

The tough comments were accompanied by a new television ad airing on national cable that calls into question McCain’s judgment in making the proposal and saying it would bring “more of the same,†a common theme of Obama’s attacks. The Democratic nominee said the next president would have to manage an economic recovery and asked the audience of some 8,500 people filling a minor league baseball stadium here to ask themselves if that president would be looking out for them.

“Will that president be looking out for banks, will that president be looking out for CEOs or will that president be looking out for the workers, for the families of Dayton, OH?,†he said. “That’s the question you’ve gotta ask.â€

Obama said McCain’s mortgage plan – which would order the Treasury Department to buy up bad mortgages at face value, rather than at a discount – would use taxpayer dollars to reward irresponsible lenders and would make it more likely that such lenders would “keep up their bad behavior.â€

Continue reading "Obama Blasts McCain On Mortgage Issue, Calls GOPer "Erratic""

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Nader: Will Send Hummus Recipe For Cash

With fewer than four weeks remaining until election day, it's grown clear that Ralph Nader is not likely to impact the 2008 presidential race to the degree he did the 2000 contest. But a fundraising appeal issued from the candidate today made his campaign appear not just peripheral but decidedly wacky. It came in the form of an essay about the global hummus trade. Nader writes:

Check out the entire letter, including Nader's helpful list of numbers that end in three, here.

(EVAN McMORRIS-SANTORO)

Posted at 12:49 PM | Comments (5) Share:

"Tested"

New Barack Obama ad criticizes John McCain's mortage plan. Says that it would reward lenders and use taxpayer dollars to buy up bad home loan mortgages. Obama is also expected to talk about McCain’s mortgage plan on the stump in OH today.

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Google's 2001 Time Machine; Obama, Who? Palin, Nowhere.

Google's 10th birthday offers a fresh way to explore the historic nature of the 2008 election. As part of the festivities celebrating its first decade of slowly coming to dominate many aspects of users' personal and professional lives, Google has reopened its oldest available search index for use. It's a trip down memory lane for tech geeks; the tool shows Web searches as they would've looked in January 2001.

And back in early 2001, the world was different for the 2008 White House candidates.

Barack Obama was a state legislator who couldn't even get onto the floor at the Democratic convention.

Sarah Palin was a small town politician with big dreams.

Joe Biden and John McCain were veteran Senate leaders, each with a failed bid for his party's presidential nomination under his belt. (OK, so circumstances weren't different for everyone.)

After the jump, the major candidates for the White House as viewed through Google circa 2001. Hint -- Obama only prompted 771 search results. Palin? Zippo.

Continue reading "Google's 2001 Time Machine; Obama, Who? Palin, Nowhere."

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Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll: The Early Line

Obama/Biden: 47%

McCain/Palin: 41%

Undec 9%

-- After a tightening earlier in the week, Obama has re-opened a 6-pt. lead over McCain. This was likely driven by the fact that Obama has expanded his lead among women voters. He now holds a 9 pt. advantage over McCain with women. He also has a 2 pt. lead over McCain among men.

-- Among the 66% of voters who say the economy is their #1 issue, Obama has a 13-pt advantage. And he holds a 6-pt. lead - 44-38% - on the question of who'd do the best job handling the economy. In yesterday's poll, the two were tied on this question.

-- Palin's approval ratings are also sliding and she has almost a 1-1 fav/unfav rating, with 46% rating her favorably and 43% rating her unfavorably.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/6-8 by FD, surveyed 852 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I.

(AMY WALTER)

Posted at 10:46 AM | Comments (14) Share:

AFL-CIO Mailer: "McCain Hasn't Fought For Veterans ... "

The AFL-CIO Union Veterans Council announced a new initiative today to reach union veterans, one million of whom live in critical swing states: WI, MN, MI, PA and OH. The effort includes a new hard-hitting mail piece that will be sent to 100,000 union veteran households in eight states. It criticizes John McCain for not doing enough for veterans.

The mailer -- the latest element of the AFL-CIO's $53M effort to help Barack Obama win the White House -- features Walter Springs, an American Federation of Teachers member and Vietnam veteran. He says, “John McCain hasn’t fought for veterans in Congress, and he won’t fight for them as President. As a veteran, I want to do what’s best for veterans. That means I’m supporting Barack Obama.â€

View the mailer.

(JENNIFER SKALKA)

Posted at 09:16 AM | Comments (0) Share:

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