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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
MANCHESTER, NH – As John McCain tried to put some distance between himself and Bush, Joe Biden sought to lump them back together, playing off the Arizona Republican’s speech by saying he’d “double-down on the same risky bet†of the past eight years.
Returning to New Hampshire’s largest city for the first time since his own presidential bid, Biden told a crowd of 900 at Southern New Hampshire University that McCain made an “honest statement†by saying the nation can’t spend four more years “waiting for our luck to change.†And yet, he asked, “What is he proposing differently?â€
“When Barack Obama is president we’re not gonna wait for our luck to change,†he said. “We’re gonna change our luck. We’re gonna change this country. In the neighborhood I come from, you make your own luck.â€
The Delaware senator echoed some of the economic proposals called for by his running mate today, and said Democrats hope to begin implementing them and others immediately after the election.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
TOLEDO, Ohio -- With just 22 days to go until voters hit the polls,
Obama announced a series of proposals designed to help Americans weather the economic crisis, including tax credits to promote job growth and measures to help people stay in their homes.
Obama has been trying to convince voters that he would be a better steward of the economy than his rival, arguing that he offers steady leadership, can relate to the economic concerns of ordinary Americans and will a champion for the middle class. He has consistently tried to portray McCain as erratic, out of touch and beholden to special interests, big corporations and the rich. Polls over the last few weeks suggest the Democrat is doing a better job of connecting with voters on economic issues.
"We can’t wait to help workers and families and communities who are struggling right now -- who don’t know if their job or their retirement will be there tomorrow; who don’t know if next week’s paycheck will cover this month’s bills," Obama told an audience of about 3,100 people here Monday. "We need to pass an economic rescue plan for the middle-class and we need to do not five years from now, not next year. We need to do it right now."
Video: Speaking in Ohio, Barack Obama lays out specific steps he would take to help U.S. business and consumers begin the road to economic recovery.
The four-part plan, billed as an economic rescue plan for the middle class, includes several new components: a temporary tax credit for companies that create jobs in America over the next two years and a 90-day moratorium on home foreclosures for those making "good faith" efforts to pay their mortgages.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Speaker
Nancy Pelosi is raising the prospect of -- but not committing to -- a lame duck session of Congress to consider a new stimulus package.
She says that House committees will begin a series of hearings to explore the possibility, averring that Congress must "act expeditiously, but not hastily."
New infrastructure spending, expansion of food stamps and unemployment insurance, and aid to states for programs like Medicaid -- items that have been on the Democrat's wish list all summer -- were once again cited by Pelosi as priorities for a second package. She did not rule out a new round of rebate checks, although that does appear to be low on the list of priorities at this point.
"If we do not do a recovery package," she said, referring to a new stimulus, "we will be losing jobs."
Still, she would not commit to a lame duck session. "We'll see what hearings yield," she said.
Meanwhile, House Minority Leader John Boehner is putting forward his own ideas for a lame duck stimulus package. Topping the list is an expanding domestic oil drilling, cutting the capital gains tax, cutting the repatriation tax on corporate profits, lowering the corporate tax rate, and suspending laws that require withdrawals from 401ks beginning at age 70 and half.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
NORFOLK, Va. -- After a weekend full of rumored policy rollouts and strategy suggestions from prominent conservatives,
McCain this morning gave nearly 20,000 Virginia voters a peek at what his campaign has planned for the next 22 days:
a fight.
“We have 22 days to go,†McCain said. “We're six points down. The national media has written us off. Sen. Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq, and concede defeat in Iraq... My friends, but you know what they forgot? They forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've got them just where we want them.â€
Although the substance of today’s speech wasn’t entirely new, McCain’s new fighting spirit was evident in his big finish.
Video: Saying "nothing is inevitable", John McCain tells his audience it's up to them to "go win this election."
“Don't give up hope. Be strong. Have courage. And fight,†McCain said. “Fight for a new direction for our country. Fight for what's right for America. Fight to clean up the mess of corruption, infighting and selfishness in Washington. Fight to get our economy out of the ditch and back in the lead... Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. America is worth fighting for. Nothing is inevitable here. We never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history.â€
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
ROCHESTER, NH – Previewing today’s dueling major speeches at the top of the ticket,
Joe Biden argued that
Barack Obama will show he wants to fix the economy, while
John McCain is more interested in playing more politics.
“It looks like John McCain’s entire speech is gonna be attack, attack, attack, attack,†Biden said. “It couldn’t be clearer to me what’s going on here. John McCain wants to attack Barack Obama and Barack Obama wants to [tackle] the problems that face America today.â€
Speaking in the Granite State, Biden acknowledged McCain’s favored status here. And, he argued, McCain should have had a built-in advantage in times of crisis because he is a “war hero.†But he’s squandered that by his behavior, Biden said.
“John’s hands have been anything but certain in the last year,†he said. “The McCain administration would be uncertain, clinging to the past, lurching from one bad idea to another. … In a New England sense, it’s about a steady hand. It really is about a steady hand and good ideas. Because this is not beyond our capacity. This is not beyond our capacity to turn this country around. And ladies and gentlemen, Barack Obama has steady hands.â€
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Obama expands his lead: Three weeks until Election Day, Obama now holds a more than 100-vote lead in NBC's latest electoral map. He's ahead of McCain 264-163, with 111 votes in the Toss-up column. Last week, Obama was up 264-174. Our changes: We moved Missouri from Lean McCain to Toss-up; Oregon and Washington from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and West Virginia from Likely McCain to Lean McCain. Something's happening in West Virginia -- yes, West Virginia -- because of the economic angst. Obama's been buying a bunch of TV time in markets that bleed into West Virginia, and the numbers have been closing for a time. By the way, political analyst Charlie Cook is moving West Virginia all the way to Toss-up. If that state is on the move, could Arkansas be far behind? Both are states that can show Democratic movement in a bad economic environment.
Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the current state of the national polls and the importance of the battleground states in a possible comeback for John McCain.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)
Lean McCain: MT, WV (8 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY (155 votes)
***
'We’ve got them just where we want them': With McCain down in the national polls -- 10 points (53%-43%) in the latest Washington Post/ABC survey -- McCain’s campaign says the Arizona senator will unveil a new stump speech that casts him as the underdog and as a fighter. "Let me give you the state of the race today,†he is expected to say. “We have 22 days to go. We’re six points down. The national media has written us off. Sen. Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Sen. Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.†More: "What America needs in this hour is a fighter; someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of the American people. I come from a long line of McCains who believed that to love America is to fight for her. I have fought for you most of my life. There are other ways to love this country, but I’ve never been the kind to do it from the sidelines."
*** Running against one-party rule: It's not quite a Bulworth moment (something many Republicans were kinda hoping for), but McCain is trying to goose the "can he comeback?" storyline with a speech that reminds voters of one-party rule in DC. With some Republicans (most notably Lee Terry of Nebraska) trying to latch on to Obama's coattails, it appears the mixed message that some feared might happen is now going to happen. With Republicans up and down the ballot all fending for themselves, does the party risk giving off the desperation whiff? Where are the stories of Democrats running away from Obama? And while we're not seeing Republicans fleeing from McCain just yet, they all are fleeing from Bush Republicanism as their only means of surviving. As we noted last week, it was only a matter of time before both the top of the GOP ticket would start running against the Dem Congress and the Republicans down the ballot would start running on the "check on Obama" message.
*** Obama flies to the rescue: McCain isn’t the only one with a new speech. Per his campaign, in Toledo, OH today, Obama will deliver a “major policy address†to announce his rescue plan for the middle class. Obama is not going to let go of the economic message at all these days; he knows he can't afford to get distracted by anything else. The question, of course, is whether what he's promising is believed. Right now, with a changing economic landscape in Washington and Wall Street that's measured by the Dow, does any proposal by any politician get taken seriously by the public right now.
*** Money to burn? This past weekend, your First Read team had the luxury of watching some TV in the DC area (Northern Virginia). While enjoying college football games on Saturday, the Sunday morning news shows, NFL games, and 60 Minutes, we probably viewed 30-40 Obama TV ads. And get this -- we didn’t see a single McCain advertisement. Likewise, NBC’s Mark Hudspeth and NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones noticed all the Obama TV ads running in the Chicago media market (which bleeds in Indiana and Wisconsin). And our friends at CMAG tell us that Obama is also buying Louisville, KY in order to target Southern Indiana. That said, other members of your First Read team were in the Denver and Madison media markets over the weekend, and we saw our share of McCain/RNC ads; Obama had approximately a 3-2 advantage. Still, we’ve got to ask this question again: Just how much money did Obama raise in September? And given that we didn’t see a single McCain ad in the DC media market, how much of McCain’s $84.1 million is remaining?
***
Is two better than one? Once again today, McCain will be joined by Palin as he holds two different rallies in the battleground state of Virginia (in Virginia Beach and Richmond). As we’ve seen, this joint campaigning produces big crowds for the GOP team. But is it coming at price? The
Wall Street Journal reports that Obama, Biden, and Michelle Obama have held 95 separate events in battleground states since the fall campaign officially began. By comparison, McCain, Palin, and Cindy McCain had done just 55 separate events. “The effect: The Democrats are being seen much more often, in free news coverage and in paid advertising, in the states that will determine the winner,†the Journal writes. By the way, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy notes that today will be McCain’s second campaign event in Virginia since the general election began. And when he visits North Carolina later today, it will be his first stop in the Tar Heel State since May.
***
Just askin’: How have we gotten to this point where McCain supporters believe Obama is un-American, and Obama backing believe McCain’s campaign is inciting violence against Obama? And one other thing: With his decision late last week to pull his negative advertising in the increasingly nasty Senate race in Minnesota, is Norm Coleman seeing something here that goes beyond his own Senate race (where he's been relentlessly negative against Al Franken)? Coleman is running in a battleground state that is seeing a lot of negative ads on the presidential level. Has the collective tone hurt Coleman and other Republicans down the ballot? Or is this unique to Coleman? If his numbers start improving in Minnesota, watch for other Republicans to echo his decision. It may be that voters -- feeling major anxiety -- are reacting downright angrily to the same old, same old, in political campaigning.
*** The bailout plan: What exactly did Congress end up passing? With the Treasury secretary changing the terms of the $700 billion that he has in his arsenal yet again, what is this doing to members of Congress who feel as if that Paulson sold them something different? Doesn't Paulson's latest attempt to change how he uses the money only help to defend those members who wanted to vote against the deal in order to take more time? What was the rush anyway?
Video: CNBC’s Erin Burnett and NBC’s Tom Brokaw discuss the impending market open on “Meet the Press.â€
***
Debunking the Bradley effect: For every pundit that wants to go on the air and talk (er, bloviate) about the so-called "Bradley Effect,"
please read this thoughtful analysis by one of the campaign pollsters who actually participated in that famous '82 campaign. Let's not get carried away with this storyline since it is based more in myth than fact. Writes Tarrance: The other reason I reject the Bradley Effect in 2008 is because there was not a Bradley Effect in the 1982 California Governor's race, either. Even though Tom Bradley had been slightly ahead in the polls in 1982, due to sampling error, it was statistically too close to call."
*** On the trail: McCain and Palin, in Virginia, hit rallies in Virginia Beach and Richmond, and in between McCain holds a solo town hall in Wilmington, NC. Obama, in between debate prep, has an event in Toledo, OH. Biden campaigns in New Hampshire, visiting Rochester and Manchester. Michelle Obama stumps in Rochester, MN. And Hillary Clinton attends a rally for Obama in Horsham, PA.
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 2 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 22 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 99 days
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The latest Washington Post/ABC poll has Obama up 10 points among likely voters, 53%-43%. McCain has made little headway in his attempts to convince voters that Obama is too ‘risky’ or too ‘liberal.’ Rather, recent strategic shifts may have hurt the Republican nominee, who now has higher negative ratings than his rival and is seen as mostly attacking his opponent rather than addressing the issues that voters care about. Even McCain's supporters are now less enthusiastic about his candidacy, returning to levels not seen since before the Republican National Convention. Conversely, Obama's pitch to the middle class on taxes is beginning to sink in; nearly as many said they think their taxes would go up under a McCain administration as under an Obama presidency, and more see their burdens easing with the Democrat in the White House.â€
More: “Nearly two-thirds of voters, 64 percent, now view Obama favorably, up six percentage points from early September. About a third of voters have a better opinion of the senator from Illinois because of his debate performances, while 8 percent have a lower opinion of him. By contrast, more than a quarter said they think worse of McCain as a result of the debates, more than double the proportion saying their opinion had improved. McCain's overall rating has also dipped seven points, to 52 percent, over the past month.â€
Has McCain fallen too far behind? Can anyone point to a precedent where a candidate in a similar position has actually won? Humphrey, Ford, Gore, and Kerry all made it closer, but...
John Harwood notes, "In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Mr. McCain's deficit in that survey has remained seven percentage points or more for most of the last two weeks. Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980. Yet Mr. Carter, like Mr. McCain today, represented the party holding the White House in bad times. After Mr. Reagan successfully presented himself as an alternative to Mr. Carter in their lone debate, held on the late date of Oct. 28, he surged ahead. After two debates, Mr. Obama holds a lead that is approaching Mr. Reagan's eventual margin of victory.â€
CONTINUED >>
COLORADO: The Denver Post: “To understand the candidates' political field strategy in a swing state is to understand some of the most scientific approaches that exist in unearthing wavering voters and pulling them over the fence. The campaigns are wary about giving specifics, but a week of shadowing door-knockers, phone banks and outreach efforts on both sides revealed bare-knuckled aggression to woo voters from Denver to Sterling to Pueblo to Montrose.â€
FLORIDA: Florida consultants worry aloud, "Where's McCain on TV?" Per the Orlando Sentinel: "From late September through Oct. 4, Barack Obama outspent McCain on TV advertising by more than 3-to-1, according to the University of Wisconsin's Advertising Project. The Illinois Democrat dumped more than $2.1 million into state TV buys, while McCain spent $659,000. 'I don't get it,' said a leading Republican consultant who did not want to publicly question the McCain campaign. 'They're getting killed on the air.'"
INDIANA: Sarah Palin will hit Indianapolis Friday.
NEVADA: A Las Vegas Review-Journal poll shows Obama up 47%-45%. In August, McCain led by seven.
NORTH CAROLINA: McCain is making his first campaign stop in Tar Heel State since May. "McCain, who will appear at Cape Fear Community College in Wilmington, is trying to win over many of the conservative Democrats who have cast their ballots for Republicans in the past. His visit follows a similar one in Greenville last week by his vice presidential running mate, Sarah Palin. ‘The demographics of Eastern North Carolina is that it has a lot of working-class white voters,’ said Peter Francia, a political science professor at East Carolina University. ‘Republicans have an opportunity to win those and have proven that in past elections.’â€
CONTINUED >>
Yesterday, Biden went after the McCain campaign for the "personal attacks" he says is being
tossed at Obama. "Appearing at a boisterous rally near his childhood home, Biden said John McCain's campaign is desperate to change the subject from the financial crisis that has wiped out many Americans' college and retirement savings. He said McCain has resorted to making ‘ugly inferences’ about Obama in the waning days of the campaign. ‘Every single false charge, every single baseless accusation is a simple attempt to get you to focus on something other than what's affecting your family and your country,’ said Biden, who was cheered by some 6,000 people packed into a sports arena in the blue-collar city where he lived until he was 10."
Both Clintons joined Biden at the rally. "Mr. Clinton, in brief remarks at the beginning of the program, spoke as much about his wife as about the Obama-Biden ticket. People close to Mr. Clinton say he remains bitter about suggestions by Mr. Obama's supporters that he incited racial animosity during the primaries in support of his wife's candidacy. Mr. Obama has been sparing in his use of the former president as a campaign surrogate, although Mr. Clinton left Scranton immediately after speaking to campaign for Mr. Obama in Virginia, a state, Mr. Clinton noted, that had not gone Democratic in a presidential contest for 40 years.â€
â€Mr. Clinton said Mrs. Clinton had already made 50 appearances on behalf of Mr. Obama. ‘She has not only done more to support him than any runner-up in the Democratic primary process in my lifetime,’ he said, ‘she has done more than all the other runners-up combined.’â€
CONTINUED >>
As we noted last week, this was bound to happen: Quite a few Republicans have decided to do some public backseat driving. “‘He has to make the case that he's different than Bush and better than Obama on the economy,’ said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, one of more than a dozen prominent Republicans who in interviews during the past week expressed concern over the course of McCain's bid. ‘If he doesn't win that case, it's all over, and it's going to be a very bad year for Republicans.’â€
â€Several Republicans, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid angering McCain, said the campaign should have sought to plant doubts about Obama's associations with 1960s-era radical William Ayers and others months ago, rather than waiting until the campaign's final weeks. Doing so now, they said, makes the 72-year-old McCain come off as angry, grouchy and desperate, playing into Democrats' hands. Rather, these Republicans said, McCain needs to strike a balance in his tone -- appearing presidential while also questioning Obama's readiness to serve and judgment to lead. And, several said McCain should close the campaign on an honorable note. ‘He doesn't need an attack strategy, he needs a comeback strategy,’ said Alex Castellanos, a longtime national GOP media consultant who worked for McCain primary rival Mitt Romney.
The Sunday New York Times: After a turbulent week that included disclosures about Gov. Sarah Palin and signs that Senator John McCain was struggling to strike the right tone for his campaign, Republican leaders said Saturday that they were worried Mr. McCain was heading for defeat unless he brought stability to his presidential candidacy and settled on a clear message to counter Senator Barack Obama. Again and again, party leaders said in interviews that while they still believed that Mr. McCain could win over voters in the next 30 days, they were concerned that he and his advisers seemed to be adrift in dealing with an extraordinarily challenging political battleground and a crisis on Wall Street.â€
CONTINUED >>
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