October 11, 2008

Open Left:: A 2.2% McCain lead is greater than a 13.8% Obama Lead

Consider this map, from tonight's Washington Post:

2008 Elections - Full coverage of presidential, congressional and gubernatorial races | washingtonpost.com

Yep. The Post says that 168 electoral votes are "leaning Democratic," that 174 electoral votes are "leaning Republican," and that 196 electoral votes are in swing or battleground states.

Let us turn the microphone over to Chris Bowers:

Open Left:: A 2.2% McCain lead is greater than a 13.8% Obama Lead: The Washington Post maintains a webpage titled "Political Landscape 2008." This webpage has been updated recently enough to reflect Obama's 13.8% polling lead in Pennsylvania, a trend that uses polls released as recently as Wednesday. On this webpage, the Washington Post collects recent polling data, and then declares a state to either be a "battleground," or leaning toward one party or the other. Here are some of their polling averages and diagnoses:

Obama +13.8%: Battleground state (PA)
Obama +10.4%: Battleground state (NH)
Obama +10.0%: Battleground state (NJ)
Obama +9.5%: Battleground state (IA)
Obama +9.0%: Battleground state (OR)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MN)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MI)
Obama +8.8%: Battleground state (WI)
Obama +7.3%: Battleground state (NM)
McCain +6.8%: Leaning Republican (GA)
Obama +5.1%: Battleground state (VA)
Obama +4.0%: Battleground state (CO)
McCain +3.8%: Leaning Republican (IN)
Obama +3.5%: Battleground state (OH)
Obama +3.1%: Battleground state (FL)
Obama +3.0%: Battleground state (NV)
McCain +2.2%: Leaning Republican (WV)

Notice anything wrong with this list? Could it perhaps be that any state where McCain leads, no matter his margin, is defined as "Leaning Republican?" Could it be that states where Obama leads by 7.3%-13.8% are defined as "battleground states," while states where McCain leads by 2.2%-6.8% are defined as "leaning Republican." Does the uneven math in this strike anyone as problematic?

Bowers is wrong: Missouri, where McCain leads by 0.4%, is classified as a swing or a battleground state. Not every state where McCain leads, no matter his margin, is defined as "Leaning Republican." One such state is not.

I would say that this is part of the Washington Post death spiral watch. But the Washington Post is not in a death spiral. It has crashed and burned.

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

THE AMERICAN PRESS CORPS IS WROSE THAN HILTER!!!11!!

Not really. But the media death spiral watch continues, led by the Politico.

You remember Paul Krugman's joke--that if Bush said the world was flat, reporters would write "opinions on shape of earth differ"?

Now we have Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin of the Politico encountering McCain saying "the earth is flat." And what do they do? They agree:

Exclusive: McCain to unveil more economic policies - Mike Allen and Jonathan Martin: As part of a plan to reinvigorate his flagging campaign, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is considering additional economic measures aimed directly at the middle class that are likely to be rolled out this week, campaign officials said. Among the measures being considered are tax cuts – perhaps temporary – for capital gains and dividends, the officials said...

Capital gains and dividend tax cuts are simply not "economic measures aimed directly at the middle class": the middle class doesn't collect capital gains, or dividends, in any material amount. Indeed, that's what makes you middle class--that even though you have a fair or a good income you work for it.

But there is not even a token "some Democrats say that dividend and capital gains tax cuts have no direct effect on the middle class" in ths story. McCain says the earth is flat--and the reporters swallow it whole.

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

Atlantic Monthly Death Spiral Watch (Clive Crook Edition)

Can anybody tell me why Clive Crook would find anything written by right-wing hack Michael Barone even "somewhat" persuasive, let alone this?...

Clive Crook: The economy and the campaigns: When I read this piece of a few days ago by Michael Barone, arguing that "the old rule that economic distress moves voters toward Democrats doesn't seem to be operating," I found it somewhat persuasive. He argued that blame for the crisis cannot easily be pinned on Republicans alone, and that voters may fear that taxes will rise faster under Obama than they would under McCain (regardless of the fact that Obama is promising more tax relief for most Americans than McCain), which in turn would be more bad news for the economy...

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

And from Josh Micah Marshall:

Talking Points Memo | They've Still Got the Sludge: As every day brings new instances of McCain-Palin crowds denouncing the Democratic nominee as a "terrorist" or "traitor" and in some cases even calling for his blood, Michael Barone bemoans the "Coming Obama Thugocracy." If the American right has lost its electoral edge and standing with the public at large, it has not lost its telltale imperviousness to irony. In many ways it seems Barone is settling in to be one of the spokesman of the high-brow version of the revanchist paranoid right we're seeing on display in many of those McCain rallies.


More words of wisdom from Michael "I Am So Embarrassing They Took My Name Off the Shorenstein Center" Barone:

John McCain Had the Advantage Several Times This Election, and Fate Took It Away: [T]hree developments changed the shape of the race, to the benefit of Republicans. First, John McCain clinched the Republican nomination early.... Second, the success of the surge strategy in Iraq managed to penetrate through a media blackout to the voting public.... Third, $4-a-gallon gasoline converted voters from opposing offshore oil drilling to supporting it. McCain nimbly switched.... The credit crisis in the last two weeks of September raised an issue that has, so far at least, helped Obama.... McCain's "suspension" of his campaign and return to Washington [did not] help him. Democrats said he broke up a deal, though none had been made...

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis says that a deal was made, and that McCain blocked it.


McCain and Palin Have an Opportunity in the Frozen North: Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Washington seem to be in play now.... Net advantage to McCain: 40 electoral votes.... The obvious explanation, and not just for Alaska, is Sarah Palin. My working hypothesis is that Palin has boosted McCain in rural/small town areas of the Frozen North up toward the levels of support that George W. Bush won there.... The Frozen North, as I've defined it, is also largely coincident with Germano-Scandinavian America, the northwestern quadrant of the nation heavily settled by German and Scandinavian immigrants in the second half of the 19th century and the first decades of the 20th century, about which I've written before.... Before the two conventions this year, John McCain was running far behind George W. Bush's levels in the Frozen North.... Palin's rural/small town background, her hockey mom status, even her Fargo-like accent make her a figure rural/small town voters in the Frozen North can identify with. McCain's selection of her made him seem more their kind of American. The numbers seem pretty clear on this...

No comment necessary.


Obama's Acceptance Speech Hit Some High Notes, but His Themes Won't Hold Up: First, a trivial point. The temple stage set at Invesco Field was obviously a knockoff of the Pergamon Altar in the quite wonderful Pergamon Museum in Berlin, put together by Middle East history academicians (when Germany had the best of them) in the early 20th century. Did Barack Obama have time in his visit to Berlin (when he didn't have time to fly to see the wounded American soldiers in Ramstein) to visit the Pergamon Museum? Just asking.... [T]he major themes of Obama's speech... may not be sustainable. McCain = Bush: There are too many instances... to the contrary. Economic distress: But would raising taxes on high earners and raising protectionist walls alleviate it? Obama's campaign tried to insert more "granular" descriptions of what an Obama government (and Democratic Congress) would do. But are they credible? And finally, Obama's attempt to rule out of bounds any suggestions that he is not "patriotic." Why should we ignore his 20-year association with his preacher (and inspiration for the title of his 2005 book), who proclaims, "God damn America!"? Why should we ignore his association with the unrepentant Weather Underground bomber terrorist William Ayers?...

No comment necessary.


Are Democrats Destined to Lose After an Eight-Year Republican Presidency? - Michael Barone (usnews.com): The rule that a party has a hard time winning a third presidential term is one of those political science rules that seem less ironclad after close inspection. Hubert Humphrey nearly won the popular vote in 1968 despite the debacle of the Democratic Party that year (although, noting the Democrats' decline from 61 percent in 1964 to 43 percent in 1968, Humphrey's intraparty opponent Eugene McCarthy said he would take credit for the last drop of 1 percent if Humphrey and Johnson had taken credit for the other 17 percent). Gerald Ford would have been elected (without winning the popular vote) if he had gotten about 12,000 more votes in Ohio in 1976. Al Gore did win the popular vote nationally in 2000, even if you believe as I do that Florida did indeed vote for George W. Bush; 1,000 or so votes the other way there, and Gore would have been president...

Since 1945: Losers after two (or more) terms: Gore 2000, Bush 1992, Ford 1976, Humphrey 1968, Nixon 1960, Stevenson 1952. Winners after two (or more) terms: Bush 1988, Truman 1948. That's six to two. This is one of those political science rules-of-thumb that seems not less but more convincing after close inspection.


In Defense of Lobbyists - Michael Barone (usnews.com): Lobbying is as American as apple pie, going back to colonial times. The Rev. Increase Mather lobbied in London for a new charter for Massachusetts. Benjamin Franklin was the colonial agent—lobbyist—for Pennsylvania and other colonies.... [W]hen Congress writes laws and the executive branch writes regulations that channel vast flows of money—and laws and regulations that have vast moral implications—citizens affected by those words are going to try to make sure they're written the way they want. They're going to hire the best people they can find to... help lawmakers understand how the words they write will affect "real Americans."... Yes, K Street is not perfect. Old, entrenched interests tend to be well represented. New and growing industries and morally motivated constituencies that are unorganized tend to be underrepresented.... Not much of this will change in a McCain or Obama administration. The campaigns are embarrassing themselves now by stigmatizing lobbyists...

I will only observe that Increase Mather and Benjamin Franklin are better characterized as ambassadors from representative bodies than as "lobbyists."


Palin Will Be Welcomed by Social and Economic Conservatives: John McCain has chosen Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential candidate. This obviously undercuts his theme of experience, just as Barack Obama's choice of Joe Biden undercut, at least marginally, his theme of change. Palin is just in her second year as governor.... Foreign policy experience? Well, Alaska is the only state with a border with Russia. And it is the only state with territory, in the Aleutian Islands, occupied by the enemy in World War II. On the other hand, my recollection is that Geraldine Ferraro, who had far less experience especially in foreign policy than George H. W. Bush, held her own in the 1984 vice presidential debate...

A comment by Michael Barone:

Strickland Is Not Qualified to Be Obama’s Vice President, and He Knows It: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland... has simply not had the experience needed to be president or to be one heartbeat away from being president.


The Economy Isn’t as Bad as We Think: Things are a lot better in America than most Americans think. Or so argues Gregg Easterbrook in today's Wall Street Journal. I've written along similar lines myself. By any historic standards, the American economy is in pretty good shape and living standards are at an all-time high. So how to explain the sour mood? Over the last quarter-century, we've had low-inflation economic growth more than 90 percent of the time. That period covers the entire adult lifetime of the median-age voter. We've gotten so used to good times that we've forgotten what bad times are really like. The one thing I'd disagree with Easterbrook on is his comments, obligatory in some quarters, that the war in Iraq is going badly. He ought to take a look at Charles Krauthammer's column today. I suspect that Easterbrook, like many who have opposed the Iraq war, has simply not been taking in the good news that has been widely presented by now by mainstream media...

No printable comment possible.


Michael Barone: Now comes Belmont Club blogger Richard Fernandez with a Pajamas Media blog post suggesting, though not quite charging, that Obama's changes in position were prompted by concern for his longtime patron and friend Tony Rezko, who sought a contract to build a $150 million power plant in Iraqi Kurdistan with some help from a couple of Chicago-based Iraqi-Americans. It's a story that is, I think, worth the attention of investigative journalists...

No printable comment possible.


Michael Barone: [F]acts are undermining the Democratic narrative that has dominated our politics since about the time Hurricane Katrina rolled into the Gulf coast.... Anbar and Basra and Sadr City have been pacified, Prime Minister Maliki has led successful attempts to pacify Shiites as well as Sunnis, and the Iraqi parliament has passed almost all of the "benchmark" legislation.... I can remember how opponents of the Vietnam War simply tuned out news of American success when at Richard Nixon's orders Gen. Creighton Abrams pursued a new strategy.... [T]he rejection of the Republicans in the 2006 elections was a verdict on competence more than ideology.... But in the 19 months since November 2006, some important facts have changed...

No printable comment possible.


Housing, the Subprime Mortgage Crisis and the Enduring Resilience of the U.S. Economy - Michael Barone (usnews.com): For guidance in my thinking, I have come to look to my American Enterprise Institute colleague Peter Wallison, whose latest long paper is titled, "For Financial Regulation, the Era of Big Government Really Is Over." Wallison notes that for all the financial roilings, the "real economy" keeps rolling along. "The picture this suggests is of a globalized economy that is far more flexible, diverse, nimble and robust than most observers would have imagined."... Wallison's third point is that "financial innovations are making private risk management more effective than government regulation." He points especially to credit default swaps that enable private parties to slough off risk onto other private parties. Trying to set up a regulatory mechanism to achieve the same goals, he argues, would be impossible and would almost certainly have unfortunate side effects.... If the smart and highly compensated people in financial institutions can't always [make good bets], despite the strongest incentives to try, why do we think that even the smartest government regulators... can do so?...

No printable comment possible.

Atlantic Monthly Death Spiral Watch (Yet Another Marc Ambinder Edition)

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

Marc Ambinder: moron or liar? Marc Ambinder writes:

: Obama does not take a position on whether McCain and Palin are inciting hatred...

Here's what the Obama campaign said:

Senator Obama does not believe that John McCain or his policy criticism is in any way comparable to George Wallace or his segregationist policies.  But John Lewis was right to condemn some of the hateful rhetoric that John McCain himself personally rebuked just last night, as well as the baseless and profoundly irresponsible charges from his own running mate that the Democratic nominee for President of the United States 'pals around with terrorists.'  As Barack Obama has said himself, the last thing we need from either party is the kind of angry, divisive rhetoric that tears us apart...

If that is not a declaration that Sarah Palin--and the McCain campaign that assigns her missions--is inciting hatred, I do not know what a declaration that Sarah Palin is inciting hatred would be.

I don't care to speculate on why Marc Ambinder doesn't want to do his job. I simply note the fact: Marc Ambinder doesn't want to do his job.

John McCain: Desperate, Despicable, Dishonest, Dishonorable, and without the Character We Need in a President

From the Obama campaign:

Obama Campaign: Sen. Obama does not believe that John McCain or his policy criticism is in any way comparable to George Wallace or his segregationist policies.

But John Lewis was right to condemn some of the hateful rhetoric that John McCain himself personally rebuked just last night, as well as the baseless and profoundly irresponsible charges from his own running mate that the Democratic nominee for president of the United States ‘pals around with terrorists.’

As Barack Obama has said himself, the last thing we need from either party is the kind of angry, divisive rhetoric that tears us apart at a time of crisis when we desperately need to come together. That is the kind of campaign Sen. Obama will continue to run in the weeks ahead.

And one of Ta-Nehisi Coates's commenters writes:

sgwhiteinfla: I don't think I have ever been ANY prouder of Barack Obama than the moment on MSNBC when they read his statement and he said that John Lewis was "absolutely right". I admit I was a little nervous that John McCain with his rhetoric might push Obama in a direction of trying to keep his nose clean and distancing himself from John Lewis. But I would have lost TONS of respect for Obama if he had done that and I don't think he would have ever looked the same to other black men either. As a black man I recognize and realize EXACTLY what John McCain is trying to do. I wrote an amaturish post about it on daily kos but the tone of it was real.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/10/75721/137/415/626075

It's evident to me that its not really the muslim or terrorist angle John McCain is shooting for. Those goals are too high. He simply wants to muddy the waters enough so that you see him as a typical N word. Its a disgrace and its dangerous and personally I am glad somebody called him on it.

In closing let me point out that on Rick Warren's Saddleback forum John McCain said John Lewis woudl be one of the three wisest people he would get advice from if elected president. Now I wasnt buying that and a subsequent interview that Motherjones.com did with Representative Lewis confirmed that even though they have been in Congress together for over 20 years, John McCain has NEVER sought John Lewis out for advice on any matter. I am sure he never asked him about whether Arizona should recognize MLK jr.s birthday. (yes I am still heated about that). But I say all of that to say that in the first instance that John McCain had to receive some advice from John Lewis, instead of heeding it he instead tried to throw the man under the bus. If anybody needed anymore proof that John McCain is a liar and a hypocrite I think this should be all you need!

And the few remaining grownup Republicans weigh in:

Recent Comments on McCain Campaign Rhetoric:

Former Top McCain Strategist John Weaver: “As A Party, We Should Not And Must Not Stand By As The Small Amount Of Haters In Our Society Question Whether He Is As American As The Rest Of Us.” “John Weaver, McCain’s former top strategist, said top Republicans have a responsibility to temper this behavior…’We should take that agenda on in a robust manner. As a party we should not and must not stand by as the small amount of haters in our society question whether he is as American as the rest of us. Shame on them and shame on us if we allow this to take hold.’” [Politico.com, 10/10/08]

Former Republican Michigan Governor William Milliken Asked “Who Is John McCain?” And Said “He’s Not The McCain I Endorsed. … His Campaign Has Become Rather Disappointing To Me.” “But, now, who is John McCain? That's what William Milliken, former Republican governor of Michigan and a supporter of McCain in the party primaries this year, is asking about a candidate who, in Milliken's view, appears to have lost his way in this fight for the White House. ‘He is not the McCain I endorsed,’ Milliken, reached at his Traverse City home on Thursday, told the Grand Rapids Press for today's editions. ‘He keeps saying, 'Who is Barack Obama?' I would ask the question, 'Who is John McCain?' because his campaign has become rather disappointing to me.’ ‘I'm disappointed in the tenor and the personal attacks on the part of the McCain campaign, when he ought to be talking about the issues.’” [Chicago Tribune, 10/10/08]

Republican Rep. Ray LaHood Said Palin Should Cool Her Rhetoric Toward Obama. “Republican Rep. Ray LaHood of Illinois said Friday that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin should cool her rhetoric directed at Barack Obama. ‘This doesn't befit the office that she's running for. And frankly, people don't like it,’ LaHood said during an interview on WBBM, a Chicago radio station. Palin has accused Obama of ‘palling around with terrorists’ and of putting ‘political ambitions in front of doing what's right for our troops.’” [Politico, 10/10/08]

WSJ -- “Some McCain Campaign Officials Are Becoming Concerned About The Hostility That Attacks Against Sen. Obama Are Whipping Up Among Republican Supporters.” “Top McCain campaign officials are grappling with how far to go with negative attacks on Sen. Barack Obama in the final weeks of what is turning into a come-from-behind effort. Sen. John McCain has allowed a series of increasingly harsh broadsides in new campaign ads and in speeches by his wife, Cindy, and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin. But the Arizona Republican has rejected pleas from some advisers to launch attacks focusing on Sen. Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Some McCain campaign officials are becoming concerned about the hostility that attacks against Sen. Obama are whipping up among Republican supporters. During an internal conference call Thursday, campaign officials discussed how the tenor of the crowds has turned on the media and on Sen. Obama.” [Wall Street Journal, 10/10/08]

John McCain: Desperate, Despicable, Dishonest, Dishonorable, and without the Character We Need in a President - Steven Waldman

John McCain, August 2008:

Saddleback Forum: WARREN: This first set of questions deals with leadership and the personal life of leadership. The first question, who are the three wisest people that you know that you would rely on heavily in an administration?

MCCAIN: First one, I think, would be General David Petraeus, one of the great military leaders in American history, who took us from defeat to victory in Iraq, one of the great leaders (inaudible). Fourth of July a year ago, Senator Lindsay Graham and I were in Baghdad. Six hundred and eighty-eight brave young Americans, whose enlistment had expired, swore in reenlistment to stay and fight for freedom. Only someone like General David Petraeus could motivate someone like that.

I think John Lewis. John Lewis was at the Edmund Pettis Bridge, had his skull fractured, continued to serve, continues to have the most optimistic outlook about America. He can teach us all a lot about the meaning of courage and commitment to causes greater than our self- interest...

John Lewis, October 2008:

Jonathan Martin: "What I am seeing reminds me too much of another destructive period in American history," Lewis said in a statement issued today for Politico's Arena forum.  "Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin are sowing the seeds of hatred and division, and there is no need for this hostility in our political discourse....

George Wallace never threw a bomb," Lewis noted.  "He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who were simply trying to exercise their constitutional rights. Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed on Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama..."

John McCain, October 2008:

I am saddened that John Lewis, a man I've always admired, would make such a brazen and baseless attack on my character and the character of the thousands of hardworking Americans who come to our events to cheer for the kind of reform that will put America on the right track.... I call on Senator Obama to immediately and personally repudiate these outrageous and divisive comments that are so clearly designed to shut down debate 24 days before the election. Our country must return to the important debate about the path forward for America...

Added to My Calendar...

The Mortgage Meltdown, the Economy, and Public Policy: A Two-Day Berkeley-UCLA Symposium, October 30-31 2008, Cal Alumni House, U.C. Berkeley.

New York Times Death Spiral Watch (Sheryl Gay Stolberg Edition)

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps? Could somebody please ask Shery Gay Stolberg:

Why anybody should possibly be interested in the opinions of Mark Cross, Dru Van Steenberg, and David Guernsey--all some of several small-business owners who met with Mr. Bush? Why she would possibly write that "Mr. Bush... is convinced he is doing the right thing on the economy" when there is no evidence that Bush is doing anything on the economy--when it looks as though Bernanke and Paulson have been very careful to make sure that he has nothing to do with what they do on the economy? Why she would possibly write that Bush "was able to persuade a skeptical Congress to pass a $700 billion financial rescue package" when nobody can point to a single member of congress who was persuaded by Bush? Why she would possibly believe that Jack Danforth would tell her the truth about how Mr. Bush seemed at a closed-door meeting in Missouri?

The Bush administration has gotten Sheryl Gay Stolberg's number:

“This is typical New York Times nonsensical pseudo-analysis,” Tony Fratto, the deputy White House press secretary, said in an e-mail message.

John McCain: Desperate, Despicable, Dishonest, Dishonorable, and without the Character to Be President

Outsourced to Matt Yglesias:

Matthew Yglesias » Alaska Inquiry Concludes Palin Abused Powers: The very first time I ever heard Sarah Palin’s name floated as a potential VP was on Morning Joe. Andrea Mitchell immediately responded that Palin was the subject of an active abuse of power investigation, so she was out. Everyone seemed to agree with that, and the conversation moved on. Sounded sensible enough to me. But within days she was John McCain’s choice. And now we see: “Gov. Sarah Palin abused the powers of her office by pressuring subordinates to try to get her former brother-in-law, a state trooper, fired, an investigation by the Alaska Legislature has concluded.”

Long-Term Consequences of Regulatory Arbitrage

From Justin Fox:

Justin Fox: Why Treasury won't explicitly insure all bank debts: This From the FT:

Officials have reviewed the nuclear option of providing an Irish-style sovereign guarantee for all US bank deposits and many or all categories of bank debt as a means of restoring banks’ access to private funds. But they fear that providing formal guarantees only for banks would trigger the implosion of financial firms that compete with them, producing massive disorderly flows of funds across the financial sector. So they hope to rely on implicit guarantees instead.

Great, another implicit guarantee! We know how well the last one of those worked out.

Update: And another thing: If you borrow short and lend long, you're effectively a bank. It's becoming ever less clear to me what justification there is for nonbank borrow-short-lend-long-institutions other than regulatory arbitrage.

Not just "effectively" a bank. You are a bank. Not until the twentieth century did we have organizations that borrowed short and invested long that did not call themselves "banks." The emergence of non-bank banks has always been the result of attempts at regulatory arbitrage.

Peter Fisher Is Alarmed

Justin Fox reports:

Justin Fox: Peter Fisher says Hank Paulson needs to be quicker: Peter Fisher used to run the open market desk at the New York Fed. Then he was Under Secretary of the Treasury during the Paul O'Neill years. Now he's co-head of fixed income at BlackRock, the firm that's managing those $29 billion in Bear Stearns assets the Fed took on back in March. So you could say he's kinda plugged in. Here's what he said in a Business Week interview with Maria Bartiromo (it was posted a couple of days ago but I just noticed it):

They've got to help sort out the institutions that are going to be survivors and those that aren't. One of the problems has been that when you give a speech or announce that all the banks in America have got to raise capital, you're pre-announcing dilution, and that doesn't do much for the existing equity owner's confidence. It makes them run for the exits. So I think if banks are going to raise capital, you've got to do it really quickly. Goldman Sachs raised capital in a heartbeat. You don't threaten dilution and therefore upset your shareholders. The other thing is that the authorities have got to close those firms that are not going to be survivors as quickly as possible. We can't wait around for consolidation.

This seems to now be a consensus view now among economists, Wall Streeters and a lot of policymakers in Washington. So why's it taking so long to happen? My first thought is that it's just hard to get everything lined up and figure out who lives and dies and the like. You can't do it in a day or two. But I can't shake the feeling that there's been at least a little bit of foot-dragging about this on Hank Paulson's part. Is it that he sees such triage as admitting failure? Or is he having trouble persuading bank executives that we've reached this point? Or has he had trouble persuading President Bush? Or does he just really really need a nap?

One characterization I have heard is that the Fed, the Treasury, and major U.S. financial institutions are "having a bar fight on the Titanic."

Barack Obama Is Likely to Make a Very Good President Indeed

Outsourced to Mark Kleiman and Jed Lewison

The Reality-Based Community: Obama was prepared: art of the reason the current wave of slime doesn't seem to be working is that it's just too gross. Part of the reason is that the situation is just too dire. But part of the reason is that Obama saw the flood coming and built some levees. Like a good Boy Scout, he was prepared.

This page contained an embedded video. Click here to view it.

Obama got a load of crap about the "dollar bills" remark at the time, even though McCain's video with Obama's face on the $100 had already come out. It cost him something in the polls. But that speech helped "poison the well." It's not an accident that the story this week has been less Ayers than McCain's over-the-top attacks about Ayers. That's the difference between a successful and an unsuccessful hit: if the press and the public choose to attend to the making of the charge rather than the charge itself, half its potency is lost, like a fairy-tale monster that disappears when you call it by its true name.

Maybe there's a more valuable characteristic in a President than the ability to take sensible precautions now against threats that will predictably arise but aren't yet visible. But I can't think of one.

New York Times Death Spiral Watch (Yet Another David Brooks Edition)

Michael Berube speaks to conservatives:

[Y]ou could take poor flailing David Brooks as a model.  One day after this humble blog suggested that high-end conservative pundits will slurp down any old slop they’re fed by the party, Brooks was slopping out this review of Sarah Palin’s debate performance:

this debate was about Sarah Palin. She held up her end of an energetic debate that gave voters a direct look at two competing philosophies. She established debating parity with Joe Biden. And in a country that is furious with Washington, she presented herself as a radical alternative. By the end of the debate, most Republicans were not crouching behind the couch, but standing on it. The race has not been transformed, but few could have expected as vibrant and tactically clever a performance as the one Sarah Palin turned in Thursday night...

Only a week later, having realized to his horror that writing columns like this will soon deprive him of dinner-party conversation with sane people, Brooks has decided to call Palin a “fatal cancer to the Republican party.” Now that’s the way to throw someone under the couch, folks—if you want to maintain some sense of self-respect as a Serious Person.

Here is Brooks:

David Brooks: [Sarah Palin] represents a fatal cancer to the Republican party. When I first started in journalism, I worked at the National Review for Bill Buckley.... He thought it was important to have people on the conservative side who celebrated ideas, who celebrated learning. And his whole life was based on that, and that was also true for a lot of the other conservatives in the Reagan era. Reagan had an immense faith in the power of ideas. But there has been a counter, more populist tradition, which is not only to scorn liberal ideas but to scorn ideas entirely. And I'm afraid that Sarah Palin has those prejudices. I think President Bush has those prejudices...

Every time the New YorK Times publishes a column by David Brooks, a fairy has its wings torn off by a predator and dies of blood loss.

John McCain, Dishonest and Dishonorable, Does Not Have the Character to Be President

Outsourced to Mark Kleiman:

The Reality-Based Community: OK, I give up: Rick Davis is now bragging that John McCain "blew up" the bailout package that John McCain blamed Barack Obama for not supporting vehemently enough.

As Orwell once said, this doesn't even have the relationship to the truth that an ordinary lie has.

Explanations:

Davis is stupid. Davis thinks the voters are stupid. Davis thinks the press will never get around to reporting the contradiction. The McCain campaign is decompensating under pressure. This isn't politics; this is performance art.

Decompensating?

October 10, 2008

John McCain: Dishonest and Dishonorable

John McCain lacks the character to be president:

Josh Marshall: McCain Goes After Michelle ...: From TPM Election Central ...

The McCain campaign is now broadening their attack on Obama's past association with William Ayers to include Michelle Obama -- even though McCain has repeatedly said spouses should be off limits during the campaign.

The attack? Bernardine Dohrn, Ayers' wife and fellow former Weatherman, went to work in 1984 for the major Chicago-based national law firm of Sidley & Austin, and three years later, Michelle joined the mega-firm as well.

That's the entire attack. We wish we were joking. But we aren't.

Read the rest of the story here.

Diamond and Kashyap on Lehman Brothers

Their conclusion now seems completely wrong:

Diamond and Kashyap on the Recent Financial Upheavals: Why did the Treasury and Fed let Lehman fail...?

In March, Bear Stearns lost its access to credit in almost the same fashion as Lehman; yet Bear was rescued and Lehman was not. Bear Stearns was bailed out... [because] the Fed had very imperfect information about what was going on at Bear... [and] Bear’s counterparties in many transactions were not prepared for the sudden demise of Bear. A Bear bankruptcy might have triggered a wave of forced selling of collateral.... Given the potential chaos that would have resulted from Bear Stearns filing for bankruptcy, the Fed had little choice but to engineer a rescue. In doing so, the Fed argued that the rescue was a rare, perhaps once-in-a-generation, event....

[I]f the government had rescued Lehman, it would have repudiated the claim that the Bear rescue was extraordinary... the Fed and the Treasury would have been admitting that they had lied or were incompetent in stabilizing the financial system — or both. It was not surprising that they drew the line at helping Lehman. Based on all the publicly available information, this was clearly the right thing to do.

The McCain Mortgage Plan: Yet Another Reason McCain Is Not Qualified to Be President

When John McCain, onstage on Tuesday night, said "It's my proposal, it's not Sen. Obama's proposal, it's not President Bush's proposal. But I know how to get America working again, restore our economy and take care of working Americans..." people were confused:

If McCain had a mortgage plan, why hadn't he offered it for inclusion in the Paulson-Dodd-Frank bill? How, in fact, was McCain's plan different from the mortgage-relief plan that Frank and Dodd had moved through congress in the summer?

By the following morning, it was clear how McCain's plan was different: it was principally a no-strings-attached present to banks that had made bad mortgage loans, and only secondarily a mortgage-relief program. My numbers suggest that the taxpayers will receive only $120 billion in mortgage value from the $300 billion to be spent on the McCain plan--with $30 billion going as a subsidy to distressed homeowners, and $150 billion going as a present to banks.

When the government gives cash to banks, there should be strings attached: the government should get a stake in cash flows, and possibly rights to control the bank in emergencies.

Other people are too polite to say what they think about the McCain mortgage plan. Seth Walls:

Congressional Republicans Have No Opinion On McCain Mortgage Plan: How seriously are Republican members of Congress treating John McCain's new $300 billion proposal for the government to buy up troubled mortgages?... Republican members of the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees... not one of which was ready to talk about the GOP presidential candidate's proposal in even the broadest terms.

"I don't think he's worked his way through it at this point," said a spokesperson for Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling. It proved to be a common theme. Sen. Judd Gregg "hasn't weighed in on that yet," his spokeswoman acknowledged, offering to provide a response later. "I have not heard him say anything about it [McCain's plan]," said a press officer for New Jersey Rep. Scott Garrett, who sits on the Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity.... [T]he editors of the National Review, who called the plan "a full bailout for lenders."... Several GOP offices said they would pass along their boss's view on McCain's plan later. We'll update this story with their their responses if we receive them.

None have.

Racism in the 2008 Political Campaign

Ed Kilgore:

Democratic Strategist: hroughout this long presidential campaign, there's been endless discussion of race as a factor.... Now, in the wake of the ongoing financial crisis, racism has entered the campaign conversation from an unexpected direction. In the fever swamps of conservatism, there's a growing drumbeat of claims that the entire housing mess, and its financial consequences, are the result of "socialist" schemes to give mortgages to shiftless black people whose irresponsibility is now being paid for by good, decent, white folks.

Some of this talk is in thinly-veiled code, via endless discussions on conservative web sites (though it spilled over into Congress during the bailout debate) attributing the subprime mortgage meltdown to the effects of the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977... aimed at fighting the common practice of mortgage "redlining" in low-income and/or minority areas.... [T]he CRA didn't require lending to unqualified applicants... CRA doesn't even apply to the non-bank lenders responsible for the vast majority of bad mortgages....

A closely associated and even more racially tinged element of the conservative narrative on the financial crisis focuses on lurid claims about the vast influence of ACORN, a national non-profit group active in advocacy work for low-income Americans. Among its many activities, ACORN has promoted low-income and minority homeownership, mainly through personal counseling. More to the point, though it's unrelated to any of the claims about ACORN's alleged role in the financial crisis, the group worked with Barack Obama back in his community organizing days on the South Side of Chicago.... Google "ACORN financial crisis" and you'll be treated to an amazingly huge number of articles and blog posts on the subject, virtually all of them from conservatives. None of them, so far as I can tell, establish that the group has had any significant involvement in mortgage decisions, mainly because most subprime loans were made in areas where ACORN activists would never set foot. ACORN is being singled out by conservatives for a leading role in the crisis simply because it's crucial to the whole CRA/Socialist/Minorities/Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/Obama narrative about the financial crisis. And that narrative is not simply all over the internet: it's common on the airwaves as well, from Lou Dobbs to an assortment of "analysts" at Fox.

While some conservatives are careful not to get too explicit about the racial underpinnings of this argument, others aren't. As usual, we can rely on Ann Coulter.... [R]ich liberals in league with shiftless minority "welfare recipients" are sticking it to Joe Sixpack. Coulter's uninhibited take seems to be closer to what we are now seeing and hearing among grassroots conservatives, whose anger is now visibly spilling onto the campaign trail, than the more circumspect "analysis" of her more "responsible" colleagues....

Perhaps it's an ironic sign of social progress that today's emerging racist stereotypes involve minorities getting behind on their mortgage payments, rather than "welfare queens" using change from their food stamps to buy vodka (the famous Ronald Reagan anecdote) or black men impregnating their girlfriends to live off those bountiful welfare payments. But it's still disgusting. As Rick Perlstein has righteously argued, it's a blood libel on people who exert no real power in this country....

I'm less inclined to blame those fist-shaking angry Main Street conservatives at McCain's rallies than the conservative "thinkers" who promote racist stereotypes as part of a broader effort to deflect responsibility anywhere, everywhere, than towards the corruption and ideological manias of their own leaders...

Steven Branchflower on Sarah Palin

http://media.adn.com/smedia/2008/10/10/16/Branchflowerreport.source.prod_affiliate.7.pdf:

I find that Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.52.110(a)... [which] provides....

[E]ach public officer holds office as a public trsut, and any effort to benefit a personal or financial interest through official action is a violation fo that trust....

I find that... Walt Monegan's refusal to fire Trooper Michael Wooten was... likely a contributing factor to his termination as Commissioner of Public Safety...

Notes to Self: What Are We Doing?

Nobody--save a few fringe academics like Casey Mulligan today and U.S. Depression-era Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon and his epigones in 1930 (that's why it is called the Great Depression)--believes in the rule of the "free market" in a financial crisis. And Sweden in 1992 is a definite precedent for what we are doing now.

But what are we doing now?

I am not sure, but I think I would put it this way:

Back in 1844 British Prime Minister Robert Peel laid down the then-consensus principle that the government had to take control of the money market in emergencies: that commitment to the "free market" went out the window in a financial crisis because both the price at which bankers could get cash and the amount of cash in the economy were too important as determinants of the welfare of the people to be left to market forces.

In 1936 John Maynard Keynes argued that that was not enough: that the government had to more-or-less comprehensively take control of the overall level of investment and related forms of spending--that they were too important as determinants of the welfare of the people to be left to market forces.

In 1963 Milton Friedman argued that if the government took control of the price at which bankers could get cash and the amount of cash in the economy at all times--not just in crises--intervened constantly to keep the money stock growing steadily--that you would never get into the kinds of situations Keynes feared in which the government had to comprehensively take control of the overall level of investment and related forms of spending. And Milton Friedman more-or-less won the argument.

Today we seem to be moving back from Milton Friedman's doctrine toward, or perhaps beyond, Keynes's. What the Federal Reserve and the Treasury seem to be saying now is that Friedman was wrong. It is not enough if the government takes control of the price at which bankers could get cash and the amount of cash in the economy at all times. In emergencies, at least, the government must also take control of the discount the market applies to other assets that are not as good as cash because they are risky--that the price of risk as well as the terms on which bankers can get cash are prices that are too important for the welfare of the people to be left to market forces. And to control the price of risk we need to control (a) the quantity of risky assets outstanding, and (b) the capital of banks. Which seems to be what we are doing.

I am not sure whether this is some kind of halfway house between Friedman and Keynes, or whether we are going beyond Keynes, or whether we are heading off in some other direction. But this appears to be where we are going.

[image]

Barack Obama Logo

"I now know it is a rising, not a setting, sun" --Benjamin Franklin, 1787

What I Am Doing

From Brad DeLong

Comment Policy: A Seminar, Not a Foodfight

I want this to be a seminar, not a foodfight. So trolling comments get deleted, usually--I don't have time to moderate this properly, but I am trying.

Comments on this comment policy are welcome here

.

J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics at U.C Berkeley, a Research Associate of the NBER, a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Chair of Berkeley's Political Economy major.


My Berkeley Schedule: Summer 2008:

It's the summer. No regular office hours. Emailing delong@econ.berkeley.edu for an appointment also produces good results.


Leigh Speakers' Bureau:

The Seventeen-Year-Old is going to college next year, which means that I need to think about making more money. (The idea that one might write checks to rather than receive checks from universities is now strange to me.) So I have signed up with the Leigh Speakers' Bureau which also handles, among many others: Chris Anderson; Suzanne Berger; Michael Boskin; Kenneth Courtis; Clive Crook; Bill Emmott; Robert H. Frank; William Goetzmann; Douglas J. Holtz-Eakin; Paul Krugman; Bill McKibben; Paul Romer; Jeffrey Sachs; Robert Shiller;James Surowiecki; Martin Wolf; Adrian Wooldridge.


Brad DeLong's Web:
Note Archive:

To be added...

.

About Brad DeLong

J. Bradford DeLong is a professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, chair of its political economy major, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and was in the Clinton administration a deputy assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury. His best work extends from business cycle dynamics through economic growth, behavioral finance, political economy, economic history, international finance to the history of economic thought and other topics.

Organizational Tools for This Weblog

Search Brad DeLong's Website

 

If You Are Interested in...

Morning Coffee Video and Audiocasts

Recent Posts

Open Left:: A 2.2% McCain lead is greater than a 13.8% Obama Lead THE AMERICAN PRESS CORPS IS WROSE THAN HILTER!!!11!! Atlantic Monthly Death Spiral Watch (Clive Crook Edition) Atlantic Monthly Death Spiral Watch (Yet Another Marc Ambinder Edition) John McCain: Desperate, Despicable, Dishonest, Dishonorable, and without the Character We Need in a President John McCain: Desperate, Despicable, Dishonest, Dishonorable, and without the Character We Need in a President - Steven Waldman Added to My Calendar... New York Times Death Spiral Watch (Sheryl Gay Stolberg Edition) John McCain: Desperate, Despicable, Dishonest, Dishonorable, and without the Character to Be President Long-Term Consequences of Regulatory Arbitrage Peter Fisher Is Alarmed Barack Obama Is Likely to Make a Very Good President Indeed New York Times Death Spiral Watch (Yet Another David Brooks Edition) John McCain, Dishonest and Dishonorable, Does Not Have the Character to Be President John McCain: Dishonest and Dishonorable Diamond and Kashyap on Lehman Brothers The McCain Mortgage Plan: Yet Another Reason McCain Is Not Qualified to Be President Racism in the 2008 Political Campaign Steven Branchflower on Sarah Palin Notes to Self: What Are We Doing? One of the Sad Things About National Review... Can't Anybody Play This Game? Fasten Your Seatbelts, Ladies and Gentlemen: A Warning from Guy Fleegman John McCain: Dishonest and Dishonorable The Baldwin-Eichengreen Little Booklet Is a Success... John Maynard Keynes Barry Eichengreen Is Optimistic in the Grauniad Sarah Palin Investigates Self, Clears Self of All Wrongdoing New York Times Death Spiral Watch (Casey Mulligan Edition) John Quiggin Is Astonished to Find Himself a Reasonable Man The Introduction to the Baldwin-Eichengreen 24-Hour Booklet Everybody Is Having a Financial Crisis Panel! As Paul Krugman Says, the Stock Market Is Not the Big Problem Added to the Pile... I Am Optimally Hedged. I Have a Defined-Benefit Pension Here at Cal Race and the Election Kerry Howley Enthusiastically Endorses Barack Obama!! Not So Fast... Paul Romer on Fundamentalists versus Realists Why We Need Health Care Reform The Worst of All Political Systems, Save for All the Others The Housing Bubble: Tail and Dog The New Way of Covering the Election McCain's Housing "Solution": A Gift from Taxpayers to Banks Economists Advise the Great and Good Meeting in Washington Can't Anybody Play This Game? The McCain Campaign Defies Belief Sidney Wine-Boig, Gus Levy, and Their Successors Gordon Brown Does Good John McCain's New Mortgage Plan Is Worse than I Had Imagined Possibly, Even Given What I Know About John McCain McCain Trumpets Endorsement From Figure Linked to William Ayres! McCain's Worst Debate Moment Evar Thirty Minutes Before the End of the Debate John McCain: Dishonest and Dishonorable Added to the Pile... John McCain: Dishonest and Dishonorable Politico Death Spiral Watch (Mike Allen Edition) John McCain and Sarah Palin: Dishonest and Dishonorable Greenspanism and Its Discontents Paul Krugman's Currency Crisis Reading List John McCain and Sarah Palin: Dishonest and Dishonorable The Federal Reserve Wades into the Commercial Paper Market John McCain, Dishonorable and Dishonest, Pals Around with Terrorists Jim Rutenberg of the New York Times Is a Mendacious Coward Washington Post Death Spiral Watch (Robert Samuelson Edition) Long Past Time to Shut the Republican Party Down for Good Stupidest Man Alive (Washington Post Death Spiral Watch) John McCain: Dishonest and Dishonorable John McCain: Dishonorable and Dishonest DeLong Smackdown Watch (Financial Crisis-Paulson Plan Edition) Other Governments Can Do This Right. Why Can't We? Jonathan Chait Single-Handedly Redeems the New Republic Gee. Ya Think? Good Luck, Neel Kashkari John McCain: Despicable, Dishonest, Dishonorable, Deceptive, and Corrupt TASER Unemployed, Plus Part Time for Economic Reasons, Plus Discouraged Workera This Weekend's Treasury-Eurodollar Spread John McCain and Sarah Palin: Dishonorable, Dishonest, Despicable GDP and GDI A Very Good Question John McCain Says That Americans Are Overinsured Washington Post Death Spiral Watch (David Broder Edition) A Jury Would Not Convict Sarah Palin of Criminal Tax Fraud James Fallows on Gwen Ifill Karma Gwen Ifill Says that She Is Incompetent Why We Campaign... McCain and Palin Reveal Their Plan to Destroy Medicare!! Impeach George W. Bush. Impeach Him Now Let's Not "Turn the Page" Away From Public Policy Issues Omaha! Palin Out Of The Loop On Decision To Pull Out Of Michigan The Economist Polls Economists: Advantage: Obama Sarah Palin Can't Name Any Vice Presidents John McCain: Dishonorable, Dishonest, Despicable, and Deranged Why Is Sarah Palin Stabbing John McCain in the Back? Six Kinds of Recycling at the University of Oregon And the Undecided Voters Say "Biden!" Publius of Obsidian Wings Also Believes that Gwen Ifill Was the Big Loser Biden's Best Moments, I Thought