December 2nd, 2008
Sage to step into the on-demand ring
News started leaking late last week that Sage, the UK’s largest software company, will release an on-demand accounting application called SageLive aimed at the SMB market. Details are sketchy beyond a blog post by competitor KashFlow but it seems the company is finally getting serious about the on-demand space after many years of false starts:
It’s totally different to anything I’ve ever seen from them before. It’s all in AJAX (posting to a Sage 50 database as the backend) and has a very nice interface. If it wasn’t for the Sage name in the top right-corner you’d be forgiven for mistaking it for the work of a cutting-edge Israeli start up.
Author Duane Jackson both praises what he saw and puts it down in equal measure. For me, the most damning indictment is:
One of the first things I try with a new accounting product is to create an invoice. I couldn’t quickly work out how to with SageLive - it’s definitely lacking the intuitiveness of KashFlow and other web-based apps. It suffers from the same problem as all of Sages products - it’s obviously designed by people that have never run a small business. It looks really good and it sounds really good, but a scratch of the surface shows it simply doesn’t deliver the goods.
Buyers and accpountants will be the final arbiters but Sage will have to do something interesting if they are to avoid the dreaded So-SaaS moniker. Alleged to be aggressively priced at £10 ($14) per month (but what this means is as yet unknown), it seems that Sage is restricting this to the UK market. Paul Miller notes:
Duane suggests that SageLive is ‘posting to a Sage 50 database in the backend,’ which (if I understand correctly) means they’re limiting the reach of the new offering to just the UK because of the data structures used in that particular product line. If true, this would seem something of a missed opportunity for alignment of the company’s confused product mish-mash.
Without additional information, it is difficult to judge whether this is a strength of weakness but my gut feel says that anything based on proprietary or closed database systems is going to be a restrictive offering.
Sage is promising me a briefing - once we can sync calendars - at which time I will get a lot more information.
Regardless of what Sage does, this is a much needed validation of the on demand accounting market, coming as it does form the biggest name in SMB business applications outside the US. QuickBooks? You’re on notice.
December 2nd, 2008
Where to next for ERP et al? (part 1, SAP)
With a Gartner probability of 0.9, I guarantee that what follows is not how things will turn out. At least not exactly. Paul Greenberg’s post casting the enterprise CRM runes for 2009 provides the perfect springboard for something I’ve been thinking about since the middle of the year. Where the heck are SAP, Oracle and Microsoft going with their enterprise businesses and what does 2009 hold for them? More important, what do they need to do?
Paul is another Irregular and what he doesn’t know about CRM could be written on the back of Marc Benioff’s (Salesforce.com, CEO) hand. I spoke with Paul last week to get his unspoken bead on what the future holds and to bounce thoughts. This is important because regardless of the way anyone slices and dices the market, managing the customer relationship is going to take on a whole new meaning in 2009. We’re already seeing it with Oracle touting Social CRM, Microsoft focusing on its own CRM offerings and SAP reporting success in that area. But what more?
If you look at the numbers as Larry Dignan, Brian Sommer and I do each quarter you might easily conclude that the market running order in 2009 would be the same for 2009 as it has been for 2008: SAP, Oracle and Microsoft. I doubt that will change significantly but what matters in software marketing is mindshare. In that sense everything is up for grabs. That is assuming the market doesn’t collapse altogether, a prospect that isn’t out of the realms of possibility either.
In talking to Dale Vile from Freeform Dynamics, he confirmed much of what I am seeing in the market: no real panic among CXOs but a firm expectation of a significant slowdown. There are regional variations with most of the gloom in the US/UK. Both Dale and I would go much further. We believe that the market - and vendors - are in for a very nasty surprise, possibly as early as Q1 of 2009.
I believe that IT departments could find themselves in crisis as boards demand value from IT combined with more cost cutting. It is hard to see how this will pan out because unlike the last downturn, CIO/CTO’s have adjusted to shelfware problems and have little of the fat they needed to shed at the turn of the century. Their biggest problem remains the difficulty they have in communicating with the business. Many put this at the CIO’s door. The last six months have taught me the reverse. It is the business that needs to pay attention to IT. Technical people I speak with know far more about what needs to be done than their business counterparts give them credit for but are rarely given the floor with which to speak with conviction. That has to change.
If business recognizes the contribution IT can make, then the IT landscape changes and introduces a new dynamic into the sales process. I sense there is a likelihood of that happening, especially given the question marks we are seeing being placed in the value of licenses and their attendant maintenance and support costs. Mind you, if it was that simple then things might have changed a long time ago. The often toxic relationships I witness are a legacy of the past. Now is the time for the whole business to come together.
On the buy side front, Vinnie Mirchandani, Ray Wang, Frank Scavo, Brian Sommer, Mike Krigsman and myself (to name but six) are not going away anytime soon. We will continue to fight the customer corner in our own styles against an increasingly frustrated market. We’re only a few more data points in the buying decision cycle but the question remains: how much longer will buyers continue to hand over three times the license fee over a 10 year period and continue to smile while watching project continuing to fail?
Let’s start with the gorilla in the marketplace: SAP
December 2nd, 2008
Welcome to MegaTom
Tom Raftery, analyst at Greenmonk and another Irregular pinged me this morning to let me know about a new community: MegaTom. Born out of an idea from Gavin Starks and Simon Wardley, MegaTom seeks to act as the hub around which people can discuss the many green issues facing our future. If you can get past the (current) day-glo orange background, the intent is solid.
Last week, Tom explained the idea behind MegaTom to me and now outlined by Gavin Starks:
The average European creates 10 tonnes of CO2 per annum.
The average American, 20 tonnes.
To avert the dangers of Climate Change, we need to drop our CO2 production to 1 tonne per person.
Problem: What is 1 tonne of CO2? How do you visualise it?
Answer: You don’t! You change the metric. 1 tonne = 1 person’s annual CO2 production.
1 average person. 1 Tom.
Because it’s not about saving tonnes, it’s about saving everyone.
For example, a 15 minute shower is 0.1% of a Tom, driving 100 miles in a standard car is 4% of a Tom and producing 1 laptop computer is 45% of a Tom.
How many Toms have you consumed? Don’t waste your Toms.
Save Toms, not tonnes!
Think Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks or Tom Mix. It reminds me of James Governor’s notion of bit miles as a useful narrative applied to industry’s consumption of energy resources in computing. I like the concept of ‘Toms’ as a way of helping people understand an otherwise difficult topic. I look forward to seeing it applied to computing more generally.
November 25th, 2008
Breaking: SAP User Group fires CEO
The American SAP User Group is understood to have fired Steve Strout, the organization’s first full time CEO. Sources close to ASUG say that an email was sent by the ASUG board to all members suggesting that the board had become dis-satisfied with Strout’s performance and want ‘alternative leadership’ who will better further member interests.
Earlier in the year, SAP and ASUG issued a joint statement regarding the forthcoming price hike in maintenance where it appeared that ASUG was in enthusiastic support of SAP’s action. In the meantime, I have struggled to find a single customer that is happy with SAP’s proposals, although it is now understood that roll out of the price hike is contingent upon SAP meeting as yet to be agreed KPIs.
Strout’s successor has not been named. It is also understood that ASUG is concerned that its 2009 conference will see significantly fewer attendees as companies reign in travel arrangements.
November 25th, 2008
Cloud definitions and economics
Like Phil Wainewright, I attended the excellent CloudCamp in London several weeks back. Unlike Phil, I walked away with more questions than answers but with my enterprisey antenna on high alert.
Two things struck me. Rhys Jones of Royal Bank of Scotland’s assertion that while cloud computing sounds like a good idea: “We’re not going to do it - at least for the time being.” That despite Phil’s angle:
Rhys Jones of Royal Bank of Scotland, said that providing aggregation of multiple clouds was one of the key things that “cloud vendors have to get together and do for us,” adding that “a big provider could really clean up” by becoming the linchpin of cloud federation. Oh, he also foresaw increased use of SaaS by enterprises for non-critical apps, which also warmed my heart.
For Rhys, issues around risk, compliance and control figured largely in his thinking. That was echoed by a representative from Credit Suisse who added further color by quizzing Microsoft on how it plans to manage patch releases and regression testing in cloud environments. There are no clear answers today.
This will be music to the big on-premise application vendors that are wedded to a business model that demands up front licenses which aaS does not, relying instead upon an annuity model in the form of monthly fees.
The second thing that struck me is that all things aaS seem now to be associated with cloud computing. That must be horribly confusing for any decision taker. It was for me until I read today’s post by James Governor entitled:Â Three Better Ways To Tell Its not Cloud Computing?
James has been running a series on this topic, attempting to put different angles (mostly technically focused) in an effort to distill what it means to be a cloud computing environment. He captures it well when he quotes:
Staffing Software Talk takes a very hard-boiled and boiled down approach:
For those of you not already plugged into this latest addition to tech jargon, you can read more about cloud computing here. But actually I wouldn’t waste your time. If you’re over 50 just think “service bureauâ€. 30 to 49, think “Application Serviceâ€, and 20 to 30 “SAAS (Software As A Service)â€. If under 20 then cloud is everything you need in your online life - amazon, ebay, facebook, myspace, gmail.
For this simple soul, the above quote is a great way to characterize positioning which I can put another way - cloud computing is anything you want it to be as long as it’s over the Internet. That of course is facile because as speakers at CloudCamp pointed out, clouds can be internal to the enterprise. But it is indicative of the variations on a theme that seem to litter the current literature on the topic.
While definitions are always useful, I sense that if we’re not careful as an industry, we run the risk of plunging the topic into the trough of disillusionment before its time.
Putting my buyer’s hat on, I want my computing infrastructure to be available on demand at the lowest possible cost. I want to drive those baseline cost efficiencies into as many of my applications as possible, but not at the expense of sacrificing or endangering security, or my ability to run a compliant set of applications. In many scenarios and especially those that are regulated, operational code ‘ownership’ is important. Overall then, that should have me firmly leaning towards the promise of cloud computing but holding something in reserve as suggested by Rhys Jones.
My concern is that with the siren call of all things aaS rendered in the cloud, I may become unwittingly dragged into believing the ‘Cloud/s’ do/es represent a computing Utopia. That is not a proven statement by any stretch. Even Microsoft, which is pitching Azure would not go that far (as if they would anyway) because as was said at CloudCamp by Microsoft and others, these are very early days.
However, I don’t think it is too early to start articulating the business value and how that will play for both buyers and sellers. In all the discussion on this topic I don’t see that emerging clearly.
There is good reason for that because in order to get to a reasonably well understood economic description, a lot of things have to fall into place. James emphasizes standards and he is right to do so. The trouble is that history tells me standardsd is something of a sinkhole. I sincerely hope I am wrong on this occasion but I do wonder whether Simon Wardley’s vision of open standards as the essential pillar for portability and interoperability will carry the day. Back to the business.
When I read Larry Dignan’s analysis of Salesforce.com’s results I had one of those occasional financial itches that makes me want to go back in time. The comparison is with the PeopleSoft of 1997-98. That was the time it hit the $1 billion sales barrier and needed to move forward under fresh leadership. The difference was that at that time, PeopleSoft was reporting profits far healthier than Salesforce.com at about the same age. There are two crucial differences between the PeopleSoft of yore and Salesforce.com today.
November 24th, 2008
Microsoft Dynamics: solid customer stories, quietly confident
Last week I attended Microsoft’s Convergence conference in Copenhagen. This is where Microsoft’s business application customers tip up to hear what’s new and get their annual infusion of feel goodness. While there was little by way of hard news other than it putting NAV2009 into general availability, customers seem happy with the company and what it is delivering. This is the third time in succession that I’ve attended Convergence and found largely happy customers. During the keynote, Kirill Tatarinov, corporate VP Microsoft business solutions reeled off a list of customer wins, showing numbers to back up the value the company is delivering.
One that caught my eye was JJ Food Services. According to Tatarinov: “They have over 20,000 customers over in the UK, they drive over 700,000 deliveries every year, and they sell over 20 million items; a pretty significant business…They grew their business by £31 million pounds ($44 million)… And they did it without having to increase cost. Basically, their operations, and their back-office system, was able to sustain the growth of £31 million without having to add a pound to their cost, which is very significant for a company like that. Their order accuracy improved 30 percent, which obviously results in better customer satisfaction, customers didn’t have to wait for orders, and orders were much more accurate.”
I used the opportunity to capture customers on video to assess what they are getting out of the Dynamics products. If those I met are truly representative of what’s happening, then there is a significant untapped learning resource for potential customers. For instance, CRH Europe talked about how it has scaled NAV way beyond limits that were thought possible in the past. The usual limit is something around 200 concurrent users. CRH says it has tested to 500 users and anticipates going well above 750 users: ‘possibly double.’
Assuming they achieve that figure then it puts NAV firmly in the mid-tier territory usually reserved for JD Edwards and SAP’s A1S. The difference is that Microsoft is able to offer maintenance at 16%, significantly less than that available from Oracle and SAP. Jan Henk Leeuwenburg of Fokker Services explained an unusual CRM implementation that puts information needed for compliance in the hands of its customers. (see video above) In each case, the emphasis was on value.
The only significant blot on the landscape is the extent to which Microsoft is able to upgrade its customers to the new 2009 versions of Dynamics AX and NAV. Some customers want to hang back on the grounds that the new functionality is not enough to tempt them. One customer went as far as to say that issuing a new version every 24-36 months is too quick. That despite the introduction of web services and role based content included within user dashboards. In the finannce users’ dashboard for instance, Microsoft is including syndicated content from CFO.com. Tatarinov, responded with: “We are happy to continue supporting customers while they decide whether to take the upgrade.”
Elsewhere, Microsoft started to talk about doing more in vertical markets, saying that it will add broad industry specific functions. While not entirely clear on what’s in and out on the development front, it emphasized that VARs and ISVs will be left to do the deep lifting for specialized functionality needed in specific verticals. It also hinted at establishing an SAP style solutions hub: “We want to set up a marketplace in which customers and partners have confidence. We have a lot of work to do but so far, customers and partners welcome the move,” said Doug Kennedy, VP Microsoft Dynamics partners.
This was a modestly confident yet cautious Microsoft, happy to parade good customer stories. This is to be welcomed and a sharp contrast to other shows where the emphasis is often on ensuring the company’s message is not tempered by customer reality. As we move forward in an uncertain economy, these stories will become much more important to commenters and customers alike.
November 17th, 2008
Merrill Lynch downgrades SAP and Oracle
It should come as no surprise that investment research at Merrill Lynch sees downgraded assessments of both SAP and Oracle’s near terms results. In the last month, Merrill has conducted research among European CIO’s and finds that a full 40% are less bullish on IT spending than they were three months ago and that 70% expect a recession. It also says that 44% of companies are delaying spend. In a paragraph entitled ‘Most negative CIO survey ever’ lead author Raimo Lenschow says:
A first look at the data from our CIO survey conducted at the end of October and the beginning of November shows that we are getting readings that we have not seen before. These are significantly more cautious than in the last downturn when it was perceived that IT was really suffering.
For SAP, Merrill is cutting revenue projections 4% for both 2009 and 2010, chopping $180 million from its Q4 license estimate to $1.2 billion. It fears that the current spend reduction of $200 million SAP has already announced will be outstripped by the potential fall in license sale run rate. If Merrill is correct, then this will damage bottom line profit.
For Oracle, lead author Kash Rangan believes application license sales will take a full 27% hit in FY2009 with an overall license sales decline of 13-14% in 2009 and 2010. However, in drawing comparisons with the last major downturn Rangan says:
Recurring and high margin maintenance revenues, most investors already appreciate, are nearly 50%, up from 32% in FY01. No question that ORCL is in a better position this time.
In both cases, Merrill accepts it is being cautious and notes that despite market conditions, both companies are in relatively good shape.
I’m not convinced about this last part. While maintenance revenues are always seen by financial analysts as a good defense in recessionary times, they forget that recession also gives buyers a stronger bargaining position.
I’ll add to that by making what some will say is an outrageous statement. That fact SAP and Oracle have worked hard to lock in their customers does not mean that lock is permanent. If, at current rates, customers effectively pay for their software three times over a 10 year period, do both Oracle and SAP honestly believe they can get away with that forever? Forrester’s Ray Wang offers this view:
Software vendors under pressure to make margins will be forced to choose whether they are willing to take short term pain in stock valuations for long term gain in improving the vendor-client commitment or make their numbers by disenfranchising customers during a time of crisis by violating any one of the three tenants of maintenance pricing (choice, value, predictability.)
In this context I believe SAP is in the weaker position. Last week for example I listened to a very well known retail brand talking about the lack of value in moving from R/34.6 to 4.7. That company is considering re-implementing to the later EC6 offering. Any time there is a re-implementation, the door opens for alternatives and re-negotiation. Oracle on the other hand has plenty of options to trade up its customers from the smorgasbord of applications it has acquired over the last few years. While my colleague Vinnie Mirchandani bemoans the lack of progress on Oracle’s Fusion applications, I am hearing favorable reports. In competitive deals, I see it as content to nibble around SAP rather than attempt to go for the big hit. But then another SAP customer told me they are loving the BusinessObjects offerings. Confused? Imagine what it’s like for folk like me, trying to make sense of it all!
From a financial viewpoint, Oracle doesn’t have the cost base manoeuvrability that SAP has. By any measure, SAP is carrying a lot more fat. It can therefore put the brake on spend cuts if it needs to deploy resources to close deals. Oracle would almost certainly have to spend more to win those big deals at a time when it has managed its cost base rather better than SAP. That would put pressure on margins.
As we move into the next reporting season, we will get better visibility into what’s happening. My view is that this is not business as usual. I believe that whatever the new economics hold, buyers will be forced into demanding a better deal from their software providers. It only requires a determination by a relatively small number of key accounts to get the ball rolling. If that happens, then the economics of both companies could be radically affected.
November 10th, 2008
SAP’s UK users don’t get it - yet
The above video shows two interviews I made earlier today. One is with Alan Bowling, chairman SAP user group UK and Ireland. The second is with Ray Wang, VP at Forrester research.
SAP’s UK users are struggling to understand the price hike in maintenance costs. Users I spoke with at the annual SAP UK and Ireland user group conference were unanimous in their view that they don’t see value in the new offering. Reasons vary but some I spoke with want to see the core application more stable before SAP talks about upgrades and enhancements as the way to derive value.
Bowling said that while customers remain less than hapy, they are getting a better understanding of value. He is hopeful that the initiative to jointly develop KPIs against which enterprise support is measured is a first that customers should welcome. However, he admitted that defining the KPIs will not be easy: “No-one is pretending this will be easy.” Ray Wang joined with Bowling in agreeing that this is a knotty problem and that it will take time for customers to understand what the support service means for them.
My concern runs deeper. Jointly developing KPIs sounds like a noble cause and I congratulate the two sides for getting this far. However, SAP is a formidable negotiator and you can be sure that nothing will be agreed without SAP board approval. According to Forrester, only 15% of what customers pay for maintenance/support generally, goes back into value delivered. This makes maintenance a highly lucrative business. Given we are operating in times where new licenses are hard to come by, it is no surprise that the enterprise applications industry is pushing hard to get customers signed up for as high a rate as they can get. Whatever happens, SAP won’t give up profit easily, especially as it sees Oracle nudging 43% margins.
November 7th, 2008
Sign of the times
When I saw the above pic I couldn’t resist re-printing it. It captures the mood among technology company reps and buyers alike. The caption on the original is poignant:
Looks like SAP means business and is cutting back on accommodation expenses for their consultants. Every little bit helps.
So as I head to London to meet with UK SUG and hang out with Forrester’s Ray Wang, I wonder the extent to which the image will meet reality? More to the point, I wonder the extent to which UK and Irish customers are drinking from the ‘value’ Kool-Aid that Henning Kagermann, co-CEO at SAP was dishing out at this week’s Goldman Sachs conference.
Pic courtesy of Pixelbase
November 5th, 2008
sme.sap.com: be impressed
Regular readers will know I have great hopes for SAP Business ByDesign as a service, even if I am less than convinced about executive commitment. At the end of last week, a SAPper contacted me to ask if I want to check out sme.sap.com. Normally I would give this kind of thing a pass. Who cares about a vendor website fer crissakes? Right now, this is SAP’s main go-to-market platform for ByDesign so I wanted to see what’s under the covers and whether it is enough to get anyone interested in what it is offering. Bear in mind my prejudices but I give this one a qualified thumbs up.
Registration to the site is straightforward BUT you must be prepared to give them the digital equivalent of your inside leg measurement. I know many will poo-poo this but if you have more than a passing interest then you’ll go through the 5 minute pain. The system asks you to create a password but then in email sends you another. Duh? SAP - fix that. It’s dumb.
The interim password HAS to be entered very carefully as the system seems sensitive to the number of keystrokes it detects. I ended up calling customer support who were very helpful and got me past the entry gate. Message to SAP: just get rid of this nonsense. It adds an extra step, it is easy to mess up and wastes time.
Once in, the site offers almost everything a prospective buyer might need. Case studies are context sensitive and there are plenty of those in PDF format, the cost calculator gives you plenty of signposts for your general business type and the module explanations are sufficiently detailed without overwhelming you.
Many SAP watchers have been leery about the pricing, wondering how much they’d try gouge for extras. The answer? Surprisingly little. $149 per month for a minimum of 25 users remains for the suite style of your choice. ‘Efficiency’ users are quoted at $54 a month. For that extra $54, they get access to a portal with HR style self service functions, address book and the like. (see image below)
What seems to be missing is the ability to include user generated content such as company wiki, RSS and blogs of the kind you might find on an intranet replacement like Thoughtfarmer although it does include the all important learning center. If SAP takes that extra step, this would have a much better chance of full company wide adoption. It would also make the $54 a month seem much more worthwhile. At the moment, that’s at least $20 over priced. Amendment: $54 per month is per block of 5 users. (see comments) However, before running away to buy into the solution there are a couple of things you should know.
You will need professional services. SAP outlines what these might look like but it’s a cost you need to factor and which is not something that can be done with a digital wave of the hand. Second, you’ll need a payroll solution. SAP offers a partnership with ADP but the exact service level you get and the price you pay depends on the country in which you operate. You may need or want other customizing solutions but on the evidence I have seen, I would avoid this where possible.
Don’t be fooled by the ‘average’ cost per user. It is just that - an average - which seems to bring the overall price down. Remember the exact average depends entirely on your company’s use case profile. In my example of 25+30 for a services business, the number comes in at $73.62 per month but overall at $4,049 per month. If your business needs warehouse and manufacturing management then the cost goes up again.
Commenters among my colleagues have been under the impression that SAP has pretty much taken its foot off the ByDesign sales gas. That is not quite true. A SAP representative emailed me a couple of days later offering more information, a ‘try before I buy’Â setup and offering me a Webex demo. I may well take them up on that to see how SAP manages this part of the process.
What else could SAP do? It has plenty of forums experience and I would like to see a public forum where potential users can drop questions. It’s an efficient method of communications that works very well. I’m sure it wouldn’t take much to twist Jive Software’s arm on this functionality. It could also provide links to the ByDesign sections on the SAP Community Network.
So what’s the verdict? This is not your mother’s SAP go-to-market. It is a much more muted, less in your face approach. There is enough information to get me interested but I want more. I want to feel as though SAP cares and that’s why I want the community style features I mention. While case studies are great, I want to see an independent view. Where are the analyst reports? (Disclosure: Brian Sommer and I have evaluated the offering in some detail.)
It is enough to at least get me to the demo stage and if it does that for such a complex offering, then it’s a big win.
Dennis Howlett has been providing comment and analysis on enterprise software since 1991. See his full profile and disclosure of his industry affiliations.
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