Phelps v. Spitz: An Update
Now that Michael Phelps has his record eight gold medals at a single Olympiad, here’s a quick update of Friday’s post comparing Mr. Phelps’s results in the last week with Mark Spitz’s at the 1972 Olympics. Though Mr. Phelps exceeded Mr. Spitz’s medal count, by other numerical measures he was less dominant compared to his peers, a contrast made more marked by Mr. Phelps’s razor-thin margin in the 100-meter butterfly on Saturday.

Number of medals: Mr. Phelps exceeded Mr. Spitz’s seven by one, with two more men’s swimming golds available. He matched Mr. Spitz’s mark of seven world records.
Head to head: In their six common events, Mr. Spitz won by an average margin of 1.58%, compared to just 0.67% for Mr. Phelps. Mr. Spitz set world records in all six, by an average margin of 0.93% compared to the pre-Olympic records. Mr. Phelps set new marks in five of the six, for an average margin 0.75% faster than the previous standard.
Across all their events, Mr. Spitz’s average winning margin was 1.47%, compared to 0.86% for Mr. Phelps. Mr. Phelps’s new records exceeded the old by 0.7%, compared to 0.87% for Mr. Spitz.
Individual events: The above analysis includes relay events, which depend on three other swimmers. Each champion earned gold in three of these. Discard these, and Mr. Spitz has an edge in winning margin (1.44% to 1.06%) and record margin (0.58% to 0.33%).
Context: Though Beijing’s Water Cube has earned raves from swimmers and facilitated spates of new records, Munich in 1972 featured even friendlier waters. There were new records in six of eight events Mr. Spitz skipped, compared to just four of the eight completed events Mr. Phelps skipped. (The 10-kilometer freestyle is still to come.)
Mr. Phelps’s times beat the old records by an average of 0.7%. In the other eight completed swimming races, including those that didn’t feature new records, the winning time was an average of just 0.07% better than the pre-Olympics record. Mr. Spitz’s records beat the old ones by an average of 0.87%; his male counterparts beat record times by an average of 0.34%.
Summary: Mr. Spitz was slightly more dominant in his races, set a new world record in each event and outdistanced prior record holders by a wide margin. However, Mr. Phelps’s records have been slightly more impressive compared to other male winners at the same Olympics.
Phelps had a wider repertoire…swimming all four styles in two individual medleys as well as distances upto 400 m.
Why did’nt the Olympic committee invite
Mark Spitz to China to present the medals or
watch them? Other previous gold medalists
were invited…and Mark Spitz had SEVEN!
I don’t think that comparing the percentages of winning margin is valid. As you get closer to the limits of human potential, you should expect the difference in winning margin to decline.
It’s true that the world swims
faster now but Spitz crushed his opposition and would have won the 50m, if it had existed. Phelps, facing greater competition, performed accordingly, winning some close races. I think a 2008 Spitz would have
made things interesting.
This is a *really* annoying blog. It is at least 1.875% more annoying than the most annoying blog I read yesterday and stands out as being 2.863% more annoying than the average of all annoying blogs about the games.
haha, dd is funny
While I applaud Phelps’ performance in the Olympic games. It’s just impossible to compare the two. These two guys were from completely different eras.
While assessing this we might need to take into account that:
- in time, being more dominant gets harder and harder; being slightly less dominant 36 years later could be a much bigger achievement.
- the level of competitiveness in swimming nowadays could different than 36 years ago; most probably this level is higher today
- the pressure of the media in general in 2008; and the pressure on Phelps in surpassing Spitz doesn´t make it easier for him
Imo. these factors all help the insight that Phelps achievements need to be valued slightly /higher/ than those of Mr. Spitz.
Cheers,
Peter Huesken
.s. I would´ve loved to see Phelps try his luck on the 100m freestyle.
Why all this discussion? Both Spitz and Phelps are great athletes. Why must we spend so much time trying to compare them. Each is an American hero of their own time! Let’s celebrate them both.
wow eight medals i cant believe this!!
I’m with you “thecheap economist” and I must say I am with you to CBM.
These comparison of two athletes who’s performances were 36 years apart is absolutely ridiculous.
This “comparison game”is helping the media to make a sale.
This “comparison game” is something that the media has made up.
They act as if there is a medal given for the most idiotic ways to spin negativity.
Nothing that Phelp’s has done in these games can take away from the Spitz performances in the 1972 games and nothing that Spitz did back then can take away from Phelps’ performances here in 2008.
All the athletes that participate in any olympics has already obtained the “great athlete” distinction simply by making it to the Olympics to begin with - the medal’s are just icing on the cake so to speak!
Really, what this says is that in Spitz’s day the competition was not as fierce, making it easier for Spitz to win. The quality of his competitors today makes Phelps’ win MORE impressive rather than less.
(ftr) I totally agree with “Amazed”
Who cares about %’s, let’s just enjoy the moment,A win is a win and 8 GOLDS in a single games is something most of us may never see again.
In response to CBM’s “why must we spend so much time trying to compare them?” and Amazed supporting response… these both are good posts. We must compare them because media articles like this one try to invent contoversy that really doesn’t exist– just to get our attention to read their column.
Hey CBM - Neither is an American hero - They are swimmers for Pete’s sake
Try as you may, you will not be able to disect this topic. You cannot compare what Spitz did in 1972 to what Phelps has done in 2008. Training techniques and the knowledge of sport and human body that has progressed over the years cannot be compared. We did not know then, what we know now; and that knowledge and specialized training and techniques brings down race times in all sports.
If you wish to compare the two, look at their dedication to the sport. I’m sure you will find in these two, very similar dedication and commitment to the sport. If you wish to study these two, look at their mindset and thought process; as well as dedication; this is what makes a Spitz, Phelps, or Michael Jordan or Tiger Woods, or whomever is a legend/benchmark in their game.
Numbers Guy should consult with a physicist to make percentage adjustments for the fact that Spitz had no cap or goggles, and was weighed down by baggier trunks.
dumbest blog ever. Breaking records comes with diminishing returns year after year as the records approach human limitations. At some point you just run out of speed. In the test of time each althete is put up against peers who train to the same standards and methods as they do. Spitz and Phelps have two completely different training techniques because time has afforded phelps better opportunity but…those same opportunities are in the programs of his competitors.
First, Fay is Mark Spitz in disguise. It’s quite comical that he bitched about not getting invited.
Way to go Michael. Way to go Mark Spitz, who was very complimentary of Micahel Phelps. It’s sad that all too often when a new sports superstar emerges, ones from previous generations can be petty and sniping. Mark Spitz showed himself as a class act, in the same manner as Arnold and Jack when it comes to Tiger.
The matter is not comparing Phelps to Spitz which the media unfortunately is promoting to get readership (because all of the apple-orange issues of time). The focus should be comparing them against their competition and they both crushed the competition. One got 7 golds and other 8…that is splitting hairs. They dominated. Choose who you like better as a personal preference and stop the nonsense.
Spitz couldn’t have won the 50 at the 1972 Olympics because his teammate David Edgar would have kicked his behind. Edgar was the fastest 50 freestyler from that era and Spitz had never beaten him in that event.
In the final count it seems both are tied in so far first leeters of their first names are concerned. It seems M II swam faster than M I. That suggests M II is a better swimmer and an improved model.
My kid is going to be named M___ something. Rest of the name does not matter as much. The last name should start with a letter earlier than P given the trend of the better swimmer having a name that starts with P and another consonent instead of S. That and some swimming lessons should give the tike a golden start.
News Flash: Michael wants more medals and has now entered the 10K swim.
Comparing margin of victory and the margins by which Spitz and Phelps set world records is quite trivial. The fact that Phelps beat HIS OWN WR by less time than what Spitz beat his WR doesn’t mean anything.
In a number of these races, Phelps hasn’t lost in many years, and he’s still getting better. If he becomes a better sprinter and can become dominant in the 100M distance, he could easily win 10 golds in London. As a point of reference, Phelps only had 1 individual race at the 100M distance — the only race he doesn’t own the WR, and he barely won.
One last point. Phelps is still getting stronger. He’s only been weight lifting for one year and is a mere 23 years old. If he continues to get better (which he should), he’ll easily get another 7-10 Golds in London, and should get more gold four years after that. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility for him to retire with 25 gold medals.
What affect would today’s better timing mechanisms have on records of the past? Also what about the chemicals in the water? (okay, I’m just kidding with the last one)
Phelps had to swim prelims in every event where Spitz was generally one and done. Also, there were far fewer swimmers in Spitz’s era, the Eastern Bloc was doping which confuses your math issue on non-swimming events and the like, and finally, the record breaking performance of Spitz notwithstanding this era sees more folks breaking the world record in heats and finals than at any other event. Spitz won by huge margins because no one could compete with him, but few others swimming against him ever broke a record.
Different times, but both are great swimmers, not heros however.
I don’t think you can compare the pair with a difference of 36 years in the Olympics. But if Spitz had been shaven, trained like Michaed had and had the LZR suit??? Who knows?? All I know is I’d pay big money to watch THAT race.
Regarding either of them being an American Hero - I say YES! They both showed what perserverance, hardwork, dedication to your personal goals can achieve.
On a closing note - I think Phelps has gotten better with age, and I wish him the best in his future, from one Maryland homegrown boy to another
Both swimmers dominated but Spitz dominated to perfection. Spitz entered 7 events and set 7 World records winning all 7 events. Phelps needed 8 events to set 7 world records. Phelps is good but not great. 7 for 8 is only good is no one prior has done 7 for 7. Two dates after his last event Phelps is counting is millions and enjoying Peking. One day after Spitz won he was flown home under guard to the US because of the cowardly terrorist attack on the Israeli atheletes. So Spitz didn’t get his chance to bask in the Olympic limelight that Phelps is now enjoying.
Just a response to Peter Huesken’s comment that he “would´ve loved to see Phelps try his luck on the 100m freestyle”: Phelps did a flat-start 100 free at the games — he led off the 4×100 free relay, and set a new American record in doing so. Admittedly it’s not exactly the same as swimming the actual individual event, because Phelps didn’t have to swim in the relay preliminary the way he would have had to swim the preliminaries in the individual 100, but still quite impressive.
International competition is MUCH tougher today than it was in 1972. Since you are a numbers guy, consider that the U.S. swimmers (male and female) accounted for 60%, 49%, and 42% of the total swimming medals awarded in 1968, 1972, and 1976, respectively. In comparison, U.S. swimmers accounted for 29% of the total swimming medals in 2004 and 32% in 2008.
The spread in gold medals is also significant, as U.S. swimmers accounted for 72%, 59% and 50% of gold medals in 1968, 1972, and 1976, compared to 38% in both 2004 and 2008.
The point is that numbers support the argument that international competition is much greater today than in 1972.
Some people spend lot of time on useless comparisions. Absolutely no sense comparing those %s. Well who is great? MS in 70’s and MP right now. Simple and stright. Rest of the analysis is useless since those times are far apart.
Spitz wins for best moustache, hands down.
There was a book published after the 72 Olympics call “The 50 Meter Jungle” which focused on US swim team of that era. Spitz is portrayed as the Ultimate Ice Man, who psyched out opponents before the matches. Other swimmers were shaving their heads and bodys in an effort to save seconds, Spitz was so fast he raced with a mustasche and long hair. I think that the Phelps would be too afraid to race without his shower cap. Phelps is so afraid of being psyched out by other swimmers that he sits and looks mind dead as he listens to his walkman. He’s a good athelete, but not greatest. He didn’t even set a World Record in each of his races, a feat that Sptiz accomplished, but that the media seems to ignore.
Didnt phelps break a number of his own WRs? Where he did, the relative margin seems much less relavent.
What about the fact that Phelps also won 6 gold medals in the previous Olympics whereas Spitz only came back to win 2.
I think the statistics say it all — the greatest swimmer is still Mark Spitz….he set a WR in each of his races (at the time he didn’t enter 8 races!) and didn’t have to scrape out razor-thin wins like Phelps had to in two of his races…….Mark Spitz also didn’t have to wear a fancy suit and cap and goggles and be wired up to music to psyche himself up to win….Mark Spitz swam freely and naturally with his full head of hair and mustache and won……as a native California I am still very proud that the greatest swimmer of all time, Mark Spitz, is also a native California, and swam at the famous Santa Clara Swim Club……
to: On another note, PHELPS is also much HOTTER! - August 18, 2008 at 11:35 pm
… Spitz did not come back to win 2 Golds. He won those two in Mexico City, though he essentially bombed at those games. So, in terms of comeback, Spitz wins. He would have competed at Montreal, but he fell afoul of silly amateur rules by posing for a photo with all his Munich golds.
I don’t think swim technology has changed much and these guys are swimming the same events. Phelps holds the world records. Unlike other sports, in swimming there are times that allow us to compare athletes from different generations.
Someone asked by Spitz wasn’t in Beijing handing out medals. He was in Detroit at the Maccabee games where his son is playing basketbal and he was the keynote speaker at the opening ceremonies.
One other thing in Spitz’s favor: Phelps is a full-time professional athlete, who can completely devote himself mentally and physically to the pool; Spitz was an amateur, with real-world commitments. That’s why he left Munich early, because he had to resume his studies (orthodontics at Indiana U, I believe).
This is just like the debate over baseball in the classic vs today’s players. Who was better Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx etc., or Bonds, Sosa, McGuire etc.
OK, now talk amongst yourselves…
I would have to admit this is a really trivial blog. There is no use in comparing the two swimmers because Olympic swimming in 1972 was much different than swimming in 2008. No disrespect towards Spitz, but it is much harder to be dominant across several events today than it was three decades ago. Yes, present day swimming has the benefits of advanced technology while Spitz only had his speedos and mustache. But competition is much stiffer now than in 1972. Spitz had only his US teammates as real contenders. Also, there weren’t as many preliminary or semifinal heats in 1972 as there are now. But on the other hand, you can look at it this way - without Spitz and what he accomplished in swimming, we wouldn’t be talking about Phelps the way we are now. Spitz set the standard for Phelps to surpass, cementing Phelps’ own place in history. The great ones of today owe much to the legends of the past. Someday Phelps will pass the torch to the star of tomorrow. But for now, let’s honor our heroes of the past and enjoy our generation’s own hero — Michael Phelps!
You can’t compare the two performances this way. For one thing, there are more people in the world now, and a larger percentage of them live in a country and economic status that allows them to devote the time to sport, that makes it possible for them to contend at the Olympics. For example, in 1972, China, with the largest population in the world, sent only three swimmers to Munich. They entered 10 events (dropping two of those) and did not contend in any.
When competing against a much larger field of potential opponents, an athelete at the same level of dominance will win fewer times, and by smaller margins. So unless the such differences can be quantized and taken into account, the comparisons above are meaningless.
Then, the difference in the number of heats swam is also a factor. I don’t recall the numbers, but NBC did report them and I thik it showed that Phelps swam in about 25% more heats. That alone could account for a lower average margin of winning.
The numbers guy seems to forget that record times have decreased - Spitz got, relatively speaking, the low hanging fruit. Phelps didn’t have that option.
I think both Phelps and Spitz are great guys and the media is trying REALLY REALLY hard to artificially manufacture a Jerry Springer style face-off between the two (helps their ratings.)
.
Most shameful is your analysis of ‘record margins.’ The records themselves have moved significantly since Spitz’s times and humans have limits to physical performance. As we start approaching those limits, of course the margins will keep getting smaller and smaller. In my views Phelp’s achievements are just as worthy as Spitz’s. Get off of this artificial fight already!
stupid article, compare the times.PERIOD!!!
I’d have to agree with those who say the records were easier to break “back then”. The curve is not linear, it is asymtotic (i.e. the times do not approach 0, they approach some number greater than zero. There will come a time when it is physically impossible to set any more world records. A sailfish could do it in 7 seconds @ 64mph. I doubt any human will ever get there! :)
I don’t know when it will happen, or what the final world record time will be, but there will be one, unless, of course, we figure out how to measure time much better.
To those who say today’s technology makes it easier - you don’t understand it. If technology can reduce as many factors as possible, it all comes down to how good the swimmer is. Technology here is a great thing because it evens out the fight.
Celebration of Olympics Bronzes
What happened?
How can we lose gold count to China, a third world country?
Let’s have a national holiday of mourning. No one objects I guess!
Let’s have a national contest of the best excuses of winning so less gold metals.
It has to be the BEST, so it could worth a gold in this category.
What to do?
Borrow more money from China to buy better facilities, foreign coaches, Speedo…
My secret is to import 8 Jamaican runners. Money talks!
Bribe the judges (a little harder as everyone hates us but money talks again).
Change all the rules to our favor: 5 metals for basketball, 2 for table tennis, 0 for diving…
All tiebreakers must go our way as our sponsors own the Olympics.
We will amplify their “shortcomings” like copying our advance lip sing technique (how dare you’re), small size advantage, large size advantage, working too hard…
The Chinese must have put slippery jell on our batons and/or the gym apparatus.
Develop the best dope that no one can detect – we have the best scientists.
My secret is to develop a dope that can take out all dope traces from our body so we take it before dope tests.
“One country, all metals” is our new Olympics slogan.
The more wishfully we think, the closer we succeed.
How to heal now, really?
Write to Dear Abby for starter.
Bronze is the same as gold if not better. If you do not believe me, ask any blind person.
It is harder to get a bronze as we have to LET two others to win.
We’ll train our athletes for the bronze from now on.
We will ask NBC to interview bronze winners only as they are the real winners.
Actually we’ll be happier to be #3 and build a better relationship with other nations. Stop laughing. It is a fact!!!
Phelps, we love you more with 8 bronze metals - it is no easy job to let 2 and ONLY 2 pass you 8 times.
If everything does not work, turn ugly.
Ask McDonald’s and KFC to give away their “food” to China FREE, so their next generation will be so fat that they cannot walk to the subway station.
Send soldiers to grab the metals, esp. gold. Hey, we have the best offense.
Will the world be better if we only fought for gold metals only (bronze metals in our case)?
What an Olympic spirit to celebrate the winning of the bronze!
– The author is Tony Pow. 8/22/08. Created for fun. No politics. No dumb nationalism. No ego. 90% false, 10% true. 100% fun. Hope no offense to you. Please feel free to distribute/change… —
If I had stayed with swimming instead of playing Little League, it just as easily could have been me.
your guys have spell chacker use it






The Numbers Guy examines numbers in the news, business and politics. Some numbers are flat-out wrong or biased, while others are valid and help us make informed decisions. Carl Bialik tells the stories behind the stats, in daily updates on this blog and in his column published every other Friday in The Wall Street Journal. Carl, who holds a degree in mathematics and physics from Yale University, also cowrites