OilThe rebound in oil, which has carried crude past $121 a barrel, can no longer be dismissed as a “blip” after crude fell within $110 last week. But that still does not mean oil has re-established the trend that saw it peak around $145 in mid-July.

The factors driving oil higher of late probably don’t mean much when viewed individually, so they add up to more than the sum of their parts. Worries about Russia’s response to a U.S.-Poland missile defense pact, news of the planned StatoilHydro ASA refinery shutdown in Mongstad, Norway, for two months, and an ongoing eye on Tropical Storm Fay have all contributed to the increased interest among buyers.

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On balance, the recent rise in oil does not look like much.

With varying fundamental issues in play, traders are also looking at the price action. “We were technically oversold and we did see a bounce coming,” notes Gene McGillian, analyst at brokerage TFS Energy in Stamford, Conn.

In part, those expecting further declines in the price of oil have been caught as the market turned. “You had too many bears down around $110 thinking oil was going back to $100 a barrel, and that caught a lot of people on the wrong side of the oil market. Now we’re bouncing out of there pretty aggressively,” says Tom Bentz, director and senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures.

Mr. McGillian says this rally will have to push through around $124 or so before he believes the uptrend has been temporarily re-established, because the economic outlook currently favors lower prices.