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 WSJ.com tracks the housing market with news, tips and analysis

Global

Friday Diversion: Michael Jackson Surrenders Neverland

joy

Here is this week’s roundup of celebrity real estate news:

Actor Hugh Jackman buys Sun Microsystem cofounder William Joy’s 12-room, 11,000 square-foot triplex in New York City (pictured left) for $21 million — $19 million less than its asking price. (New York Post) Mr. Joy bought the property in 2002, but never lived there. (See “Big Apple Listing for $40 million“)

Golfer Greg Norman cuts the price of his Florida home by $17.5 million. (Palm Beach Post) Last week the Journal reported that Mr. Norman’s ex-wife, flush with a $100 million-plus divorce settlement, is buying an estate in New York’s Hamptons.

Michael Jackson gives up the title to his Neverland Ranch — he had been facing a foreclosure on the property. (Associated Press)

Strokes guitarist Albert Hammond Jr. sells his New York City apartment for $1.19 million and heads for Brooklyn. (New York Magazine)

Popstar Justin Timberlake buys a three-bedroom condo in New York City for $5.25 million. (New York Post)

Actor Timothy Busfield –known for his role as Elliot West on “Thirtysomething,” lists his Malibu home for $1.995 million (L.A. Times)

Sushil Cheema

Real Estate is ‘Back’

Anton Troianovski reports:

“Real estate — it’s back.”

That’s what a CNBC talking head declared this afternoon as the markets closed and we looked up at the TV. Thanks to a 12% rally today, the Dow Jones Equity All REIT Index is now down a modest 42% for the year.

Traders may have been heeding the judgment of those who say that this fall’s sell-off has left public property companies undervalued — even given the devaluation occurring in the market. One of the day’s biggest gainers was Prologis, whose shares surged 51% a day after the industrial real-estate investment trust announced the resignation of its CEO and a halt to its aggressive expansion strategy. At a hastily arranged meeting in New York today, the newly minted chief executive Walter C. Rakowich told investors, “We’re not asking you to trust us, we’re asking you to watch us.”

It’s probably at least a year too soon to declare that real estate is back – with the commercial property market at a standstill, it’s quite hard to tell – but in the public markets it appears that investors today breathed a tiny sigh of relief.

We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

Do Foreclosure ‘Fixes’ Just Stave Off the Inevitable?

Dawn Wotapka reports:

The latest grim housing statistic comes today from RealtyTrac. The California firm reported Thursday that nationwide foreclosures surged 25% in October from a year earlier. Foreclosures climbed 5% in October over September.

Last month RealtyTrac reported a slowdown in foreclosure filings — down 12% in September over August.

What happened? That dip might be attributable to efforts on behalf on some states and banks to slow down the foreclosure process. But as those temporary stays expire, even more foreclosures may be coming on line.

An August WSJ column discussed that decline in numbers, one commentator’s remark proved prescient: “It’s all smoke and mirrors. …People are going to trumpet this and say foreclosures are going down. But three months from now it will surge right back up.”

Still, expect more efforts to slow the pace of foreclosures: On Wednesday Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said that his agency is now examining ways to prevent foreclosures as part of the $700 billion bailout package.

California is seeing the results of its efforts to halt foreclosures: While notoriously battered Stockton, Merced, Riverside-San Bernardino, and Modesto were among the 10 metro areas with the highest rates of foreclosures, each saw monthly activity decreases.

“We’ve seen sharp declines in new foreclosure filings after legislation mandating delays to the foreclosure process was signed into law in several states — most notably in California, where overall foreclosure activity was down by double-digit percentage points for the second straight month in October,” said James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac’s chief executive officer. He added the state’s default filings slumped 44% below October 2007.

Such programs are gaining steam nationwide, but it is unclear if they actually help, or simply prolong the sector’s agony.

Readers, what do you think?

One in Seven Homeowners Underwater, According to New Report

Dawn Wotapka reports:

underwaterThe grim statistics just keep rolling in. The latest batch comes from real estate Web site Zillow.com, best known for letting neighbors monitor the value of each other’s homes.

The Seattle-based firm just released its third-quarter report covering 163 metro areas, information gleaned by tapping public data such as deeds and using proprietary formulas. According to the report, roughly 14% of homeowners — one in seven — have negative equity, or owe more than their house is worth. For those who bought in the past five years, that figure doubles. (For more data on areas with negative equity, click here.)

It’s a tough position to be in, with few options other than grumbling. Selling is out: 30% of homes sold in the last year commanded less than their original purchase price, up from 23.7% at the second quarter’s end. In 17 markets –14 in California — more than half of homes sold in the last year left the seller in the red. (For more on California’s grim market, check Michael Corkery and Jonathan Karp’s fascinating look at Los Banos. “California Home Sales Revive, But Not Without Intense Pain.” The NYTimes today is reporting on another California town in trouble.)

As the residential slump limps into another year, home values continue their multi-quarter slide: They slipped another 9.7% in the third quarter ended Sept. 30 to a median $202,966, according to Zillow. That price tag, down 12.8% from the market peak, hasn’t been this low since the end of 2004.

The biggest declines came from the usual suspects: Stockton, Calif., plunged 35.5% year over year, hitting a level not seen since 2002’s second quarter. Las Vegas saw values shaved by nearly 25% to levels last recorded five years ago. Detroit might have only seen values fall by nearly 10%, but current levels mirror the end of 1999.

The quarter did have some bright spots, with 12 of the 163 markets actually showed annual gains above 1%, assisted by the Carolinas and upstate New York. With a 5.6% increase in median home value, Ithaca, N.Y. was the top gainer. Median values increased more than 3% in the North Carolina cities of Jacksonville and Winston Salem, while Pueblo, Colo., went up 1.6%.

Even so, for those dreaming of the market’s recovery, keep dreaming: “It’s clear we are at a unique point in history; we’ve had seven consecutive quarters of decline, and we expect that to continue until at least the middle of next year,” said Stan Humphries, the site’s vice president of data and analytics.

More Mortgage Modification Programs, Will They Help?

Add Fannie and Freddie to the list of financial institutions offering troubled mortgage holders a possible way out. The WSJ is reporting that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and U.S. government officials are expected to announce plans today to speed up the modification of hundreds of thousands of loans held by the housing finance giants. (See Fannie, Freddie Work on Mass Loan Modification.)

The effort will target certain loans that are past due and will aim to bring the ratio of household debt to income for these borrowers down to 38%, Damian Paletta reports. It could apply to a broad range of borrowers. U.S.
government officials plan to encourage big banks that hold loans in their portfolios to take similar steps.

Some banks already have. The Journal also reported today that Citigroup has unveiled a mortgage modification program aimed at those who are in danger of defaulting on their home loans — but haven’t yet. CitiMortgage is also halting foreclosures for about 16,000 borrowers who are behind on their loan payments but are working with the company on a loan modification.

Such moves will help keep some borrowers in their homes but won’t be enough to stem the rising tide of foreclosures, says one economist quoted in the Citigroup article. This economist says that the federal government needs to step up with a comprehensive plan to help mortgage holders.

Readers? Can the private sector fix the foreclosure crisis through loan modification? Does the federal government need to put forth a comprehensive plan? Or, should struggling homeowners be left to their own devices? –Emily Friedlander

Friday Diversion: Kelsey Grammer, Tori Spelling List Homes

Celebpromo_art_257_20081107160840.jpg
A Bel-Air estate that Actor Kelsey Grammer has listed in Los Angeles. Click here to see more photos of the property.

In pursuit of the lighter side of housing news, Developments will be offering up a weekly roundup of celebrity real estate moves.

Actor Kelsey Grammer lists two houses in Los Angeles (WSJ)

Ex-wife of golfer Greg Norman to buy Hamptons house (WSJ)

German Director Werner Herzog buys one-bedroom coop in New York City’s Flatiron District for $630,000 (The Real Deal)

Amy Redford, director of the new film “The Guitar” and daughter of Robert Redford, buys loft space in Manhattan (NY Post)

Actress Tori Spelling lists Los Angeles home for $2.395 million (L.A. Times)

One Constant for Fannie and Freddie

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have had a tumultuous year and it’s far from over, but at least one thing is holding steady for 2009: the conforming home loan limit, or the maximum size of loans that the two mortgage buyers can purchase. The current limit of $417,000 for single-unit homes will remain in place for most of the U.S., the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the regulator of the two mortgage buyers, said today.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, signed into law in July in response to the subprime mortgage crisis, established that changes in home prices in a given year would determine the loan limit for the following one. The limits could not decline, so falling home prices produce no change. The agency’s monthly index of home purchases showed a drop in price of 5.9% in the 12 months ending in August, and the quarterly index of all housing transactions declined by 1.7% between the second quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of 2008.

“For this year…all reliable metrics point to lower prices, and a price decline of any size is sufficient to determine that the national limit will not change,” the agency said in a statement.

Loan limits for two-, three- and four-unit properties in the continental U.S. also will also remain at their current levels, which are $533,850, $645,300 and $801,950, respectively.

Homes in “high-cost” areas are subject to different guidelines, as set by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act. The loan limits for those areas are equal to 115 percent of average local prices, but they cannot exceed the standard limit of $625,000 for one-unit homes.

Click here to see the 2009 loan limits for all counties.
Click here to see the 2009 loan limits for high-cost areas.
–Sushil Cheema

Builders’ Latest Idea: Buy a House on Layaway

Dawn Wotapka reports:

BeazerAiling home builders have tried it all in this downturn: throwing in tropical vacations or gourmet kitchens, paying closing costs, offering price-protection guarantees and even helping repair tattered credit reports.

And now that creative financing — including no-money down deals — is history, and a down payment is essential for a loan, builders are going retro, offering to help buyers (gasp!) save their money. The latest variation mimics department stores’ layaway plans or the Christmas clubs of long ago.

Hovnanian Enterprises’ mortgage operation is preparing a national rollout later this month of the “PASSBOOK to the American Dream” campaign, which puts contracted buyers on a plan to save up the down payment in time for closing. Beazer Homes USA, meanwhile, is touting its “Buy & Save” plan, keeping buyers on a “steady savings track.” Centex Corp. is considering something similar.

“We’re saving for a house the old-fashioned way, the way that it was always supposed to be,” said Dan Klinger, president of K. Hovnanian American Mortgage. Hovnanian knows it’s pretty simple to open up a savings account — it can even be done at home in your pajamas. So it plans to reward participants with goodies ranging from price discounts to landscaping.

If savings just isn’t your thing, Beazer’s other money-raising suggestions include employer assistance plans, gift funds from a labor union and selling personal property, including recreational vehicles, stamps, coins or baseball card collections.

You read it right: Beazer pitches parting with that beloved Babe Ruth rookie for a set of keys.

Readers, will a savings plan be enough to get you into a new house?

Hotels Face Challenging Year, Good News for Travelers?

Lingling Wei reports:

waldorf_Q_20081104162828.jpgCourtesy of Hilton Hotels
The Waldorf Astoria in New York, part of Hilton’s portfolio
See a related slideshow

Hotels are the first sector in the commercial real-estate market to feel the economic pinch, and next year will be a challenge for hotel owners and operators. The foundering economy likely will limit both business and leisure travel. Even international travel to the U.S.– a bright spot so far this year for gateway markets such as New York — is expected to “moderate” due to the weakening global economy, the recent gain in the value of the U.S. dollar, and the cancellation of many long-haul flights to the U.S., noted analysts at Green Street Advisors.

So-called RevPAR – an industry measure of revenue per available room – is expected to decline by 3% to 5% for high-end hotels, according to Green Street. That could translate into a drop of between 10% and 13% in pretax cash flows for many hotel owners in 2009, on the heels of a 3% decline this year.

The bleak outlook certainly doesn’t bode well for Hilton Hotels. One of the most storied brands in the industry, Hilton was taken private late last year by Blackstone Group in a $26 billion leveraged buyout deal. So far, Hilton has been able to outperform its competitors. But some analysts believe the sharp decline in hotel valuations has knocked out much, if not all, of the $3 billion of equity Blackstone put into the deal. And a bigger, long-term risk for the private-equity giant is whether the hotel market can recover enough value five years from now, when Blackstone faces the task of refinancing the debt tied to the Hilton acquisition. (See “Blackstone’s Inauspicious Timing: Hilton Buyout“)

“If you’ve been an owner of hotels for the past couple of years, you’ve done quite well,” said Jim Woods, a partner in Dallas-based hotel developer Open Hospitality Partners. “But the next couple of quarters are going to be difficult as fundamentals are deteriorating.”

But bad news for hotel owners could be good news for travelers. Readers have you noticed any declines in pricing?

What Was Voting Like In Your Neighborhood?

pollPolling places across the country are overflowing with eager voters. (See “America Goes to the Polls“) In one Western Pennsylvania polling place, they were signing up new workers this morning to help handle crowds. We’re also hearing about voters who lined up before the polls opened, as though they were waiting for Springsteen tickets.

And, as the Journal reports problems are cropping up: “Electronic-machine glitches forced some New Jersey voters to cast paper ballots. In New York, anxious voters started lining up before dawn, prompting erroneous reports that some precincts weren’t opening on time. In Virginia several counties experienced paper jams and balky touch-screen devices. In Richmond, a precinct opening was delayed because the person who had the keys overslept.

Despite the wait to vote, which in some places was longer than two hours, the article remarks that folks standing in line were appeared happy — and patient — about casting a ballot in this historic race.

It was heartening to walk over to the polling place in my Brooklyn, N.Y. neighborhood and see so many of my neighbors, young and old, waiting on the long line to vote. In previous years there’d be just a few folks and copious amounts of free donuts for the rare citizen who showed up.

Readers, what was the voting experience like in your neighborhood? Did you have a long wait? If so, did you take the opportunity to meet your neighbors? Were there glitches or problems?
Emily Friedlander

Photo: People wait in line to vote at the Beulah Shoesmith Elementary School in Chicago. (Getty Images)

 
 


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