Why a Hostile Takeover of Lehman Wouldn’t Work
Ladenburg Thalmann analyst Richard X. Bove lamented about Lehman Brothers Holdings today, “The major question related to this company at the moment is: ‘Why isn’t anything happening?’” Well his report, which seemed to encourage a hostile takeover of Lehman, certainly caused something to happen: an 8% jump in the securities firm’s stock price during the afternoon, after an early decline.
Bove upgraded his rating on Lehman in a research report that was sent to clients with the terse note: “Stock raised to a Buy. Hostile takeover now a possibility.”
In the report itself, Bove said, “Investors are unwilling to accept any positive view of the company; management is unwilling to sell out at a deeply distressed value. The stage is set for a hostile bid to takeover the whole company.”
The stage may be set, but there are no actors on it.
Lehman’s fate has been the subject of hand-wringing since March. Its stock price has fallen 70% since March 13, the day of Bear Stearns’ demise. If there were any bank that could do a hostile takeover of Lehman Brothers, chances are it would have shown its face by now. As it is, there don’t seem to be many banks that could pull off even a garden-variety takeover.
Few banks right now have enough extra capital to handle a big acquisition, and a massive integration is hardly what the doctor ordered for any bank in a world in which financial executives are furiously trying to steer their own way through the credit crunch. In addition, Lehman’s books are packed with mortgage assets. How many acquirers would be eager to explain that one to their shareholders?
Most of all, Lehman’s strength is its employees and they are known for their loyalty; it is about one-third owned by its own staff. But most takeovers of investment banks have been disastrous affairs, marked by long-entrenched cultural dissension and plentiful defections of key staff, a la Credit Suisse Group’s takeover of Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette in 2001. A hostile takeover of Lehman surely would spook employees, likely triggering mass departures. And what would be left for any hostile acquirer? Perhaps a nice building in Midtown and vault filled with mortgage-backed securities.
Bove says the market is undervaluing Lehman–that, if you subtract the value of Neuberger Berman –roughly $9 billion to $13 billion by his accounts — Lehman’s investors value the rest of the firm at “less than zero.” It isn’t clear how a hostile takeover would boost that.
Related links:
Is It a Bad Time For Lehman to Sell Asset Management?
Why Lehman Brothers Should Not Sell Neuberger Berman
Just How Far Behind the Pack Is Lehman Brothers?
Why wouldnt someone buy the Bank and simply spin off the Wealth Management business which is valued at about $9b? The value of the International investment banking business is probaly about $4b.
Now with pronlem of the securities in the vault - even if they are sold off for 22% of their value like MER did - a buyer makes money. I am sure there is someone who caould work such a strategy.
But LEH management seems to want to stay independent at ALL and any costs. Hope they dont go away like BEar Stearns (at least the preferred stock-holders stayed whole when JPM took over BS and ditto here).
Lehman is finished. A better deal can be made during liquidation instead of a hostile takeover now.
The comment says which bank would come forward to make a bid to acquire Lehmann. How about some of those European or even Canadian banks that have not been affected by the credit crisis? How about the big hedge funds, like Citadel, who have lots of money to invest.
any hedge fund that has the capital to do a deal like this would be better off depoying capital in other areas/markets and get at least as good a potential return with much much less risk.
And to RP who asked about a bank doing the deal that hadn’t been hit with subprime - if you just survived the shakeout, because you stayed away from CDO’s to begin with, why would you dip into something that isn’t yet finished.
jimh- your point is noted that the company is still very risky. But, this opportunity is one in a lifetime for an ‘outsider’ to become a member of the club of the main players on wall street.
As a “legacy” asset you are rightthose CDO’s are toxic and a devastating drain but to buy them for pennies on the dollar with the wealth management business (worth $10b) and the International and US advisory and deal-making businesses to boot, I think its a tremendous deal, for the right guy.
I actually believe there are buyers lining up to bid - the rub is LEH mgt’s unwillingness to sell the business at such a low price and/or accept depressed marks on their assets. Until they default on their debt obligations, LEH mgt has nothing to gain by capitulating now.
Lehman doesn’t have hardly any toxic CDO’s, they have mortgage bonds, there’s a difference, a massive difference. Regardless of what the press and idiots on CNBC say, Lehman continues to make good profits in its core business. I’m sure a lot of buyers would be more than happy to pay ‘zero’ for a profitable business. And as for the comment that Lehman empoyees would run for the exits if they were bought out…uh, where would they go? Know of anyone else who is hiring??
Maybe the rest of the bank is worth less than zero. Why doesn’t anyone understand the depth of the subprime fiasco?
Why doesn’t anyone understand the depth of the subprime fiasco?
Maybe because subprime is just the first domino to fall…to call this a “subprime fiasco” is to diminish the real liquidity crunch, system deleveraging, and sudden and significant increase in risk premiums. The entire system of risk management and pricing is out of whack. Subprime just happened to be the first to get hit.
BTW, I love the fact that risk managers are being hired at ridiculous rates. It wasn’t that there was a lack of naysayers telling everyone that this pace was unsustainable. It’s that the banks, bankers, and investors didn’t want to hear it.
Don’t forget all those lucite cubes
God Hate’s Golden Calf Builders – Here’s Proof of Prayer
To Freddie Mac’s Corporate Board
I like that 2 BTO’S and 2 Appraisals - Now tough choice - Call the judge a liar - who gave the judgment of 25,000 - wasn’t just a lien award - was a judgment - and valued the house at 50,000 - which may have to be in front of -
Or help prove the civil rights violations against me from countrywide.
You got to recall countrywide started this did this and even had the Gaul to send thugs to my door and say they owned the house get out.
So wouldn’t it had been just a simple matter - of saying - all the shit American’s have been through - let’s give them a good deal - and help them put there nightmare behind them and have countrywide and the other’s – That put American’s through there nightmare’s pay for it –.
WE pray for God’s help every night and every day - and the proof is already there - on may 14th the day of the auction – Freddie Mac bought this house – and Other’s across this Nation - from countrywide - and has been going down ever since - was it just by chance - I’m giving God credit - Too big to fail - funny how they said the same thing about the titanic - not even god could sink it.
Who among you board members can say in your heart - You can stand before God - From the greatest to the least of your people - I have treated all well.
For as you said - How you have treated the least of these – May You forgive them not - For they have known exactly what they have done.
May God show no mercy to the Golden calf builder’s?
The World - can smell in the wind already - The dropping of credit ratings already.
I wonder what will happen to all the hand wringers when a Gulf Based institution offers to buy them — and control them — for the US distribution footprint they offer. You see people are willing to pay for control, not for passive stakes with no governance rights, no ability to control the insecure managers who pay themselves millions while they dribble away all the profitability on one way ratchet trades. If you limit the true buyer universe to US banks who woudl find this accretive — read GS — you will see this thing bleed to death and stain the floor. May Dick drown in in his own blood if that is the case.
We sold AB to the Brazilians, its time to recognize that LEH will and needs to report to some Sheik.
As Mose’s Brought Forth unto the Word – The Truth wrote - by the hand of God.
He saw the Greed and corruption of the People – and God laid waste unto those who turned away from his word.
Ten simple commandments – Of how we shall treat each-other.
Who among you – Shall run to the rescue – Of those who have forgotten and turned from those simple commandments written by the hand of God?
Who among you – shall be likening unto a pillar of salt – looking back at the corruption and greed – They wrapped themselves in?
Who among you will dare to spit into the face of the will of God?
Keep God, Jesus and any other possible celestial beings out of the market chatter please. You don’t bring up politics or religion at a dinner party and you sure as hell don’t mix the market and religion either.
I do think however, that if there is a God, He would have had a chuckle when that Bear opened up @$2 that Monday morning not too long ago. (Assuming he wasn’t long) :)
Another brilliant call from Dick Bove. Is he a) corrupt; b) insane; or c) extremely stupid?






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