Posted at 06:00 AM ET, 11/25/2008

The Partly Cloudy Electorate

A new poll from ABC News and a focus group of newly-minted Democratic voters suggest President-elect Barack Obama will enter office with a base of supporters who are not expecting a miraculous economic recovery, approve of the decisions he has made so far and trust him to lead the nation out of its financial crisis.

Obama receives high marks on how he is handling the transition so far, according to the poll from ABC News, but only about a quarter believe he will be able to make big strides to improve the economy once he has taken office. This tempered optimism mirrors the views expressed this weekend in a focus group convened for the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania.

Overall, 44 percent in the ABC poll felt Obama would be able to do a good amount or more to right the economy, and an additional 27 percent felt he would be able to make "only some" improvements to the economic picture. Democrats made up the bulk of those who felt Obama would do the most to improve the economy, 19 percent of independents said he would do a "great deal" to make it better.

In the focus group, nearly all participants placed the economy as their top priority for Obama's administration, but most recognized that change takes time - one even singled out high expectations as the biggest obstacle to Obama's success.

The group of Northern Virginia voters, none of whom voted for John Kerry in 2004, were hopeful that Obama could change the direction of a nation led astray by George W. Bush, whom they described as a "failure," "short-sighted," and a "disappointment." His legacy, one said, was "the oops legacy," full of attempts at good works turned bad.

To lead the way back, these Virginians said they sought "wise" decision-making, "passion," "sincerity" and principled leadership, qualities they saw in Obama, but not in McCain. Nine of the 12 participants said they considered casting a ballot for the Republican, but were dissuaded. The ABC poll found 67 percent approve of the way Obama is handling the transition so far, an early indication that for many, he is living up to their expectations.

Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who moderated the group, asked participants to describe the current state of the nation in terms of a weather forecast. Responses covered a wide range of overwhelming weather, from a "blizzard" to a "hurricane" back to a "tornado." Four years from now, they're hoping for something between a drizzle and partly sunny.

For many in the group, progress on the economy will be their barometer. And how to convince them progress is being made? Few cited specific economic goals, though most expected Obama to follow through on his promise to cut taxes for the middle class and to expand the use of alternative energy. More pressing than any one policy prescription was staying focused on average people. "Fix it for us," said one. Another urged, "Don't forget what life was like when you were driving that car with a hole in it."

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Posted at 12:07 PM ET, 11/18/2008

Voters' Vantage Point: SCOTUS

President-elect Barack Obama is expected to have the opportunity to appoint several justices to the Supreme Court, with much of the speculation centered on Justice John Paul Stevens, the oldest and longest-serving of the nine. While Stevens is giving few signals about when he intends to step down, voters who cast their ballots with the high court in mind made some of their views known on Election Day.

The SCOTUS bloc is a slim group. Few, 7 percent, singled out the court as their top voting consideration, though more than half called appointments to the high court an important factor according to network exit polls.

Overall, voters who gave the court some weight in deciding how to vote split 52 percent for Obama, 46 percent for McCain. Those who said it was their top issue broke more heavily for the Democrat, 57 percent to 41 percent.

About half of those who considered the court the most important factor in their vote were Democrats - 46 percent compared with 39 percent among all voters - but ideologically, SCOTUS-focused voters were similar to the electorate as a whole (22 percent were liberals, 41 percent moderates, 36 percent conservatives).

Still, the issue was as strong a rallying point for conservatives as liberals: Liberal Democrats who considered the court a top concern went for Obama by a staggering 99 to 1 percent margin, while 95 percent of conservative Republicans in that group opted for McCain. Moderates who called the court a factor split 63 percent Obama, 37 percent McCain, little different from those who did not take it into account.

Those who viewed Obama's policy positions as "too liberal," regardless of their own ideological bent, were more likely to give some weight to court appointments in deciding how to vote; in this group, 58 percent said the court was a factor, compared with 52 percent among those who saw Obama as "about right".

One additional facet: Voters who called the court an important factor in their vote may be looking for an alternative to a disappointing legislative branch. More than half are deeply dissatisfied with Congress (52 percent strongly disapprove of Congress' job, it's 38 percent among the electorate overall), and these voters are more evenly divided than voters overall on an increased role for government, 46 percent prefer greater government intervention, 44 percent think such problem-solving is best left to businesses and individuals.

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Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 11/14/2008

Voters' Vantage Point: The Economy

This year's exit polls offer a few broad looks at voters' issue priorities and positions. Here's a quick rundown of where they stand on the economy. A look at other issues will follow in the days to come.

The economy's rise as the election's top issue helped propel Barack Obama's campaign to victory, and amid widespread concern over the economy's direction are signs most voters who cast a ballot with the economy in mind favor a stronger - and different - approach from the federal government.

Nearly a quarter of all voters called the economy the country's biggest problem and said the ability to bring change to Washington was the most important quality in a presidential candidate. Among this group, 92 percent voted for Obama.

More broadly, economy voters did not see John McCain as an agent of change. Half of economy voters saw McCain, if elected, as likely to continue George W. Bush's policies, and for a group deeply dissatisfied with the president's job performance -- 55 percent strongly disapprove -- that was a key dividing line. More than nine in 10 economy voters, 93 percent, who felt McCain would follow in the president's footsteps voted Obama, while McCain held 87 percent of those who said he would tread a different path.

Obama's supporters were more optimistic about the nation's financial prospects than were McCain's, with 54 percent of those who voted for the Democratic ticket predicting the economy would get better in the next year, compared with 39 percent of McCain-Palin voters. Overall, 47 percent of all voters said they felt it would improve over the next year, 23 percent saw further decline.

As noted here, voters appear to be increasingly open to the federal government's intervention on top issues. Over the past eight years, voters have shifted in favor of government action to solve problems in general: 51 percent in this year's exit poll said government should be doing more, compared with 46 percent who said so in 2004 and 43 percent in 2000.

Among those deeply worried about the impact the current economic crisis may have on their family's finances, 59 percent prefer greater government action, compared with just 31 percent of those voters who feel relatively secure in their own financial situation.

The bailout plan passed by Congress in mid-October, however, does not appear to fit the bill. About four in 10 voters said they supported the plan, including 43 percent of Obama supporters and 35 percent of McCain's voters. Even among those who favor greater government intervention, under half, 47 percent, supported the bailout.

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Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 11/13/2008

Ideological Shift or Just Complicated?

The 2008 electorate was unquestionably a more Democratic group than had shown up at the polls in years, but does that change mean the nation's political views have shifted leftward?

Network exit polls suggest little movement, at least in voters' adherence to ideological labels. Voters' stated ideology changed little since 2004, even among the younger voters who tilted so heavily Democratic, but there are other signs of potential shifts.

Overall, 39 percent of this year's voters said they were Democrats, 32 percent Republicans, a big change from four years ago when the split was 37-37. But despite this shift in partisanship, voters were no more or less apt this time around to call themselves liberal or conservative.

This year, 22 percent of voters said they are liberal on most political matters, 44 percent called themselves moderates, 34 percent conservatives. Four years ago, it was virtually the same: 21 percent liberal, 45 percent moderate and 34 percent conservative.

Party and Ideology: 2004 to 2008

        2004     2008    2004  2008
       Dem-Rep  Dem-Rep  %Lib  %Lib
All     Even     D +7     21    22

18-29   D +2     D+19     31    32
30-44   R +6     D +5     19    21
45-59   D +3     D +3     20    20
60+     R +2     D +4     17    17

Much of the partisan change was concentrated among younger voters. Among those under age 30, Democrats held a 19-point advantage in party identification this year, a 17-point improvement for Democrats since 2004. That shift was smaller among older voters, moving 11 points in favor of the Democrats among those aged 30 to 44 and six points among those over age 60. There was no change at all among those aged 45 to 59.

But even among those in their late teens and 20s, the ideological composition was little different in 2008 than it was in 2004: 32 percent are liberal now, 31 percent were liberal four years ago.

Looking at views on policy, the exit poll does indicate some shift, particularly among the young. But whether that change is due to a real change in views on the role of government or more a reflection of growing concern about the nation's well being is a bit murky.

A narrow majority (51 percent) of this year's voters said government should take more action to solve the country's problems, up from 46 percent in 2004. Moderates, who were evenly divided (48 percent to 48 percent) on the question in 2004 now favor Washington's intervention (55 percent to 39 percent).

And the share of younger voters who think government should be more actively involved has grown 26 percentage points since 2004. It was a far more modest two point change among voters age 30 and up.

Given the ambiguity of the question (see below for the full text), some of this shift is likely attributable to a greater sense that the nation is in trouble: about eight in 10 voters said the nation is seriously off on the wrong track this time around, it was a bit less than half that in 2004.

The two groups noted above, however, have shifted more drastically in favor of government action.

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Posted at 01:49 PM ET, 11/ 7/2008

Exit Polls: A Look at Cell-Only Voters

Exit polling is notable after Election Day primarily for its massive store of data on voters. Among the unexplored numbers so far this year is new information about those voters who have abandoned their home phones and gone "cell-only."

Cell-only voters have at least doubled their share of the electorate since 2004, according to the network exit poll. They now make up 20 percent of Election Day voters, but as detailed below, the percent of all voters may be lower than that when early and absentee voters are included. Despite the increase, excluding cell-only voters from the Election Day horserace calculation appears to make little difference in the overall vote margin.

As a group, cell-only Election Day voters went for Barack Obama over John McCain, by a 62 to 38 percent margin. Those who have only traditional landline telephones were 53 to 47 percent, and those have both were evenly split, 50-50. (This analysis focuses exclusively on Election Day voters.)

As explored in detail in pre-election surveys, these apparent differences are almost entirely due to the different demographics of these groups, primarily that it's mainly younger adults who have made the switch.

First a basic point: Excluding cell-only respondents from the exit poll, the race among Election Day voters shifts from a six-point margin to a two-point contest. But readjusting the data so younger voters' proportion of Election Day voters stays steady - at 21 percent - takes it back to a five-point race. That's preliminary, but not definitive, confirmation that weighting by age mostly accounts for the lack of cellphones in many polls.

About three-quarters of cell-only voters are under age 45; 44 percent are under 30, and an additional 31 percent are between age 30 and 44. The age skew of these voters has eased somewhat since 2004, when nearly half, 48 percent, were under age 30.

Younger cell-only voters were more apt to vote for Obama than were older ones, just as was the case among all voters. Voters aged 18 to 29 who only have cellphones split 68 to 32 percent for Obama; it was 63 to 37 percent among those with landline service.

There was similarly little difference among voters age 45 and up based on what kind of phone service they have. Cell only voters split 50-50, while those with landline service broke 47 Obama to 53 McCain.

But one difference worth exploring is the significant telephone gap between voters ages 30 to 44: Cell-only voters in this group split 62 to 38 percent for Obama while those with landline service divided by a much slimmer 51 to 49 percent margin.

Unfortunately some of the data that would help understand this difference - e.g., marital status, parenthood and other factors associated with partisanship - were not asked on the same questionnaire in the exit poll. From what we do know, the cell-only members of this age group have less formal education, are more likely to be male and are more Democratic and liberal than their counterparts reachable by landline. None of those variations are apparent by phone usage for voters under age 30.

Overall, age is the biggest difference between cell-only and voters reachable on landlines, and that drives many of the other variations. Cell-only voters are more apt to be Democrats and more likely to consider themselves liberals. Twenty-six percent are black or Latino, compared with 20 percent of those with landline phones.

More than half of cell-phone only voters, 52 percent, report annual family incomes of under $50,000, compared with 33 percent of landline-reachable voters. About six in 10, 62 percent, do not have college degrees, that figure stands at 54 percent for landline voters.

They are also more likely to live in urban areas than other voters.

This analysis ONLY includes those who cast their ballots on Election Day. Since the exit pollsters did not conduct interviews with early and absentee voters by cellphone, only those with landline telephone access were included in pre-election surveys aimed at estimating the early vote.

The telephone poll of early voters did ask about phone usage, and at least 2 percent of respondents took the survey on a landline number they had ported to a cellphone. When these numbers are combined with the estimate of phone usage among Election Day voters, 14 percent of the full electorate said they are cell-only. If cellphones had been included in the early voter poll the number would likely have been higher.

In this year's Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, we supplemented our landline RDD sample with a random sample of cell-only users - we will be parsing those data more thoroughly in the coming weeks.

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Posted at 01:19 AM ET, 11/ 5/2008

How Did Obama Do It?

Barack Obama's remarkable road to the presidency leaves in its wake a vastly changed political map and a string of shattered assumptions about the way demographics drive voting.

Ohio, a state which stymied each of the past two Democratic nominees, went for Obama, as did five other 2004 Bush states: Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa and Nevada.

A quick look at this evening's final update to the national network exit poll shows where Obama cracked the prevailing political mold:

White college grads. Pres. Bush won them by 11 points in 2004, John McCain eked out a 4-point edge.

Moderates. For all of McCain's efforts to paint Obama as too liberal, the senator from Illinois won by 21 points, a bigger spread than any Democrat except Bill Clinton in his 1996 reelection bid.

New voters. While they didn't make up a much larger slice of the electorate than in 2004, they gave Obama a nearly 40-point margin, far greater than any candidate since the exit poll began asking about vote history in 1988.

African-Americans. Similar to new voters, it wasn't the turnout, but the margin that mattered here. Kerry ceded 11 percent of black voters to Bush in 2004, Obama won the group 95 percent to 4.

Late-deciders. That last-minute tightening? Not so much. Just 4 percent of Election-Day voters said they made up their minds today, and 8 percent total decided in the final weekend.

We'll have more analysis of the exit polls here in the coming days. Stay tuned.

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Posted at 11:23 PM ET, 11/ 4/2008

The Ghost of Exit Polls Past

Regional coding in 1972 CBS News exit poll: Ghettos 1 - Black Ghetto 3 - Non-Ghetto

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Posted at 08:15 PM ET, 11/ 4/2008

Exit Polls: The Erie Connection

Ohio and Pennsylvania: Barack Obama's two big pickups of the early part of the evening were built on two key strengths he carried throughout the election, according to preliminary exit poll data.

Deep dissatisfaction with Pres. Bush topped seven in 10 in both states, and Obama won these voters by more than 40 points in each state

And about six in 10 voters in each of these two battlegrounds called the economy the top problem facing the country. Those voters gave Obama double-digit advantages.

At the same time, Obama did a better job than McCain connecting with voters. About six in 10 in each state said McCain was not in touch with their problems. Around half in each state said only Obama understood the lives of people like them.

McCain was unable to convince voters in Pennsylvania or Ohio that Obama lacked the experience to serve as president, 57 percent of Keystone staters and 51 percent in the Buckeye state said Obama was prepared for the job.

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Posted at 12:13 PM ET, 11/ 4/2008

Where are my exits?

Here's a brief overview of what to expect today from the exit polls and some tips about how not to be misled.

First, you will need to wait a bit.

The networks were not appreciative four years ago when early exit polls were leaked and widely misinterpreted, spurring premature Democratic glee and some to congratulate "President" Kerry. Following that debacle, the National Election Pool, the consortium of networks and The Associated Press that run the exit poll, set up a hermetically-sealed quarantine room for use on Election Day. Only three representatives from each of the sponsoring organizations are allowed in - they are denied cellphones and Internet access and they are also escorted to the bathroom.

Instead of getting data at 1 p.m. as in previous years, no one other than those in quarantine has access until 5 p.m. This arrangement held in 2006 and throughout this year's primaries. There is no reason to think it will break down today. Therefore, any numbers you may see before 5 p.m., even those that purport to come from the exit poll, are likely fabricated.

At 5 p.m. others at the networks and subscribers, including The Washington Post, get access to certain exit poll data. We have subscribed to the national exit poll and state polls essential to our election coverage.

Some will post numbers shortly after 5 p.m.; we will wait a bit to assess the validity of the data. No matter what you see, please remember that these early numbers are very preliminary - only interviews conducted through early afternoon will be included in the first release; in the case of west coast data, it'll be only morning interviews. Moreover, the first round of data has been adjusted to expectations gleaned from pre-election polling and historical vote patterns. These may be off the mark in this epic election, or not.

Whatever the case, these data should be treated with great caution. As the night goes on, we will get more and more complete information from the exit poll and from actual vote returns. It is a process.

Even as the data improve throughout the night, however, one should never forget that the exit polls do not indicate who is going to win. They are simply not designed to provide predictions.

The AP, the television networks and Edison-Mitofsky, the firm that conducts the poll, use exit polls as one element of complex election-calling decision models. Exit polls are valuable primarily for the estimates of who voted and why, with the most useful data being the crosstabs (e.g., percent of women supporting Obama, independents McCain) and estimates of voter characteristics (e.g., percent African American, white evangelical).

You may see some early estimates of the vote by state, or think you can tease out of network coverage the answer to the basic "who is winning?" question, but do not be misled. Early exit polls are often out of line with final results - that is not because they are bad polls but because they are not magically predictive.

We will highlight some of the significant findings here at Behind the Numbers, but as you dig through whatever data you get a hold of, please remember exit polls have error margins, just as all polls do. One relatively safe rule-of-thumb is to look only at double-digit advantages as significant.

One note on early voters: The national "exit" poll includes a parallel telephone sample of those who cast their ballots before today. Same is true in 18 states of greatest interest where early voting has been historically high. These telephone polls do not include parallel samples of cellphones.

Another note on reports of a Democratic bias in recent exit polls: In order to minimize any such skew in the 2008 exit poll, Edison-Mitofsky improved its interviewer training program, emphasizing how essential it is to stick to the sampling plan. They also aimed to hire a more diverse base of exit pollsters that has raised the average age of interviewers by nearly 10 years over the 2004 level (34 years old).

The exit pollsters have also taken a more active role, ultimately successful, in contesting state laws attempting to keep interviewers too far from the polling place to reach a good sample.

Here are some links to help you bide time until the exits come out:

Pew's Andrew Kohut's interview with Edison-Mitofsky's own Joe Lenski about this year's exits.

StarTrib story about the exit poll lawsuit in Minnesota.

WaPo story about the 2004 exit poll evaluation report.

Pollster.com overview on the nuts-and-bolts of exit polls.

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Posted at 01:25 AM ET, 11/ 4/2008

WaPo-ABC Track, It's a Wrap

The Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll concluded last night after 19 nights of interviewing with Barack Obama ahead of John McCain 53 to 44 percent among likely voters. That is identical to the margin in the track's first release nearly more than two weeks ago.

Over that time, neither candidate's support varied by more than a point in either direction, as the contest stayed within a narrow range of seven to 11 points.

More than 10,000 randomly-selected adults participated in one of these surveys, including more than 2,300 likely voters over the final four nights of the track.

We would like to thank all of our respondents.

Happy voting.

If the 2008 presidential election were being held today, for whom would you vote? (Among likely voters)

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Posted at 05:00 PM ET, 11/ 3/2008

WaPo-ABC Tracking: The Final Countdown

It's hard to believe, but the 2008 presidential campaign will really be history by the end of tomorrow. As the candidates make their final pitches in late-night swing-state rallies, Barack Obama continues to hold a wide national lead over John McCain.

The new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll shows Obama up over McCain 53 to 44 percent among likely voters. Neither candidate has strayed more than a point off these figures over the course of the tracking poll, which started Oct. 16, the night after the third presidential debate.

The candidates' last-minute maneuverings are aimed at a dwindling group: A third of the probable electorate reports that they've already having cast their ballot, and just 7 percent overall said they could change their minds before voting tomorrow.

Those early voters remain an Obama-leaning group, 58 percent said they voted for the Illinois Democrat, 40 percent for McCain. That's a flip from 2000 and 2004, when George W. Bush scored around 60 percent among early voters.

Both Obama and McCain candidates head into Election Day viewed more positively than negatively, with the Democrat enjoying the more favorable ratio. Nearly two-thirds, 63 percent, of likely voters have a favorable impression of Obama, including nearly half with "strongly" positive views. Fifty-four percent see McCain in a positive light, including 30 percent with deeply positive views.

A few other highlights:

Full data from the Post-ABC news tracking poll can be found here.

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