bill:politics

If I was less of a cynic I’d wish for the new Democratic majority in Congress and the Bush Administration, the Sunnis, Shiites and Israelis, the Somalis, Ethiopians, Sudanese, Rwandans, Zimbabweans and Congolese, the Basques, the Koreans, the Pakistanis, Indians, the Tamils and the Sri Lankans to find a true new path to peace, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Africa, Palestine and Israel, and everywhere people are killing each other out of misunderstanding, misplaced anger or envy, or from a sad drive for power in what is, after all, a fleeting moment that we have in this existence.

I’d wish that the greedy corporate leaders would appreciate the immense good fortune they already have and stop trying to grasp every last dollar, Euro or yuan they might possibly reach, and instead turn that drive to lifting up the far less fortunate just a little bit. Partners at Goldman, Sachs and your pals on Wall Street and the hedge funds, I’m particularly pointing at you and your absurd bonuses.
I’d also wish that the leadership of the global energy industry would realize that they’re people first, with family and friends who need a world to live in that hasn’t been ruined by rapacious consumption of what are, after all, limited resources before its too late and the rising seas are lapping up at their office lobbies.
But I am too much of a cynic, so I won’t.

John Robb had a post today on the latest developments in the police v. PCC battle in Sao Paulo and reminded me I was saving up some material to blog on Brazil, to follow up this post from a couple of weeks ago.

A good friend of mine, born in Massachusetts but fluent in Portuguese and married to a lovely Brazilian woman, said to me the other day: “Brazil is like a big carcass being ripped apart by hyeanas.” The PCC problem in Sao Paulo is just one part of it, and probably the lesser.

The bigger problem, as discussed in my previous entry, is the completely lawless destruction of the Amazon. Not to go all ecowarrier but for the near future this will probably have a larger global impact and is being driven by a simpler motivation, greed. The government won’t step in effectively because the necessary individuals are corrupted and external intervention is a non-starter due to Brazilian nationalism.

To a degree, the PCC and Amazonian issues are driven by the same underlying cause: Brazil is a country with a tiny, ultra-wealthy ruling elite, who think nothing of jetting to Miami for a hairdo and dinner, and a huge improverished peasant class, millions of whom live in cardboard and newspaper shantytowns called invasions with no water or sewage
treatment and minimal electricity provided by illegal taps.

Two of the commonly cited examples of economic success are widespread use of ethanol and exported beef; even proud Brazilians will brag on them at parties. Both, however, are actually causing much more harm than good. To provide grazing for the always increasing cattle herds and farm land to grow the corn and grain to feed them and produce the ethanol, more and more land is required.

Where is the land coming from? Criminals and corrupt politicians! Even Lula da Silva, the left winger elected President in 2002 on promises to reform the system and dig the country out from under the thumb of the IMF and World Bank, has found it impossible to put a dent in the system. Da Silva’s re-election this October, considered a lock weeks ago, is now under severe pressure from a renegade senator even further to the left who split off from the ruling party because it failed to deliver on the 2002 platform.

Guns are as, or perhaps even more, freely available in Brazil as in the United States. Over the last 20 years groups of armed men have simply shown up in the Amazon and the nation’s countryside, chopped down as many of the beautiful old growth hard wood trees as they could carry off and set fire to the rest to clear the land for ranchers or farmers. Politicians and police are paid to do nothing and the ones who refuse the payola are killed or transferred to ineffectual postings.

The people who lived on the land head for Sao Paulo, Rio and the other big cities where nothing but more misery awaits them. The hovels, which can spring up over night, grow into the huge tracts known as favelas. Brazil’s most brilliant futebol players, Ronaldinho and Robinho being the latest global superstars in a line going back to Pele, often emerge from these ghettos but other than the dozens who escape via sports each year few residents have little such hope.

Except, of course, through crime. My friend says that middle class Brazilians travel between home and work, shopping or school in constant fear of carjackings, kidnappings or worse, windows closed, doors locked and guards opening electric gates at the last possible moment and for the shortest time span so no one can sneak inside.

The recent actions of the First Command of the Capital (PCC) gang, the focus of Robb’s attention, is an early indicator that the largest country in South America may soon become the next failed state in our hemisphere, joining Columbia and Peru, but with horrifically more serious consequences than increased drug trafficking.

I tend to agree with John Robb as he’s far closer to intelligence matters than am I but when he simply highlights and confirms the words of Bruce Schneier ( as he does today in Accelerating the Decline and Fall) then there really can be no doubt. So let me give you John’s warning:

Talking, of course, about Bush’s assertion that his executive order allowing warrantless spying on American soil is within the scope of authority granted by Congress in the joint resolution passed by Congress after 9/11 that led to the war in Iraq.

The sheer arrogance of Bush, Cheney, Rice and the rest of them is barely believable but that many of their supporters would call me a defeatist, traitor or worse for writing this post demonstrates that if you stay on message, and the message is scary yet filled with bravado, then many people will check their thinking caps at the door.

Joel “on Software” Spolsky wrote one of his typically common sense yet insightful essays a couple of weeks ago, Set Your Priorities, in which he explains:

This has stuck with me, wandered around my skull, bounced off the new Bank of America Keep the Change program and finally emerged out the other end driving home from work tonight.

Bush wants to cut spending on programs here, there and everywhere which (from my perspective) generally benefit the least fortunate in America in favor of more tax cuts for the ultrawealthy. Who needs the feds money more? But its more than that, because I’m starting to wonder about some federal programs which never caused me to think like this before.

I’m talking about things like the National Endowment for the Arts and the Public Broadcasting System. Mind you, I think our dollars are used reasonably well by these programs, I’m not suggesting they have a liberal bias or one of those foolish charges. The typical explanation is along the lines of “Man does not live by bread alone.”

I just wonder how we can spend the money when there are people who don’t actually have bread to eat. Or a warm place to sleep, medicine and medical treatment, education to improve their lot. How are we following the real priorities? The love thy neighbor as thy self priorities. Read the quote from Joel again and then ask yourself if we should be spending tax dollars on Antique Roadshow or Soundstage when millions of Americans don’t have medical insurance.

Keith Curtis took advantage of being in the same coffee shop and got an extensive interview with Dr. Bradley Edwards of the SpaceWard Foundation. Edwards is a leading researcher in the effort to develop a space elevator and after working on the concept and then the actual effort for years he can handle what might seem like tough questions easily.

You won’t be surprised to learn that I’m a supporter. As covered in the interview, we’ve really about reached the peak in the oil production curve. Building even one space elevator completely changes the equation. These days we cannot afford to ignore such an opportunity. A couple of the comments question Edwards’ attitude towards NASA involvement but I agree with him: keeping the project in the private sector as much as possible significantly improves the probability of a successful result in far less time.

Curtis does pitch the right questions on engineering, economics and government involvement so it’s worth reading if you want to get filled in.

Even the comic strip artists seem to understand reality better than the Bush Administration: Pearls Before Swine. Though what worries scares me is that the Administration actually does understand what’s going on better than me or Stephan Pastis and their public positions are obscuring the true objectives of their actions.