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Daily Report for Thursday, Dec 4, 2008

[9:25am ET] Traders are focused on banks today, both central banks and commercial banks. But since the central bankers are the agents of change, that’s where we are looking for answers. Today the Bank of England, European Central Bank and central banks of Sweden and of New Zealand took drastic action by chopping rates.

Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Thurs., Dec. 4, 2008

[7:30am ET] The US bank summary stats 3Q08 compared to 3Q07 (quarter ending Sept 30) make for interesting reading. This report shows that the International Banks are hurting but still making money (although drastically lower and presumably mostly from securities trading) while the smaller commercial lending banks and the savings banks are in dire straits.
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/statistical/stats/2008sep...

Daily Report for Wednesday, Dec 3, 2008

[8:30am ET] Volatility marked Tuesday’s session as the day started with a solid rebound from the prior day crash, lifting almost +4% though mid-session, followed by a sharp drop and then rally into the close. This morning appears to be starting with more selling.

At the close Tuesday, the DJIA (+270.0 +3.31% to 8419.09), S&P 500 (+32.60 +3.99% to 848.81), and NASDAQ Composite (+51.73 +3.70% to 1449.80) regained the earlier session highs.

Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Wed., Dec. 3, 2008

[7:15am ET] Yesterday, the US equity market was driven by vehicles. Traders ought not dismiss the importance of this industry to the economic stability and revival of the American economy and culture.

Daily Report for Tuesday, Dec 2, 2008

[8:30am ET] From Thursday Nov.20 (DJIA =7997.28) there was a substantial +10.4% lift to the 8829.04 close on Friday. So, while yesterday’s loss of -7.7% in the DJIA index was literally a melt-down, it only partially offset the previous four and a half day melt-up. Today promises higher equity prices if DJIA futures and European bourse trading are any indication.

Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Tues., Dec. 2, 2008

[6:36am ET] Yesterday was the perfect storm with an announcement from an economic society that the US has been in a recession for a year, which given the generally accepted definition means since the start of 3Q07, which was followed by the manufacturing order book data that has disappeared, which was followed by Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson speaking to adoring crowds of their banker friends.

So how did the rest of us respond? Was it price capitulation or indifference? Money flow tsunami or ripple? Reaction or simply no action?

Daily Report for Monday, Dec 1, 2008

The blowing up of credit spreads, as seen in the attached graphic, is an indicator of the level of risk aversion in today's capital market. Without solving the credit crisis, there is likely to be profit-taking following every brief period of bullishness. We are seeing that today.

Cara's Commentary & Community Chat, Mon., Dec. 1, 2008

US Economic data this week will likely hold back last week’s market advance. While everybody expects Tuesday’s vehicle sales report to be a bad one, the harshest data is likely to come from this morning’s (10:00am ET) order book in the manufacturing data, and in the rising unemployment to come in Friday’s employment data.

The Asia-Pacific and European markets started the week on a negative note, and the $USD futures are up; while the US equity futures are down and it appears that the T-Bill yield will come under further pressure.

Week in Review #48, 2008

Trader appetite has changed. This was a week in the market when traders turned aggressive, taking on more risk.

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