The Big Picture (via Mowser)

More Bailout Comparisons

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 | 11:30 AM

Last week's discussion on the size of the bailout expenditures generated some interesting buzz. A few others picked up on the size, and created a few different ways to depict the amount of money involved.

These have been my favorites:

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100-Year Bonds ?

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Wednesday, December 03, 2008 | 09:45 AM

in Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Todayâ€™s WTF article is this clever funding idea, via former Treasury undersecretary (now at BlackRock) Peter Fisher: Issue 100-year bonds.

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8th Bear Market Rally Since October 2007

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Tuesday, December 02, 2008 | 11:31 AM

in Technical Analysis

Merrill Lynchâ€™s David Rosenberg notes that last weekâ€™s pop was the eighth bear market rally since October 2007.

As the chart below shows, they have ranged in strength from ~8% to over 24%.

Each one was treated (â€enthusiasticallyâ€) as if a bottom had been made. Each one saw a subsequent lower low, excepting the most recent one that ended Friday.

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Calculating the Total Bailout Costs

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Tuesday, December 02, 2008 | 09:25 AM

in Bailouts

More than a few people have asked me how I came up with the the $8.5 trillion figure for the total cost of the bailouts. Below is a table, plus the Excel Spreadsheet it came from.

Note that this cost does not include the $5.2 trillion in Fannie/Freddie portfolios that the US taxpayer is now also explicitly responsible for.

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Bush WH Ignored Mortgage Meltdown Warnings

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Monday, December 01, 2008 | 03:11 PM

in Regulation

A brutally damning article about the warnings the Bush administration received and ignored was published this morning by AP. The AP summed up the philosophy of the Bush White House, writing: "The administration's blind eye to the impending crisis is emblematic of its governing philosophy, which trusted market forces and discounted the value of government intervention in the economy. Its belief ironically has ushered in the most massive government intervention since the 1930s."

The Bush administration backed off proposed crackdowns on no-money-down, interest-only mortgages years before the economy collapsed, buckling to pressure from some of the same banks that have now failed. It ignored remarkably prescient warnings that foretold the financial meltdown, according to an Associated Press review of regulatory documents.

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Spinning Black Friday Retail Sales

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Monday, December 01, 2008 | 09:27 AM

in Consumer Spending

A few things you can count on every year around this time:

Sales data for Black Friday will be touted by biased interest groups. They are invariably have an upside bias; Headline writers will get it wrong Survey data will be taken as the equivalent of actual sales; Strong forecasts will be subsequently proven wrong;

Such is the current situation with the Black Friday sales data, with reports still trickling in from around the country.

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Mega-Bear Quartet

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Sunday, November 30, 2008 | 03:02 PM

in Markets

Doug Short overlays the 4 major bear markets of the past centruy onto one chart. Its a comparison of today's S&P 500, the Dow post 1929, the Nikkei post 1989, and the NASDAQ after the tech bubble:

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Finding Holiday Uses for Stock Shares

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Thursday, November 27, 2008 | 07:45 PM

in Consumer Spending

Amusing CNBC.com piece about what you can buy with your near worthless stock shares. For example, a single share of Microsoft buys you a 10 pound Butterball turkey.

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ECRI Leading Indicators Fall to Lowest Level Ever

Posted by Barry Ritholtz on Wednesday, November 26, 2008 | 02:30 PM

in Economy

One of the questions I seem to be getting all the time is â€œWhen is this recession going to end?â€

To answer that, I turned to Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Their leading vs coincident chart provides insight into that question.

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