Femtocell market update for week of 24 November 2008

Singapore’s StarHub launches world’s first commercial 3G femtocell service

(Website ¦ FAQ)

StarHub’s ‘Home Zone’ femtocell is currently limited to the first 200 subscribers, so it’s perhaps more of a market trial than a full commercial launch.  It’s similar in principle to Sprint’s trial of the AIRAVE, which was initially limited to a couple of US cities.  But Home Zone is actually being sold to real consumers paying real money, so StarHub does deserve the headlines.  Here are the highlights:

Launch follows a femtocell trial started in May 2008 Currently only available to the first 200 subscribers who sign up ‘Home Zone’ supports all 3G mobile services Supports up to four simultaneous calls over a single ‘Home Zone’ connection A pre-recorded voice message “You’re on the Home Zone service” is played before each outgoing call Some phones display “StarHub Home Zone”, “SGP-06″ or 52506″ as the network name Subscribers call 1633 to change their access control whitelist The femtocell equipment is supplied by Huawei StarHub will ”realign MaxOnline bandwidth” to prioritise femtocell voice traffic in future

Tariff:

‘Home Zone’ AP is offered on free loan (i.e. still owned by StarHub) S$16.05 (US$10.62) per month with a 1-year contract Minimum subscription for Home Zone service is 3 months Local calls & SMS in the home are free, but not international calls Mobile data, MMS and downloads are charged at standard rates
Limitations:
Only available to StarHub’s existing broadband (MaxOnline) subscribers Only available to StarHub’s post-paid mobile subscribers No hand-in from the macro network to the femtocell Access control white-list is limited to four numbers Only for residential use (no office use, on pain of severe consequences!) No itemised billing of the femto calls FAQ warns about potential faster battery drain Femtocell gets very hot during operation - FAQ reassures customers that this is normal.

“The beauty of the 3G femtocell technology is that all 3G-enabled phones are supported and customers do not need to purchase special handsets to take advantage of it,” said Mr Anil Nihalani, Head of Mobile and Communications at StarHub.

SFR comments on femtocells

“SFR says it’s too early to communicate on detailed commercial offers.  However it is possible to imagine all the possibilities that this technology would open up: like cheaper or free calls when the subscriber calls from the femto, or a community-based development like FON: open up your femto to others, and use other femtos for free.  Femtos would also be ideal to bring 3G coverage in areas with poor or no coverage. However the regulator will certainly have comments on such a peculiar use of 3G licenses, while associations fighting the installation of large antennas will certainly be incensed by the multiplication of small ones.”
[Thanks to Thierry Samama for the French translation - never my best subject at school.]

Gartner says we’ve reached the peak of the femto hype cycle

“At present, Gartner assesses femtocells to be at the peak of inflated expectations,” said Foong King Yew, Gartner’s research director for telecommunications.  Gartner invented the famous technology hype cycle, which predicts a period of disappointed expectations following the early hype surrounding any new technology innovation.  In an interview with ZDNet Asia, Foong said it would take another two to five years for femtocells to mature, but that they are “a promising technology over the longer term”.

EU issues power consumption guidelines for femtocells

Version 3 of the EU ‘Code of Conduct on Energy Consumption of Broadband Equipment’ mentions femtocells for the first time.  It recommends that femtocells should consume less than 9 Watts in 2009 and less than 8 Watts in 2011.  This shouldn’t present too big a challenge; for example the ip.access Oyster 3G femtocell is already at about 8 Watts, and Ubiquisys says its ZoneGate femtocell also already complies with the 2011 target.

How does 900 MHz spectrum re-farming impact the femtocell business case?

Ram Krishnan asks a good question here.  If operators clear out some of their GSM 900 MHz spectrum and use it for 3G, as Elisa has done in Finland, will there be any need for femtocells?  900 MHz propagates further than 2.1 GHz, so operators can save costs by using fewer basestations to cover more area.  This makes it easier for an operator to extend its network coverage in rural areas, which means there should be fewer subscribers who need a femtocell due to lack of macro network coverage in their region.  On the other hand, I believe it’s true that 900 MHz signals don’t penetrate buildings any better than 2.1 GHz, so it shouldn’t follow that femtocells are unnecessary.  And an even more important argument for femtocells is that they add capacity to the network, which is not solved by re-farming 900 MHz spectrum.

Epitiro recommends voice quality testing

Voice quality test equipment maker Epitiro has published a Femtocell Deployment Guide, showing the performance of IPsec traffic in real-world situations.  “Cellular operators need to understand that residential broadband service can vary significantly by time of day, day of week and by type of traffic,” said JP Curley, Epitiro’s CTO.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, Curley recommends that operators should deploy, erm, voice quality test equipment (so that they can measure and monitor voice quality for their femtocell customers), and that they should consider negotiating Service Level Agreements with ISPs.  Fair enough - this may well be a good idea.  In practice, I haven’t yet seen any complaints about voice quality from femtocell customers (in fact, most of the AIRAVE reviews suggest that voice quality is better than on the macro network, despite the fact that Sprint has no control over the residential broadband connection).  Maybe we’ve just been lucky so far?

Airvana sees consumer demand for femtocells

Like other femtocell vendors, Airvana is getting inquiries from consumers wanting to buy femtocells.  This interesting Femto Hub posting exposes some commonly held misconceptions.  Top of the list: femtocells bypass the wireless carrier’s network.  Second: femtocells provide a home broadband connection (nope, that’s the ‘dongle dock’).

Femtocells - already a legacy!

I love the reference to “Legacy FAP” in figure 1 of this article on femtocell security issues.  Presumably those are the ones using the ‘legacy Iu-h standard’, which hasn’t quite been finished yet :-)

In other news…

Femtocell market update for week of 17 November 2008

KTF working on femtocells

KTF, Korea’s second largest mobile operator, has announced that it is collaborating with Huawei on the development of femtocells (presumably WCDMA).

Pictures of SFR’s femtocell

This article in French says that SFR is still experimenting with femtocells, and shows a picture of an SFR branded femtocell (Ubiquisys flavour) plugged into the Neufbox, Neuf / SFR’s residential gateway offering 70 TV channels, free calls to fixed line phones in 70 countries, and many additional services (thanks to our resident satisfied Neufbox owner, Thierry Samama, for these details).

Will 80% of web users choose mobile broadband over fixed by 2013?

Ericsson says it expects 80% of Internet subscribers will connect via mobile broadband instead of fixed by 2013, using LTE technology to deliver a high speed data experience.  Some of the arguments look sensible (such as the ability to reach rural areas more cost effectively than with fibre), but overall the analysis seems overly optimistic. For a start, the gap between fixed and mobile broadband speeds seems to be widening, not narrowing.  And then there’s the fact that LTE improves peak data rates dramatically, but has a much less significant effect on overall data throughput in a cell.  In other words, LTE won’t solve the capacity crunch.  This is one reason for the excitement about using femtocells to build out LTE networks “from the indoors out“, thereby adding lots of extra capacity.  “Far from hastening their demise, this suggests that the importance of fixed broadband connections will actually increase, because they are needed to make the femtocells work.

picoChip promotes the “LTE metro femto”

picoChip CTO Doug Pulley might have expected to spark some controversy at the LTE World Summit in London this week, with his assertion that “the macrocell is dead!”  But, apparently, everyone agreed with him.  China Mobile and T-Mobile International backed his proposal that femtocells and picocells will be essential, not only for indoor coverage but outdoors as well, to ensure the network has sufficient capacity.  picoChip believes femtocells will be fundamental to LTE for both residential and public hotspot, or “metro femto” deployments.  The company used the Summit to reveal further details of its LTE basestation reference designs - the PC8618 picocell and PC8608 femtocell platforms, designed in collaboration with mimoOn and ASTRI and targeted to run on picoChip’s PC203 processor.  The target price for LTE femtocells in 2011 is $70.

David Chambers thinks this LTE metro femto idea is more convincing than residential deployments (where backhaul constraints will mean that LTE femtocells will have no advantage over their 3G counterparts).  But for outdoor deployments, “there’s no doubt that smaller cells combined with the higher performance of LTE and the self-managing/optimising techniques developed for femtocells can deliver a massive amount of capacity in targeted areas,” he notes.

Mobile data revenues still growing despite the economic downturn

Chetan Sharma has released their latest analysis of the wireless data market.  Despite the economic climate, US mobile data revenues will come close to hitting their original estimate of $34 billion.  Revenues grew 37.5% from Q307 to Q308 (which sounds good, although it’s far below the growth rates for the data traffic itself).  “The networks…are not able to handle the load during peak times in certain cities thus forcing carriers to look for alternate strategies to satisfy the demand for broadband - metered billing, UMA, Femtocells, Hotspot buys, WiMAX, LTE, and others,” says the report.  Interestingly, Chetan Sharma think that subscribers will go for package deals and family plans in order to save money, which makes femtocells a potentially attractive option.

WiFi world spooked by femtocells?

In this article, Peter Thornycroft (a technologist with Aruba Networks) reviews femtocells from a rather WiFi-biased perspective.  Not that I blame him, and not that I’m unbiased myself, of course.  Anyway, it looks as though the WiFi world considers femtocells a serious enough threat that it’s worth putting out some anti-femto propaganda.

Femtocells moving fast

Continuous Computing’s Todd Mersch asks “what is keeping the home base station from hitting operators’ storefronts this holiday season?”, and concludes that femtocells are, in fact, making progress at an impressive rate compared to the average new technology introduction.

Pundits still querying the femtocell business case

Paul Lambert, Editor of Global Mobile, says “even a cursory analysis shows that the whole femtocell project - at the moment - is woolly from start to finish”.  He then trots out the usual business case objections, asking “why should [operators] spend significant amounts of money subsidizing femtocells when they’ve already invested heavily in building-out macro networks?”  Well basically, Paul, they are going to have to spend a lot more on their macro networks in future to meet increasing demands for mobile data, and femtocells represent a cheaper and quicker alternative.  At the same time it’s getting harder and harder to deploy macro network infrastructure, as this everyday story of a neighbourhood objecting to the rapid spread of cellphone antennas shows.

Nextivity to launch “smart repeater” at Mobile World Congress

Nextivity CEO Werner Sievers says 40% of mobile subscribers report problems with indoor signals (that’s the highest figure I’ve heard!), and that he expects to sell 3.5 million repeaters over the next 3 years.  Nextivity claims its repeaters can more than triple data transmission rates, and that they are being tested by 24 European mobile network operators.

More femto news and articles…

Rethink says it’s SoftBank vs. AT&T in the race to use femtocells to expand mobile broadband services and capacity. David Chambers proposes mobile broadband tariffs designed to encourage data offload onto femtocells. Computer World answers “18 burning questions about femtocells” (but if you’re reading this you’ll know the answers already). Femtocells get ready to invade.Airvana launches the Femto Hub website (which I’ve found quite useful). Hay Systems unveils 2.75G femtocell (following previous announcements that they were going to do it and that they had almost finished doing it). More reports that Sprint’s Airave works well, and a nice picture of one in a real home. Femtocells feature in this week’s Carnival of the Mobilists. This blogger seems rather worked up about the potential for third parties to snoop on your femtocell calls. Benoît Debains, CEO of OnAir explains how in-flight communication services operate onboard aircraft.

Femto funding

I found this list of recent investments in femtocell companies and spotted a few missing, so I thought I’d make a new list:

Airvana: IPO AirWalk: $10 m ip.access: strategic investment from ADC, Cisco, Qualcomm Kineto: $15.5 million round including Motorola plus (additional?) strategic investment from NEC Percello: $12 million picoChip: strategic investment from Samsung RadioFrame: $28 million Tatara: $6.5 million Vanu: $32 million Ubiquisys: $25 million round including VC money and Google as a strategic investor; further strategic investment from T-Ventures.

Probably still some missing - let me know if you spot one…

Femtocell market update for week of 10 November 2008

Mobilkom announces femtocell trials

Austrian operator Mobilkom has said that it is piloting 35 residential and business femtocells from Huawei.  The pilot project will run until the second quarter of 2009, with the final product offering to be launched in the first half of next year.

SoftBank - as you were

Tetsuzo Matsumoto, Chief Strategy Officer for SoftBank Mobile, was reported as saying this week that it will be 2-3 years before there is “a workable solution to the problem of cell-to-cell interference between femtocells and the macro network” as required to enable wide scale deployment.  This seems to contradict SoftBank’s public position that they are satisfied with the interference management enabled by their current system, and are ready to deploy femtocells from January 2009.  Sources close to the situation tell me that SoftBank has not changed it’s position, and it looks as though Matsumoto-san’s comments may have been mis-represented.

More on WiBro femtos

SK Telecom recently unveiled IB Cell, a business femtocell to be launched at the year end, while KT announced plans to start corporate service later this year and then home service next year.

3G is feeling the strain - femtocells to the rescue

Dean Bubley notes that mobile broadband is straining the 3G networks, and the cracks are starting to show.  He says “alarm bells have started to ring with the rate at which network capacity is being apparently used up”, and that operators are starting to deploy their 3rd or even 4th carrier.  According to Dean, this explains the “panicked interest in femtocells, 900MHz refarming, 2.6GHz auctions and various approaches to adding or splitting cells”.  David Chambers looks at femtocells alongside other options here, and concludes that a balance of different approaches is needed.

Some comments on the Disruptive Wireless blog disagree with Dean’s assertion that “the current 3G networks have gone from empty to almost-full in just over a year”, but with a 10-fold increase in wireless traffic forecast (or is that 700-fold?), it’s surely just a matter of time anyway.

Femto hype cycle - down we go!

gartner1Despite numerous operator announcements recently, we’re starting to see some rather negative reporting on femtocells.  Given that Gartner invented the “hype cycle”, it’s kind of appropriate to see their recent report announcing “The Femtocell Market is Unlikely to Take Off Before 2012″.  I must admit to being somewhat mystified by many of the report’s conclusions - for example it doesn’t seem reasonable that 15 million subscribers will be served by only 2.5 million residential femtocells in 2012 (at an average of 6 subscribers per home).

The truly wonderful femtocell consumer proposition

Reading Fierce Wireless, I was surprised to find myself sounding rather downbeat about the femtocell consumer proposition.  Let me assure you that this isn’t the case at all.  In fact I think the consumer proposition is quickly going to become very compelling (look here).  Today you share a signal from the macro network with everyone else in your neighbourhood; indoors this signal is weak - not good enough for high speed mobile data.  With femtocells you can choose to have your own personal 3G cell.  Why would anyone want that?  Because it’s faster, clearer, and (depending on your operator) cheaper.  If you’re not interested in that, you’re probably not in the target market.  Yet.  (And on top of that I can’t wait for femtozone services and connected home features…)

Huawei wants to build cheaper femtocells

According to James Chen, Huawei’s terminals director, the company’s femtocells are designed and owned by its networks business.  “We have a very close relationship with the infrastructure business,” insisted Chen.  “They develop the [femtocell] base station, we develop the routing… But the cost of making them is still too high.”

Here’s why you really don’t want a repeater

“I attached the antenna to the top of the metal mast that supports my weather station so that I could get as much height as possible. I then ran the coax down into the room below through an attic vent and plugged it into the base unit (you can add another 20 feet of coax if needed) - pretty easy.”  Sure.

RadioFrame tops ABI’s picocell vendor matrix

I’m speechless.  Lets just say well done to RadioFrame, and leave it at that.

AIRAVE

Some people are raving about AIRAVE, others are never satisfied.

Femto firms hire senior execs

Airvana appoints industry veteran to VP of Engineering for its UMTS femtocell division. Tatara appoints Executive VP of Operations to accelerate the global market penetration of IP-based femtocell convergence and applications enablement (and that’s the abbreviated headline!). BitWave expands senior management team with VP Engineering.

More femtocell related news & articles…

The Informer features femtocells again. Rob Bamforth says small networks win big prizes. Interview with Manish Singh from Continuous Computing. Hurdling the stumbling blocks of femtocell design. Are femtocells cost efficient? Ubiquisys and Rohde & Schwarz find femtocell test solution (was it lost?)

Femtocell market update for week of 3 November 2008

AT&T’s CEO of Mobility and Consumer Markets confirms femtocell trials

Speaking at the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco this week, AT&T’s iPhone chief, Ralph de la Vega, spoke about AT&T’s plans for femtocell market testing in 2009.

T-mobile also confirms femtocell trials

T-Mobile International CTO Joachim Horn says T-Mobile is testing the femtocell user experience in a UK trial.  The company is investigating plug’n'play provisioning, and how well femtocells work over basic DSL.  “It’s a very interesting technology,” said Horn.

Are femtocell deploymets stalled?

The Total Telecom headline says that femtocell rollouts are “stalled” due to issues with quality and standards.  But this isn’t quite what the operators quoted in the article are saying.  It can be argued that femtocell deployments are taking longer than the industry originally hoped, with operators indicating that the trial phase is not yet over (e.g. “We’re still in the phase of making sure the technology is absolutely fit for purpose and delivers the high service levels people expect of Vodafone”).  However, this doesn’t exactly amount to a “stall”.  The difficulty for anyone looking in from the outside is that it’s easy to mistake initial enthusiasm (which everyone talks about) for real projects, and then to mistake the real projects (which nobody talks about publicly) for lack of activity.

Femtocells in the Middle East

On his Hot & Cool Wireless blog, Ubiquisys’ Housam Housami makes some interesting comments on the market for femtocells in the Middle East.  He says that all the region’s operators are struggling with 3G coverage indoors, and that the budgets allocated for 3G network expansion projects to solve the issue could “almost buy them a femtocell for every household”.

Are femtocells a disruptive technology or aren’t they?

Xchange says yes - femtocells will accelerate Fixed Mobile Substitution.  But Nitzan Kon (CEO of VoIP provider Future Nine Corp) says it’s premature to forecast any impact on Voice over IP or POTS.  Nitzan makes some relevant points, but I think he is wrong about carriers that own both fixed and mobile assets having “zero interest in competing with themselves” (i.e. offering femtocells to increase mobile phone use at the expense of the fixed line phone).  I think most of them have figured out that they have to get on board with the trend to Fixed Mobile Substitution before someone else eats their lunch.

ip.access appoints industry veteran as COO

Philip Rimell joins ip.access from JacobsRimell, which he co-founded in 1997 to provide provisioning and activation systems for IP-based services to cable, wireline and wireless operators.

People will pay to improve their cellphone coverage

This blogger says he’s long been an unwilling dupe of the cellular industry, paying thousands of dollars for shoddy service.  He understands full well that femtocells (or “bring your own cellular tower”, as he puts it) benefit the carrier more than the end user, but admits that he’s “happy to be duped again.  Anything to improve the service.”  (On the other hand, this person is suspicious that femtocells are designed to lock subscribers in.)

Cash back for installing a femtocell?

Zahid Ghadialy proposes that operators should offer cash incentives for subscribers who open up their femtocells so that anyone on the network can use them.  Operators will benefit from improved network coverage and capacity.

Thomson wins award

Well, fancy that!  I never knew that there was an award for “European DSL Wireless and Integrated Femtocell Gateway Product Line Strategy of the Year“.  (Neither did I know about the “EMEA Agent Performance Optimisation Competitive Strategy Leadership Award“, come to think of it. )

Malaysia Airlines to allow cellphones

MAS will use AeroMobile’s technology (based on ip.access nanoGSM picocells) to become the first Asian airline to offer in-flight mobile phone and data services.

More femto news and articles…

Femtocell market update for weeks of 20 & 27 October 2008

AT&T announces 3G femtocell trial

AT&T says it will start femtocell trials later this year.  “As the nation’s leading provider of both wireless and broadband, it makes sense that we would examine the potential benefits of femtocells for our customers,” an AT&T spokeswoman said.  “We’re currently doing testing in our labs and a trial is planned for later this year.”  Unstrung speculates that Cisco and ip.access are supplying the 3G femto technology.

Verizon may launch femtocell service in 2009

Verizon says that it may launch a femtocell service in 2009.  A Verizon spokesman told Unstrung, “We could well have a product on the market early next year, but we have made no public announcements about that yet.”  Engadget reports that Verizon will use the Samsung UbiCell (the same femtocell product Sprint is using for its own AIRAVE CDMA 1X femto service).  Verizon has made an FCC filing which includes pictures of a Verizon-branded UbiCell.

But with data increasingly driving femtocell deployments (see below), Sprint and Verizon must surely move up quickly from 1X to EV-DO.  This blogger says he has to manually disconnect the EV-DO service on his phone before it will work with the Sprint AIRAVE.

HSPA (and the recession) expected to drive femtocell market

A new report from Infonetics concludes that HSPA will be the key driver behind future femtocell adoption, with consumers demanding femtocells to ensure a good quality data service at home (or in the office).  Femtocells offered with home-zone tariffs could also be seen as a ‘recession-buster’ deal for price-conscious consumers.  The report says that there are still technical and commercial challenges to be overcome, but that 2009 will see significant market traction.  The conclusions build on a previous Infonetics study from last April.

Two further femtocell reports were issued this week.  Research & Markets published “Femtocells: Analysing the Business Case“, and IDC released “Femtocell-Enabled Consumer Services in Western Europe: Forecast and Analysis, 2008–2012“.

SK Telecom announces WiBro femtocell

SK Telecom has announced its WiBro femtocell (originally conceived back in 2006 when the company signed a partnership with picoChip.  Pictures here.

Japanese regulator makes femto deployment simpler

For those of you who don’t read Japanese, end users will finally be able to legally switch their own femtocells on and off instead of having to call for a qualified technician.  However, they must be officially registered as  “FAP operators”.  [Thanks to my Femto Forum colleague, Aya Mukaikubo for the info and the translation.]

Cooper backs femtocells

In his keynote presentation at the Embedded Systems Conference in Boston, mobile phone inventor Dr. Martin Cooper discussed a handful of current problems in the wireless industry, and provided some suggested solutions.  Interestingly, femtocells were high on his list of solutions.  “Where the cell sites ought to be is where the people are,” he said.

Airvana announces Hitachi agreement (again)

Airvana already announced in July that it will customise its HubBub CDMA femtocell to inter-work with Hitachi’s core network products for the Japanese market.  This new announcement says that Hitachi will handle the marketing, sales and support activities in Japan.  (Thanks for letting us know.)

…and bets the farm on femtocells

Paul Callaghan says that Airvana is “betting the farm” on femtocells.  (I’m sure he’s said something like that before as well - is this news?)  60% of the company’s $80 million R&D budget will be spent on femtocell technology (so that’s just under $50 million to fund both CDMA/EV-DO and WCDMA femto development if Airvana continues to compete in both markets).

…so does Tatara

Tatara has sold its mobile broadband product line in order to focus fully on its femto technology.

Femtocells immune to the credit crunch

This article summarises some of the recently announced investments in femtocell companies, and suggests that the credit crunch doesn’t appear to apply to the femto industry.

Etisalat showcases Ubiquisys femto at GITEX Gulfcomms 2008

Etisalat is promoting its ‘HomeCell’ concept - a platform for new presence-triggered multimedia services in the home.  For example, there’s a MobileCam that can be accessed from any 3G phone.

SFR’s version of the “dongle dock”

SFR has a twist on the “dongle dock” concept.  It has just launched its new Neufbox, an ADSL residential gateway that can accept a 3G+ dongle.  SFR will loan you a dongle as a backup broadband connection if your DSL line is out of service for more than 48 hours.

Can the US hold out against in-flight phone services?

Continuing our gambling theme, EMS Technologies CEO Paul Domorski says he’s betting his company on in-flight phone services.  Freesky Research thinks the current US ban can’t last forever as more and more countries approve the use of mobile phones on planes and customers come to expect it.  It seems to me that the argument about in-flight calls potentially interfering with aircraft systems really doesn’t wash in the US, given that mobile data services are already in use.  For example, Aircell’s Gogo service uses EV-DO technology with base stations located on the ground (and presumably much greater interference than you’d see with picocells on the plane).

UMA stats as clear as mud

Infonetics Research says that the number of UMA users has grown from 1.7 million in 2007 to 9.7 million in 2008.  This sounds a bit high, given that Orange (acknowledged as the most successful UMA operator) recently announced only 1.2 million UMA handsets sold (see market update for week of 22 September).  T-Mobile US is the only other major operator with a significant UMA service.  Infonetics also says that sales of dual mode cellular/WiFi phones are on target to grow by 82% in 2008.  Or, mysteriously, that could be just 16%, according to a Cellular News report of the same Infonetics research.  What are we to believe?

More femto news and articles…

Femtocell market update for week of 13 October 2008

Telefónica O2 prepares new femto trial

Unstrung says that Telefónica O2 Europe is planning a new femtocell consumer trial early next year, and implies that new vendors may be involved.  The article doesn’t say where the trial will be, but it mentions a previously announced UK trial involving NEC and Ubiquisys.  Telefónica O2 has also been trialling femtocells in Spain with Huawei and Alcatel Lucent.

The day of the “Dongle Dock”?

In response to T-Mobile’s recently announced “Share Dock“, 3 UK has unveiled a competing product that allows up to four people to share a mobile broadband connection.  O2 has hinted it might announce something similar later this month.  These devices (nicknamed “dongle docks” by Dean Bubley) are basically WiFi access points for the home that use a 3G link (via an HSPA dongle) in place of a fixed broadband connection, in theory allowing consumers to ditch their DSL lines altogether.  With Analysys Mason predicting that mobile broadband could replace fixed broadband in a quarter of European homes within 5 years, it seems that the Dongle Dock’s time has arrived.

But some analysts are scathing about the idea that mobile broadband could ever provide an effective substitute for the fixed alternative, citing poor indoor performance and network capacity constraints as key issues.  The nightmare scenario is that dongle dock users could drain capacity from the network as it struggles to provide a high speed data signal indoors, causing quality problems for all the other users in the 3G cell.  Operators would then be forced to spend a fortune on capacity upgrades to their macro networks while at the same time fielding customer complaints and attempting to repair their damaged reputations.  Look at the problems caused by the 3G iPhone, which has a fraction of a dongle dock’s capacity to eat up data.  In the long run it looks like the 3G macro network equipment providers could benefit much more from the dongle dock than mobile operators or consumers.

Other analysts see the rapid take-up of mobile broadband and video as strong market drivers for femtocells, which will offload traffic from the wireless network to terrestrial broadband.  According to In-Stat, more than half a billion devices capable of viewing internet video over 3G will be sold in 2013.

Dean Bubley points out another bizarre and fascinating dongle dock nuance.  In theory, a consumer could plug one operator’s femtocell into another operator’s dongle dock, causing the second operator to carry the first operator’s voice and data traffic through its own core network.

Digimoc makes femtocells for China

Digimoc Telecom Technology has announced that it will use picoChip’s silicon and software designs to make TD-SCDMA femtocells for the Chinese market.  This effectively gives Digimoc a target market of precisely one mobile operator, which doesn’t sound like much until you take into account that, with 415 million subscribers, China Mobile is the biggest mobile operator in the world.

Interestingly, Digimoc has been described as “just like Ubiquisys were in 2006″.  As far as I can see from the website photos, this would imply that Ubi had a completely empty office with nobody even on reception ;-)

European Communications features femtocells

ip.access CEO Steve Mallinson makes the front cover of European Communications this week, and discusses the impact of picocells and femtocells with Priscilla Awde.  Steve’s Mum is delighted.

Meanwhile the ip.access ad girl has somehow swapped her RAZR for a 3G iPhone.  Cool!

Airave performs fine on congested broadband

This blogger tried (and failed) to cripple his Airave by downloading large files while talking on his phone.  It’s possible that he might have had more success by uploading large files, but it’s a good result for the Airave.

15 minutes of fame this week for Motorola’s Sheriff Popoola

Here’s another of my Femto Forum colleagues talking sense about femtocells in an interview with TMCnet.  Sheriff says that Motorola is looking at femtocells in UMTS, CDMA, WiMAX, and LTE.  He says that “the market is looking for a cost reduction curve that is unprecedented at this early stage of a new technology; and the whole industry is rising to that challenge.”

Australia looking to approve in-flight GSM

After 18 months of testing, the Australian Communications and Media Authority has concluded that it is safe to use mobile phones on planes with picocells and jammers installed.  Now the ACMA has proposed to amend Australian law to allow the use of picocell technology on planes.

Cisco comments on femtocells and RF emissions

The Cisco blog says, “In some discussions about femtocells, I’ve heard concerns about a new source of radiation in your home.  But actually, since a nearby femtocell is easier to reach than a distant cell tower, the phone can reduce its transmit power and irradiate your head less, if ever so slightly.  As usual, I’d expect most users would put aside such worries in favor of convenience and cost advantages.”

Will the economic downturn hurt the telecoms market?

Gary Kim points out that there is little evidence that consumers drop their video or voice services in hard times.  He argues that people consider mobile phones, television and broadband as essential services, and that there are few savings to be made by dropping one of them in a bundled services context.  He believes that consumers will change their behaviour, but that this will result in market share shifts, not demand shortages.

And finally…

Here’s a Think Femtocell interview with - er, me.

Femtocell market update for week of 6 October 2008

Verizon CTO talks about femtocell plans

Mark Wegleitner revealed some of Verizon’s thinking on femtocells in a recent interview with Telephony Online…

“On femtocells and dual-mode phones: We’re planning for trial of femtocells. Both had obstacles. In one case, the femtocell cost was a problem. In other case, the availability of dual-mode phones was a problem. Both of those will be overcome. We look at femtocells right now as a desirable solution but mostly for coverage purposes, not for additional feature capability. If a customer wants to cover a spot in their home, for example, femtocells are a solution. It isn’t necessarily dirt cheap to do that, but on the whole, there are circumstances where that would makes some sense. In the dual-mode phone case, you can get a little more into the feature world, and you get coverage as well, but you’ve got to have the phone, and that’s an obstacle in some cases.”

“[Femtocells] might be [a way to add connected home features] some day…You might be able to get into a little more in the home networking world…I could in theory make EVDO…or LTE a part of a home networking environment. We’ve always had a vision of home networking that involved more than just [coax] or even WiFi.”

Kineto gets $15.5 million for femtocell push

Kineto Wireless has raised an additional $15.5 million to support its femtocell development efforts.  The round included funding from Motorola, one of Kineto’s femtocell partners.  NEC (Kineto’s other major femtocell OEM partner) made a strategic investment in Kineto last month.

Femtocells in Convergence World

Femtocells feature heavily in September’s issue of Convergence World.  IEC President, John Janowiak, asks “who needs femtocells“, and ip.access CEO Steve Mallinson gives some of the answers in a Q&A session.  Steve also explains how femtocells fit within the connected home.

PC World reports the UMA vs. femtocells debate

The UMA camp claims that interference will make femtocells unsuitable for use in dense areas, but Femto Forum chairman Simon Saunders counters that UMA’s use of unlicensed spectrum is increasingly not scalable.  “The more success you have, the more problems you have with interference…With licensed spectrum that isn’t the case.  Each and every femtocell is under the full control of the operator.  No interference is actually possible without the operator being in full control of managing that.”  Nice argument - shame about the grammar :-)

Bundled service offerings - would you like femtocells with that, sir?

O2 is giving subscribers one year of free 8 Mbps DSL when they sign up for the MNO’s standard mobile broadband service.  This type of bundling fits well with the femtocell concept, especially in light of recent consumer research by Motorola indicating that many people would want to buy a femtocell from their broadband provider rather their mobile network operator (see Femtocell Market update for week of 23 June 2008).

Martin Sauter takes things a step further on his WirelessMoves blog.  He believes that “femtos packaged together in a single box with WiFi and DSL/cable access sold by a converged fixed/mobile operator will best sell in a bundle which also includes mobile devices, pre-configured applications on them that can access resources in the home network, a media server at home and some IPTV.”  Martin also reflects on femtocells in the connected home, following a discussion with ip.access’ Thierry Samama.

Mobiles phones a risk to air safety?

“Could a laptop computer or mobile phone have caused Qantas QF72 to plunge near Exmouth in Western Australia this week? The answer is yes,” cries Chris Zombolas - technical director of Australia’s EMC Technologies.  Zombolas reports that experts are not convinced in general about the safety issues of using mobile phones on planes, although none appear to be talking about the Quantas system, which uses picocells to prevent interference.  Zombolas himself believes that picocells “don’t take into account the human factors such as passengers defying the rules”.  He says, “electromagnetic interference is insidious and relaxing the restrictions will send the wrong message to passengers.”

Also this week, a new initiative called “Sense About Science” seeks to dispel some of the myths about mobile phone radiation.  The scientists involved had a look at a range of products claiming to protect us from electromagnetic fields, and concluded that they exploited people’s fears, were unnecessary and generally did not do what they promised.

In other news…

Femtocell market update for week of 29 September 2008

Maxis plans femtocell trial

Maxis, Malaysia’s leading mobile operator, plans to trial femtocells by year end.  Head of Radio Technologies, Denis Seek Kwai Yin, told the Femtocells Asia 2008 conference in Kuala Lumpur that Maxis is interested in using femtocells to implement home zone tariffs and location tracking services such as intruder alert.

Ericsson & Tatara collaborate on CDMA-1X femtocell

Ericsson has so far steered clear of the mainstream (WCDMA) femtocell market.  Following its foray into GSM femtocells, Ericsson is now collaborating with Tatara on a CDMA-1x system.  The press release says that the solution “combines Ericsson’s IMS Core Network infrastructure with a SIP-based femtocell and the Tatara Convergence Server”.  It’s not clear exactly who supplies the femtocell AP, but it’s quite possibly neither Ericsson nor Tatara.

Femtocells at WiMAX World 2008

Unstrung says it expect US cable operator Comcast to launch WiMAX femtocells during the second half of 2009, following upbeat comments on femtocells by senior VP, Dave Williams back in June.   This time nobody from Comcast is officially saying anything.

Motorola sees WiMAX picocells, but says the jury’s out on femto.  Talking to GigaOM at WiMAX World, Motorola’s director of global strategy, Richard Keith, said he expects carrier-owned microcells and picocells to be part of WiMAX networks.  He was less sure about femtocells.

But some vendors are already pursuing WiMAX femtocells.  Fujitsu has released a white paper entitled “Achieving Cost-Effective Broadband Coverage with WiMAX Micro, Pico and Femto Base Stations,” and at the same time has launched a mobile WiMAX SoC for small base stations.   The Fujitsu femto solution supports up to 10 users.

Juni were also displaying a WiMAX femtocell at WiMAX World.

Femtocells vs. repeaters

In this article, repeater manufacturer Wilson Electronics spreads some misinformation about femtocells, and encourages consumers to look into repeaters instead.   The Wilson homepage has a wide selection from $330 upwards (so much for repeaters being cheaper than femtocells) but you do need to lay cables all over your house (and ideally up on the roof).

Strategy Analytics sees drive towards smaller basestations

Strategy Analytics believes the migration to 3G+ and 4G networks will see a move toward smaller basestations.  The penetration of micro base stations will increase to 29% through 2013, but the largest growth in shipments will come from picocells and femtocells.   Femtocells will account for 84% of total base station shipments in 2013.

Mobile broadband - a femtocell opportunity

Strategy Analytics says that 50% of new laptops will come with embedded mobile broadband by 2010, prompting David Chambers to comment on the need for femtocells to provide an indoor signal.  But will people will use mobile broadband at home instead of WiFi?  In fact, there’s growing evidence that this is happening.  Strand Consult reported this week that 84% of mobile broadband subscribers in Austria use their mobile broadband connection at home (while only 14% are using it on public transport).  This follows a recent Ofcom report which found that 75% of UK mobile broadband subscribers use the service at home.

Picocells & femtocells for enterprises

RadioFrame Networks’ Mark Keenan believes that picocells and femtocells may help operators improve their ability to target SME customers.   Think Femtocell agrees.

T-Mobile femtocell (not)

Although described here as a “femtocell(?)”, in fact the T-Mobile Share Dock isn’t one.   It’s a WiFi Access Point that uses a HSPA dongle (rather than a fixed broadband link) to provide an internet connection.  So it’s sort of the opposite of a femtocell.

Should femtocell operators mandate their own broadband?

Think Femtocell thinks not.

Europeans cut the cord

According to a European Commission study, 39% of households in Eastern Europe have only mobile phone subscriptions, with no fixed line phone.  The figure for Western Europe is 20%.  Cell phones first outnumbered humans in Europe in 2006.

Ryanair

Seasoned travellers say ‘No’ to mobile phones on planes

Accordingly to a poll by Wanderlust Magazine, 75% of its readership of “seasoned travellers” are strongly opposed to the use of mobile phones on planes.

Apparently they see it as “an interruption of ‘me time’”.  So that probably tells you something about Wanderlust readers.

Carriers are increasingly concerned about network capacity for data

In the past six months, carriers have begun capping monthly unlimited data plans at 5 GB.  Currently, only about 2% to 5% of wireless users exceed that limit, but the number may double in the next year according to Craig Mathias, founder of consultancy firm Farpoint Group.  Carriers are also starting to encourage developers to create applications that use less bandwidth, and T-Mobile USA will even prohibit developers from offering free applications that use more than 15 MB per user per month.  This suggests that “truly unlimited data at home” might be a compelling femtocell marketing proposition.

In other news…

And finally…ip.access has been named the UK’s number 1 technology company!

Sadly, this is an erroneous report on our entry in the Sunday Times Microsoft Tech Track 100 list.